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NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
NIAS Africa Team
|
Africa Weekly #40, Vol. 1, No. 40
29 November 2022
IN BRIEF
A war and truce between Ethiopia and Tigray
Tigrayans are divided on the effectiveness of the peace deal as a particular section consider the deal a surrender while the others consider it as a signal that Abiy Ahmed would return to his peaceful ways. Only time can tell whether the deal is genuine or an act to deal with the concerned parties’ immediate predicaments vis-à-vis the war.
S Shaji
Government of Ethiopia and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dissident group from Tigray, a northern state in Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa, signed a Peace Agreement on 2 November 2022, which was brokered by the African Union (AU). Accordingly, both the sides agreed for the permanent cessation of hostilities. The Agreement, which was signed on November 2nd in Pretoria, South Africa, is considered to be a significant step in ending the civil war which broke out in 2020. In fact, there has been huge criticism from various quarters from across the world that there is significant digression from the path of democracy in Ethiopia in recent times, a State which was applauded for its democratic turn under the leadership Abiy Ahmed, a few years ago. Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian President, once a favourite political figure in the Western discourse, began to face confrontation for his role in the Tigray civil war which killed and displaced thousands.
From various news reports, it is understood that the agreement has put forth various clauses which are promising but seem overambitious. For instance, the deal suggests that TPLF would agree to the previous constitutional order and would disarm itself and would also provide adequate representation to Tigrayan population in employment and education. In other words, the deal envisions the restoration of the Ethiopian government’s constitutional authority in Tigray region. In addition, the deal also includes provisions for access to Tigrayans to obtain civilian services, which were denied to them in the last two years, mainly through the blockade that the Ethiopian government had imposed on the people from the region. It is also reported that 13 million people would require humanitarian assistance, most notably in terms of food and medicine supply. It is further agreed that the federal government would facilitate the return of several thousand displaced families. In addition, the implementation of the deal is to be monitored by a group of experts (around 10), appointed by AU. Of course, the Government of Eritrea is not party to the deal though they have ongoing feuds with TPLF. The issues in Western Tigray which remain unresolved are also not covered in the deal. The truce also speaks about introducing a ‘Comprehensive National Transitional Justice Policy’ to deal with justice and accountability issues. In addition, the Federal Government of Ethiopia has promised to remove the tag linked to TPLF as a terrorist organization.
If one looks at the background of violence in Ethiopia, like many other conflicts in Africa, it is closely linked to historical and ethnic fault lines and ethnic nationalism. On the ethnic front, Oromos and Amharas constitute nearly 60 per cent of the Ethiopian population whereas Tigrayans constitute less than 10 per cent of the population. At certain points in the past, Tigrayan had a substantial presence in the government, bureaucracy and so on, under the notion of ethnic federalism that came into existence in 1991. The capture of power by the majority group - Oromos and Amharas, in Ethiopian politics substantially reduced the power and representation of Tigray groups, which led to the emergence of Tigrayan ethnic nationalism which took a violent turn in 2020. In 2020, Tigray regional elections led to the war, with the Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopian Government questioning the validity of electoral processes in Tigray region. In the said election, according to the electoral officials, TPLF won more than 98 per cent votes. This was the time when Abiy Ahmed refused to hold general elections in the country citing Covid- 19 related restrictions. Thus, the conflict over the validity and the timings of the elections led to the Ethiopian troops, along with Amhara militia attacking the Tigray region in the western part of Tigray while Eritrean troops occupied the northern region.
Africa observers point out certain problems in the peace deal. For instance, the deal has not included the Eritrean Government, which is also a party to the conflict, though certain clauses indirectly imply dealing with forces inimical to both parties involved in the deal (the Ethiopian government and TPLF). Second, the deal does not include the Government of Tigray, but only the TPLF. Third, the deal does not talk about a broad monitoring, verification, and compliance mechanism to supervise the implementation of the deal. The mechanism, envisaged in the deal, is restricted to a committee of just 10 eminent persons, appointed by AU and reports to the latter, which is headed by Olesegun Obasanjo, the former Nigerian President. In other words, international actors such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (a prominent aid partner) are completely overlooked in this connection. Similarly, justice and accountability mechanisms are weak; a broad form in terms of a comprehensive transitional justice policy at national level is proposed which is not mandated to be supervised by prominent international human rights organisations.
