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CWA # 1390, 23 July 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Germany: Rise of Far-Right questions survival of the left leaning coalition

  Neha Tresa George

By Neha Tresa George,

Introduction
On 09 June, the EU election in Germany for the Members of Parliament (MEPs) took place. The voters who are either Germans or EU citizens over the age of 16 and are enrolled in the electoral register were allowed to vote. The system of postal voting is also possible for the active participation of citizens abroad. The number of Parliament Members representing Germany is 96 out of the 720 members which was the same as in the 2019 elections. Under the law prescribed in the EU, Germany follows the proportional representation system. The members are elected based on Land lists of candidates, which are nominations of parties or political associations for election in land or several Lander. Since the EU elections of 2014, there has been no restrictive clause or threshold for political parties to be elected to the European Parliament. The country does not follow the system of compulsory voting. The EU elections of 2024 were the first to be held after the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Olaf Scholz defeated the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) led by Angela Merkel.

How they voted
In the election polls, the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) led by Manfred Weber gained the overall majority by achieving 30 per cent of the votes. The Far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party led by Maximilian Krah came second with 15.9 per cent votes mostly topping the eastern German states. Meanwhile, the parties of Far-Left Social Democrats (SPD), neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) and GRUNE (Greens) comprising the current coalition faced a bitter defeat with 13.9 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively. The candidates of SPD, FDP and the Greens were Katarina Barley, M A Strack Zimmerman and Terry Rientke respectively. The country’s new populist party disintegrated from DIE LINK, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) founded by Sahra Wagenknecht attained 6.2 per cent votes. The party combines the economic policies of left-wing along with the cultural views of the right-wing. Germany had a historic voter turnout of 64.78 per cent.

The governing coalition of SPD, FDP and the GRUNE parties led by Olaf Scholz; the Chancellor of Germany performed poorly in the elections with the surveys showing three-quarters of Germans disappointed with the work of the government. The SPD Party of which Scholz is a part, called the election result a “bitter defeat” citing the party’s worst outcome ever in more than 130 years. The three-party coalition failed to acknowledge the issues of the country as its economy, which is the biggest in Europe struggles to generate growth. Despite several demands from the opposition, Scholz had ruled out the possibility of a snap election. Steffen Hebestrait, the German spokesman said, "The election date is next fall as planned, and we plan to follow that through.” Thus, Germany rejected to follow the path of France where Emmanuel Macron, the French President called immediately for a snap election due to his party’s defeat. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German President warned the people against the dangers of socialism and hate by highlighting the brutality of National Socialists.

Performance in the last three EU elections
2019: In the EU elections, the majority votes was polled by the CDU/CSU party with 28.9 per cent although they lost five seats compared to the election of 2014.  The GRUNE came second securing 20.5 per cent followed by the SPD and AfD with 15.8 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. The FDP party came sixth with 5.4 per cent preceded by the DIE LINKE (The Left) which attained 5.5 per cent. The election acted as a test to examine the support of Far-Rights in the country due to the AfD party entering the parliament with a third place in the 2017 Federal election. However, their performance did not result in any shift to the power dynamics although they gained four seats more than the previous election. The voter turnout in the country was 61.38 per cent showing a sudden increase of over 13 per cent.

2014: The elections saw the victory of CDU/CSU with 35.3 per cent of votes claiming the majority despite losing eight seats from the previous election. It was followed by the SPD party with 27.3 per cent and the GRUNE with 10.7 per cent. The fourth position was attained by the DIE LINKE party with 7.4 per cent while the AfD and FDP only got 7.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively. The election marked the end of electoral threshold of 5 per cent required to be met by the parties along with the reduction of seats from 99 to 96 under the Lisbon Treaty. The previous electoral thresholds of five per cent and three per cent were rendered “unconstitutional” and “illegal” by the Constitutional court’s ruling. This gave opportunities for representation to the smaller parties. It was also the first election after the formation of AfD, a political party in the right-wing spectrum. The voter turnout for the election was 48 per cent with not much improvement from the previous election in 2009.

2009: In the elections, the CDU party won the majority with an overall share of 30 per cent votes although it lost six seats from the previous election. The party was followed by the SPD with 20.8 per cent and GRUNEN with 12 per cent.  The FDP came in fourth position with 11 per cent of votes and DIE LINK in the fifth with seven per cent votes. The parties competed for 99 seats in the EU and were required to meet the five per cent election threshold. The major six parties that were represented in the national parliament or Bundestag entered the European Parliament by crossing the threshold. The voter turnout was just 43.3 per cent indicating the lower voter turnout in the case of EU elections.
 

Some of the trends from the last three elections;

First, CDU/CSU has been winning the election although by losing a considerable number of seats with each election. The Conservative party has maintained their majority till now.


Second, the increase in voter turnout with each election indicates awareness among German citizens of the importance of the EU elections. According to a survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) in 2024, some 62 per cent of Germans considered the EU election as “important.”


Third, the GRUNE and SPD failed to maintain their position in the 2024 election as they had been gaining second or third majority till the elections in 2019. The result was the result of growing dissatisfaction among the citizens.

Issues in voting
During the election campaigns in Germany for the EU elections, there seemed to be a shift in the political landscape as the Far-Rights were expected to gain more votes. All the major parties like the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU) launched their election campaigns in late April, before the elections.

Domestic issues were in the limelight
The governing coalition led by Olaf Scholz faced several disputes over areas in economy, social welfare and military support for Ukraine with disagreements with the three parties. Meanwhile, the ruling which declared the government's special funding plan for climate and energy programmes unlawful was still looming over the upcoming state budget of 2025. There were also disagreements amongst them over the special purpose funds whereby the SPD and Greens demand them for future investments in contrast to the Liberals deeming substantial cuts in the welfare state.

Economic environment and competitiveness
AS one of the largest economies in the EU, the economic factor and general competitiveness was a key factor in deciding the voters behaviour. With the increasing sanctions on Moscow due to the Ukraine crisis, Germany saw an upsurge in the domestic energy prices due to investments in renewable energy infrastructure and expensive LNG imports from the United States. The structural issues faced by the country like demographic decline, a shortage of skilled labour, derailed infrastructure, ineffective digitalisation along with regulatory hurdles were detrimental to the general competitiveness of the country. In short, the declining economy of Germany affects the entire EU market.

Concern for a global security- Ukraine crisis
Most of the parties campaigned for a more robust European security and a concrete defence strategy. The conflict over the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine was in the spotlight of the Germany’s foreign policy discourse. It has also led to internal and cross-party issues as the German parties failed to reach a consensus on how to balance between strengthening Ukraine’s defence capacities and at the same time avoiding a more extensive engagement. Members of the FDP party and the Greens criticised Scholz’s stance on weapon deliveries citing that hesitation could also lead to possible escalation.

Political scandals caused by AfD
Although the Far-Right party were met with various political scandals concerning espionage and corruption, it topped the election results in the eastern German states and secured their historic win of a second position in the country. One of the remarkable things was their increased voter per cent from the young generation.


Leading candidate Maximilian Krah was under pressure as investigator due to the arrest of one of his parliamentary assistants on charges of espionage. Jian G. stands accused of a serious case of espionage on behalf of a foreign secret service as he was described by the federal prosecutor’s office as an "employee of a Chinese secret service.” Despite these accusations, the AfD leadership duo, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla reaffirmed their support for Krah but indicated their plans to minimise his public presence at party rallies. Campaign posters bearing his face and details of his candidature would also be withheld. 

Conclusion
The German voters opted for an alternative solution by choosing the conservatives and Far-Rights due to the growing dissatisfaction against the governing coalition of liberals and Greens. The current status-quo of Germany led by the coalition was faced with an economic decline, disagreements over migration, defence and devoid of a strong foreign policy. Germany did not opt for a snap election as demanded by the opposition.

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