NIAS South Asia Brief

Photo Source: South Asia Brief Team
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1606, 4 March 2025
NIAS South Asia Brief
US aid suspension in Nepal, 50 years of tourism in Bhutan, new political party in Bangladesh, freed scam workers in Myanmar and the INR-LKR trade roundtable

  South Asia Brief Team

NEPAL THIS WEEK
Impact of US AID suspension, MoU with China to boost ethnic ties, Protests over Prathibhara Cable Car, and Concerns Over Nepal’s Social Media Bill
Abhishikta S. Kumar, Devika K, Ditipriya Ghosh

Five major developments took place Nepal last week. First, the suspension of US aid under President Trump’s administration halting critical health surveys, raising concerns about Nepal’s healthcare progress. Second, Nepal and China signed a MoU aimed at strengthening ethnic ties through cultural exchanges, education, and policy learning. Third, protests escalated over the Pathibhara cable car project, with demonstrators arguing it threatens the sacred site of the Limbu community. Fourth, controversy intensified over the nomination process for the Vice-Chancellor position at Kathmandu University, with allegations of favoritism and political interference. Fifth, concerns were raised over Nepal’s proposed Social Media Bill and amendments to the Nepal Police Act, as critics warned they could restrict free speech and increase political control over law enforcement.

POLITICS
In the grey, again
On 24 February 2025, The Kathmandu Post reported on the corruption and political interference that have contributed to the decision of Nepal being on the FATF grey list again. The image of that country and prospects for investment and growth will suffer if it continues to resist the proposed reforms. This harms its international reputation, discourages investment, and weakens its standing. Stronger enforcement and political commitment are needed to exit the list.

Koshi Protesters Shift Focus to Pathibhara Cable Car Project
On 24 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that protesters initially focused on renaming Koshi Province have now shifted their attention to opposing the Pathibhara cable car project in Taplejung. Many allege that this shift is an attempt to use religious issues to maintain political relevance. However, representatives of the campaign have defended the protests by stating that their concerns are genuine and not just a tactic to stay relevant. The Koshi protests began after 1 March 2023, when the provincial assembly named Province 1 as Koshi by completely disregarding the identities of various ethnic communities in the region. Clashes have since broken out between the "No Cable Car" group and security personnel. Protesters argue that Pathibhara is a sacred site for the Limbu community and should be preserved in its original state. While various committees and groups have united in opposition to the project, elected representatives and local leaders are alleged to be in favor of the cable car initiative.

Maoist Centre launches public engagement campaign
On 25 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that the opposition party CPN (Maoist Centre) launched the "Tarai-Madhesh Awakening Campaign" on 24 February 2025 to boost its connection with the public. The campaign aims to lay the groundwork for a "socialist revolution" by protecting the constitution, ensuring good governance and social justice, and rallying against what the party describes as a "threat of regression." Several party leaders and office bearers will participate in this campaign, which is set to conclude on 20 March. Political analyst Bhim Bhurtel views this initiative as a positive development in parliamentary democracy.

Concerns over proposed Social Media Bill
On 1 March, The Himalayan Times reported that experts and free speech advocates have raised concerns over the proposed Social Media Bill. They argue that its provisions could curtail free speech and are overlapping in nature. Critics also warn that such measures contribute to the shrinking of civil space in Nepal. While the bill includes positive aspects such as the registration of social networking platforms, establishment of an institutional mechanism, regulation, and enforcement of Supreme Court orders, they also highlight its lack of conceptual clarity and the absence of proper definitions which raises concerns over its potential misuse. ("Experts Suggest Correction in Social Media Bill," The Himalayan Times, 1 March 2025, https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/experts-suggest-correction-in-social-media-bill)

Ruling parties explore ‘strategies’ to pass ordinances
On 2 March, The Kathmandu Post reported that the ruling party faced opposition from the JSP-Nepal and the LSP over a land-related amendment. The party in power in Nepal is attempting to pass six ordinances. The government is thus under pressure to amend the Political Parties Act 2017 and probably manoeuvre the smaller parties into backing these ordinances before they lapse because it lacks a majority in the National Assembly.

