NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
Africa Weekly #80&81 | Africa in the Indian Ocean and Conflict in Sudan |

NIAS Africa Team
3 October 2023
Photo Source: Indian Navy via AP

Africa Weekly
#80&81, Vol. 2, No. 35 & 36

COMMENTARY
Africa in the Indian Ocean region: Explained
Many traditional players—Australia, France, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—continue expanding their presence in the Western Indian Ocean. Geopolitical significance has led to the emergence of new players—China, the UAE, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. All of these players are investing in Indian Ocean countries economically, politically, and militarily, which will impact the region’s security environment on both traditional and non-traditional lines.
Anu Maria Joseph

The Eastern and Southern coast of Africa is one of the sub-regions of the Western Indian Ocean region. African countries from Egypt, Djibouti, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Tanzania and Mozambique in the east to South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia in the South lie along the Western Indian Ocean region. Islands of Seychelles, Madagascar, Mauritius and Comoros are additionally part of the region. Rich in bio reserves and minerals and proximity to several trade routes make the region crucial. The maritime route connects the Middle East and Africa to Southeast Asia, East Asia, Europe and the Americas. 

Geopolitical importance
First, the region is rich in bio and mineral reserves. The Western Indian Ocean region is rich in mineral reserves- Egypt (oil and gas), Sudan (gold and oil), Ethiopia (gold and platinum), Somalia (Uranium), Kenya (gold), Tanzania (gold and diamond), Mozambique (coal and gold), South Africa (gold, platinum, diamond and Uranium). Additionally, the region is characterised by vast biodiversity in terms of species and ecosystems. More than 2,200 fish species, 300 hard coral species, ten mangrove species, 12 seagrass species, 1,000 seaweed species and hundreds of sponges, molluscs, and crabs can be found in the coastal and marine environments of the region.

Second, proximity to strategic trade routes. Djibouti and Eritrea are positioned directly at the Bab al-Mandab Strait near the Suez Canal which flows along the Horn of Africa and connects Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea. The region also hosts the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique which is a key trading route for goods transiting the Cape of Good Hope to the Middle East and Asia. 

Third, naval bases. The US has its key military base in Diego Garcia which is used as a launchpad for Air Force missions in the Middle East. Nearly 5,000 US personnel are based on the island. China has built a 300-metre-long base in Djibouti which could accommodate large vessels including aircraft carriers and submarines which it presents as a “logistic facility.” France has a naval presence in Djibouti and the Island of La Reunion with a bid to defend its “overseas territories in the Indian Ocean region.” Besides, India, Japan and the UN have been carrying out missions combating piracy off the coast of Somalia. Surveillance and reconnaissance missions and a strong security profile around the Western Indian Ocean region are essential for external actors.

Fourth, proximity to Africa’s leading economies. The region has a proximity to Africa’s relatively stable and leading economies of Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa. Egypt has a GDP of USD 477 billion; the highest in Africa along with Nigeria. Its economic sectors range from tourism to agriculture to textiles and petroleum. Tanzania's GDP is USD 75.71 billion, driven by tourism, agriculture, and mining industries. Kenya's IT, innovation sector and business-friendly approach contribute to the country's economic prosperity, with a GDP of USD 113 billion. Ethiopia's GDP of USD 127 billion is driven by a thriving agriculture and manufacturing sector. South Africa's GDP is USD 406 billion, making it a financial and industrial powerhouse. Investors prefer the East African region over its favourable economic development, political stability and large market of approximately 120 million people. French, Indian and English diaspora in African countries including Tanzania, South Africa and Kenya always attracted foreign investment and paved the way for pragmatic diplomatic engagements.

Major issues
1. Territorial Disputes
Territorial disputes in the Indian Ocean extend from Maritime boundary disputes to control of Islands. A dispute between Mauritius and the British government over the Chagos Archipelago after the decolonization of Mauritius has been ongoing since 1975. Another maritime boundary dispute over 160,000 square kilometres of waters between the two East African countries- Somalia and Kenya has been continuing since 2014.

France has territorial disputes with Comoros and Madagascar. It has expressed interest in co-managing disputed islands and their surrounding waters with Madagascar, while its dispute with Comoros remains a challenge in the bilateral relationship. 