Of late, it is also reported that Tigrayans are divided on the effectiveness of the peace deal as a particular section consider the deal a surrender while the others consider it as a signal that Abiy Ahmed would return to his peaceful ways (of pre-2020). If the Guerrilla warfare continues in the region even after the truce, it can weaken the perceived peace dividend. Several thousands of people in Tigray were subjected to unprecedented violence to the extent that their very survival itself has been at stake. Therefore, as a way out, the truce has been agreed upon. From an Ethiopian standpoint, it requires the support of the West and wants to avoid the interventions of outside parties in the internal conflicts of the country. Only time can tell whether the deal is genuine or an act to deal with the concerned parties’ immediate predicaments vis-à-vis the war. However, one can emphatically assume that inclusive policies and genuine federalism that addresses the concerns of various ethnic groups is the route to resolve conflicts in a multi-ethnic State like Ethiopia in the long run.
Ethiopia-Tigray ceasefire, and the complex roadmap for peace
The Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement is a delicate opportunity to consolidate a permanent ceasefire and long-term stability in Ethiopia, though initial steps appear complex.
Anu Maria Joseph
On 2 November, the Ethiopian government, and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) agreed to a permanent ceasefire ending two years of conflict that left half a million people dead, thousands displaced and nearly nine million in urgent need of humanitarian aid. The peace talks were brokered by the African Union under mediation of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in South Africa.
On 13 November, military leaders from Ethiopia and the Tigray region held another meeting in Nairobi, where they agreed to unhindered humanitarian access to the region and to form a joint disarmament committee.
The AU Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat said the deal is a “unique opportunity towards the restoration of peace.” Obasanjo said that both the parties have agreed on an “orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament” along with “restoration of law and order,” “unilateral access to humanitarian supplies,” and “restoration of services.” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said: “The commitment to peace remains steadfast and our commitment to collaborating for the implementation of the agreement is equally strong. The TPLF said: “Ultimately, the fact that we have reached a point where we have now signed an agreement speaks volumes about the readiness on the part of the two sides to lay the past behind them to chart a new path of peace.” The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the agreement, and his spokesperson said: “It is very much a welcome first step, which we hope can start to bring some solace to the millions of Ethiopian civilians that have really suffered during the conflict.” The US Department of State spokesperson said: “The African Union’s announcement of the signing of a cessation of hostilities between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front represents an important step towards peace.”
Four takeaways of the ceasefire agreement
The following are the major takeaways of the ceasefire agreement:
First, a permanent cessation of hostilities. Following the agreement, the Ethiopian government and the TPLF agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities, including acts of violence, airstrikes, obstruction, “hostile propaganda, rhetoric and hate speech.” In addition, both the parties agreed not to intrigue with any external forces hostile to either of the parties as well as agreed on the protection of civilians who have been affected by the violence.
Second, Disarmament. Both the parties agreed on a single defence force for Ethiopia and on TPLF entering a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programme. Besides, TPLF has agreed to a full disarmament, including light weapons within 30 days. In addition, Ethiopian forces will return to their former military base in Mekelle, Tigray regional capital.
Third, restoration of federal authority and political inclusion of Tigray. Based on the agreement, a new interim administration will be appointed for Tigray until elections after both sides agree on the restoration of Ethiopia’s federal government in Tigray. TPLF also committed to “cease all attempts of bringing an unconstitutional change of government.” Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has agreed to an inclusive representation of Tigrayans at the centre addressing the fundamental issue of ethnic marginalisation.
Four, restoration of humanitarian aid and services. Since the conflict began in November 2021, the Tigray region was deprived of basic communication and essential services. Besides, nearly 5 million people were at the brink of famine after food and humanitarian aid to the region were constantly blocked.
Now, both sides have agreed to abide by international humanitarian law. The federal government has committed to work with humanitarian agencies to allow unhindered access to aid in Tigray. The government has also agreed to facilitate restoration of essential services and the return and repatriation of the displaced.
What does the ceasefire mean?
