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CWA # 1532, 30 November 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
One Year of Military Coup in Gabon

  Ayan Datta

30 August 2024 marked one year of the military coup in Gabon. Although then President Ali Bongo secured a 64 per cent vote during the general elections a month before the coup, he allegedly amended the constitution in his favour and engaged in electoral malpractices to defeat his opponents. Soon after Bongo claimed victory, the military captured key government offices and declared the results null and void. The coup’s leading military officers established the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) as a transitional governing body and dissolved all existing government institutions. Although the deposed President urged the citizenry to “make noise" for him, the military takeover was followed by street celebrations. The public response was consistent with the Afrobarometer's findings that while Gabonese citizens preferred democracy as a principle and a method of selecting leaders, they had grown disillusioned with the Bongo dynasty’s ability to meet their economic hardships. The military, therefore, successfully capitalised on the citizens' political frustrations.

A year after the coup, Gabon’s economic situation and international standing have improved. However, with Nguema’s political ambitions, Gabon’s “transitional” government may become permanent. 

Post-Coup State of Politics
Soon after deposing Bongo, the coup leaders began implementing their agenda of removing the dynasty’s corrupt influence over the state institutions. The CTRI introduced a Transition Charter in September 2023, establishing a transitional government. Besides appointing members of the anti-Bongo ‘Alternance 2023’ alliance to the new institutions, Nguemo used the Charter to legitimise his position as paramount leader, designating himself Interim President. The opposition, civil society and women’s groups received merely token representation without real influence.

Although the CTRI promised to return the country to civilian democratic rule, the military leadership heavily monitored and influenced all initiatives to promote democracy. Efforts at democratisation were primarily geared towards facilitating Nguema's ambition of continuing to exercise power by reinstating himself as a civilian President at the end of the transition period. 

In April 2024, Ngeuma organised a month-long Inclusive National Dialogue to reach out to opposition forces, accepting over 50,000 recommendations on governance and democratisation from 600 delegates representing Gabon's 104 political parties and civil society elements. The delegates called for political reform, recommending a presidential system with a two-term limit and urging the military to hold elections by August 2025. They did not question Nguema's right to contest elections as a civilian after the end of the transitional period. Consequently, the door remains open for Nguema, who tacitly stated his intention to contest elections in August 2025, to remain in power as a civilian President. 

Gabon’s new proposed constitution, which is based on the Dialogue's recommendations, provides Nguema a pathway to monopolise power as a civilian leader. The proposed constitution will transform Gabon from a semi-presidential to a presidential republic, giving the president greater executive power with fewer legislative and judicial checks. With Bongo's Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) banned from contesting and there being no major independent opposition forces in the country, the new Presidential system, if implemented, would allow Nguema to create an ‘imperial Presidency’ with himself and his military colleagues at its core.

Post-coup State of Economy 
The CTRI sought to reverse the opaque, corrupt economic practices of the Bongo regime, implementing transparency-enhancing measures in the public finance sector, including digitalisation of revenue administration and customs records. The government introduced expansionary fiscal policies, making greater state revenue available for public spending. Most importantly, Ngeuma successfully contained inflation to less than four per cent, providing major relief to the poverty-ridden masses. Nguema eased the country’s cost of living crisis, suspending taxes and customs duties on essential food, cooking gas and construction materials. Furthermore, the CTRI resumed public sector recruitment, increased fuel subsidies and introduced social welfare measures, reflecting its commitment to addressing the long-neglected basic needs of Gabon’s unemployed and financially strained youth.

The CTRI’s economic policy was characterised by efforts to diversify Gabon’s oil-dependent economy, given its declining petroleum reserves. For instance, the government formed Gabon’s first national carrier, Fly Gabon, by nationalising an existing private airline, to boost revenues and employment opportunities in the domestic and international aviation sectors. However, full economic liberalisation remained elusive, with night curfews harming the service sector and troop deployments in major public spaces reflecting Nguema’s cautious approach to economic reforms.

Post-coup State of External Relations 
After the coup, the Nguemo government was at risk of regional and international isolation, as Gabon’s regional and international partners, including the African Union (AU), the neighbouring Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Sahelian States’ Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), the US and France denounced the coup. Despite suffering international condemnation, Nguema has adopted a pragmatic foreign policy approach by continuing to engage with key regional and international actors, including those who condemned the regime. Nguema’s diplomatic efforts have been largely successful. The ECCAS and the AU, which initially suspended Gabon’s membership in 2023, restored it in 2024, marking a diplomatic success. Despite France’s initial condemnation, Nguema engineered a normalisation of ties, signing agreements worth over 739 billion FCFA with France in 2024, marking his prioritisation of economic diplomacy. A similar rapprochement with the US followed, with Washington announcing a USD five million aid for Gabon’s peaceful transition. Despite international partners’ unease with the military regime, Nguema has kept international engagements alive by using the government’s transitional character as a legitimising tool and positioning post-coup Gabon as a secure and uncorrupt investment destination. 

The Way Forward 
Although the coup in Gabon was, in principle, a violation of democratic norms by a politicised military, it temporarily addressed the people's frustrations with the existing democratic process, which, for most Gabonese citizens, had been reduced to a revolving door of authoritarian and extractive elites. While the CTRI's economic and foreign policies appear encouraging, Gabon's long-term success will depend on its willingness to facilitate a smooth transition to civilian rule and build inclusive, representative and genuinely democratic institutions because no other form of government has shown long-term success in Africa's diverse and politically unstable context. The CTRI's economic policies have been farsighted and aimed at reducing Gabon's economic divisions and oil dependency. Nguema’s foreign policy has facilitated its economic recovery while safeguarding the regime’s legitimacy. However, Gabon could easily relapse into the Bongo dynasty's corrupt and stagnant economic model if Nguema consolidates power as a civilian President with the military’s backing. Should that happen, Gabon would return to a Bongo-esque variant of extractive authoritarianism.

About the author
Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.
 

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