SOCIETY
Kathmandu University VC appointment delays spark controversy
On 27 February, The Kathmandu Post reported that eight out of the ten candidates for the Vice-Chancellor (VC) position at Kathmandu University wrote to the Prime Minister, questioning the role of the selection coordinator and seeking intervention to prevent further delays in the appointment process. They alleged that Suresh Raj Sharma, who currently leads the selection committee, is engaging in favoritism and not adhering to the established selection guidelines or criteria. Additionally, 13 officials submitted a joint letter urging a swift nomination, emphasizing that prolonged delays are raising concerns about the committee's efficiency and impartiality. The selection process has been degraded by issues such as a lack of transparency and increasing controversy. ("PM's Agency Sought as KU Struggles to Pick Vice Chancellor," The Kathmandu Post, 27 February 2025, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2025/02/27/pm-s-agency-sought-as-ku-struggles-to-pick-vice-chancellor)

Divorce rate on rise
On 2 March, The Rising Nepal published an article by the author Nilima Adhikari that there is a rise in Divorce cases in Nepal, and according to the Kathmandu District Court, 4,464 divorce cases were registered in 2023/24, and 3,948 were given the final verdict. This shows the increase in the willingness to leave unhappy marriages. Divorce is now the third most common type of case in courts, after banking offenses and cheque bounce cases in Nepal. There are increasing numbers of women not willing to suffer from the abuses anymore, though Madhes province is still supportive of reconciliation. Moreover, "grey divorce" is becoming very common, as older couples are separated once the children have all become independent.

S&T
Nepal's AI diplomacy needs collaboration with foreign actors
On 28 February, a report from the Centre for Social Innovation and Foreign Policy (CSIF) was released, regarding Nepal's need for AI diplomacy in this modern diplomatic era. For this new era of Nepal's AI diplomacy, there is a need for cooperation and a need to navigate the US- China AI rivalry strategically. The international collaboration with regional and global actors like India and China to improve the state's role in AI and to balance innovation and regulation through bilateral and multilateral cooperation. There is a lack of AI policies, skilled professionals, digital infrastructure and cyber security, which Nepal lacks. Suggestions and Recommendations as per the reports which focus on the AI strategic development through education and training and focus on the STEM fields, data science and others to build and strengthen this AI diplomacy of Nepal. Formulating a national strategy aligning with Nepal's development goals, investing in AI education and literacy, promoting cooperation with global AI stakeholders and enhancing their diplomatic presence in AI.

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS
Nepal supplies 40 MGW Electricity to Bangladesh
On 23 February, The Business Standard reported that Nepal will be supplying 40 megawatts of electricity to Bangladesh. This electricity will pass through India and will be supplied from June to November 2025. The agreement was signed under a tripartite deal between Bangladesh, Nepal, and India on 3 October 2024. The announcement was made during a courtesy meeting between the Nepalese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Ghanshyam Bhandari, and Commerce Adviser SK Bashir Uddin. They discussed enhancing bilateral trade, and electricity supply and gave special emphasis on strengthening connectivity between the two nations. Several high officials attended the meeting, which also served as an opportunity to hand over an invitation letter to Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin for the upcoming Nepal Economic Summit. ("Bangladesh to Receive 40 MW Electricity from Nepal for 5 Months," The Business Standard, 23 February 2025, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/bangladesh-receive-40mw-electricity-nepal-5-months-1076051)

Nepal votes in favour of UNGA resolution on Ukraine despite India, China abstains
On February 25, reports from The Kathmandu Post stated that Nepal had voted in favor of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution titled 'Advancing a Comprehensive, Just, and Lasting Peace in Ukraine'. The resolution aimed to reaffirm Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity. This resolution was favoured by 93 states,18 against, and 65 abstentions voted against the resolution, and India and China the neighbours, abstained, whereas Nepal voted in favor of this resolution. The former UN Assistant Secretary General Kul Chandra Gautam appreciated Nepal's principled stance and commitment towards upholding and supporting Ukraine.