The sudden ceasefire is a significant achievement, a hope to end the two-year deadly conflict. The successful peace deal is an achievement for the African Union and its objective of ‘African solution to African problems.’ However, achieving a permanent ceasefire in Tigray won't be easy.
The conflict is rooted in a long-standing ethnopolitical rift, violent regime change, failed truce, and a large humanitarian crisis which makes the ceasefire agreement seem increasingly volatile. The ceasefire was reached on the sidelines of intense pressure by Ethiopian forces and Eritrean forces on TPLF and the international community on the Ethiopian government. Besides, the uncertainty over unaddressed issues and the critical question of how and when the key provisions of the agreement would be implemented on the ground remain unclear.
The agreement makes no explicit mention of Eritreans or forces from Ethiopia's neighbourhood that have fought alongside the Ethiopian army. Though the agreement states that the Ethiopian army will protect the country from “foreign incursion,” many are sceptical about whether Eritrea, TPLF’s sworn enemy, would abide. In addition, political issues including territorial disputes between Tigray and neighbouring Amhara region remain unresolved. Lack of trust between the warring parties is challenging. Furthermore, uncertainty persists over the AU’s lack of effective mechanisms to oversee and enforce the peace process. The question of implementation of key provisions in the deal including Tigray’s interim administration, elections, distribution of humanitarian aid and resumption of blocked services remain unresolved. In sum, the agreement is a delicate opportunity to consolidate a permanent ceasefire and long-term stability in Ethiopia, though the initial steps appear complex.
(*Parts of this commentary were previously published in an earlier Conflict Weekly issue)
AFRICA IN BRIEF
22 November - 28 November
Anu Maria Joseph and Apoorva Sudhakar
SOUTH SUDAN
County commissioner orchestrated gangrape, says UN panel
On 28 November, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said that it had reasons to believe that the Unity state’s county commissioner oversaw the gangrape of several women and girls at a military camp. A Commission member said sexual violence related to conflict resulted from impunity and that it had become systematic. The Commission quotes witnesses who said the commissioner had planned the sexual violence and his deputy carried it forward; patterns similar to the above offence were observed in other places. However, the South Sudan Information Minister dismissed these claims accusing the UN officials of falsely reporting the above to make money. (“UN panel accuses South Sudan officials of overseeing gang rapes,” Al Jazeera, 28 November 2022)
ETHIOPIA
Measles outbreak hit Oromia region
On 23 November, residents in the Oromia region of Ethiopia said that children have been dying from a measles outbreak for the past few months. They say that blackades caused by the ongoing conflict have hampered medical facilities reaching the region. The federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have been fighting a deadly insurgency in western insurgency. In October, the UN reported that the humanitarian situation in the Oromia region “remains complex.” The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said: “Access, security and resources remain challenging to reach the affected population.” (“Ethiopia rebel stronghold hit by measles outbreak,” BBC, 23 November 2022)
AU mediators visits Tigray
On 24 November, BBC reported that the African Union mediators are visiting the war-devastated Tigray region as part of their latest effort to implement a peace deal signed between the federal government and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Though a peace deal has been signed between the warring parties, the BBC report says little food, medication and other essentials have reached Tigray. Another issue being the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and the withdrawal of Eritrean forces. The government says the issue of presence of foreign forces will be dealt with when the federal forces are deployed in Tigray borders. (“AU mediators visit war-devastated Tigray,” BBC, 24 November 2022)
SOMALIA
President Mohamud launches anti al-Shabaab TV channel
On 24 November, the state media reported that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inaugurated a new TV channel named Daljir to counter al-Shabab’s propaganda as the government intensifies its media campaign against the group. In October, the Somali government had banned over 500 social media accounts spreading al-Shabab’s ideologies. The information ministry said that the crackdown on al-shabaab linked media was part of “an all-out war” against the group which the president declared in August. (“Somalia launches anti-al-Shabab TV channel,” BBC, 24 November 2022)
Hotel siege by al Shabaab leaves eight dead
On 28 November, security forces ended a siege by al Shabaab of a hotel near the president’s residence in the capital Mogadishu. A police spokesperson said that eight civilians and a policeman had been killed and 60 were rescued. The spokesperson said one of the al Shabaab terrorist blew himself up and security forces killed five after the attack began on 27 November. The environment minister was residing in the hotel; he said the government would not give up the fight against al Shabaab. (“Abdiqani Hassan And Mukelwa Hlatshwayo, “Somali troops overpower militants to end hotel siege,” Reuters, 28 November 2022; “Eight civilians dead as Somalia hotel siege ends,” News24, 28 November 2022)
SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa visits Buckingham palace
