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CWA # 1362, 31 March 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
South Africa Elections 2024: Five questions

  Jerry Franklin A

On 29 May 2024, South Africa is scheduled to conduct its seventh presidential election. In 2024, the country marks 30 years of democracy and independence. The country's first democratic elections took place in April 1994, following the overthrow of the apartheid regime. The 1994 elections saw a historic turnout; around 19 million South Africans which is 87 percent of eligible voters took part in the election. Following this historic election, Nelson Mandela, a stalwart of the ANC, was sworn in as South Africa's first president on 9 May 1994. Since then, the ANC has been in power. However, there is an increasing narrative that the ANC would lose elections this year, implying a potential change in South Africa's political dynamics.
 

What is the electoral system of South Africa?
Every five years, national elections are held where registered voters over eighteen can vote. Provincial legislature elections are held on the same day. To elect representatives for the National Assembly, South Africa uses a proportional representation electoral system. The National Assembly has a total of 400 seats, divided into two categories. Out of these, 200 seats are reserved for national party lists and can only be contested by political parties running on closed lists. The remaining 200 seats are up for grabs by parties and independent candidates, distributed among the nine provinces. Following the election, the National Assembly of South Africa elects the country's president.
 
Which are the major political parties contesting elections?
The following are the political parties which are contesting against ANC to claim its decades-long hegemony.
 
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is the main opposition to the ANC and currently holds power in Cape Town and the Western Cape province. The party is moderate and has traditionally been popular among white South African people. Although the DA received 20 per cent of votes in 2019, opinion polls suggest that the Democratic Alliance (DA) has gradually gained support from the public. According to the Social Research Foundation, there was a seven per cent increase in support for the party. However, to gain more support, the party must address the perception that it is controlled by white people.
 
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), is the third-largest political party in South Africa. Julius Malema, the former leader of the ANC youth, is now the leader of EEF. The party was established in 2013 by two former members of the ANC. The party draws inspiration from Marxist-Leninist ideology and positions itself as a radical and militant movement for economic liberation. It also claims to be an anti-imperialist and leftist movement. The EFF positions itself as the genuine defender of the principles that the ANC upheld during the anti-apartheid era. The party claims that the ANC has subsequently abandoned its actual value and purpose. This allows the black South African voters to shift from ANC to EEF without compromising their actual political orientation.
 
Additionally, seven opposition parties in South Africa have allied to form the Multi-Party Charter or moonshot. They have agreed on a shared vision for how South Africa would be run if they secure most seats.
 
Is support for the African National Congress (ANC) declining?
The African National Congress (ANC) has consistently won every election since 1994 with a majority of votes and seats in the National Assembly. The ANC was nearly unbeatable in South African politics in all the previous elections, winning 70 per cent of the vote. However, many people now find its reputation insufficient due to the socioeconomic issues plaguing the country. However, in the 2019 elections, their share of votes decreased to 57.5 per cent; the lowest since the 1994 election. The ANC is predicted to struggle to maintain its absolute majority this year. The consensus is that, in its three decades in power, the ANC has not succeeded in uplifting the conditions of millions of South Africa's poor Black majority. Additionally, many political leaders have quit the party and formed new parties which poses a major challenge to ANC.
 
Based on early opinion surveys, the ANC might not win more than 50 per cent of the votes in the upcoming election. According to data from South Africa's Social Research Foundation, the percentage of support for ANC dropped by seven. Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters parties experienced a surge in popularity. The party holding power for so long is an additional factor in its declining support.
 
What are the major issues debated pre-election?
First, inequality and unemployment. South Africa is ranked as the top country out of 164 countries in the World Bank's global poverty database. According to the database, inequality has increased since the end of apartheid in 1994, bu also acknowledges that the legacy of apartheid has played a significant role in driving inequality. According to the World Bank, South Africa has the highest rate of unemployment in the world. As of the third quarter of 2023, the jobless rate stood at 32 per cent. A survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation revealed that eight out of ten registered voters believe that the country's labour regulations make it harder to create jobs. Around 60 per cent of people aged between 15 and 24 are currently unemployed.
 
Second, corruption. According to Transparency International, South Africa is ranked 72 out of 180 countries in terms of perceptions of corruption. The organization has reported several corruption scandals involving both the current and previous presidents. Public sector corruption is a significant issue in the country. Former President Jacob Zuma resigned in February 2018 after facing many accusations of corruption, and he was succeeded by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa.
 
Third, electricity blackouts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that Eskom, which is a state-owned utility in South Africa, has been poorly managed for years resulting in extended power outages and rolling blackouts. These outages have adversely affected the country's economic performance. The prolonged power outages disrupt essential services, businesses, and educational institutions. Energy issues in South Africa have been exacerbated by acts of sabotage, looting, and criminal activity.
 
What does it mean?
The probability of ANC winning the elections is below 50 per cent. Besides, another opposition party gaining a majority is unlikely. It would imply a first coalition government for South Africa, a significant political shift in South Africa. Another actor in South African politics would potentially reframe the region's agenda and alter South Africa's foreign policy. For instance, South Africa's neutrality in Russia's conflict with Ukraine may be reevaluated after the 2024 elections. The ANC losing power could alter South Africa's stand against Israel, which it has accused of genocide. The ANC has publicly backed the Palestinian cause, which has been considered radical by many countries. There may be a review of ties with China, Russia, and the US.  For 30 years, the ANC has had exclusive control over the foreign policy of South Africa.

About the authors
Jerry Franklin A is a Postgraduate Student at Madras Christian College, Chennai.

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