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CWA # 1570, 17 January 2025
NIAS Global Politics Early Bird
Who is Nicolás Maduro? And what next for Venezuela after his third term?

  Vaneeta

On 10 January, Nicolás Maduro took oath for the third time as president of Venezuela after a rigged election last year July. In his oath-taking ceremony, he said, “This is a great victory for Venezuelan democracy,” which is quite the opposite of what the opposition and people believe. On 28 July, Maduro was declared the presidential election winner by the government-controlled electoral commission, the National Electoral Council (CNE). However, unlike previous elections, they failed to provide detailed vote counts, and violence and protests erupted in the country.

A brief note on Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro was born in 1962 in a working-class Roman Catholic family.  He was a bus driver by profession and later became a union leader. However, his socialist link goes to his student days in Cuba when he was a member of the Socialist League. In 1990, Maduro joined MBR-200, which is the civilian wing of Chávez's insurrectional military movement. His political career started in 2000 when elected to Venezuela’s national assembly.  He served as a foreign minister and vice president in Hugo Chávez's government. He was a part of the Chávista political movement since the beginning; in 2013, Hugo Chavez died of cancer, and Nicolas Maduro became the president as Chávez's successor.

A brief note on Venezuelan politics  
Venezuela was a Spanish colony, and had periods of democracy, authoritarianism, and military rule. After independence in 1821, there was political instability throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. In 1958, the country transitioned to democracy with the Punto Fijo Pact, in which major political parties agreed to have democratic governance.

In a significant shift during 1998,  Hugo Chávez became president with the Bolivarian revolution to establish the "Fifth Republic.” His regime was part of the pink tide in Latin America, and emphasised on a socialist agenda, wealth redistribution, populist policies, extensive constitutional reforms, and firm anti-American foreign policy. However, it also divided the society between the middle class, his supporters, and the elite, his detractors.

When Nicolás Maduro succeeded Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan economy heavily depended on oil and had a polarised society. Its economy plunged under his leadership when oil prices declined, and a combination of mismanagement, corruption and international sanctions brought economic crisis. Hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and mass emigration followed the financial crisis. Maduro has failed to carry the legacy of his predecessor, a charismatic and loved leader by the masses.

A brief note on Venezuela’s  opposition   
Venezuelan opposition are the parties and leaders who have opposed Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. For the 2024 presidential election, the opposition united to run for election. María Corina Machado was selected as the presidential candidate from the united opposition, which is called The Unitary Platform. However, in June 2023, she was banned from holding office for accusations of fraud and tax violations. Therefore, The Unitary Platform announced a new candidate diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia.

Edmundo González Urrutia is a politician and former diplomat. He is described as a centrist who has supported talks with Maduro to find a solution. He even served as an ambassador under Chavez's government until 2002. He was seen as the family man who gave hope to people during the election campaign. After the July election, he was seen as the rightful winner. Moreover, the US, EU, Canada, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and many more recognised him as president-elect after Maduro was declared the winner, calling election fraud and conveying that evidence supported González win. Following the arrest warrant issued on 2 September, he was given asylum in Spain. Since then, he has been living in exile, travelling as president-elect from exile to America to gather support.       

María Corina Machado is seen as the leader of the opposition, and González himself refers to the same. Despite not being the presidential candidate, she has led the movement and is seen as a symbol of hope, courage and perseverance for millions of Venezuelans.

Nicolás Maduro’s third term: Issues and Challenges
Nicolás Maduro began his third term on 10 January after six months of election dispute.

His third term faces multiple challenges, starting with the economic troubles amid increased sanctions. The US has placed new sanctions on eight Venezuelan officials and announced a bounty of $ 25 million for the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. Later, the EU, Canada, and the UK followed us and imposed new sanctions on 15 officials.

Second is the worsening human rights crisis. The UN reported on 9 January that 16 political leaders and human rights activists were arrested before the ceremony. Protesters have been arrested and put on criminal charges. Also, recently, foreigners have been captured and accused of being mercenaries. It is believed that these foreign nationals will be used as bargaining power later amid strained relations with the international community.

Third is the worsening migration crisis. Around 8 million Venezuelans have left the country since Maduro took over office a decade ago. The neighbouring countries hosting these migrants, like Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, are struggling, and it's putting strain on the political and economic conditions of the hosts.

What next for Venezuela?
Edmundo González Urrutia, who is in exile, has promised to return to the country when the time is right and take office. However, it is feared that he might become the new Juan Guaidón, who announced himself as president in 2019 and had international support but could not bring change to the country. Even if González formed a government in exile, it would not be able to have power within Venezuelan territory.

Establishment is a big actor; without its support, Maduro would not be in power.  And the political opposition would not bring Maduro down with the military’ support.  To keep the military happyMaduro has appointed its members to important positions.

Countries like China, Russia, and Cuba support Maduro. Many believe that there is an increase in Chinese influence inin Latin American internal politics. This will be something to see in 2025 with Donald Trump becoming the US President.

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