On 23 November, King Charles hosted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa as the first state visit of his reign at Buckingham palace. He hailed the cultural and trading links between the UK and South Africa as well as acknowledged the difficult legacy of colonialism. The King said: “We must acknowledge the wrongs which have shaped our past if we are to unlock the power of our common future.” He called for better partnerships which would tackle the “existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss.” In response, Ramaphosa called for improved trade and investment relations with the UK and South Africa and to help the country in dealing with the power outage issue. (“King hails Mandela friendship on South Africa state visit Published,” BBC, 23 November 2022)
NAMIBIA
Statue of German colonial officer taken down
On 23 November, the statue of a controversial German colonial officer Von François was taken down after a successful petition. The statue was erected in 1965 honouring the officer as the city’s founder. Von François was a senior officer in the then colony of South West Africa, current day Namibia. He was the commanding officer during the Hoornkrans massacre which was an operation against the Nama rebellion where at least 80 people were killed. Activist Hildegard Titus, who led the petition to take down the statue said that François had “wrongly been called the founder of Windhoek'' and that he was a symbol of “colonial oppression.” (“Namibia takes down statue of German colonial officer,” BBC, 23 November 2022)
MALAWI
Vice president arrested over corruption allegations
On 25 November, the Anti-Corruption Bureau said it had arrested Vice President Saulos Chilima for allegedly awarding government contracts after accepting money up to USD 280,000 and other items from bidders. The ACB said Chilima had assisted two companies linked to British businessman Zuneth Sattar in securing the contracts. The ACB said it had been investigating Sattar and some public officers for plundering state resources by influencing the contracts via the public procurement system. The development comes after a Financial Times report which said the UK National Crime Agency (NCA) was investigating Sattar for reportedly abusing the public procuring system in Malawi. (“Malawi vice president arrested by anti-corruption bureau,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
Clashes resume despite ceasefire
On 25 November, clashes between the M23 rebel group and the army resumed, two days after a ceasefire was declared by DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, and Uhuru Kenyatta, the former president of Kenya and a mediator. On 24 November, Al Jazeera quoted an M23 spokesperson: “M23 has seen the document on social media … There was nobody in the summit [from M23] so it doesn’t really concern us … Normally when there is a ceasefire, it is between the two warring sides.” (“DRC fighting resumes, M23 say ceasefire deal doesn’t affect them,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)
NIGERIA
At least 130 people kidnapped by gunmen
On 22 November, BBC reported, at least 130 people were kidnapped by gunmen in Nigeria's north-western state of Zamfara. The state's information commissioner said that the gunment on motorcycles raided two regions and abducted women, children and the elderly. He added that the gunmen were using the victims as "human shields" following the ongoing "heavy bombardments" targeting their hideouts. However, separate reports said that the people abducted were farm workers who were busy during the harvesting season. Zamfara is one among the Nigerian States struggling with ransom kidnappings. (“Gunmen kidnap 130 in raids in north-west Nigeria,” BBC, 22 November 2022)
BURKINA FASO
French embassy requests protection after violent protests
On 21 November, the French embassy requested the Burkinabe government for more protection after violent anti-French protests on 18 November. The protests were carried out in front of the French embassy and military base demanding French soldiers to leave. A French embassy letter said: "The events suffered in October and November are susceptible to be repeated in the coming days, if nothing is done." Burkina Faso's chief of staff of the national gendarmerie said that the security officers outside the embassy were not well equipped to handle the protest and that they were waiting for orders from authorities for reinforcement, which took several hours. The worsening Islamist insurgency in Burkina Faso is perceived as neo-colonial influence from Paris, subsequently calling for a partnership with Russia similar to Mali. ("French embassy asks Burkina Faso for more protection after protests," Reuters, 22 November 2022)
MALI
French-supported NGOs ordered to cease activities
On 21 November, the military government ordered non-governmental organisations, supported or funded by France, to stop their activities with immediate effect. The development comes a week after France halted development aid to Mali. The Malian government said the French move “intended to deceive and manipulate” public opinion for “destabilizing and isolating Mali.” The government also said that the French assistance was “dehumanizing aid used as a means of blackmailing rulers and actively supporting terrorist groups operating on Malian soil.” (“Mali bans NGOs supported by France amid diplomatic row,” Who owns Africa, 22 November 2022)
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
Coup attempt contained, says PM
On 25 November, Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada said a coup attempt had been foiled and six people, including former national assembly president Delfim Neves, had been detained for the same. The Economic Community of West African States condemned the development. The ECOWAS Chairman, also the Guinea-Bissau President, Umaro Sissoco Embalo emphasised that Sao Tome and Principe was known to be a model democracy in the continent. (“Coup attempt thwarted in Sao Tome and Principe, PM says,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)
About the authors
S Shaji teaches at the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Apoorva Sudhakar is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.