Nepal, China sign deal to boost ethnic ties
On 27 February, the Kathmandu Post reported that Nepal and China signed a special agreement aimed at strengthening their cooperation and boosting their ethnic ties. This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)between Nepal and China focuses on education, cultural exchanges and policy learning, improving this bilateral tie. This treaty has no binding obligations under international law, so this MOU is not a formal agreement. This has a growing importance in the relations with the countries, particularly the ethnic and cultural affairs. Ethnic governance within their legal frameworks as they share the best practices on managing these ethnic diversities. Educational exchanges, academic and cultural collaborations and youth engagements are the main objectives of this agreement, thus deepening the relations beyond trade and infrastructure.

US aid suspension halts Nepal's health surveys
On February 28, The Kathmandu Post reported that the recent suspension of US foreign aid under President Donald Trump's administration has led to an indefinite halt of several critical health programs in Nepal. This disruption follows Trump's executive order pausing all American assistance funded by or through the State Department and USAID for 90 days, impacting multiple projects ranging from health to agriculture in Nepal. One of the affected programs is an independent study that the Ministry of Health and Population had planned to assess the effectiveness of female community health volunteers across the country in the current fiscal year. Many other programmes such as the planned micronutrient survey and the health facilities survey, have also been impacted by the US government's decision to suspend financial assistance. Experts warn that this halt will have long-term consequences, leaving Nepal in the dark regarding its healthcare progress and missing crucial new data. The situation highlights the urgent need for the government to allocate sufficient funds for independent studies when designing healthcare programs.

India, Nepal to sign MoU to strengthen cooperation on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene
On March 1, The Tribune reported that India and Nepal will sign the MOU on 3 March. The ceremony for the signing of the MoU is where Yadav will sign on behalf of the Government of Nepal while CR Patil will sign on behalf of India as a Minister for Water Supply. This agreement enhances the cooperation between the neighbouring countries on drinking water, sanitation, hygiene and waste management. Despite notable gains in accessing water, numerous challenges remain, thus making the partnership quite important for both countries.

BHUTAN THIS WEEK
Fifty years of Bhutan’s tourism, Budget allocation for educational policies, Support from the World Bank, Civil Service management and the Melting of Glaciers
Astha Panda

Many important developments took place in Bhutan this week, impacting various sectors. Firstly, Bhutan's 50-year-long tourism journey with investments in global advertising events and the app launch was welcomed in society. Second, some notable education policies included a further 12% budget allocation, a new TVET fair as part of the initiative, and many others. Further, the Royal Civil Service Commission operationalized the Government Performance Management System to solicit efficiencies in civil servant management. Also, the World Bank restated its firm support for developmental initiatives in Bhutan as the national debt hit Nu 293 billion. On the international front, Bhutan strengthened its ties with India and China with collaborative discussions and agreements. Lastly, the environmental matters included the discussion on environmental restoration bonds that ease pressure on theminning businesses and glacier melting issues.

SOCIETY
Half a century of tourism in Bhutan
Bhutan, a tourist destination that started its journey in 1974, had a joyful celebration of its 50th birthday full of various large-minded changes, economic upswing and problems that are still persisting. The sector is focusing on making a recovery from economic recession and growth based on a measure while at the same time, the ministry has to deal with the issue of visitor arrivals as well as with the policy adjustments and regional disparities. It will be approximately Nu 41 million invested in global advertising strategies, five regional airstrips as well as the launch of the Tourism Bhutan app to make the experience better all together. ("Half a Century of Tourism," Kuensel Online, 1 March 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/half-a-century-of-tourism)

