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CWA # 1367, 30 April 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
One year of war in Sudan: Regional Implications

  Vetriselvi Baskaran

On 15 April, one year into the war in Sudan, humanitarian agencies are warning that the country is on the brink of famine due to the dire conditions and insufficient aid. The conflict has intensified and expanded, reaching the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman, Bahri and Port Sudan and the Darfur and Kordofan states. The warring parties, the RSF and the SAF have sided with ethnic Arab and non-Arab militias and have been carrying out atrocities. The conflict has killed more than 16,000 and has left thousands displaced. Several rounds of ceasefires mediated by regional and international actors have failed.

On 5 April, the WFP's spokeswoman, Leni Kinzli, stated that the UN's World Food Programme (WFP) has begun distributing food in Sudan's war-ravaged West and Central Darfur for the first time in months. WFP said two aid convoys crossed the border from Chad in late March, distributing food and nutrition assistance to about 250,000 people for a month. This was the first convoy to cross the Chad border following a long negotiation to reopen the humanitarian corridors which were closed by authorities loyal to the Sundanese army. 

Meanwhile, according to the Sudan Tribune, the conflict has been escalating in North Darfur. On 27 April, the UNSC expressed concern and asked the parties to take steps to de-escalate the conflict. Local media in Sudan reported that a full-scale attack on the city of al-Fashir was already underway. The spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the attack would be devastating since the city is already on the brink of famine.

While the conflict is escalating and intensifying, there is a critical warning of famine and an increase in displacement which would ultimately lead to a crisis beyond Sudan’s borders. 

The following are the regional implications of the civil war in Sudan.

1. The spillover of the conflict. Sudan shares common cross-border communities with Chad, South Sudan and CAR. With the countries unable to control the cross-border movement due to the war, violence has erupted in several common cross border communities of Rounga, Zaghawa, Massalit, and Tama. For example, the SAF-allied Zaghawa tribes of the Darfur region are extended to Chad. They seek to protect their kin in Sudan against the RSF’s atrocities in Darfur. The disruption of South Sudan’s oil pipeline in Sudan and inability to repair has affected the country’s oil demands. Arab News quoted South Sudan Vice President Riek Machar: "The repercussions of the conflict in Sudan extend far beyond our economy, posing significant threats to our security." In the Abyei region, a border region claimed by Sudan and South Sudan, communal clashes erupted in February. 13 intercommunal clashes between the Ngok Dinka and Twic Dinka communities, seven between the Ngok Dinka and Nuer communities, and one between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya community were recorded by Sudan Tribune in the region. The media also reported that there were an estimated 175 clashes in the region where 257 people were killed. The clashes on the Al-Fashaga border have deteriorated the relationship between Ethiopia and Sudan. Recently, on 12 May, Sudanese army ground defences shot down two drones attempting to target an airport in the Al-Fashaga. 

2. The humanitarian crisis beyond borders. According to the OCHA, in April 2024, over 8.6 million people have fled their homes since the conflict began. More than two million people crossed the border, including 1.8 million who fled to neighbouring countries including the Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, and South Sudan. Of these, 660,000 people fled to South Sudan, 579,000 people to Chad, and 500,000 people to Egypt. UNHCR reported that one-fifth of children who fled Sudan to Chad are facing acute malnourishment and food insecurity. OCHA says that nearly four million children have been displaced. About 17.7 million people experience acute hunger. The country is grappling with acute shortages of essential items such as food, clean water, medicines and fuel. According to several humanitarian agencies, about 65 per cent of the population lacks healthcare as conflict zones are no longer functional. Disease outbreaks are increasing with disrupted health services, including disease surveillance, functions of laboratories and rapid response teams. The Federal Ministry of Health estimated over 11,000 suspected cases of Cholera and 305 deaths from eight states. Further, the UN Refugee Agency reported that schools are all closed and students are deprived of education. In December, the UNHRC reported that at least 118 people were subjected to sexual violence. 

3. The involvement of the proxies. Several regional and international actors including the US, Russia, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are playing their role in the conflict to protect their interests. Russia’s Wagner group has been allegedly involved in the conflict. The group has been benefiting from the country’s mineral resources. UAE’s Haftar along with Wagner has been supplying weapons to the RSF. Both have a long relationship with RSF’s leader through the mining and smuggling of gold from Darfur’s Jebel Amer mines. The SAF is backed by Egypt which sees Sudan as a major ally against Ethiopia in its conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). With Ethiopia, Sudan's SAF had a bitter relationship over the disputed Al-Fashaga region. Iran backs the SAF with weapon supply and "Mohajer 6" drones to get its foothold in the Red Sea. The leaders of the SAF and the RSF have visited several countries seeking alliances and legitimacy to their leadership. While, the RSF leader Dagalo visited Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, South Africa, and Kenya, SAF leader Al-Burhan visited Libya and Egypt.

4. Failure of regional organizations. Negotiation efforts by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the AU, and other regional actors including South Sudan have failed. In December, IGAD planned for negotiations and invited both parties. However, Al-Burhan of SAF suspended Sudan’s membership in the group for inviting RSF to a summit. In March, the UNSC passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire ahead of Ramadan. SAF demanded RSF to return the seized provinces and RSF denied the condition which foiled the ceasefire attempt. On 3 February, the AU High Level Panel on Sudan (HLP-Sudan) was commissioned to end the fighting but failed to coordinate between the warring parties. Often regional attempts to bring negotiations were overshadowed by the international attempts including the US-Saudi Arabia led mediations. 

About the author
Vetriselvi Baskaran is a Research Assistant at NIAS.

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