NIAS Africa Studies
Sudan: One Year of Civil War
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Anu Maria Joseph
30 April 2024 |
On 15 April, Sudan marked one year of the civil war. The conflict between the rival military forces, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has killed nearly 16,000 people and displaced 8.4 million.
On 10 May, the RSF advanced towards the al-Fasher region in North Darfur, the only region under the control of the SAF in Darfur. The conflict has intensified in the region.
The international community has acknowledged that the war in Sudan has been “forgotten” at an international conference discussing the conflict hosted by France on 15 April. France's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Stéphane Séjourné, stated that "the Sudanese people have been the victims of a terrible war" for a year and suffered from "being forgotten" and "indifference."
According to the UN, Sudan is facing "one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory" and "the largest internal displacement crisis in the world."
The one year of the war is being marked by intensifying and expanding violence, a humanitarian crisis and a regional crisis.
The state of war
For the past year, two rival military leaders - Hamdan Dagalo of the paramilitary RSF (a derivative of Janjaweed militia) and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF- have been fighting for the country’s leadership. RSF and SAF which together toppled the dictator, Omar al-Bashir in 2019 had promised a civilian transition at the earliest. The promised transition never happened and SAF carried out another coup sabotaging the civilian-military transitional government. The war began after the SAF solely took control of the country and RSF disagreed to merge with the SAF.
The conflict has expanded in terms of geography and intensity. The war, which started in the capital, Khartoum, has spread to the cities of Omdurman, Port Sudan, Bahri and recently, Wad Madani. It has spread over the states of Darfur, Nile and Kordafan. Both sides carry out frequent attacks using tanks, artillery, rockets, and air-delivered munitions in all the hotspots. The RSF controls the majority of the conflict hotspots, especially the capital Khartoum. The SAF is held east of the country, including Port Sudan near the Red Sea. In March, SAF advanced and recaptured several pockets of Omdurman. What began as a military rivalry has turned into ethnic conflict, especially in Darfur and Kordofan states. RSF, along with several arab militias, is accused of carrying out atrocities against the Darfurians. Arab and non-Arab militias have taken sides with the RSF and the SAF, respectively. Several regional and international mediations have failed without a concrete outcome. Meanwhile, both parties are vying for international and regional legitimacy for a sovereign leadership of the country.
The indefinite human cost
According to the UN, 48 million people are facing catastrophic levels of hunger in the country. It has warned of an impending famine. Nearly 230,000 children are severely malnourished. Ethnic atrocities are mounting in Darfur, a region which has been grappling with two decades of genocidal violence. Civilians are slaughtered, rape is being used as a weapon, aid camps and homes are burned. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 11,000 suspected cases of cholera, including over 300 deaths, have been reported from 11 of Sudan's 18 states. Aid agencies claim that reach to conflict-hit regions is restricted by the army, and RSF-controlled areas risk looting.
Regional repercussions
WFP warns that across the region, 28 million people face acute food insecurity: 18 million in Sudan, seven million in South Sudan, and three million in Chad. Nearly two million people have fled to neighbouring countries, including South Sudan and Chad. Due to a lack of funds and refugee surge, three million people in South Sudan are facing acute hunger with no assistance from the WFP. Similarly, in Chad, 1.2 million refugees need humanitarian support. The exodus surge has burdened the neighbouring countries of South Sudan, Chad and Ethiopia, where ethnic rivalries and violence are a daily occurrence along the borders. Recently, ethnic violence in the Abiey region, a disputed land between Sudan and South Sudan, has increased, with the UN reporting more than 100 casualties.
A lack of international response to the worsening humanitarian response has left the country on the verge of collapse. A famine would likely spill over the region, impacting Chad and South Sudan. Humanitarian crises would potentially trigger inter and intra-ethnic and resource violence.
International limitations
The international community initially made considerable efforts to bring about peace talks. At least nine rounds of ceasefire efforts were mediated by several international actors, including the US, the UN, and Saudi Arabia; all failed. Both warring parties are persistent for an absolute victory. They have shown little commitment to compliance. Currently, with the war in Gaza and Ukraine taking momentum, attention to the conflict in Sudan has decreased. Although both sides rhetorically agreed to all rounds of ceasefires, none was achieved on the ground.
The African Union (AU) and other African countries are absent in all the mediations. Regional efforts are limited to calling for an end to hostilities. The lack of effective ceasefire monitoring mechanisms failed the international efforts. The efforts are challenged by the inability to propose a peace talk which matches the complex conflict. Unsuccessful attempts imply the need to revisit the approach to the conflict in Sudan.
The conflict stalemate
The conflict in Sudan has been prolonged for a year with failed ceasefires and peace talks. It has become complex, with the involvement of multiple actors and extended geography and character. Now, it is challenging for the mediators to bring the multifaceted conflict to a negotiating table. Although the SAF has gained a little ground around Khartoum, defeating the RSF is far from happening, and the RSF is unpopular and unequipped to defeat the SAF and take over the country's leadership. A compromise between the RSF and the SAF is unlikely. Hence, the fighting is at a stalemate, which would continue with a lower frequency during the coming months until a significant breakthrough.
About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Associate at NIAS.