Education sees major policy changes and initiatives
The male dragon year in the Bhutanese educational system stands out as a turning massive one, with a number of recalibrating movements and reversals. At the beginning of the year, the government dispersed about 12 percent of the total budget to education, the most marked of all the ministries in the 13th Plan. This budget reflected the government’s dedication to solving problems in the education system that had been remaining unaddressed for many years. Major projects were kicked off the dramatic arts national competition, TVET fair, the country’s first private ECCD, and NFE centres nationwide and the model of TVET in Vocational Education and Training partnering with industries, conceived and implemented the first TVET centre by one of the major industrial companies in Bhutan. ("Education Sees Major Policy Changes and Initiatives," Kuensel Online, 1 March 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/education-sees-major-policy-changes-and-initiative)

Civil Service at a crossroads
The Royal Civil Service Commission (RCSC) in the Times Year of the Dragon has played and continues to play a very important role in development of the country being the main agent of the government which deals with the implementation and implementation of rules. A major checkpoint within the Royal Civil Service Commission (RCSC) in the Year of the Dragon was the adoption and implementation of the Government Performance Management System (GPMS) for national-wide civil servant management. The reform of the national education platform began in 2018 with the implementation of the Grade and Class Promotion Requirement Policy. This policy targeted the issue of teacher shortages by introducing a brand-new technology called Virtual Reality (VR) to the classrooms to make the learning process more appealing to the students. In this study, we present a novel technique to analyze the effect of adverse weather on highway traffic congestion utilizing social media data. (Dorji Choden, "Civil Service at a Crossroads," Kuensel Online, 1 March 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/civil-service-at-a-crossroads)

ECONOMY
World Bank Group Executive Directors reaffirm support to Bhutan
The World Bank Group concluded a five-day visit to Bhutan, a nine-member delegation of World Bank Group Executive Directors reaffirmed the Group's commitment to Bhutan's development priorities too. The delegation, together with the Vice President of the World Bank, Mercy Tembon, and Corporate Secretary, met the King and senior government officials including the Prime Minister. Among other activities, they also visited a number of World Bank-sponsored projects in Bhutan, stressing the importance of private investment, job creation, and climate resiliency in these projects. ("World Bank Group Executive Directors Reaffirm Support to Bhutan," World Bank,  26 February 2025 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/26/world-bank-group-executive-directors-reaffirm-support-to-bhutan)

National Debt touches Nu 293 billion
It was in 2024 that Bhutan's national debt scaled to Nu 292.74 billion, roughly around 97.1 percent of the country's calculated gross domestic product (GDP). The subgroup of sole traders and traders alike took in mostly the shadow economy which interrupted the central to the level of economic growth. Citizens who did not immigrate generally had human capital, which accounted for the remaining percentage of the wealth. This effect was close to an irritant that takes away from the overall performance on the one hand, but on the other hand, it was a wake-up call for the economy when salaries climbed and employment cut unemployment rates down-to the central bank dispelling the management of interest rates through bond purchases. Budgetary support from international lenders and hydropower projects were the main drivers for a nearly Nu 5.23 billion increase in government debt at Nu 246.22 billion a year later. ("National Debt Touches Nu 293 Billion," Kuensel Online, 27 February 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/national-debt-touches-nu-293-billion)

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS
11-Member Bhutan delegation calls on Assam Governor to discuss mutual cooperation
The Assam Governor, Lakshman Prasad Acharya at Raj Bhavan hosting Bhutan's 11-member delegation was led by Younten Phuntsho, Minister of Agriculture and Livestock. The conference dealt with the relationship between Assam and Bhutan, which the two have been able to preserve for many years through cultural, historic, and economic exchanges. The prevalent talks of the Governor on the development of eco-tourism, conservation, and spiritual tourism circuits in addition to the educational and skill development initiatives. The Governor praised Bhutan's leadership in organic farming and the Gelephu Mindfulness City was like to have enhanced the quality of both regions in his speech. ("11-Member Bhutan Delegation Calls on Assam Governor to Discuss Mutual Cooperation," Nagaland Post,  27 February 2025 https://nagalandpost.com/index.php/2025/02/27/11-member-bhutan-delegation-calls-on-assam-gov-discuss-mutual-cooperation/)