The disputes are unlikely to escalate, leading to significant diplomatic and military tensions.

2. Climate change issues
According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Coral Reefs in island countries in the Western Indian Ocean are under high threat. According to the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria, four of the sub-regions-East and South Madagascar and the Comoros, reefs were assessed as “critically endangered.” Increasing seawater temperatures due to climate change is a threat to coral reefs in the region. On the East African coast from South Africa to Kenya, reefs were classified as “vulnerable” to collapse. Overfishing, altering the ecology of reefs and promoting algal takeover pose the greatest threat.

East African countries near the Indian Ocean region including Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia have been experiencing extreme weather conditions including severe drought and severe flooding for the past four years. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 7.1 million people in Somalia face acute food insecurity and three million are internally displaced due to climate change-induced crisis. 

3. Piracy
The International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Center (PRC) reported that there weren't any piracy attacks in the Horn of Africa in 2022. However, the IMB PRC warned that Somali pirates continued to possess the potential to carry out attacks in the Somali basin and wider Indian Ocean region. The naval units from China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea and the US operate in the region against piracy.

4. Terrorism, drug and weapon smuggling
In the western Indian Ocean, the eastern coast of Africa has emerged as a transhipment hub for drugs and small arms. The movement of drugs and terrorism are connected. Since 2016, regional maritime security forces have intercepted Iranian weapons for al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia.

Al Shabaab insurgents in Somalia do not directly threaten security at sea. However, the conflict undermines the government’s capacity to protect Somalia’s territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Moreover, Al Shabaab has been involved in maritime smuggling operations to fund its operations and to supply its forces with arms and ammunition. 

5. The proliferation of external naval deployments undermining regional stability
In recent years, the Western Indian Ocean has witnessed growing militarization with the presence of external players including the US, China, France and India owing to the region’s geopolitical importance. For Africa, infrastructure demands and capacity deficiencies in ensuring the safety of their maritime domain is the reason behind external assistance. So far, the presence of China, India, the US and France has not been a source of concern for African countries in the region, although there remain potential geopolitical rivalries. If the presence of external actors in the region were to be reduced, it would weaken efforts to secure shipping lanes and patrol Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). On the other hand, if there is an increase in external military operations, it may undermine regional stability leading to increased tensions.

(The commentary is the first draft of an essay aimed to be published shortly.)


COMMENTARY
Sudan: Escalated fighting between rival factions and its implications
The current state of affairs in Sudan is highly disconcerting, with escalating violence that threatens to plunge the country into civil war. Such a scenario could have grave repercussions for the country's democratic aspirations as well as the safety and prosperity of its people.
Jerry Franklin A

On 19 September, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) reported that more than 1,200 children have died in Sudanese refugee camps from suspected measles and starvation; thousands more including newborns, are at risk of dying before the end of the year. Additionally, the agency stated that every month in Sudan, more than 50,000 children need to be treated for malnutrition.

On 18 September, for the first time since the conflict began more than five months ago, fighting in Sudan reached the seaside city of Port Sudan where the Sudanese army battled with tribal militias, the Forces of the Eastern Sudan Parties and Movements Alliance.

On 17 September, clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resulted in the burning of the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC) tower, located in the heart of Khartoum.

On 14 September, the commander of Rapid Support Forces (RSF), General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, threatened to install a government in regions under their control if his adversaries in the army established a government in Port Sudan.

On 13 September, the UN's special envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, stated that he would resign from his position after being declared unwelcomed by the military administration in the war-torn region for more than three months.

Increased fighting in terms of intensity and geography
Since mid-April, when hostilities broke out between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under the direction of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, open warfare has shaken Sudan.  Khartoum has become an urban battle zone as a result of the fighting. The military retaliated by bombing the residential neighbourhoods of Greater Khartoum after RSF forces seized civilian residences and transformed them into operating bases. According to rights groups and the UN, the fighting in the western Darfur area has turned into interethnic violence, with the RSF and affiliated Arab militias assaulting ethnic African populations. Heavy artillery and airstrikes were deployed in the city as the army and the RSF continued to battle for control of Khartoum. The armed fighting between the warring sides intensified as it destroyed several iconic landmarks. The Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC), the Ministry of Justice, and the Sudanese Standards and Metrology Organization in the Al Mugran neighbourhood were destroyed by fire during the recent violence in the capital. The Sudanese army engaged in combat with tribal militants devoted to the Beja tribe's leader Sheba Darar in Port Sudan. This was the first violence in the important coastal city in more than five months of conflict. Government representatives and representatives of the United Nations, who have evacuated from the country's war-torn capital Khartoum, are accommodated in Port Sudan, which is the only city with an operational airport. 

