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CWA # 1394, 23 July 2024
NIAS Europe Studies
Immigration Backlash Fuels Far-Right Surge in Italy's EU Vote

  Sayeka Ghosh

By Sayeka Ghosh
Introduction
In the 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy, voters turned out in significant numbers, reflecting the growing importance of EU-level politics in the national consciousness. The election saw a marked shift towards right-wing and Eurosceptic parties, with immigration emerging as a central issue that galvanised the electorate.

Italy's electoral system for European Parliament elections follows a proportional representation model with preferential voting. The country is divided into five constituencies: Northwest, Northeast, Centre, South, and Islands. Voters can express up to three preferences within the list of their chosen party, provided that if they express more than one preference, the choices must be for candidates of different genders. The voting process took place over two days, allowing for greater nationwide participation

In terms of turnout, there was a notable increase compared to previous European elections. While the 2019 elections saw a turnout of 54.5 per cent, the 2024 elections witnessed a surge to approximately 62 per cent. This increase in voter participation can be attributed to factors like heightened political tensions surrounding immigration issues, growing concerns about Italy's role in the EU, and intensive campaigning by various political parties.

How they voted
The voting demographics revealed interesting patterns. There was a significant mobilisation of younger voters, particularly in the 18-30 age group, who showed increased engagement with EU-level politics. This demographic was split between far-right parties appealing to nationalist sentiments and more progressive, pro-EU parties emphasising climate change and social issues. Older voters, particularly those over 65, tended to favour more established parties, both on the centre-right and centre-left. However, there was also a noticeable shift among this demographic towards parties with stronger stances on immigration control.

Geographically, the vote highlighted the continuing divide between northern and southern Italy. Northern regions, particularly those with strong manufacturing and export-oriented economies, showed stronger support for right-wing and Eurosceptic parties. These parties campaigned on platforms of protecting Italian economic interests within the EU and stricter immigration controls. Southern regions, while also showing increased support for right-wing parties, maintained significant backing for centre-left and populist parties that promised to address economic disparities and unemployment through EU funding and programmes.

Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia - FdI) was led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The party emerged as the clear winner, securing 28.5 per cent of the vote and 22 seats in the European Parliament. The party League (Lega) led by Matteo Salvini, lost some ground compared to previous elections but still managed to capture 17.8 per cent of the vote and 14 seats. Democratic Party (Partito Democratico - PD), the main centre-left opposition party received 18.2 per cent of the vote, which equals 14 seats. Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle - M5S), the anti-establishment party continued its decline, securing only 12.5 per cent of the vote and 9 seats. Forza Italia (FI), the centre-right party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi obtained 7.2 per cent of the vote and 5 seats. The party Action-Italia Viva is the centrist coalition that received 6.8 per cent of the vote, gaining 5 seats. Green Europe (Europa Verde) also known as the environmentalist party secured 3.5 per cent of the vote and 2 seats. Other various smaller parties collectively received the remaining 5.5 per cent of the vote but did not meet the threshold for seat allocation.

Performance in the last three elections
The European Parliament elections in Italy over the past decade have witnessed significant shifts in the political landscape, reflecting changing national sentiments and broader European trends. In 2009, the political landscape was dominated by Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PdL) party, which secured a commanding victory with 35.26 per cent of the vote. The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) trailed behind with 26.13 per cent, while the anti-immigration Northern League, then a regional party and Berlusconi's ally, performed strongly with 10.2 per cent. This election reinforced Berlusconi's political dominance and signalled growing support for right-wing policies, particularly on issues like immigration.

The 2014 election marked a dramatic reversal. The Democratic Party, under the leadership of Matteo Renzi, achieved a historic victory, securing an unprecedented 40.8 per cent of the vote. This marked the zenith of centre-left politics in recent Italian history. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) made its debut in European elections, capturing 21.2 per cent of the vote, reflecting growing disillusionment with traditional politics. Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the successor to the PdL, managed to secure 16.8 per cent, while the right-wing Northern League obtained only 6.2 per cent. This election seemed to indicate a shift towards more progressive, pro-EU politics in Italy.