Indo-Bhutan Friendship achieves new dimensions
The Indo-Bhutan relations have made giant strides with recent positive developments, which aimed at cementing the bilateral ties. Key programs involve facilitating trade relations through a reduction in tariffs and investment in infrastructure, thus leading to the creation of seamless cross-border transactions. In the education field, the two countries work together on joint programs designed for them to share knowledge and skills, focusing on areas like technology, science, and cultural exchange. Moreover, the promotion of cultural exchange programs is being undertaken as a way to more deeply mutual understanding and appreciation of each other's heritage. Both countries have also reconfirmed their commitment to the mutual growth and prosperity by signing agreements that are mainly focused on the themes of sustainable development and general regional stability. These moves are, in fact, symbols of the bond that exists between India and Bhutan today and the greater partnership that will be built in the future. ("Indo-Bhutan Friendship Achieves New Dimensions,” Kuensel Online, 1 March 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/dz/news/indo-bhutan-friendship-achieves-new-dimensions)

Bhutan-China Hold 24th Boundary Talks in Beijing
The 24th round of Bhutan-China boundary talks was held in Beijing on August 11, 2016. With Damcho Dorji, Bhutan's Foreign Minister, and Liu Zhenmin, Vice Foreign Minister of China, discussing boundary issues and bilateral relations. Discussions set forth the progress achieved after the conclusion of the 23rd round. The parties endorsed the Joint Technical Field Survey report on disputed areas in the western sector. They expressed satisfaction with the warm and friendly atmosphere during the talks and directed their expert groups to pursue their discussions based on the progress achieved. During his visit, Lyonpo Damcho Dorji also had meetings with Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. ( “24th round of Bhutan-China boundary talks held” Kuensel Online, https://kuenselonline.com/dz/news/24th-round-of-bhutan-china-boundary-talks-held)

ENVIRONMENT
On glaciers, need for clarity
The rapid melting of Bhutan's glaciers confronts 700,000 people who depend on them and 1.6 billion people downstream. At the Paro Forum 2025, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay raised concerns about this and pointed out that something urgent needs to be done. With over 7,399 sources of water in Bhutan, with nearly 1,600 of them encountering drying conditions and glaciers retreating at a rate of up to 35 meters a year, the country faces challenges ahead. Even though Bhutan itself accounts for very low emissions owing to little industrial activity, it is one of the hardest-hit countries by climate change as a consequence of industrial countries. The country is focusing on investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, and enlisting support on a global level. ("Need for Clarity to Forge Ahead," Kuensel Online, 27 February 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/need-for-clarity-to-forge-ahead)

Govt eases Environmental Restoration Bond for Mines to boost Business
In 2029, the government aspires for the contribution of the mining and quarrying sector to the GDP to climb from Nu 4.63 billion in 2023 to Nu 9.09 billion, reaching an average annual growth rate of 11.9%. On February 25, the finance ministry announced that ERB may be submitted henceforth not only in cash deposits but also as bank guarantees or other financial instruments. This policy change should facilitate enhanced market liquidity and business efficiency. This new policy will be implemented through the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, which will manage the guarantees in accordance with the provision of guidelines that were formulated in conjunction with the stakeholders. ("Need for Clarity to Forge Ahead," Kuensel Online,  27 February 2025 https://kuenselonline.com/news/govt-eases-environmental-restoration-bond-for-mines-to-boost-business)

BANGLADESH THIS WEEK
The Rise of New Student Parties, Bangladesh’s Democratic Decline and Border Tensions
Emma Rose Boby, Souparno Rakshit, Souparnika Suresh

There were three major developments in Bangladesh this week. First, the rise of two new student parties, BCGS led by Abu Bakar Mazumdar and NCP led by Nahid Islam. Second, Bangladesh being in 100th position in the EIU’s Democracy Index 2024, with claims that they are now following a hybrid regime. Third, border tensions have once again arisen between India and Bangladesh due to smuggling.