Struggle between the warring parties for legitimacy
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) commander, Al-Burhan, recently set up a base in Port Sudan, the capital of the Red Sea state, after departing the General Command of the Armed Forces' headquarters in Khartoum. Many federal government entities have now moved their operations to Port Sudan. The army, together with supporting political groups, reportedly intends to set up an interim administration with Port Sudan as its capital. As a retaliation, the leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, has threatened to proclaim a new government with Khartoum as its capital. Besides, SAF leader al-Burhan had carried out regional visits to South Sudan, Qatar, and Eritrea, calling for political and humanitarian support. Meanwhile, RSF’s special envoy, Yousif Izzat, met with the African Union chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, to discuss RSF’s vision to end the conflict. RSF firmly opposes the Sudanese Army’s effort to represent Sudan on the international front and claim legitimacy. Additionally, the assets in the US of Abdelrahim Hamdan Dagalo, the deputy and brother of Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo have been blocked, while Abdul Rahman Juma, an RSF commander in West Darfur, has had his visa suspended. Both were punished for human rights violations, notably crimes committed in Sudan's West Darfur area. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Juma was sanctioned for ordering the death of West Darfur Governor Khamis Abdallah Abakar on 15 June. Due to US sanctions, the RSF faces an issue with legitimacy and its attempt to gain political credibility is now in peril. Legitimacy is crucial to be politically relevant and the current sanctions by the US pose a setback to RSF’s effort to establish international legitimacy. Additionally, the Sudanese army attempts to gain firm support by spreading operations from the capital to the eastern half of Sudan, where most eastern tribes support the army. 

International efforts to resolve the conflict and its failure to reach a long-term truce
Several international actors, including the US, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab League, have attempted to establish a ceasefire in the region to de-escalate the conflict, however, they failed to sustain it. Since the commencement of the conflict, both parties have routinely breached several ceasefires led by the US and Saudi. In August, the RSF's leader, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, made a 10-point plan calling for new negotiations to end the conflict. However, the Sudanese army rejected the proposal, declaring that they would not negotiate a deal with traitors, and denied appeals for a cease-fire. 

Consequences of the continued cycle of fighting
The majority of the violence has been concentrated in Khartoum and the western Darfur region, with Port Sudan and the east remaining free from violence. However, the recent violence in Port Sudan poses a threat of violence expanding to other parts of Sudan which could worsen the humanitarian crisis and lead to a prolonged power struggle. According to estimates from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), nearly 5,000 people have died due to the violence. According to UN statistics, more than 4.6 million people have been compelled to evacuate their homes in the four months of conflict. Food supplies are entirely exhausted and humanitarian workers are unable to reach the needy due to conflicts and roadblocks. The humanitarian crisis exacerbates as the conflict worsens, and there is less hope for the long-awaited democratic transition.

The RSF and SAF are competing fiercely for recognition and validation. The army has attempted to characterize the fight as a confrontation between the state and a rebel group rather than a combat between two sections of the security forces. US sanctions against the RSF seem to support the army's narrative. The army could be less receptive to peace negotiations due to the sanctions against the paramilitary. The SAF has been using the US sanctions on the RSF to turn international opinion against the RSF and hence to seek legitimacy. The constant efforts to establish regional, national, and international legitimacy by both the warring sides may result in a full-fledged civil war shortly.

(Part of this commentary has been previously published as part of NIAS-IPRI-KAS Conflict Weekly.)


