NIAS South Asia Brief

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CWA # 1603, 24 February 2025
NIAS South Asia Brief
US aid cut in Nepal, the Starlink launch in Bhutan, TNLA-Military Negotiations in Myanmar and India-Bangladesh tensions

  South Asia Brief Team

Click here for the previous issue: 
"Student Protests against Social Media Bill in Nepal, Rescue from Scam Centres in Myanmar, Violence in Bangladesh and Adani’s Exit in Sri Lanka," NIAS South Asia Brief, 17 February 2025

NEPAL THIS WEEK
The US Aid Cut, FATF Grey List, and Safety Concerns of Students in India
Ditipriya Ghosh & Abhishikta S

Four major developments took place in Nepal during the week. The first one was relating to the US aid cut – a global development with a particular impact on Nepal. The second one was related to the global watch dog – FATF (Financial Action Task Force) placing Nepal in the grey list due to financial irregularities and challenges in governance issues. Third was the continuing concerns and responses from Nepal over the security of its students studying in a college in Odissa in India.

EXTERNAL: NEPAL & US
The US Aid Cut: Implications for Nepal
On 18 February, The Kathmandu Post reported on the USA’s cancellation of aid for Nepal.  There has been a cancellation of dollar 39 million aid for Nepal’s federalism and biodiversity project from the USA’s side which also includes dollar 20 million for fiscal federalism and dollar 19 million for conservation. This decision has also been a matter for other countries like Cambodia, Bangladesh, Serbia and India. It’s an order by President Trump to review all USA- funded assistance through the state department and USAID. This resulted in over 300 NGOs, consultancies and nonprofits relying on USAID funding to face disruptions for at least three months. (“US cancels dollar 39 million in aid for Nepal’s federalism and biodiversity projects”, The Kathmandu Post, 18 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2025/02/16/us-cancels-39-million-in-aid-for-nepal-s-federalism-and-biodiversity-projects )

On 18 February, The Kathmandu Post reported on abrupt suspension of funds had led to the termination of 36 staff nurses working in 18 federal and provincial hospitals across Nepal. The nurses were crucial in promoting breastfeeding, a practice that has been on the decline. The fund freezing has also disrupted several key health programs, including neonatal care, outbreak investigation training, and maternal and childcare initiatives that is linked to the Sustainable Developmental Goals. Health experts warn that years of investment and progress could unravel unless the government steps in with increased funding to sustain critical programs. (“USAID funding freeze: Ministry terminates jobs of 36 staff nurses in federal, provincial hospitals”, The Kathmandu Post, 18 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/health/2025/02/17/usaid-funding-freeze-ministry-terminates-jobs-of-36-staff-nurses-in-federal-provincial-hospitals )

On 18 February 2025, The Kathmandu Post posted that the rolling back of American aid is calling they need for Nepal to be more self-reliant. The suspension of U.S. aid to Nepal, following Donald Trump’s return to office has reignited debates on foreign assistance. While the aid has critically supported sectors like health, education and governance, it has also fostered dependency and inefficiency. The recent cancellation of U.S. funding has reflected concerns over aid mismanagement. However, this could be a chance for Nepal to project itself as a self-reliant country. The real issue lies in Nepali government’s failure to effectively use the available funds. If cautious steps are taken by Nepal it can prove to be a boon or in no time it might stand out to be a curse for Nepal’s recent democratic advancements. (“Time for some self-help”, The Kathmandu Post, 18 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/editorial/2025/02/17/time-for-some-self-help )

On 22 February, The Hindu reported that the US. has frozen 500 million USD Millenium Challenges Corporation (MCC) grant for Nepal, which was intended for electricity and road infrastructure, signed in 2017, this was the largest American aid package for Nepal. Analysts warn that this decision could have geopolitical consequences, particularly in Nepal’s relation with India and China. The MCC had previously sparked controversy in Kathmandu, caught between US-China tensions. The freeze now poses a setback to Nepal’s developmental goals. (Sanjeev Satgainya, “ Trump’s MCC funds freeze a setback for Nepal’s developmental aspirations,” The Hindu , 22 February 2025, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trumps-mcc-funds-freeze-a-setback-for-nepals-development-aspirations/article69247609.ece)

SECURITY
Nepal back on FATF Grey List
On 22 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that Nepal has been added to Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list for the second time, following its plenary meeting in Paris from February 17-21. The country was previously on the list from 2008-2014. The grey list includes countries with deficiencies in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing. Nepal must work and investigate these issues to avoid blacklisting which could lead to severe financial restrictions. Financial minister Bishnu Paudel acknowledged the failure to meet FATF requirements but aims and expressed confidence to exit the list soon. Despite prior warnings Nepal missed its October 2024 deadline to implement reforms. Nepal previously exited the grey list in 2014 by amending its Anti-Money Laundering Act, however the current listing highlights lapses in enforcement despite legal reforms. (Anil Giri, “ It’s official: Nepal falls back on the FATF grey list,” The Kathmandu Post, 22 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2025/02/22/it-s-official-nepal-falls-back-into-fatf-grey-list)