However, the 2019 election saw another seismic shift in Italian politics. The League rebranded as a national right-wing party under Matteo Salvini's leadership, surged to first place with 34.3 per cent of the vote, capitalising on anti-immigration sentiment and Euroscepticism. The Democratic Party, despite losing significant ground, maintained second position with 22.7 per cent. The Five Star Movement experienced a notable decline, falling to 17.1 per cent. Forza Italia continued its downward trend, securing only 8.8 per cent. Notably, the far-right Brothers of Italy party began its ascent, obtaining 6.4 per cent. This election marked a clear swing back towards right-wing, Eurosceptic politics, setting the stage for the further rise of far-right parties in subsequent years.

This evolution over the three elections reflects the volatility of Italian politics and the broader European trend of traditional parties losing ground to more extreme or anti-establishment movements. The rise of far-right parties, particularly on the issue of immigration, has been a consistent theme, while the centre-left has struggled to maintain its once-dominant position. The decline of the Five Star Movement illustrates the challenges faced by anti-establishment parties once they enter the realm of governance. Italy's complex relationship with the European Union has remained a central theme throughout these elections, with parties across the spectrum offering varying visions of Italy's place in Europe.

Issues in voting
The 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy were characterised by various pressing issues that shaped the political discourse and influenced voter decisions. Different parties focused on specific topics to appeal to their base and attract new supporters. The complexity of these issues and their perceived impact on Italian society played a crucial role in determining the election outcome.

Immigration emerged as the dominant issue of the campaign, particularly benefiting right-wing and far-right parties. The Brothers of Italy, which secured the largest share of votes, centred its campaign on a hardline anti-immigration stance. They promised to drastically reduce incoming migration flows, arguing that uncontrolled immigration was putting a strain on Italy's social services and changing the cultural fabric of the country. The party proposed stricter border controls, faster deportation processes for illegal immigrants, and a renegotiation of EU migration policies to ensure a more equitable distribution of asylum seekers across member states.

 The Lega, while no longer the leading party, maintained a strong position by focusing on similar anti-immigration rhetoric. They emphasised the need to protect Italian identity and prioritise the needs of Italian citizens over those of immigrants. Both these parties successfully tapped into growing public concerns about integration, crime rates, and the perceived economic impact of immigration, particularly in regions experiencing high unemployment.

Economic issues and Italy's relationship with the EU formed another crucial aspect of the campaign. The ongoing debate about Italy's economic policies within the constraints of EU fiscal rules was a key focus. Right-wing parties, including the Brothers of Italy and the Lega, advocated for greater economic sovereignty and less EU interference in national fiscal policies. They promised to challenge EU budget constraints and push for policies that would prioritise Italian economic interests, even if they conflicted with EU regulations.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party and the new centrist coalition positioned themselves as responsible pro-EU voices. They emphasised the importance of Italy's place within the EU for economic stability and growth. These parties focused on reforming EU institutions from within, promising to work towards a more flexible interpretation of fiscal rules while maintaining Italy's commitment to the European project. They highlighted the benefits of EU membership, including access to the single market and EU funds for development and infrastructure projects.

The issue of youth unemployment and brain drain continued to be a significant concern, particularly in southern Italy. The Five Star Movement, despite its overall decline, tried to maintain relevance by focusing on these issues. They proposed ambitious job creation programmes, investments in education and vocational training, and initiatives to encourage young Italians to stay in the country or return from abroad. The party also emphasised its commitment to fighting corruption and promoting transparency in governance, themes that had previously resonated with younger voters.

Climate change and environmental protection gained prominence in this election, particularly among urban and younger voters. Green parties and left-wing coalitions made this a central part of their campaign, proposing ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions, investing in renewable energy, and promoting sustainable urban development. They argued that Italy could become a leader in green technology and sustainable tourism, creating new jobs while addressing environmental concerns. This focus helped these parties to improve their performance compared to previous elections, especially in major cities and among more educated voters.

