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CWA # 1426, 1 August 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
South Africa Elections 2024 and the Zuma Factor

  Ayan Datta

On 19 June, the African National Congress (ANC) leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, was sworn in for his second term as South Africa’s President. The presidential and provincial elections were held simultaneously on 29 May. The ANC lost majority support for the first time securing 40 per cent of the vote. The ANC’s long-time opponent, the Democratic Alliance (DA), won 22 per cent. The ANC lost its 30-year-long electoral dominance and announced the formation a National Unity Government. 

The 2024 polls were Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party’s first major election. It secured third place with 14.58 per cent of the votes. Zuma formed the party in 2023. On 17 June, with 58 seats, Zuma announced that his party would lead the opposition alliance with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and other minor parties. 

Jacob Zuma: A political profile 
Jacob Zuma began his political career as an anti-apartheid freedom fighter. From 1962 to 1990, he was a counterintelligence operative for uMkhonto weSizwe, the ANC’s armed wing (Zuma named his party after this armed group). Since the 1990s, Zuma involved in ANC’s activities in his home province, KwaZulu Natal (KZN). He expanded the ANC’s support base among the Zulu tribe in KZN. 

In 2007, Zuma won the ANC’s presidency at the 52nd National Conference in Polokwane. He defeated Thabo Mbeki, then leader of the ANC. Zuma became the party’s presidential candidate in the following election. From 2009 to 2017, Zuma served as the President of the country. 

In December 2017, Cyril Ramaphosa defeated Jacob Zuma’s candidate, Dlamini-Zuma, to become ANC’s President. As per the ANC’s conventions, Zuma was supposed to resign as South Africa’s President and make way for Ramaphosa. However, he refused to resign. In February 2018, he was forced to resign. 

In 2023, after breaking away from the ANC, he founded the uMkhonto we Sizwe party (MKP). However, on 21 May 2024, the Constitutional Court disqualified Zuma from contesting the election. In the 2024 elections, the MK party became the major challenger to the political scene.

Zuma’s ANC leadership, controversies and support in KwaZulu Natal
The ANC’s popularity steadily declined under Zuma’s leadership. The party’s vote share declined from around 70 per cent in 2004 to 65 per cent in 2009. In 2014, it further dropped to around 62 per cent. 

Zuma’s ANC leadership was more left-leaning and populist compared to his predecessor Mbeki. However, his presidency terms were marked by corruption controversies. Since 2006, Zuma has been tried multiple times for accepting bribes from the French defence company Thales, which the country had arms deal with. Besides, he was alleged to have a corrupt nexus with the Indian Gupta business family. In 2016, the Justice Zondo Commission accused Zuma of state capture along with the Gupta family. Corruption in South Africa increased under Zuma. According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, in 2009, South Africa ranked 56 out of 180 countries. By 2017, its ranking dropped to 71. Despite the allegations, Zuma has maintained his popularity using his charm, charisma, and Zulu support base.

Zuma Factor in the 2024 elections
During the 2024 elections, the MK party was widely discussed. First, analysts predicted that it would gain support in KZN at the expense of the ANC. In February 2024, the think tank Social Research Foundation reported that the MK could secure around 50 per cent of the ANC’s support base in KZN. Second, Zuma's promised to address the issues of unemployment, lack of access to healthcare, and persistent blackouts or “load sheddings.” Third, in March 2024, the MK outperformed the EFF and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) in a by-election in the Mpumalanga province. This was the MK’s debut election. Its victory indicated that Zuma was on the rise. 

In the 2024 presidential elections, the ANC lost the majority for the first time. The Zuma is said to be a factor behind this. Comparing the 2019 and 2024 elections, the parties other than the ANC and MK saw no substantial change in their support levels. While the ANC’s share declined from around 57 per cent in 2019 to 40 per cent in 2024, the MK secured 14.58 per cent of the votes in its first elections. The MK's vote share was approximately equal to the share of votes lost to the ANC. 

The MK’s rise was evident in the KwaZulu Natal province. During the 2019 presidential elections, the ANC secured nearly 55 per cent of votes in the province. However, in 2024, the MK routed the ANC’s votes securing around 45 per cent of the vote, pushing the ANC to third place with 18 per cent. MK has won 58 seats in the National Assembly. Of these, 19 belong to KZN. In 2019, the ANC had 24 seats in KZN; in 2024, it secured only seven. 

Post-election, although the MK gained massive support, Zuma claimed the elections were rigged. He asserted that the MK’s votes had been undercounted and called for a re-poll. The MK categorically refused to ally with the ANC as long as Ramaphosa was in charge. Zuma is likely to use his support base to pressure the ANC and remove Ramaphosa from its leadership. However, the ANC’s decision to form a national unity government with the Democratic Alliance (DA) precluded Zuma’s plans. The MK would likely become the country’s largest opposition party. Zuma would potentially partner with the EFF to form the opposition coalition. With the ANC in decline, support for the Zuma-led MK is set to rise in South African politics. 

About the author
Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at University of Hyderabad.

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