Safety Concerns of Nepali students in India
On 22 February, The Kathmandu Post reported about India addressing the safety concerns of the Nepali students and catering to their needs. It has been shared by the Indian Foreign Minister that the Nepali students are integral pertaining to India-Nepal people to people relations. Assurance has been provided has been provided by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs about the safety and well-being of the Nepali students. It was stated by MEA spokesperson , Randhir Jaiswal that the Indian Government is working closely with Odhisa authorities and Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology. After the incident was reported and came to light , the Odhisa police has arrested multiple individuals , high-level committee has been formed and measures have been taken to assist Nepali students returning home. So far 162 students have returned via Birgunj border. (“India promises safety for Nepali students,” The Kathmandu Post, 22 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2025/02/21/india-assures-safety-of-nepali-students)

POLITICS
Madhav Nepal dismisses party merger rumours
On 22 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that CPN (United Socialist) chairperson Madhav Nepal has denied possibility of merging his party with others, dismissing such claims as baseless rumours. His statement follows recent remarks by Maoist leader Barsha Man Pun, who suggested a likely merger due to ideological similarities, but Madhav Nepal emphasized that his party remains focused on strengthening itself rather than merging. The Maoist centre led , by Pushpa Kamal Dahal , has attempted merger with other leftist parties , but its efforts wained after electoral gains in 2024. Despite electoral challenges, the Unified Socialist stands by its decision, viewing it as necessary to uphold progressive communist ideals. The party now plans mass gatherings to strengthen public support.
(“Madhav Nepal rules out possibility of party merger”, The Kathmandu Post, 22 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2025/02/21/madhav-nepal-rules-out-possibility-of-party-merger )

EXTERNAL
Surge in products imported from Nepal
On 17 February, The Indian Express reported about the surge in soyabean oil imports from Nepal that have raised the concerns. Notably imports from Nepal saw an unprecedented 14-fold increase, despite Nepal being a marginal producer. Brazil being a major producer a decline from dollar 849.19 million to dollar 549 million during the same period could be noticed. Experts from the Indian side suggests that Nepal may be exploiting the tariff advantages under 2009 Nepal-India Treaty which allows duty free access to Indian Markets. The sharp rise in imports from Nepal which has jumped from 2.81 million USD in 2023 to 38. 15 million USD in 2024 has drawn scrutiny, Indian officials have inspected Nepalese industries over the years for potential breaches of origin rules. Despite queries, the Commerce and Industry Ministry has yet to respond on the matter. (Ravi Dutta Mishra, “A 14-fold jump in soyabean oil imports from Nepal triggers red flags in India”, The Indian Express, 17 February 2025, https://indianexpress.com/article/business/commodities/a-14-fold-jump-in-soyabean-oil-imports-from-nepal-triggers-red-flags-in-india-9839693/ )

The Nepal-China Bonhomie
On 16 February 2025, The Rising Nepal posted a celebratory piece on the 70 years of diplomatic bond between Nepal and China. Both the nations have further taken steps to advance key agreements and work upon shared commitments. As per history their ties were bound by trade, culture, security and high level exchanges but with time there have been many evolutions in terms of economic cooperation, connectivity and people to people engagement. A strategic change in Nepal’s Foreign policy was marked when formal diplomatic ties between the two countries took place on August 1 in the year 1955. Nepal and China’s support went hand in hand for eachother as in Nepal played role in China’s securing of UN membership and was among the first to recognize People’s Republic of China and Tibet as its integral part. Further treaty signed between BP Koirala and Zhou Enlai in the year 1960, maked the beginning of bilateral cooperation. China in the long run has been a key development partner for Nepal. Though there have been challenges but both the countries have managed to keep their ties wrong and enhance it. (Ritu Raj Subedi, “Nepal-China Ties Reach Milestone”, The Rising Nepal, 16 February 2025, https://risingnepaldaily.com/news/57192 )

BHUTAN THIS WEEK
Starlink Launches, Bhutan's Forex Reserves Surge, and Cultural Preservation of the Drukpas
Astha Panda

The following key developments occurred in Bhutan last week. First, Starlink by SpaceX became operational in Bhutan, with an aim to fill the gap of connectivity in remote and rural parts of the country. Providing plans with speeds from 23 Mbps to 110 Mbps, Starlink's launch can revolutionize internet penetration in underserved regions. Second, Bhutan's foreign exchange reserves jumped to USD 700.51 million as of December 2024, a year-over-year growth of 15.39 per cent, led primarily by external grants and loans. This indicates the dependence on such sources over economic productivity. Third, Japan committed to a loan to build Druk Bindu I, Druk Bindu II, and Jomori hydropower projects to increase Bhutan's renewable energy capacity and address increasing domestic energy needs. Also, the Drukpas of Lepchakha, a people of Bhutanese origin living in the Buxa Tiger Reserve in the West Bengal state of India, continue to hold on to their special cultural traditions and practices, helping constitute the rich Bhutanese cultural heritage.

