NIAS Global Politics Early Bird

Photo Source: Reuters/BBC
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1562, 10 January 2025
NIAS Global Politics Early Bird
Lebanon’s new President: Who is Aoun? Will he be able to address the mounting challenges?

  Ayan Datta

On 9 January, Lebanon’s National Assembly elected Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Joseph Aoun as the country’s 14th President. Despite initially trailing in the legislature’s multi-stage electoral process, Aoun emerged victorious in the second round, securing 99 out of the Assembly’s 128 votes. In his inaugural speech, the 60-year-old army officer pledged to “uphold the state's exclusive right to bear arms,” and combat systemic corruption and sectarianism. In a tacit criticism of Hezbollah, Aoun stressed that the Lebanese State (and not the Iran-backed group) would remove the “Israeli occupation” from the country’s southern frontier.

The election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s President signalled a potential turnaround moment for the crisis-pronecountry, marking an end to over two years of presidential vacancy. 

Who is Joseph Aoun?
Born in Beirut in 1964, Aoun joined the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in 1983 and became its commander-in-chief in 2017, following a distinguished military career. Although the Army General has positioned himself as politically neutral, the nature of his military operations has given him a reputation for being pro-Western. He was involved in LAF operations to expel ISIS and its Syrian franchisee, the Al-Nusra Front, from eastern Lebanon. As army chief, he is the USA’s lynchpin for implementing the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, exacerbating his image as Washington’s preferred candidate. 

How is the President elected and what is Lebanon’s peculiar political system? 
Lebanon’s political system is based on the unwritten 1943 National Pact that became the foundation for the country’s independence from France. Centred around the theory of “confessionalism,” the system’s institutional design distributed political offices among religious sects based on their proportion in the State’s population. Framed by independent Lebanon’s founding elites, the system envisioned a power-sharing mechanism that would split important political offices between Christians and Muslims, aiming to address the insecurities of both communities by one unable to dominate the other. Under the resulting scheme of sectarian representation, Lebanon’s President must always be a Maronite Christian (which Aoun is), the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the national parliament, the National Assembly, a Shia Muslim. Parliamentary representation would follow a similar principle, with the 128-member Assembly evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, with communal electorates and sub-divisions for sub-denominations in both groups. 

The Lebanese system is vulnerable to political deadlocks, with the two-year stalemate around the Presidency being the most recent example. The resulting “immobilism” or paralysis in administrative and political decision-making has made Lebanon vulnerable to external interference, with foreign actors looking to secure their interests by backing favourable factions. Making matters worse, Lebanese politicians, frustrated with the stalemate-ridden system, have welcomed outside influence to break political deadlocks at home. Additionally, the sectarian representation model institutionalised ethnic and sectarian identities, discouraged cross-sect cooperation and forced sectarian leaders to prioritize political maneuvering over inclusive policymaking. The power-sharing arrangement was completely inflexible, leaving the system incapable of accommodating the rise in the Muslim population, which rose from 51 per cent in the 1950s to over 70 per cent today, and the exponential growth of Shia political power under Hezbollah since the 1980s.

What was the immediate background to the Presidential election?
Aoun’s successful electon was preceded by 12 failed efforts. Sectarian conflicts and foreign influence were chiefly responsible for the stalemate. Hezbollah and its political ally, the Amal Movement, blocked attempts by Christian factions and independent parties, who preferred anti-Hezbollah and anti-Islamist candidates. In the most recent failed attempt of June 2023, the Iran-backed party withdrew from the Assembly during the first round of voting when it saw that opposition candidate Gebran Bassil (former International Monetary Fund official, widely believed to be pro-Western) appeared to be leading. With the quorum disrupted, Speaker Nabih Berri, a member of the Amal party — a Hezbollah ally — refused to call a second session, leading to the present deadlock. 

In the 9 January elections, however, Hezbollah could no longer play spoilsport. Despite fielding Suleiman Frangieh — a confidant of Syria’s former President Bashar Al-Assad — in the first round, the Iran-backed party withdrew their nominee and eventually aligned with Aoun, who secured a second-round victory with 99 votes. With its influence diminished following its devastating war with Israel, the regime change in Syria, and Iran’s growing vulnerability to Israeli attacks, Hezbollah refrained from imposing a deadlock.

Is there an international support to Aoun? 
Aoun’s election was welcomed by the LAF’s Western partners, including the US, France and EU states. The Western and Gulf States allegedly ran a clandestine diplomatic campaign to support his candidacy, with Saudi sources claiming that American, French and Saudi diplomats had made financial assistance to Lebanon conditional on his victory. Post-election, US President Joe Biden was the first to make a congratulatory call to Aoun after his appointment, demonstrating his support. Israel and Turkey echoed Washington’s posture, expressing hopes of “good neighbourliness” and “regional stability,” respectively. Curiously, despite promising to decouple Syria from Iran, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) has not commented on the situation yet. 

What are the challenges for the new President? 
The new President will face a daunting list of challenges in his six-year tenure. Aoun’s immediate challenge will be political. As President, he will have to resign from the military while securing the ceasefire agreement on the border. Additionally, he will have no navigate Lebanon’s fragmented political space, where Hezbollah — his chief adversary on the battlefield — still enjoys influence. Economic recovery will be his next hurdle. With the government paralysed, the Lebanese State was powerless to confront the financial crisis ravaging the country since 2019. Aoun will have to revive Lebanon’s depleting liquidity reserves, rescue the Lebanese Pound which has lost 98 per cent of its value in the past year, and address its double-digit unemployment, which makes its Muslim population pliable to recruitment by Hezbollah. Security challenges will prove most difficult for Aoun. With the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire slated to enter review on 26 January and merely 3 out of 60 occupied villages evacuated so far, Aoun will have to expand the LAF’s operations to implement the deal rapidly. Modernising the LAF, presently an underfunded and underequipped force, will be an additional challenge. The stakes are extremely high for Aoun. Should he fail, Hezbollah may rearm, and Israel may resume its offensive, leading to a re-intensification of regional conflict.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan