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CWA # 1567, 31 December 2024
NIAS Africa Studies
Tunisia: Kais Saied's second term and end of democracy

  Anu Maria Joseph

On 8 October, Tunisian President Kais Saied won a second term in office, securing 90 per cent of votes, according to the electoral commission. Only two candidates were allowed to stand against him, both secured seven per cent and two per cent of votes each. The voter turnout was 29 per cent.

A decade ago, the country was a symbol of democracy, where the wave of pro-democracy protests led to the Arab Spring in 2011. Currently, Tunisia has dropped from 53rd to 82nd place on the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index.  Many fear that Saied's second term means the establishment of an autocracy. 

Tunisia's elections: Major Issues
The following are the major issues of the Tunisian election 2024.

1. Kais Saied: A populist turned autocrat. Kais Saied, 66, a former law professor, was elected in 2019. He was welcomed by the public for his optimism. He promised a "new Tunisia," representing the non-elitist and trying to "be voice for the marginalised population.” He promised a rejuvenated economy and to curb corruption. But in 2021, things changed when he conducted what others described as a "self-coup." He dismissed the parliament, rewrote the constitution and concentrated power into his hands. He justified his actions placing himself as a person who "corrects the path of revolution." For many critics, Tunisia is back to what it was before the Arab Spring- an outright autocracy. He introduced a new constitution through a referendum, which gave him absolute power. Under the new constitution, the president cannot be impeached by the parliament or any other state institution. He has the power to select the prime minister and ministers and dismiss them. 

2. Undemocratic elections. The 2024 elections were undemocratic. Through his acquired power, Saied made certain that none of the political opposition figures were eligible to run against him. The first step was in 2022 when he brought Tunisia's electoral commission under his control. During the 2019 elections, 25 candidates ran against him. This year, it came down to three, including Saied. Candidates were disqualified under different categories of allegations. Besides, he introduced Decree Law 54, which restricts anyone from criticising or filing legal cases against him. Campaign rallies or public debates were not allowed. Many political parties, activists, unions and associations boycotted the elections. 

3. Continuing protests and response.
Protests in Tunisia have been a recurring event. There was a wave of protest ahead of the elections, denouncing mounting repression on Saied’s opposers. Protests were also frustration against Saied being poised for victory. Many boycotted the elections and called for an end to Saied's rule. They carried signs “Pharaoh manipulating the law." The protests were against the flouting of freedom, democracy, and achievements of the Tunisian Revolution. The protesters were lawyers, journalists, activists, trade unionists, students and political opposition. However, Sied successfully overturned the protests by manipulating and misinterpreting the law. He arrested and threatened legal action against his dissents.

4. Mounting socio-economic challenges. Rising discontent among Tunisians was also over Saied's handling of the increasing socio-economic crises. According to the World Bank, inflation has remained the highest in the decade (10.4 per cent) since February 2023. Although it reduced to 6.7 per cent in August 2024, inflation is still higher than the previous years. The economic growth rate is constant at 0.4 per cent since 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is at 16.4 per cent. In October, although Tunisia concluded an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a USD two billion grant, it stalled after Saied rejected the economic reforms demanded by the IMF.

Kais Saied's Second Term: What does it mean?
Saied's third term has consolidated his authoritarianism in Tunisia. It would imply that the achievements of the Tunisian Revolution and the democracy dream have failed in the country. While Saied is tightening his political grip, economic reforms are being sidelined, with his government leveraging unsustainable foreign grants.

The second term also implies that Saied would likely further alter the constitution to extend his term in office. Scattered and isolated protests are unlikely to bring any change. While the protests remain fragmented, Saied has increased his efforts to close the loopholes of another revolution by manipulating the law. 

For Tunisians, Saied's second term means suppression and erosion of their democracy dream. But, Kais Saied, once represented as the saviour of Tunisia, has tested Tunisian's faith in democracy once again. The achievements and hope after the Tunisian Revolution were in vain, the post-revolution democratic regime failed in its promises and is slowly bringing Tunisia back to square one. 

About the author
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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