AFRICA IN BRIEF
20 September-3 October
By Anu Maria Joseph

SUDAN
SAF leader warns of spillover of conflict to neighbouring countries
On 22 September, speaking at the UNGA, Sudan’s transitional military leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan urged the international community to designate Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allies as terrorist groups. Al-Burhan additionally warned of potential spillover of fighting into the neighbouring countries. He also mentioned that his party is open to peace talks and wanted to "put an end to this war and to alleviate the suffering of our people.” Conflict in Sudan which began in April has killed thousands and displaced millions. Both warring parties are accused of carrying out human rights violations during the fighting. Both sides have shown little commitment to ceasefire efforts initiated by international and regional actors. Recently, the fighting spread to Port Sudan after RSF announced the establishment of a parallel government based in Khartoum. (“Sudan army chief warns war could spill over into neighbours,” BBC, 22 September)

SOUTH SUDAN
President Kiir visits Russia
On 28 September, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir visited Russia and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Euronews, the leaders have agreed to expand their ties in the sectors of energy, trade and oil. They also discussed political and security issues in South Sudan, which is planning its first presidential elections in 2024. Putin stated that Russian investments in oil refineries in South Sudan would bolster bilateral ties. The visit comes against the backdrop of Russia and the West continuing to reach out to African countries seeking support in the war in Ukraine. (“New allies for Russia? Putin meets South Sudan’s leader to discuss closer ties,” Euronews, 28 September 2023)

DJIBOUTI
Restores diplomatic ties with Iran
On 22 September, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the restoration of diplomatic ties with Djibouti after seven years. The announcement came after the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of both countries met at the UNGA held in New York. Djibouti joined Saudi Arabia in cutting ties with Iran in 2016 after Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Iran following the execution of Saudi Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement read: “The two governments have agreed to further develop friendly relations between the two countries based on mutual respect for sovereignty, equality, mutual benefit, and peaceful co-existence.” (“Djibouti and Iran restore diplomatic ties,” BBC, 22 September 2023)

ETHIOPIA
Drone strikes in Amhara
On 20 September, BBC reported that dozens of civilians were killed in a drone strike in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. A resident of the region told BBC that at least 30 people were killed during the attack. In the town of Dembecha, at least 18 people were killed in a similar drone strike. Months of Fighting has been going on in the Amhara region between the federal government and the Amhara regional forces, Fanp. According to the UN, more than 180 people have died in the conflict. The conflict erupted after the federal government announced its decision to integrate regional forces into the federal forces. (“Civilians killed in Ethiopia drone strikes - residents," BBC, 20 September 2023)

KENYA
Establishes diplomatic ties with Haiti
On 21 September, Kenya and Haiti established diplomatic ties. Haitian and Kenyan Ministers of Foreign Affairs announced the exchange of ambassadors. The development comes after Kenya offered 1,000 police officers to Haiti, part of an international assistance force to fight gang violence. (“Kenya and Haiti establish diplomatic ties," BBC, 21 September 20203)

RWANDA
Paul Kagame announces decision to run for fourth term
On 20 September, Rwandan President Paul Kagame announced his decision to run for a fourth term next year, extending his presidency to almost three decades. Kagame stated: “I am happy with the confidence that Rwandans have in me.” Kagame has been leading the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) ever since it came to power after the genocide in 1994. According to the Rwandan Election Commission, in 2017, Kagame won the presidential elections receiving 99 per cent of the votes. Human Rights Watch (HRW) had claimed that the elections took place where free speech was limited. Kagame was also criticised for cracking down on the opposition. (“Rwanda's President Paul Kagame confirms fourth-term bid,” BBC, 20 September 2023)

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
President calls for the immediate withdrawal of UN mission
On 21 September, Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshosekedi called on the UN peacekeeping mission to withdraw its troops by the end of the year. The UN mission, MONUSCO, began its mission in 2010 pledging to fight insurgency in eastern DRC. However, its presence became increasingly unpopular after it failed to quell the increasing insurgency. Tshisekedi during the UNGA stated: “It is to be deplored that peacekeeping missions deployed for 25 years … have failed to cope with the rebellions and armed conflicts; “This is why … I instructed the government of the republic to begin discussions with the UN authorities for an accelerated withdrawal of MONUSCO … by bringing forward the start of this progressive withdrawal from December 2024 to December 2023.” (“DR Congo President Tshisekedi seeks withdrawal of UN peacekeepers this year,” Al Jazeera, 21 September 2023)