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Amit Gupta | Dr Amit Gupta is an international security and economics analyst based in the USA
The US: The Year of Living Dangerously?
Kuri Sravan Kumar | Kuri Sravan Kumar is a PhD scholar at the Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi.
North Korea in 2023: Military buildups and Close Connections with Russia
Yogeshwari S | Yogeswari S is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.
South Korea in 2023: Addressing Climate Change and the Global Supply Chains
Abhishek Ranjan | Abhishek Ranjan is a PhD student at the Korean Studies, Centre for East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
East Asia in 2023: Big Power Politics and New Defence Strategies
IPRI Team
Special Edition: Conflicts in 2023
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #92&93 | COP 28 and Africa
Nithyashree RB
COP28 and Africa: Priorities and Initiatives
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #91 | Failed coup in Sierra Leone
Anu Maria Joseph
Sierra Leone: A failed coup
GP Team
Henry Kissinger: A profile
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #90 | Floods in East Africa
Jerry Franklin A
Floods in East Africa
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #89 | Africa’s debate on colonial reparations
Sneha Surendran
Africa’s debate on colonial reparations
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #87&88 | Elusive Ceasefires in Sudan
Anu Maria Joseph
Sudan’s ceasefires remain elusive: Four reasons why
GP Team
UK’s AI Summit
Femy Francis
Ten years of BRI: Xi and the Beijing Summit
Femy Francis
The return of the South China Sea
Femy Francis
BRICS Summit poised as the Champion of Global South
Femy Francis
Japan-Australia's Reciprocal Access Agreement
CR Team | Avishka Ashok
China: Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ visit emphasizes hope for statehood
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Weekly #85&86 | Niger-France ties and Liberia elections
Nithyashree RB
Liberia elections: Explained
Jerry Franklin
France's increasing unpopularity in Niger
PR Team
The Snow Leopards of Pakistan
Padmashree Anandhan
Poland elections 2023: Reasons behind the shift
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine: The failure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
Issues for Europe
Yogeswari S | CSIS
Poland’s engagement
Prof Joyati Bhattacharya
G20 Summit: India the Global Host
Anu Maria Joseph
Africa in the Indian Ocean region: Explained
Dhriti Mukherjee
Pakistan grapples with soaring electricity bills and free riders
Shamini Velayutham
Pakistan: Recent spike in Polio cases
Dhriti Mukherjee
Pakistan’s power predicament: Soaring bills and public discontent
Ankit Singh
Pakistan’s Economy: Three questions
Sneha Surendran
From Cargo to Canvas: The vibrant world of Pakistani Truck Art
Anu Maria Joseph
Taiwan in Africa: The Last Ally and the Lost Allies
Feben Itty | CSIS
NATO’s Challenge
Genesy B | abcnews
Russia’s Endgame
Sreeja JS
Ukraine’s Strategies and Endgame
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #79 | Africa Climate Summit
Sneha Surendran
Africa Climate Summit: Rising new leadership in climate action
Nithyashree RB
Coup in Gabon: Three questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #78 | Coup in Gabon
Sneha Surendran
Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation
Rishika Yadav
Floods in Europe: Impacts, and issues
Padmashree Anandhan
Return of the Heatwaves
Jerry Franklin A
A profile on Ethiopia's Oromo ethnic group
Sneha Surendran
A profile on Ethiopia’s Somali ethnic group
Nithyashree RB
A profile on Ethiopia’s Afar ethnic group
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia’s Amhara problem
Jerry Franklin A
ECOWAS and Niger remain at an impasse, causing a prolonged standoff
Lakshmi Parimala H
Mural, Movie and the Map: Akhand Bharat mural and Adipurush
Rishika Yadav
The High Seas Treaty
Indrani Talukdar
Ukraine War and the International Order
Jerry Franklin A
Coup in Niger: Manifold national, regional and international stances
Sneha Surendran
Senegal's political crisis: Four questions
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #73&74 | Coup in Niger and Senegal’s political crisis
Himani Pant
Germany-Russia Relations: What Next?