The Starlink launch by SpaceX in Bhutan
On February 12, it was reported in Kuensel Online that SpaceX's Starlink was launched in Bhutan. The satellite internet service is expected to fill the connectivity gap in rural and remote communities, usually slowed down by the country's difficult mountainous landscape. Starlink provides two main plans: the Residential Lite plan at Nu 3,000 monthly with speeds from 23 to 100 Mbps, and the Standard Residential plan at Nu 4,200 monthly, offering speeds from 25 to 110 Mbps. Starlink has the potential to revolutionize internet connectivity in underserved areas. But the increased price over local providers may be a consideration for some users in deciding on this option. This action is a major step towards improving digital connectivity and access in Bhutan, particularly for those in regions where conventional internet infrastructure cannot reach. (Divya Bhati, “Starlink now available in Bhutan: When is India launch, plans, speed   and all you need to know”, India Today, 12 February 2025, https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/news/story/starlink-now-available-in-bhutan-when-is-india-launch-plans-speed-and-all-you-need-to-know-2678752-2025-02-12#:~:text=in%20Bhutan.%20India-,availability,-is%20still%20uncertain)

ECONOMY
Surge in Bhutan's Forex reserves 
On 18 February, a report in Kuensel Online said that Bhutan's foreign exchange reserves reached USD 700.51 million as of December 2024, marking a 15.39% increase year over-year. The reserves include USD 509.7 million in convertible currency and INR 16.12 billion, covering 18.12 months of essential imports. The finance ministry projects reserve to climb to USD 783 million by June 2025, covering 20 months of essential imports. This increase is attributed to external grants and loans, highlighting the country's reliance on these sources rather than economic productivity. (Bhutan's Forex Reserves Surge, "Forex Reserves Reach USD 700 Million, Up by 15 Percent," Kuensel Online, 18 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/forex-reserves-reach-usd-700-million-up-by-15-percent/ )
    
EXTERNAL
Japan funds Bhutan's hydropower srojects
On 18 February, a report in Kuensel Online said that Japan agreed to provide a loan for constructing Druk Bindu I (18 MW), Druk Bindu II (8 MW), and Jomori (90 MW) hydropower projects. The loan agreement, signed by Bhutan's Ambassador to Japan, Major General Vetsop Namgyel, and Japan's Ambassador to Bhutan, Keiichi Ono, includes an Official Development Assistance loan of Yen 13.688 billion (approximately USD 92 million). This initiative aims to enhance Bhutan's renewable energy capacity and meet growing domestic energy demands. The projects are part of Bhutan's efforts to promote sustainable economic growth and energy security. (“Japan Funds Bhutan's Hydropower”, Kuensel Online,18 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/japan-provides-loan-for-construction-of-druk-bindu-i-ii-and-jomori-hydropower-projects/)

ENERGY
Bhutan's hydropower Generation Spikes by 11 per cent in 2024
On 21 February, a report in Kuensel Online said that Bhutan's hydropower generation increased by 11per cent in 2024. The country generated 7,500 million units of electricity, up from 6,750 million units in 2023. This growth is attributed to the commissioning of new hydropower plants and favorable weather conditions. The increased generation has boosted Bhutan's electricity exports to India, contributing significantly to the country's revenue. The report highlights the importance of hydropower in Bhutan's economy and its role in achieving sustainable development goals. (“Bhutan's Hydropower Generation Spikes by 11% in 2024”, Kuensel Online, 21 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/news/hydropower-generation-spikes-by-11-percent-in-2024)

ENVRIONMENT
Black-necked Crane Population Rises Amid Habitat Decline
On 18 February, a report in Kuensel Online said that Bhutan's black-necked crane population reached a record 709 birds in the 2024–2025 count, nearly doubling since 1987. Phobjikha remains the primary winter roosting site with 640 cranes, while Bumdeling saw a decline to 59 cranes. Despite the population increase, key habitats like Bumdeling and Khotokha face degradation due to human activities and wetland loss. Conservation efforts are ongoing to restore these habitats and sustain the crane population. These efforts include habitat restoration projects and awareness programs to minimize human interference. Authorities are also monitoring the cranes' migration patterns to better understand and protect their needs. The report emphasizes the importance of continued conservation work to ensure the survival and growth of the black-necked crane population in Bhutan amidst environmental challenges. (“Black-necked Crane Population Rises Amid Habitat Decline”, Kuensel Online, 18 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/black-necked-crane-population-increases-but-key-habitats-see-decline/)

SECURITY
Bhutan's Growing Concerns over Heroin Smuggling
On 21 February, a Kuensel Online report stated that Bhutan is turning into a conduit for heroin smuggling. Paro International Airport Customs authorities foiled three attempts at heroin smuggling over the past few months (December, January, and February), confiscating 31.5 kg of the banned contraband. The report points towards the growing sophistication in smuggling activities and the requirement of stronger security protocols to thwart drug trafficking through Bhutan. The authorities have urged tighter controls at the border and improved cooperation with global agencies to stem the problem. The increasing trend in heroin smuggling poses serious challenges to Bhutan's law enforcement officials, highlighting the need for heightened vigilance and enhanced counter-smuggling measures to stop this illegal trade. (“Bhutan's Role in Heroin Smuggling”, Kuensel Online, 21 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/news/is-bhutan-becoming-a-smuggling-conduit-for-heroin)