POLITICS
Rise of new student parties in Bangladesh
On 26 February, “Bangladesh Gonotantrik Chhatra Songshod”, a new student organization was launched, with Abu Bakar Mazumdar as its convener, however the party is facing issues due to allegedly not accepting students from private universities. Alongside this, on 28 February, Nahid Islam launched the “National Citizens Party”, which is student-led, in order to bring about a free Bangladesh.  Nahid Islam used to previously work in Mohammed Yunus’ interim government. (ANI, “Nahid Islam-led student group launches political party NCP in Bangladesh,” Business Standard, 28 February 2025, https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/nahid-islam-led-student-group-launches-political-party-ncp-in-bangladesh-125022801379_1.html)

Toxic Student Politics: A new uprising lacking unity 
On 26 February, a new Anti-Discrimination student movement was launched. Abu Bakar Mazumdar has been appointed as the convener and Zahid Ahsan as the member secretary. Tahmid Al Mudassir has been assigned as the chief organizer, and Ashrefa Khatun has been given the responsibility of spokesperson .The name of the organization was been declared at Madhur Canteen .The movement faced criticism as it has been not inclusive enough to include the students of private universities. This led to widespread tension and friction as this left several injured, including female students and two hospitalized. The anguish was demonstrated as a form of hour-long protest by blocking the Bangla Motors intersection. The whole allegation put forward by the private universities was denied by the BGCS (Bangladesh Gonotantrik Chhatra Songshod) allowing speculation on whether it was miscommunication or divisive politics. It is time tested that until and unless an uprising sports a strong sense of inclusivity , democracy and free from factionalism the rise might fade soon. (“Refrain from student politics of old”,The Daily Star, 27 February 2025, https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/editorial/news/refrain-student-politics-old-3835486)

Bangladesh’s democratic decline in EIU’s Democracy Index 2024
On 28 February, the Daily Star reported Bangladesh's deep plunge in the Democracy Index, 2024 by the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). This has come in the aftermath of the general election in January, 2024 when the country witnessed suppression of political dissent, rigged elections and restriction of media freedom by the previous ruling party, the Awami League. Bangladesh is now classified as a hybrid regime which essentially underscores irregularities in elections with a score of 4.44 that pushed the country to the lower end of the classification. Several youth-led initiatives after the ousting of prime minister Hasina has helped foster a sense of change and agency, highlighting the increasing disappointment with mainstream political parties. (“Bangladesh slips 25 notches in Democracy Index 2024”, The Business Standard, 28 February 2025, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/democracy-index-2024-bangladesh-falls-25-notches-100th-position-1080606)

Nahid rejects Pro-India, Pro-Pakistan politics in Bangladesh
On 28 February, the Daily Star reported that the convener of the National Citizen Party of Bangladesh, a newly formed political party, emphasized to keep pro-India or pro-Pakistan politics out of the country. Nahid Islam stressed on rebuilding the country and its politics keeping the best interests of its citizens. He also said that the party aims to elect the constituent assembly to formulate the constitution and to establish a “second republic” in Bangladesh. He asserted that the student uprising against the previous government was a promise to build a future for an undivided country with a unified and equitable society. The convener, Nahid Islam was the pivotal front runner of the July revolution led by Students Against Discrimination which led to the ousting of former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina. (“Nahid: No place for pro-India or pro-Pakistan politics in Bangladesh”, Dhaka Tribune, 28 February 2025, https://www.dhakatribune.com/amp/bangladesh/375032/nahid-no-place-for-pro-india-or-pro pakistan#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17408952371494&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com)

EXTERNAL AFFAIRS
Arrested Bangladeshi fishermen released by Myanmar Army
On 27 February, the Dhaka Tribune reported the return of twenty-nine Bangladeshi fishermen who were caught by Myanmar's Arakan Army for fishing in the Naf River. The Board Guard Bangladesh (BGB) facilitated the safe return back to their country after a week of being captured. The fishing rights over Naf River have always been contested with both sides claiming rights over the river which has led to recurring arrests of Bangladeshi fishermen for illegal fishing in Myanmar's territory. The river forms a natural boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar's Rakhine state. ("AA captures 19 Bangladeshi Fishermen for Illegal Fishing in Rakhine Waters", The Rohingya Khobor, 22 February 2025, https://rohingyakhobor.com/aa-captures-19-bangladeshi-fishermen-for-illegal-fishing-in-rakhine-waters/)

