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CWA # 1589, 3 February 2025
NIAS Polar and Ocean Studies
NATO & The Arctic: A New Cold War

  Padmashree Anandhan

Formed in 1949 in collective response to the threat of Soviet aggression, NATO’s founding members were Canada, Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, and the US, five Arctic States. They held national interests in the Arctic and recognised its strategic significance. The participation of these states laid the groundwork for NATO's consideration of the Arctic as a crucial frontier.  

What are the recent developments?
On 01 October, Mark Rutte became the 14th Secretary General of NATO after Jens Stoltenberg. He was a former Prime Minister of the Netherlands with domestic and international accomplishments in security, defence, employment and social affairs, and economics. He strongly supports global and transatlantic cooperation.

On 04 April, NATO commemorated its 75th year with a steadfast commitment to a peaceful Arctic. The High North has been woven into NATO's trajectory since its inception, with a nexus of geopolitical importance and strategic interests influencing its evolution. In April, the 75th year celebrations marked the membership of Finland and Sweden underlining the dynamic partnership, cooperation, and adaptation. Finland and Sweden joined NATO marking a total of seven Arctic states in NATO. 

The 2023 Vilnius Summit Communiqué pledged to continue joint exercises and Arctic surveillance coordination. These were partly enacted with recent exercises in the Norwegian Sea. However insufficient to secure NATO's northern flank.

In recent years, the Arctic has emerged as a focal point for geopolitical competition more than ever along with security challenges. Rapid climate change has led to the melting of ice caps, opening new shipping routes, access to natural resources, and potential military activity. Russia's firm activities of military stockpile and exercises in the Arctic have elevated fears about security and stability in the region. Stalling of the operations in the Arctic Council have added challenges to NATO. It’s strategy in the Arctic emphasizes the importance of addressing both traditional and emerging security threats, ensuring the region remains stable and secure. 

In September 2023, NATO’s defence chiefs meeting in Oslo focused on Finland and Sweden's membership and how Nordic countries will have the responsibility to create “NATO’s deterrence in the northern areas.” In response, in March 2024, the Norwegian Arctic held a joint exercise with soldiers from 13 countries called Steadfast Defender with 90,000 troops from each NATO member state. It was the largest exercise since the Cold War.

What are the major issues?
First, modernisation post-World War II and concern over Soviet attack. Following World War II, the northern States realised the military and civilian significance of the Arctic, which led to the establishment of scientific and military bases. In the decades that followed, the region became one of the most militarized spaces of the Cold War. The postwar innovation of military technology altered the province. Meanwhile, the Soviet industrialization policies directed by leaders Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin, made the Russian Arctic the most militarised. This includes warships, icebreakers, nuclear submarines, and ballistic weapons. This was considered by the NATO and the West as a direct threat. This build-up of forces effectively in NATO’s backyard, that is Norway, led the High North to become a central issue of NATO’s security strategy throughout the Cold War. A report released in 1950 called the Arctic Ocean and the zone around Norway, Iceland, Greenland, and the Northwest Territory of Canada as hostile for naval and submarine forces. Norway was becoming a key concern as possibility of a soviet attack heightened.

Second, Sweden and Finland as new points of escalation. In February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to the Arctic Council members' statement to pause work with Russia. At the same time, Sweden and Finland reversed the neutrality policy and joined in 2023 and 2024. Both being Arctic states affected the balance of power in the north. Why? Because NATO lacks an official Arctic policy and discussions to have one have been fragmented. However, Russia’s belligerence has impacted Arctic affairs making it clear that it is no longer at the periphery of the West like twenty years before but at centre of NATO.

Third, Arctic warming. Arctic warming began in 2006 and experts argue that Russia’s efforts to revitalise its northern areas pushed Norway to increase its engagement with NATO. Russia also began rapidly developing its Arctic regions primarily for the exploitation of resources. As Arctic warming accelerated, retreating sea ice began to open access to Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR), a maritime corridor that was probable to reduce shipping times between Europe and Asia.

Lack of Arctic policy. NATO currently has no official Arctic policy nor a command devoted to northern affairs, which some experts have called problematic due to the possibility that this will impede NATO’s ability to “adequately navigate revived strategic competition in the region.” Over the past 15 years, NATO officials have dismissed ideas of developing a dedicated body to oversee Arctic projects. In 2020, Camille Grand, NATO’s assistant secretary for defence investment, said: “A separate Joint Force Command (JFC) for the Arctic was unnecessary because the Organization did not have any other regional working groups.” Experts arguing for a greater NATO presence in the Arctic say that it is needed to clearly show Russia that NATO has its eye on the region and deter further Russian aggression. Despite NATO lacking an Arctic position, its members do seem to be invested in the Arctic since the Ukraine invasion. This could be evidenced by the often-held exercises and operation of warships in the Arctic.

What does it imply?
Improved cooperation and defence. Efforts to improve cooperation and defence are also ongoing in the European Arctic. Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Finland and Sweden’s bids to join NATO, the Nordic states discussed forming a joint Nordic air force to improve communication and defence between Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland. According to journalists and military sources, the project has received even more support since 2022. One of the Nordic news, High North News observed that there was a high-level military presence of the US and NATO forces in Iceland and Norway

pointed out in the summer of 2023 that there is a larger than normal military presence of both American and NATO forces in Iceland and that Norway is working on developing an air command centre in northern Norway in collaboration with the US and UK which called itself “The Arctic’s nearest neighbor” in 2013 and 2015 policy documents.

NATO’s quandary. There has been much discussion about what NATO should do in the face of growing Arctic tension but NATO furthering its military presence in the Arctic is imprudent as it will aggravate Russia. However, Russia has proven to not consider the territorial integrity of sovereign states, and has been increasingly aggressive in the past. This can be applied to the Arctic and indicates the need for a swift response if serious tensions emerge in the north.

A new cold war in the Arctic. The tensions began to build in 2006 and have risen in the last decade to the Cold War level due to increasing military and derailing diplomacy or dialogue in the Arctic. Hard security is at the vanguard of Northern European policy agendas. While NATO does not have an official Arctic policy, it is well present in the region through its member states in the Arctic. Some scholars argue that the Cold War never came to an end in the Arctic as most of the military installations still remain.

What are the key trajectories?
Coping with the Arctic warming. NATO must fight out climate emergency. This becomes more critical than ever due to seven out of eight Arctic states being NATO allies. Worsening climate change impacts such as thawing permafrost, eroding coastlines, and wildfires give the possibility for future conflict in the Arctic over natural resources and Russian aggression especially in Svalbard, Arctic and Baltic Oceans. There is an insufficiency in NATO to take account of indigenous groups' consultation and to work united against Russia in the Arctic. In countering climate extremities, knowledge sharing from such groups and research collaboration can help strategize NATO’s operations to counter climate change.

Arctic is no longer at NATO’s periphery. For a long time, the Arctic was seen as remote and exterior for global courses but this is changing now with more participation from middle and superpowers. With growing Russian aggression, climate change, expansion of NATO and flow of investments across the international countries, the Arctic is no longer poled away. Developments in the Arctic do create an impact outside and are expected to amplify in the coming decades. Thereby, political and geopolitical changes are quickly unfolding placing NATO in a pressure point to take key decisions to secure the alliance members. Re-emergence of the Arctic in the centre stage would have far-reaching consequences altering the security order of Europe as NATO engages more.

About the Author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.

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