D. Suba Chandran
Que Sara Sara: Pakistan, Two Months After 09 May
Sneha Surendran
Pakistan’s e-Sport Industry: A Profile
Ramya Balasubramanian
Russia and Europe: Understanding Moscow’s strategies
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Return of Violence in Manipur
Nithyashree RB
The UN in Africa: MINUSMA has failed. So did Mali
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar continues to burn
Anu Maria Joseph
The Wagner Group in Africa: Fallouts of the failed revolt in Russia
NIAS Africa Team
Africa Weekly #69-71 | The Wagner Group in Africa
Lakshmi Parimala
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
Rise and fall of the Wagner Revolt: Four Takeaways
Sneha Surendran
The Wagner Revolt: A profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Four Issues to watch in 2023
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
Global Gender Gap Report 2023: Regional Takeaways
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
Anu Maria Joseph
Resurging insurgency in Uganda and insecurity in East Africa
Jerry Franklin
Eritrea: Back to the IGAD after 16 years
Bibhu Prasad Routray
India: Violence continues in Manipur
Jerry Franklin
Tunisia: A Political Profile
Jerry Franklin
Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis: Reasons for its continuation
Anu Maria Joseph
Ceasefires in Sudan: An uneasy trajectory
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George | Rishika Yadav is a Research Assistant in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS. Nithyashree RB, Sreeja JS, and Melvin George are Research Interns in NIAS Europe Studies at NIAS.
The Battle for Bakhmut: Significance, Objectives, Course, and What Next
Nithyashree RB
Poland approves Russian Influence Law: Three Implications
Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability
Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus | Japan in Africa
Devjyoti Saha
Japan in Africa: Renewed Efforts to Revitalise Relations
Indrani Talukdar
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges
Lakshmi Parimala H
Bhutan's Gross National Happiness
Amit Gupta
The Trump Phenomenon: Why it Won’t Go
Rishika Yadav
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
IPRI Team
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Stalemate
NIAS Africa Team
Droughts in East Africa: A climate disaster
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan: Intensifying political rivalry and expanding violence
NIAS Africa Team
Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
Padmashree Anandhan
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia: The question of undocumented migrants
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Bhoomika Sesharaj
PR Explains: Pakistan’s power outage
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan’s Blue Helmets: A long-standing contribution
D Suba Chandran
Karachi: The race and new alignments for the Mayor
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria elections: Ruling party wins; What is ahead?
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
NIAS Africa Team
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
IPRI Team
The continuing crisis in Israel
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
IPRI Team
Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
Avishka Ashok
China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
Ankit Singh
Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
Akriti Sharma
COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
IPRI Team
Workers strike in the UK
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Drone attacks in Russia
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
Avishka Ashok | Research Associate | National Institute of Advanced Studies
20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China: Major takaways
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Devjyoti Saha
Solomon Islands’ China card: Three reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
Floods in West Africa: Nigeria and beyond
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Famine in Somalia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Kenya Elections 2022
IPRI Team
Protests in Iran
IPRI Team
Clashes between Armenia-Azerbaijan
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The reinvention of Al Shabab
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Lavrov's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron's visit to Africa
GP Team
Floods and Emergency in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Six months of War in Ukraine
GP Team
Regional round-ups
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
NIAS Africa Team