SOCIETY
Bhutan Targets 30 per cent Women's Representation by 2029
On 21 February, a report in Kuensel Online said that Bhutan aims to increase women's representation in decision-making roles within the civil service to 30% by 2029. The project, focused on women in public administration, addresses barriers hindering women's participation in leadership positions. Bhutan is one of three countries chosen based on their socioeconomic context and commitment to gender parity. The study highlights the need for institutional commitment, structural reforms, and targeted training programs to bridge the leadership gap and promote gender equality in public administration. (“Bhutan Targets 30% Women's Representation by 2029”, Kuensel Online, 21 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/news/bhutan-targets-30-womens-representation-by-2029)

Prioritising Children's well-being in Bhutan
On 21 February, Kuensel Online noted that Bhutan, in collaboration with UNICEF, has made significant strides in ensuring children's welfare. Some of these remarkable achievements include over 98% immunization coverage, period-friendly schools, and child protection desks nationwide. In addition to this, monastic school students are now learning English, computer literacy, and numeracy. Bhutan has also initiated its first education national policy and developed a shock-responsive, inclusive social protection system. Despite all this, challenges still exist, including the capacity to attract donor capital and emerging new public health issues such as lead poisoning and micronutrient malnutrition. (“Prioritising Children's Well-being in Bhutan”, Kuensel Online, 21 February 2025, https://kuenselonline.com/news/prioritising-childrens-well-being-in-bhutans-development-agenda)

Drukpas of Lepchakha: Bhutanese Heritage in India
On 19 February, Kuensel Online reported that the Lepchakha Drukpas, a Bhutanese community, live in the Buxa Tiger Reserve in West Bengal, India. Though Indian citizens, they preserve Bhutanese culture, language, and traditions. The people are distributed in three villages: Tashigang, Dashigang, and Pasakha, each having its own Lhakhang (worship place). Tourism has become a significant source of revenue, with local shops and homestays propping up the economy. Drukpas continue to celebrate Bhutanese festivals and adhere to practices handed down from ancestors. Their efforts to retain their distinctive heritage while adapting to Indian society are a testament to the community's resilience and commitment to roots in the face of the evolving socio-economic environment. (“Drukpas of Lepchakha: Bhutanese Heritage in India”, Kuensel Online, 19 February 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/drukpas-of-lepchakha-a-community-of-bhutanese-heritage-in-india)

BANGLADESH THIS WEEK 
India-Bangladesh tensions & Operation Devil Hunt’s ‘Success’
Emma Rose Boby, Souparnika Suresh, Souparno Rakshit

There were three major developments in Bangladesh this week. First, growing tensions between India and Bangladesh over the shared borders as well as Bangladesh’s engagements with China and Pakistan. Second, the rescue of Bangladeshi migrants from Libya with the assistance of BRAC. And third, the arrests of over 7,310 people due to Operation Devil Hunt.

POLITICS
Sheikh Hasina blames Chief Advisor Yunus for terrorism during virtual interaction with victims
On 19 February, Sheikh Hasina, the deposed Prime Minister, blamed Chief Advisor Prof. Mohammed Yunus for unleashing terrorism in the country following the deaths of police officers during the July Uprisings. This comes after a speech on 7 February after 32 Dhanmondi was burnt down, where Sheikh Hasina claims that Yunus had planned to kill her as well as an OHCHR report which held her responsible for the violence during the July Uprisings. (“Yunus planned to kill me, says Sheikh Hasina in speech”, The Hindu, 7 February 2025, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/bangladesh-has-become-a-land-of-terrorists-and-fighters-says-sheikh-hasina-after-demolition-of-residence-of-sheikh-mujibur-rahman/article691870)

Concern over potential extra-judicial killings
On 20 February, Bangladesh Security forces shot two men who were firing at the officers for attempting to arrest them during an operation targeting a spate of robberies. This has raised concerns over potential extra-judicial killings. Bangladesh is seeing a rise in crimes after former prime minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power in August 2024 against her iron-fisted rule by mass protests. During her regime, there were allegations of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. Citing histories of heavy-handed tactics failing to improve law and order, human rights organizations like Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK) have warned against excessive use of force and proceed with caution to avoid loss of lives. During the operation, a heavy military presence was observed with the families of the deceased questioning the use of lethal force. 

Repatriation of the trafficked: Homecoming of the Bangladeshi migrants
On 21 February, reaching the wrong destination, migrants landed up in Libya , where they were trapped by the notorious trafficking mafia and subjected to brutal torture. The returnees are Mostakim Sarkar from Dhaka, Mozammel Haque from Sherpur, Jihad Fakir, Roman Howlader and Yasin Howlader from Madaripur. The victims were tortured and would be released only if the trafficker’s demand for a ransom were fulfilled. In order to save these migrants their family had to give up the last bit of their savings. Such a rescue has been possible because of the BRAC’s Migration Program and also help from the Wage Earners’ Welfare Board and US-based Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Hero Network. They were instrumental as well bringing back eight other Bangladeshi trafficking victims. BRAC has provided assistance to over 35,000 people in 2024 and has rescued 40 Bangladeshis from different countries. Collective awareness and efforts are what is needed to crack down such local trafficking nexus otherwise such incidents will continue to persist. 

Multiple arrests made due to Operation Devil Hunt
On 22 February, 7,310 arrests were made in the last two weeks, following the government’s attempts to restore law and order after attacks in Gazipur. Allegedly, many of those arrested were affiliated with either the Awami or its associates. A day after the operations was launched, 274 people were arrested. According to the Chief’s Advisor’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam, "Many of those responsible have already been arrested. Those who haven’t will be caught soon and we will ensure they receive the maximum punishment." (Over 1,000 arrested in Bangladesh under nationwide joint forces operation”, The Hindu, 10 February 2025, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/people-arrested-in-bangladesh-under-nationwide-joint-forces-operation/article69201551.ece)

EXTERNAL
INDIA: Fencing leading to tension amidst Indo-Bangladesh relationship
On 17 February, India and Bangladesh will join for the annual conference the 55th border conference between the between the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) the agenda that will be the key topic is the construction of single-row fence by India to close gaps between the Indo-Bangladesh border. The talk will focus as well on topics like prevention of drugs, weapons to illegal crossing of borders especially in case of the Myanmar nationals. A recent suspension of the fencing has taken place as it has been objected to by the BSF to avoid any more friction between the two countries.

CHINA: Engagement between China and Bangladesh                      
On 20 February, in the wake of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between Bangladesh and China is gaining new momentum. Both sides acknowledged their position of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit and peaceful co-existence. The Bangladesh envoy ensures that the Bangladesh Investment Summit scheduled for April 7 to 10 in Dhaka will be a harbinger of opportunities of return on investment for the Chinese. To mark their diplomatic relations both the countries will undertake joint programs like release of logo, medical tourism and recognition of personalities for their contribution to the Golden Jubilee of diplomatic ties.  

INDIA: BGB-BSF: Border Killings cannot be normalized
On 20 February, the first meeting between India's Border Security Force and the Border Guard Bangladesh after the ousting of the Hasina-led regime. Where Bangladesh was vocal of ensuring no border killing from the Indian side. The fencing is giving rise to a row between the two countries where the Indian force claimed that the already-built single-row fences were as per the pass agreements which should be abided by BGB where the other countered by mentioning of the joint survey by border guards of both the countries and a unilateral decision by India cannot be supported. The meeting dealt with cross border crimes, including the smuggling of Phenethyl, Yaba, other narcotics  and arms. 

INDIA: Chief of Indian Army’s concern over Pakistani Army delegation’s visit in Bangladesh
On 20 February 2025, the Times of India reported that the Chief of Indian Army, General Upendra Dwivedi expressed concerns over the reports of the recent visit of a Pakistan Army-ISI delegation to areas in Bangladesh near the Siliguri Corridor in West Bengal. The Siliguri Corridor or ‘Chicken’s Neck’ is a strategically sensitive site for India. Gen Dwivedi stressed the assertive stance India has followed with Pakistan particularly with regards to Jammu and Kashmir, which he reiterated as an integral part of India post-Article 370 abrogation in 2019. He asserted that India can follow an aggressive stance towards Pakistan if need arises to communicate India’s intentions. He also emphasized the importance of keeping the military out of political controversies and any “animosity” between India and Bangladesh was not in either of the countries’ best interests, calling Bangladesh a “strategically important” neighbor. 

US: Trump claims that 29 million USD went to unknown Bangladeshi firm
On 22 February, President Donald Trump claimed that 29 million USD of USAID went to a Bangladesh firm with only 2 people, and called them scammers. This is following reports of multiple Bangladeshi NGOs struggling due to the withdrawal of USAID, and having to find alternative sources of funding on short notice. (Porimol, Palma, “NGO funding: Bangladesh needs to look for new sources”, The Daily Star, 17 February 2024, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/ngo-funding-bangladesh-needs-look-new-sources-3825941)

SOCIETY
The Power of the Mother Tongue
On 21 February, the language movement of 1952 is being celebrated as the 73rd anniversary of the Ekushey February where the humble sacrifice of the martyrs are being remembered as it was the force that led to the fight of the self-conscious movement for establishing identity. But the irony is that the true worth is still not realized and enforced as Bangla (Bengali) remains confined to literature. English still predominates as scientific and scholarly works are mostly in it due to its universal significance and acceptance. In spite of judicial decree or an act of parliament mandating the use of Bangla at all levels, offices, and forums in the country and despite the existence of the Bangla Language Implementation Act, 1987 it still struggles for its existence. In the wake of the Silver Jubilee celebration it becomes inevitable that the true spirit of the Language Movement is fostered ensuring that all mother tongues that are getting forgotten and on the verge of extinction need to be given its due.

MEDIA
Hazards of misinformation
On 23 February, journalists are trying to separate truth from false information as it is a source of stress, outrage and conflict and this malpractice became rampant during the pandemic where platforms did give out false information regarding medical remedies.  As per professionals from Rumor Scanner's, an organization started with six people became a team of 20 in the last five years, the organization published 72 articles in the beginning which turned into 2,669 articles last year. Such misinformation is motivated on the lines of politics, religion, ethnicity as well as confirmation bias adds to the bag. The introduction to media literacy at the primary level is a must which would ensure rational acceptance and negation of information. Where Bangladesh has been typically attacking religious institutions. The  organization take special care of politics ,religion ,national issues knowing these are the most volatile of all the other factors .The problem is not with misinformation but the unawareness towards its consequences .All information is not fact as facts asks for prolonged investigation only then does it become reliable source point, especially in the media sector it needs to avoid click bait journalism  and provide the authentic fact as they are being relied upon by such a big mass. Rumor Scanner mentioned that they can proactively work if they have better funding. 

MYANMAR THIS WEEK
TNLA-Military Negotiations, Japan’s Economic Aid and Release of Workers from Scam centers
Vishnudev S & Ashutosh Rath

Three major developments took place in Myanmar this week. First, Myanmar legalizes working of foreign private security firms. Second, India and Myanmar is planning to resume bilateral border trade. Third, Myanmar junta aligned with The Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) have started releasing Chinese scam workers to Thailand. 

ECONOMY 
India and Myanmar plan to restart trade
On 16 February, The Assam Tribune reported that India and Myanmar are planning to restart border trade. A discussion was held between Myanmar's Deputy Commerce Minister U Minn Minn and India's Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, Jitin Prasada at New Delhi on 14 February. The report mentions that the meeting focused on improving connectivity and trade between the two countries, the Rupee-Kyat trade settlement mechanism which decreases dependence on third party currencies like US dollar and strengthening bilateral ties. (“India, Myanmar strengthen trade ties, plan to restart border trade”, The Assam Tribune, 16 February 2025, https://assamtribune.com/national/india-myanmar-strengthen-trade-ties-plan-to-restart-border-trade-1568356)

Japan's Economic Aid to Rohingya
On 19 February, The Daily Star reported that, the Embassy of Japan made a press release stating, the Japan government concluded a deal with the World Food Programme in providing 1.8 million USD towards life saving food assistance. As the Rohingya community is entirely dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the aid would act as an support for an approximate of 191,000 providing with malnutrition prevention programmes and income generating activities. Japanese Ambassador Saida Shinichi highlighted Japan's commitment towards humanitarian support in the region. (UNB, Dhaka, "Japan to provide $1.8m aid to Rohingyas”, The Daily Star, 19 February 2025, https://www.thedailystar.net/rohingya-influx/news/japan-provide-18m-aid-rohingyas-3828026)

Chinese Investments key to Wa State's Economic Development
On 20 February, The Irrawaddy reported about the  United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar's largest Ethnic Armed Organization's recently concluding the six-dat annual meeting, where it adopted a nine-point strategy that includes boosting economic growth through the Myanmar China Economic Corridor. The meeting in Pangkham, Wa's capital city also focussed on various sectors other than the economy such as education, healthcare, political reforms etc. The UWSA said, it would reopen the Mansai mine, a major source of Wa income. ("Wa State Aims to Boost economy through Chinese Projects", The Irrawaddy, 20 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-to-boost-economy-through-chinese-projects.html)

POLITICS
TNLA and Myanmar Regime Peace Talks Failed
On 19 February, The Irrawaddy reported that peace talks between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar’s regime have failed. The junta military airstrikes on TNLA territory continued during the talks, which made the negotiation challenging. The Chinese delegates opined that negotiations are complex and suggested both sides to prepare new proposals. (“TNLA: Peace Talks With Myanmar Junta Have Failed”, The Irrawaddy, 19 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/politics/tnla-peace-talks-with-myanmar-junta-have-failed.html)

Myanmar legalizes foreign private security firms
On 19 February, The Irrawaddy reported that the Myanmar junta passed ‘Private Security Services Law’ on 18 February that allowed foreign private security firms to operate in Myanmar. The report says that this law is to legitimise Chinese security firms in the country, thereby protecting Beijing’s interests in the country including its Belt and Road initiative projects. Observers also argue that the law bypasses constitutional restrictions on foreign troops, strengthens the regime’s grip on power, and raises concerns about national sovereignty and Chinese influence. (Maung Kavi, “Junta Passes Law Allowing Chinese Security Firms to Operate in Myanmar”, The Irrawaddy, 19 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmar-china-watch/junta-passes-law-allowing-chinese-security-firms-to-operate-in-myanmar.html)

Myanmar's military faces hurdles in tackling Scam Centers
On 21 February, an opinion piece in The Irrawaddy highlighted that the Myanmar junta is struggling to combat scam centers in Myawaddy because of its connections with the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), which gains from the businesses. Following a crackdown in northern Shan State, scam syndicates moved to Myawaddy, drawing international attention. China has been pressuring the junta to act against human trafficking, and Chinese nationals getting scammed. In 2023, Thailand reported that over 1,000 Chinese nationals had been detained by these syndicates. Thailand has also taken steps such as power disconnection for scam centers and probing officials' involvement in the scams. The author says that although the BGF appears ready to send home the victims, online fraud is still a problem. The author opines that junta tangling with the BGF can be a risk, because it may lose control over Myawaddy. He also says that the China's stance with respect to the junta has been weak and not very conclusive in ending syndicates of frauds. (They Htar Maung, "Myanmar's Junta's Hands are Tied in Scam Center Crackdown", The Irrawaddy, 21 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/myanmar-juntas-hands-are-tied-in-scam-center-crackdown.html)

SECURITY
Military airstrike continues
On 20 February, The Irrawaddy reported that military airstrikes have killed atleast 53 and another 80 injured. The military targets included schools, religious sites, hospitals and camps. Airstrikes were reported in the regions of Magwe, Sagaing, Mandalay, and Tanintharyi, as well as in the states of Rakhine, Kachin, Shan, Mon, and Karenni (Kayah). The report by Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica highlights that approximate 3,292 airstrikes, happened since August 2024 and around 1,749 people were killed. (“Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Kill 53 Civilians in 10 Days”, The Irrawaddy, 20 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-airstrikes-kill-53-civilians-in-10-days.html)

KIA and PDF capture a military base in Bhamo 
On 20 February, The Irrawaddy reported that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and People's Defence Force (PDF) have captured another junta military base in Bhamo township. They have attacked junta’s Infantry Battalion 236 and reports say that they are planning to expand the attacks to other bases. On the other hand, military is bombing the township with warplanes and drones, which made it un-inhabitable. (Hein Htoo Zan, “KIA, PDF Capture More Myanmar Junta Bases in Key Kachin Town”, The Irrawaddy, 20 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/kia-pdf-capture-more-myanmar-junta-bases-in-key-kachin-town.html)

Sittwe Banks closed as Junta Prepares for Attack
On 21 February, The Irrawaddy reported of the Arakan Army opening fire on the Rakhine State capital of Sittwe as a result the Banks were shut down. Sittwe residents are trapped, with the regime blocking exits by land and water while fortifying nearby villages. It is home to an engineer battalion, regional operations command headquarters, several infantry and police battalions, and an artillery battalion. (Hein Htoo Zan, "Banks close in Sittwe as Myanmar Junta Braces for Attacks", The Irrawaddy, 21 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/banks-close-in-sittwe-as-myanmar-junta-braces-for-attacks.html) 

SOCIETY 
Myanmar begins releasing Chinese scam forkers
On 20 February, The Irrawaddy mentioned a report by AFP that Myanmar handed over the first batch of Chinese scam workers to Thailand. The Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), allied with the regime said that it is planning to release about 10000 people linked to the scam. 600 people will be released in coming few days. The move is because of the pressure from Thailand and China to shut down scam centres. Various reports mention that the workers have been tortured and beaten up by the supervisors in the scam centres. (AFP, “Myanmar Returns First Batch of Chinese Scam Workers to Thailand”, The Irrawaddy, 20 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-returns-first-batch-of-chinese-scam-workers-to-thailand.html )

On 21 February, The Irrawaddy reported that the Karen Border Guard Forces (BGF) conveyed about its blockade of the scam hub in Myawaddy. Lt Colonel Naing Maung Zaw informed the media about the ally's plan to raid the scam centers in the Myawaddy town. The report also mentions about the handling of online scam centers and fraudulent investment schemes in the KK park in Myawaddy township. ("Myanmar Junta Allies Blockade Scam Hub", The Irrawaddy, 21 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-allies-blockade-scam-hub.html)

SRI LANKA THIS WEEK
The new budget, SJB-UNP Talks, and Adani’s exit from Sri Lanka
Rithik Shetty, Vani Vyshnavi, Suchitra Jakkala

Five major developments took place in Sri Lanka during the last week. First, President Dissanayake’ maiden budget speech made on 17 February outlined a hybrid economic strategy. Second, the failure of SJB-UNP to come up to a consensus on the upcoming local elections further deepening political divides. Third, during the budget speech the government defended its decision to reject Adani’s wind power project, citing a cheaper alternative. Fourth, Sri Lanka’s participation in the AMAN 2025 naval exercise, reaffirming its regional security role. Fifth, operations conducted by the naval forces to curb illegal fishing activities.

POLITICS
Failure of SJB-UNP to come to consensus for the upcoming local government elections
On 17 February, The Island reported on the failure of SJB-UNP to come into consensus for the upcoming LG elections. Formal talks between the two parties were likely to be suspended as some inflexible positions were taken by some politicians which did undermine the reconciliation effort. Speaking to the Island, an opposition MP familiar with negotiations said: “we agreed to disagree. There were four rounds of talks between the SJB and the UNP after the last general election but we seemed to be unable to convince the UNP to accept Sajith Premadasa’s leadership.(“Shamindra Ferdinando, “SJB-UNP talks fail again; Tissa pulls out of delegation,” The Island, 17 February 2025, https://island.lk/sjb-unp-talks-fail-again-tissa-pulls-out-of-delegation/)

ECONOMY
President Dissanayake’s first budget speech in parliament 
On 18 February, the Daily mirror reported on President Dissanayake’s first budget speech in parliament where he outlined a hybrid economic approach. “We intend to set a foundation to create an economy where all citizens are active participants, active stakeholders and active beneficiaries,” Dissanayake said. The core of the budget was boosting production in industry, services and agriculture, encouraging public participation in economic activities and ensuring equitable distribution of benefits. The budget proposed an increase in the private sector minimum wages and laid the groundwork for long-term economic transformation in addition to the short-term relief measures. President Dissanayake also spoke about his administrative composition saying he had ‘some of the most passionate and disciplined politicians.’ He emphasized that Sri Lanka stands at a historic turning point with an opportunity to redefine its place on the international stage. (Shabiya Ali Ahlam ,“AKD’s maiden budget a bold reset for Sri Lanka,” The Daily Mirror, 18 February 2025, https://www.dailymirror.lk/print/main_image/AKDs-maiden-budget-a-bold-reset-for-Sri-Lanka/346-302609)

Navy operations to curb illegal fishing activities 
On 22 February, the Island reported on the operations conducted by the Navy to curb illegal fishing activities. SLNS Gotabhaya, under the Eastern Naval Command, carried out special search operations in the Mullaitivu sea area and in the Nandikadal Lagoon between 13 and 16 February. On 15 February, SLNS Perakumba of the Eastern Naval Command arrested a suspect in the Kokkadi coastal area of Trincomalee. On 16 February, SLNS Vijaya, under the Northwestern Naval Command, conducted a search operation in the sea off Anawasala. On 19 February, SLNS Thambapanni conducted a search operation in the Sinnapadu coastal area of Chilaw. The arrested individuals and equipment were handed over to respective authorities for legal proceedings. ("Navy cracks down on local fishers engaged in prohibited fishing and other practices," The Island, 22 February 2025, https://island.lk/navy-cracks-down-on-local-fishers-engaged-in-prohibited-fishing-and-other-practices/)

EXTERNAL
Return of SLNS Vijayabahu from AMAN 2025
On 18 February, the Island reported the return of SLNS Vijayabahu which took part in a multinational naval exercise – AMAN 2025. SLNS Vijayabahu reached the island on 17th February and the Navy welcomed the ship in compliance with naval traditions at the Port of Colombo. The multinational naval exercise AMAN was held from 10 February to 14 February centered around Karachi and the Arabian Sea and participation from 11 countries. Commander Northern Naval Area, Rear Admiral Thushara Karunathunga represented the Sri Lanka Navy at AMAN Dialogue – 2025. (“SLNS Vijayabahu returns after taking part in AMAN – 2025,” The Island, 18 February 2025, https://island.lk/slns-vijayabahu-returns-after-taking-part-in-aman-2025/)

INDIA: Sri Lanka has no regrets over Adani's withdrawal, says President Dissanayake
On 17 February, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake mentioned that his government has no regrets over the Adani Group's withdrawal from its wind power projects. In his speech, he justified the decision by informing the state that the government secured a cheaper alternative at 4.65 US cents per unit, compared to Adani's 8.26 cents. The Group had planned a 442 million dollars wind power project in Sri Lanka's northeast but backed out after the new administration moved to renegotiate agreements in December 2024. In 2021, Adani's rapid entry into Sri Lanka's energy sector, allegedly bypassing competitive bidding, had drawn criticism. (“Sri Lanka revokes Adani wind power purchase agreement,” Financial Times, 24 January 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/d1088159-26af-4dfb-a7ac-5fc60b967798)

MALDIVES THIS WEEK
Fifty years diplomatic relations with Singapore, Increase in fTourist Arrivals, and Tuna export to China
Suchitra Jakkala

Three major developments took place in Maldives during the last week.
First, Maldives and Singapore celebrated fifty years of diplomatic relations. Second, according to the Tourism Ministry there has been a seven per-cent increase in the number of tourist arrivals. Third, an agreement has been signed under the Free Trade Agreement for the export of Maldivian sea food to Chinese markets.

EXTERNAL
President Muizzu extended greeting to Singaporean leaders on the occasion of fifty years of shared diplomatic relations
On 20 February, according to a local news source- Avas President Dr Mohammed Muizzu extended greetings to the President and Prime Minister of Singapore to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic ties and their optimism for expanding collaboration. The letters to the President and Prime Minister reflected the hope of Dr Muizzu for greater collaboration for the mutual benefit of the people of both the countries. 
(“Pres Muizzu seeks stronger Maldives- Singapore ties, more opportunities,” Avas, 20 February 2025,https://avas.mv/en/147946)

An agreement has been signed to export tuna to Chinese markets
On 21 February, Sun reported on the signing of the agreement between Ensis Fisheries Private Limited’s premium tuna to the Chinese market under the FTA between both the countries. The signing of the agreement was held in Beijing, China and was witnessed by Maldivian Ambassador to China Dr Njeeb, and State Minister of Fisheries Amzath Ahmed. All this is a part of the Free Trade Agreement  which would strengthen economic ties with China and promote Maldivian seafood in the Chinese market. (Naizak Mohamed, “Ensis Products to be released to Chinese market under FTA,” Sun, 21 February 2025, https://en.sun.mv/95124)

TOURISM
Maldives witnesses seven per-cent hike in the tourist arrival
On 19 February, according to a local news source Avas the number of tourist arrivals visiting Maldives increased by seven per-cent. 3,58,999 tourists visited Maldives as of 18 February which is 23,532 tourists more than the tourists that visited the country as of 18 February 2024. (“Tourism arrival numbers see seven per-cent increase,” Avas, 19 February 2025, https://avas.mv/en/147912)

About NIAS South Asia Brief and the authors

NIAS South Asia Brief is a new initiative led by the faculty and scholars of NIAS Online Course on Contemporary South Asia in collaboration with the Centre for South Asian Studies at Pondicherry University.

Astha Panda, Ditipriya Ghosh, Suchitra Jakkala and Vishnudev S are postgraduate students at Pondicherry University. Vani Vyshnavi is an undergraduate student at Christ University, Bengaluru. Emma Rose Boby is an undergraduate student at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru.

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