GUINEA
Coup leader’s UNGA address; calls on West to stop “lecturing us”
On 22 September, addressing the UNGA, Guinea’s military leader, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya commented that the Western model of democracy imposed on Africa does not work in the continent. He stated that Africa is suffering from “a model of governance that has been imposed on us and is facing “trouble adapting to our reality.” He added: “It is time to stop lecturing us and stop treating us with condescension like children.” Guinea is among the African countries which went through military coups across West Africa in 2021. (“Stop lecturing us, Guinea junta leader tells West,” BBC, 22 September 2023)

NIGER
Ousted President Bazom files appeal to ECOWAS for release
On 21 September, ousted President Mohamed Bazoum appealed to the ECOWAS’s court for his release. An appeal filed on 18 September demanded Bazoum’s release and reinstatement as president against his “arbitrary arrest” and “violation of freedom of movement” following the coup in July. Bazom’s lawyer Seydou Diagne stated: “We request... given the violation of political rights, that the state of Niger be ordered to immediately restore constitutional order by handing over power to President Bazoum, who must continue to exercise it until the end of his mandate.” (“Niger's ousted leader petitions Ecowas court for help,” BBC, 21 September 2023)

France withdraws its ambassador and troops over souring relations
On 25 September, the Niger junta banned French aircraft from entering the country's airspace. The Agency for Air Navigation Safety in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA) stated that Niger's airspace was open to all commercial flights except to those chartered by France. On 26 September, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris will withdraw its ambassador and end all military cooperation with Niger. He added that French troops will withdraw in “the months to come.” Macron stated: "France has decided to withdraw its ambassador. In the next hours, our ambassador and several diplomats will return to France. Nearly 1,500 French soldiers are present in Niger assisting in to fight against Islamsit militants. Following Macrons’ announcement, the military junta stated: "This Sunday we celebrate a new step towards the sovereignty of Niger.” France-Niger relations soured following the military coup in July and France refused to recognise the coup leadership. (“Niger's military bans French aircraft from its skies,” BBC, 25 September 2023; “France to pull troops and ambassador from Niger,” BBC, 25 September 2023)

BURKINA FASO
Junta says it thwarted a coup attempt
On 28 September, the Burkinabe military government stated that the country's security and intelligence services thwarted a coup attempt on 26 September. The junta commented that unnamed military officers organised to destabilise the country. Reuters quoted the junta: They had "the dark intention of attacking the institutions of the republic and plunging our country in chaos.” Burkina Faso is marking one year of the military takeover on 29 September. In 2022, President Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power amid growing Islamist insurgency in the country. However, the junta struggled to address the insurgency after the withdrawal of the UN and French troops. Previously, he had promised to hold elections by July 2024. Before the coup attempt, Captain Traoré stated that he was "determined to safely lead the transition [to democracy] despite adversity and the various manoeuvres to stop our inexorable march towards assumed sovereignty.” (“Burkina Faso junta says it foiled coup attempt,” BBC, 28 September 2023)

MOROCCO
IMF approves USD 1.3 billion in loans for disaster management
On 29 September, BBC reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a USD 1.3 billion loan to assist Morocco in its natural disaster management sector. The announcement comes three weeks after the earthquake that killed more than 3,000 people in the country. The Moroccan government is being criticised for its poor handling of the earthquake on 8 September in the High Atlas Mountains. The IMF stated that the 18-month loan would assist the country’s climate action by tackling "climate vulnerabilities,” "resilience against climate change,” and seizing "opportunities from decarbonisation.” ("Morocco gets $1.3bn disaster fund from IMF," BBC, 29 September 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine promises to establish “grain hub” 
On 20 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Kenyan President William Ruto and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Zelensky promised to establish a “grain hub” in the Kenyan city of Mombasa. Meanwhile, with Ramaphosa, Zelensky discussed “the way forward on the peace initiative.” They also discussed the revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative following Russia's withdrawal. Zelensky informed Ramaphosa that Ukraine was trying to establish alternative routes to supply grains. Zelensky stated: "Several ships with grain have already successfully passed through these routes despite the difficult situation.” Kenya remains one of the major supporters of Ukraine in the war; however, South Africa has been taking a neutral stance. (“Ukraine and Kenya plan 'grain hub' for East Africa to help tackle food insecurity,” BBC, 20 September 2023)


About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Jerry Franklin is a Postgraduate Scholar at Madras Christian College, Chennai. 


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NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

King Charles's US Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis 

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories
November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies
February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?
February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta