NIAS Europe Studies

Photo Source:
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1393, 23 July 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Hungary: Right Wing wins; Support shifts to Centre

  Govind Anoop

By Govind Anoop

Introduction
The incumbent Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party won the overall vote with 11 seats out of 21 but only secured 44 per cent of the votes, an eight per cent drop from the 52 per cent they earned in the 2014 and 2019 European Parliament elections. This was the worst result for the 5-time Hungarian leader, who has been incumbent since the country joined the EU and the result comes just weeks before the country is set to take their 6-month EU Presidency from 1 July. The result comes along with the rise of an alternate leader in Peter Magyar, whose centre-right Tisza secured almost 30 per cent of the votes, allowing them to be the leading opposition party with a vote share three times bigger than the previous opposition alliance. This secures Magyar’s position as a direct competitor and alternative to Orban’s reign in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections. The loss in support comes in contrast with the victories secured by Orban’s ideological allies Giorgia Meloni of Italy and Marine Le Pen of France.

Performance of major parties in the past two EU parliament elections
Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz)
The party is led by its five-time Prime Minister Viktor Orban and follows right-wing, nationalist and populist policies and has been described as Eurosceptic as seen in its departure from the European People’s Party group in 2021. As defined by the duration of his leadership, Orban has maintained a strong hold on Hungary’s political landscape. In the 2014 European Parliament elections, they secured 12 seats and 51.48 per cent of the vote and in the 2019 parliamentary elections, they secured another majority with 13 out of 22 seats and 52.56 per cent of the votes. They continued to dominate the political scene through to 2023, leveraging their control over media and state resources, to the point that studies have identified that Fidesz is in control of 70-80 per cent of the media in Hungary. While popular among many for their nationalist policies and economic stability, Fidesz faced criticism for perceived corruption and autocratic governance especially since COVID-19. As a result of this and Magyar’s rise as an alternate, while the Fidesz party did win in the 2024 elections, they lost support, only securing 11 seats and 44 per cent of the votes.

Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)
While the MSZP has various leaders, their most significant one is Bertalan Tóth. The party has positioned themselves as Center-left and social-democratic. While MSZP has been a powerhouse in Hungarian politics, it has been struggling to regain its former influence. While they managed to secure two seats and 10 per cent of the votes in 2014, in the 2019 parliamentary elections, they only managed to secure a single seat with 6.68 per cent of the votes, showing a significant decline from their past strength. The party has less support from the public, as it seen as weak due to internal divisions and a lack of strong leadership, all of which result in its inability to challenge Orban and the Fidesz party as seen in its performance in 2024, where it only secured two seats and eight per cent of the votes.

Democratic Coalition (DK)
Led by Ferenc Gyurcsány (Ferens yorkshan), the Democratic Coalition (DK) has shown itself as a Center-left to left-wing, pro-European party. The party was formed in 2010 as a breakaway from the MSZP and DK has emerged as a significant opposition force. In their inaugural 2014 European Parliament elections, they secured two seats and almost 10 per cent of the votes and saw improvement in 2019, securing four out of Hungary's 21 seats and 16 per cent of the votes. They have been growing in influence, positioning themselves as a key pro-European voice in contrast with Orban’s anti-EU policies. While gaining support, especially among liberal and pro-European voters, DK is also polarizing due to Gyurcsány's (yorkshan) controversial political past during his Prime Ministership from 2004-2009, where he allegedly gave false statements about the state of Hungary’s economy. However, in 2024, the party only secured eight per cent of the seats and two seats, as a result of the public favouring other opposition parties.

TISZA (Respect & Freedom Party)
After breaking ties with the Fidesz party, Peter Magyar joined the relatively small Respect & Freedom party and by forming several alliances, he transformed the party into the leading opposition which pushed for anti-corruption and pro-transparency. He evidenced the various corruption scandals Orban’s Government was accused of and promised himself to be a transparent and open leader. Magyar's party is newly established, so it has not yet participated in any of the European Parliamentary elections in 2024. However, seen as a fresh and promising alternative to the established parties, with the potential to attract voters dissatisfied with both the ruling party and traditional opposition, the Respect & Freedom party won seven seats and 30 per cent of the votes, emerging as a clear opposition to the dominance of the Fidesz party and Magyar positioning himself as a direct alternative to Viktor Orban.

Issues in voting
Exposure of corruption
Magyar, a former associate of Orban’s reign had played the role of a whistleblower and gave details into incidents of corruption under the latter’s governance, which includes his ex-wife and former Law Minister Judit Varga and former president Kaitlyn Novak’s presidential pardon to Endre Konya, who was found guilty of covering up incidents of child molestation and his testification to the case involving bribery charges against the President of the Court Bailiffs and the former Secretary of State for Justice.

Effective and Energetic campaign
Magyar orchestrated Hungary's largest anti-government demonstrations since Orban's comeback in 2010 with a furious campaign. As a former government insider, he exposed corruption within the prime minister's self-described illiberal government by focusing on scandals involving the ruling party and the economic vulnerabilities that have been present since 2020.

Anti-Governmental sentiments
Non-liberal rule from Orban since Covid-19 and a promise to move away from the current Government’s perceived authoritarian leadership from Magyar swayed minds. This was especially evidenced by the State TV election debate, the first in 18 years, where Magyar promised himself as an alternate and more democratic form of leadership to the people of Hungary. Freezing of funds: In 2021, Hungary saw a majority of its EU funds frozen due to Hungary’s law deficits. While 10 billion of the 30 billion was released by the European Commission, Magyar promises to regain the entirety of the funds for Hungary

Fidesz has been extremely Anti-immigration and has opposed EU's asylum friendly policies as evidenced by Orban's campaign and his clashes with the EU over the Granada Declaration. The migration policy of the Fidesz party is marked by stringent regulation and a firm opposition to immigration, especially from non-European nations. Fidesz, who prioritizes both cultural preservation and national security, has put in place measures like border fencing and stringent asylum processes to deter illegal immigration. The party advances the idea that Hungary faces challenges related to its economy, society, and security from unchecked migration. Additionally, Fidesz's policy includes advertisements that emphasize the possible risks posed by immigration, which resonates with a sizable segment of the voters in Hungary that places a high value on cultural identity and national sovereignty. An essential component of Fidesz's political agenda has been this strategy.

Hungary's EU elections in 2024 were greatly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, which also heightened discussions about foreign policy and national security. Concerns about regional stability were heightened by the war, which affected voter priorities toward defense and adherence to EU policy. As a result of criticism of Fidesz, the ruling party in Hungary, for its long-standing relations to Russia, opposition parties have emphasized the importance of deeper EU integration and solidarity with Ukraine. Public opinion was also influenced by the conflict's economic effects, which included inflation and disruptions to the oil supply. Consequently, there was an increase in voter participation in the elections, and the key themes influencing the electoral landscape were national security and EU ties.

However, most voters, including Fidesz supporters and opposers, want the country to stay in the EU as a member but the split comes in deciding what each voter wants from the Union. While some voters want more co-operation with EU, others wish for Hungary to establish its sovereignty and interact with the EU as a separate organisation.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead
In the aftermath of the European Elections, Fidesz remains the dominant force in Hungarian politics, although facing increasing criticism and a stronger and more united opposition. The traditional left-wing parties, MSZP and DK, struggled but showing signs of resurgence, particularly DK. Meanwhile, emerging figures like Magyar and the TISZA party are beginning to disrupt the political landscape, offering new choices for voters. The Members of the European Parliament of the TISZA party have also agreed to sit with the Centre Right European People’s Party, of which Orban was ejected in 2021. The demography of voters for the EU Parliamentary elections in Hungary shows a mix of ages, education levels, and socio-economic backgrounds, reflecting diverse opinions on the EU. Younger voters, often with more progressive and pro-EU views, contrast with older voters who prioritise national sovereignty. Education plays a role, with more educated individuals typically supporting the EU, while those with lower education levels might lean towards euroscepticism. Urban areas like Budapest tend to favour pro-EU policies due to greater exposure to EU benefits, while rural regions, facing economic challenges, often support nationalist parties. Wealthier citizens, benefiting from EU integration, generally back EU membership, while economically disadvantaged groups may prefer Eurosceptic agendas. The Voting was also influenced by gender, since more and more women support social concerns that conform to EU norms. Generational political beliefs in Hungary are shaped by its history, which includes its communist past and its transition to democracy. Traditional and social media have a big influence on voter behaviour as well. In conclusion, the Hungarian electorate in 2024 illustrates the continuous discussion about Hungary's place in the EU, reflecting a complicated combination of age, education, location, socioeconomic level, gender, and historical experiences.

References
“Hungary's Orban to take over EU presidency as many issues hang in balance”, Business Standard, 30 June 2024
“Orbán’s party takes most votes in Hungary’s EU election, but new challenger scores big win, Associated Press, 10 June 2024
“BTI Project Transformation Index”, BTI, 11 June 2024
“How Orban Put Hungary Between China, Russia and the West”, Bloomberg, 4 May 2024
“Orbán rejects the European Union’s migration agreement and defends keeping asylum seekers out of EU territory”, El Pais, 22 December, 2023
“Hungarian law forcing migrants to seek asylum abroad is illegal, top EU court rules”, Politico, 22 June 2023
“EU holds its breath as Hungary’s Orban vows to ‘Make Europe Great Again’”, France24, 28 June 2024
“Behind hostile immigration propaganda, Hungary welcomes foreign workers”, Le Monde, 20 May 2023

 

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts