NIAS Polar & Ocean Studies

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NIAS Polar & Ocean Studies
Frozen Nightmare: A Pandemic Hibernating in the Arctic Ice

  Shreya Jagadeesan

The Significance and Threats of the Melting Arctic:

The Arctic, known for its frozen landscapes and severe conditions, is gaining global attention as climate change causes unprecedented melting of ice. The Arctic region, centred on the North Pole, is immensely important from geological, historical, and geopolitical perspectives. Along with opening up new potential for economic expansion, the melting of the ice has triggered a race among nations to assert influence and control over the strategically crucial area. The melting glaciers may pave the way for opportunities in the global system, but it could also trigger a new fatal pandemic.

The melting ice in the Arctic is mostly due to global climate change caused by human activity. It is warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and whatever occurs there has a footprint on everything. The environmental repercussions are far-reaching, affecting not only the Arctic ecology but also adding to global sea-level rise. As the ice melts, numerous major powers have strengthened their presence in the region, worsening the situation. All of the bacteria and viruses that were frozen beneath might be revived. The return of these pathogens might mean the end of humanity. Recently, researchers revealed remarkable genetic compatibility between viruses isolated from lake sediments in the high Arctic and potential living hosts. Notable viruses including SARS-CoV-2, Ebola, and HIV may have been transmitted to humans through interaction with other animal hosts. As a result, a formerly ice-bound virus may reach the human population via zoonotic transmission. The viruses may have exploited the frozen ice as a time traveller. Diseases from the past may return to the current world, and there is no guarantee that modern species will be immune.

All of it is frozen in permafrost, which is defined as any earth substance that has been at or below 0 degrees Celsius for two or more years. It does not melt, but thaws. When the icy layer melts and the land remains, the thawing will result in the release of massive amounts of greenhouse gases. There is an unfrozen layer above the permafrost, known as the active layer, that serves as a new home when unfrozen water levels rise enough to activate certain biological activities. However, among these viruses, RNA is unlikely to recover. The best-known DNA virus, and is smallpox. Smallpox, the worst disease in recent history, can be revived, but because immunizations have eradicated it, it may not pose a threat. Anthrax is the germ that could cause an outbreak, as it killed thousands of reindeer in Siberia in 2016 and infected about a dozen people.

Although many of these risks are being discounted due to the availability of antibiotics, the emerging threat may be the antibiotic resistance crisis. There was an outbreak in Madagascar only a few years ago. And that's antibiotic-resistant Pasteurella pestis or plague. The antibiotic-resistant pandemic will kill more people each year than the coronavirus pandemic. The Arctic, long regarded as an industrial frontier, is changing into a ticking time bomb, unleashing diseases that have been trapped in time for centuries.

Geopolitical Rivalries and Economic Interests:

The rivals fighting for this region, and the majority of the international system that views it as an asset are oblivious that it has been frozen for a very long time, and that melting it will bring about a significant change. As a result, expecting it to be an opportunity while ignoring the reality of what was frozen in it could be a curse. Major powers are becoming more and more interested in the region, although melting glaciers are perceived as a threat to the entire world. Building outposts and stepping up patrols, Russia is increasing its military presence in the Arctic, the US and Canada are also taking initiatives. These activities endanger the delicate Arctic ecosystem and exacerbate environmental degradation in conjunction with related infrastructure. Despite the framework provided by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, territorial disputes still exist. Rivalry is heightened by Russia's strong claims, demonstrated in 2007 by the placement of a flag at the North Pole. The Arctic's economic potential for shipping, tourism, and resource extraction comes with advantages, but it also comes with environmental hazards that exacerbate climate change and ice melt. Sustainable development is essential for the long-term health of the area and the stability of the global climate because it strikes a balance between economic interests and ecosystem protection.

In addition to being a threat to global warming, the warm Arctic serves as a military staging area for the US and Russia; similar to the Cold War, this might be the start of a new conflict. Due to its enormous gas and oil reserves, it is also very important to them. Russia has a third more arctic sites than the US and NATO put together, and it is utilizing the area to test its hypersonic weapons. Russia possesses 24000 kilometres of coastline and roughly half of the polar region. Over the past ten years, Russia has been able to rapidly expand its military in the region due to its territorial domination.

Russia also views the Norwegian border as being extremely important because they have nuclear submarines stationed in Kola, which is quite close to the border, and they require a clear path free of obstructions in case of confrontation to launch those submarines. Vladimir Putin was spotted in 2023 during a military parade when he reiterated Russia's maritime philosophy, which calls for the country to become a major maritime force and use all available measures to safeguard its interests, the most important of which is the Arctic. Retaining strategic importance and abundant resources in the Arctic. Divers undertook the significant task of placing a ceremonial Russian flag beneath the North Pole in 2007, but the UN Commission only confirmed the majority of Russia's claims in February 2023. The claim would give Russia an extra 1.7 million square kilometres of the seabed, and although this decision is not the last word on rights to the Arctic, Russia estimates that this claimed territory contains more than 17.3 billion tonnes of oil and 85.1 trillion cubic meters of gas.

On par with this, the US released an Arctic strategy in 2022, it reflects the priority that they place on the Arctic, it is embedded with their national security strategy, in that the Arctic is singled out as one of the seven issue areas of priority alongside Indo- pacific and middle east. The strategy reaffirms that the US seeks an Arctic region that is peaceful, stable, prosperous and cooperative. It includes four mutually reinforcing pillars, climate change and environmental protection, sustainable economic development, international cooperation, governance and security.

There are other players in this game besides the US and Russia. Russia stated that they see this as a chance to link China's maritime Silk Road with the Northern Sea route. In 2018, China declared itself to be a near-arctic state even though its northernmost region is more than 1450 km from the Arctic Circle. In essence, China seeks to exploit natural resources and establish maritime lanes.

It is feasible to manually resurrect these lethal viruses, which might potentially create a new avenue for bioweapons. For instance, a 48,500-year-old "zombie virus" that was submerged beneath a frozen lake in Russia has been brought back to life by French scientists. Conspiracy theories exist regarding the coronavirus's creation as a man-made bioweapon. If this is true, then spreading these viruses once they have resurfaced is not very difficult.

The Arctic's Dual Narrative

The Arctic's melting ice signals a dual narrative, melting ice that takes us to two opposite ends of the spectrum, it presents prospects for growth economically, but on the other, it raises the possibility of a catastrophic epidemic. Ancient viruses and bacteria that have been frozen for generations pose a threat that is often neglected as great powers struggle for resources and strategic advantages. Permafrost that has thawed serves as a time capsule, allowing ancient viruses to potentially resurrect and unleashing threats like Anthrax. When economic opportunity and impending peril combine, priorities must be reevaluated. It is critical to address environmental issues, devise plans for sustainable growth, and prepare for the possibility of a new, catastrophic pandemic in the rapidly changing Arctic. These are all related to the necessity to strike a fine balance between human aspirations and the capacity to withstand natural forces.



 

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