The question of national sovereignty versus European integration was a recurring theme across party lines. While right-wing parties framed this in terms of protecting Italian interests against EU overreach, pro-EU parties emphasised the need for Italy to have a strong voice within EU institutions to shape policies favourable to Italian interests. This debate touched on various aspects, from economic policy to defence and foreign affairs.

The role of Italy in EU foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia and China, was another point of contention. Right-wing parties generally advocated for a more independent foreign policy, often expressing scepticism towards EU sanctions on Russia and calling for more balanced economic relations with China. Pro-EU parties, in contrast, emphasised the importance of a united European front in dealing with global powers and maintaining strong transatlantic ties.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath continued to influence the political discourse. Parties across the spectrum addressed the ongoing economic recovery, with debates focusing on how to best utilise EU recovery funds. Right-wing parties criticised the perceived inefficiencies in fund distribution and called for more national control over recovery strategies. Centre-left and centrist parties emphasised the need for continued European cooperation in health policy and economic recovery, pointing to the success of joint vaccine procurement and the establishment of the recovery fund as examples of effective EU action.

Digital transformation and technological sovereignty emerged as new themes in this election. Parties discussed Italy's position in the growing competition between the US and China in areas like 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and data protection. There were calls for greater European autonomy in key technological sectors, with different parties offering varying approaches to achieve this goal.

The issue of democratic backsliding in some EU member states and its implications for the future of the Union also featured in the campaign. Pro-EU parties emphasised the need to protect democratic values and the rule of law across the bloc, while Eurosceptic parties framed this as unwarranted interference in national affairs.

Regional disparities within Italy, particularly the enduring North-South divide, remained a significant issue. Southern Italian voters were particularly receptive to promises of increased EU funding for infrastructure and development projects. Parties across the spectrum offered different visions for addressing these disparities, ranging from greater autonomy for prosperous northern regions to increased centralised efforts to boost the southern economy.

The ageing population and the sustainability of the pension system was another topic that resonated with older voters. Different parties proposed various reforms to address this challenge, from raising the retirement age to increasing immigration to support the workforce.

Lastly, cultural and social issues played a role in the campaign, albeit to a lesser extent than economic and immigration concerns. Debates around LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality, and the role of the Catholic Church in public life helped to differentiate parties along socially conservative and progressive lines.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy, characterised by the surge of far-right parties fueled by an immigration backlash, mark a significant turning point in Italian politics. This shift reflects broader trends across Europe, where concerns about immigration, national identity, and economic insecurity have bolstered support for populist and Eurosceptic movements. The success of the Brothers of Italy, building on the earlier rise of the League, signals a potential long-term realignment of Italian politics towards the right. However, the volatility observed in recent elections suggests that this trend is not irreversible.

Several factors will likely play crucial roles in the future elections. The ability of far-right parties to maintain their appeal beyond the immigration issue will be critical, particularly as they face the challenges of governance. The response of centre-left and moderate parties in addressing voter concerns about immigration, economic stability, and Italy's relationship with the EU will be equally important. The ongoing impact of global events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its economic repercussions, will continue to shape voter priorities. Additionally, the evolution of the Five Star Movement's position and the potential emergence of new political forces could further alter the landscape.

Climate change and environmental issues, which gained traction in the 2024 election, may become increasingly central to future campaigns, especially among younger voters. The north-south divide within Italy and the broader question of regional disparities will likely remain significant factors. Furthermore, the EU's ability to address member states' concerns about sovereignty and economic policy will influence Italian attitudes towards European integration.

References
“2019 European Election Results: Italy,” European Parliament, 25 June 2004
Chiaramonte, Alessandro, Vincenzo Emanuele, Nicola Maggini, and Aldo Paparo, “Populist Success in a Hung Parliament: The 2018 General Election in Italy,” South European Society and Politics, 03 September 2018
Bordignon, Fabio, and Luigi Ceccarini, “Five Stars and a Cricket. Beppe Grillo Shakes Italian Politics,” South European Society and Politics, 21 February 2013
Segatti, Paolo, Monica Poletti, and Cristiano Vezzoni, “Renzi's Honeymoon Effect: The 2014 European Election in Italy,” South European Society and Politics, October 2015

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