Teesta River Project to go to China if the BNP is elected
On 28 February, BNP Standing Committee member Dr Abdul Moyeen Khan met with a senior leader of the CPC and stated that if the BNP were to win the elections, then China would be given preference for the Teesta River Project. This was after the envoy had expressed sincerity and concern for the welfare of the people living on the riverbanks. The envoy also reaffirmed China’s commitment to Bangladesh. The BNP’s stance goes against the Awami League, who more or less assured India that they would be given priority in terms of the Teesta Project. (Bloomberg, “Bangladesh prefers India over China in $1 billion river project,” The Times of India, 15 July 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bangladesh-prefers-india-over-china-in-1-billion-river-project/articleshow/111755968.cms)

Bangladeshi intruders: Border tension remains unresolved
On 1 March, three Border Security Force (BSF) jawans were injured in a violent clash at the Indo-Bangladesh border as the border has turned rampant. Multiple checkpoints are turning hotbeds of clashes between BSF and Bangladeshi intruders as in Tripura 20-25 Bangladeshi intruders spotted as they were engaging in smuggling as a result BSF did resist leading to a heated up violent attack between the two sides. Where some intruders tried to snatch arms from the BSF personnel prolonging the clash. Such tensions are actually leading to a case where a man was shot dead by the BSF inside the Indian territory suspected as a smuggler opposite Kasba upazila in Brahmanbaria. In another unrelated incident, Mumbai police detained 16 Bangladeshi nationals for illegal entry. (“Bangladeshi killed in BSF firing along B'baria border”,The Daily Star, 1 March 2025, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/crime-justice/news/bangladeshi-killed-bsf-firing-along-bbaria-border-3836771)

Expert meeting for the renewal of Ganga Water Treaty
On 2 March 2025, the Daily Star reported that India and Bangladesh are preparing to hold the 86th meeting of the joint committee of technical experts for Ganga Water Treaty renewal. The thirty-year-old treaty which deals with sharing of Ganges water is up for renewal in 2026 and it is to take place in Kolkata. To resolve the persistent dispute and differences over the water sharing, the Ganga Waters Treaty was signed by the countries in December 1996. Muhammad Abul Hossen who leads the eleven-member delegation from Bangladesh reported that the Joint River Commission convenes once a year to discuss cross-boundary rivers. Only weeks before the former prime minister was ousted from her office, India and Bangladesh announced the beginning of technical negotiations for the renewal of the treaty. (“Bangladesh delegation to visit India for talks on Ganga Water Treaty renewal”, The Telegraph, 1 March 2025, https://obeta.ttef.in/world/bangladesh-delegation-to-visit-india-for-talks-on-ganga-water-treaty-renewal/cid/2086451)

MYANMAR THIS WEEK
Freed scam workers stuck in Myanmar, Worsening human rights situation, Food shortage
Vishnudev S, Ashutosh Rath, Abhimanyu Solanki

Three major developments took pace in Myanmar this week. First, rescued scam centre workers are stuck in Myanmar due to slow repatriation process. Second, The UN said that human rights situation in Myanmar is among the worst in the world. Third, the humanitarian organisation which feeds Myanmar refugees is left with fund only for a month as the U.S government stopped the aid.

SECURITY
Over 2,000 Indians trapped in cyber scam operations, 600 Rescued
On 22 February, Deccan Herald reported that more than 2000 Indians have been lured by scam companies for cyber scam operations. They were persuaded by fake job offers and were forced to do fraud works. The embassy said that about 600 Indians have been rescued so far from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Moreover, the report mentions that some of them have been working in their own will, and they will face legal consequences. (“2,000 Indians involved in cyber scam operations in Myanmar's Myawaddy: Report”, Deccan Herald, 22 February 2025, https://www.deccanherald.com/world/2000-indians-involved-in-cyber-scam-operations-in-myanmars-myawaddy-report-3417143 )

Return of Chinese scam workers
On 22 February, The CNA reported that third batches of Chinese Scam workers numbering over 100 were returned by Myanmar. They were sent back via the Thailand-Myanmar Friendship Bridge 2. Thai deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai describing this issue as 'complex transnational crime', stopped fuel and electricity supply to these scam hubs and instructed the police to strengthen border control. Guo Jiakun, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson acknowledged the cooperation between China, Thailand and Myanmar in dealing with the scam centers. ("Myanmar returns more than 100 Chinese scam centre workers", CNA, 22 February 2025, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/myanmar-returns-more-100-chinese-scam-centre-workers-4953631)

Many rescued from Myanmar Scam Centers face delayed return
On 26 February, The VOA was informed by Lt Col. Naing Maung Zaw, the Karen BGF spokesperson regarding the slow repatriation process of the Scam center workers. Thousands of them are staying in temporary shelters in Myanmar due as a result of the pending review and action by the military authorities. The workers are mostly from the Southeast Asian countries and few African countries. China considers the rescued workers as suspected criminals rather than victims. China's Ministry of Public Security has been playing a key role in fragmenting the cyber scams networks along the Thai-Myanmar border. Jason Tower, the Myanmar country director for the U.S Institute of Peace stated- "the campaign is the most aggressive crackdown seen along the Thailand-Myanmar border". Thai military cuts and Beijing's pressure have challenged criminal networks, but sustained efforts are needed to prevent their resurgence. Despite aggressive crackdowns, scam syndicates persist by relocating to new hubs such as Cambodia, Laos or Dubai, with impunity remaining a significant challenge. (Ingyin Naing, "Thousands freed from Myanmar scam centers face slow repatriation process", VOA, 26 February 2025, https://www.voanews.com/a/thousands-freed-from-myanmar-scam-centers-face-slow-repatriation-process/7988446.html )

Food shortage for refugees after US Aid Cutout
On 27 February, The Irrawaddy reported that the humanitarian organisation which feeds 100,000 of Myanmar refugees is left with fund only for a month after the Trump administration stopped the aid. The Border Consortium (TBC) is making efforts to secure alternative financial resources. While communicating to a refugee committee, International Rescue Committee’s Thailand director Darren Hertz stated that, some healthcare services such as primary care and medical supplies will continue in refugee camps, although others, including hospital referrals, family planning, and mental healthcare, will have to stop. It's uncertain what will happen if funds run out by the end of March. ("Food Running Out for 100,000 Myanmar Refugees After US Aid Freeze", The Irrawaddy, 27 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/food-running-out-for-100000-myanmar-refugees-after-us-aid-freeze.html )

Chinese Security Firms Threaten Myanmar’s Sovereignty: Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd
On 1 March, The Irrawaddy published an interview between Ei Kay Kyaw and Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd, a retired U.S Army Lieutenant Colonel about threat posed by Chinese security companies in Myanmar. She opined that China would protect its local interest and will make Myanmar a ‘client state’. She warns that these firms are staffed with Chinese military officers and is a threat to Myanmar’s sovereignty. She opines that China’s motive in Myanmar is to secure alternative trade routes and reduce dependence in Malacca Strait for energy imports. She also said that pro-democracy forces in Myanmar should work together to curb growing Chinese footprints. (“Chinese Security Companies Pose Threat to Myanmar’s Sovereignty”, The Irrawaddy, 1 March 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/video/chinese-security-companies-pose-threat-to-myanmars-sovereignty.html)

Arakan Army renews attacks on Kyaukphyu in Myanmar
On 1 March, The Irrawaddy reported that the Kyaukphyu township and naval base became the new target of Arakan army after over a year without attacks. The reason behind the resumption of clashes is a junta's law allowing armed Chinese security firms in Myanmar to be stationed to protect Chinese projects, which include Oil and gas pipelines, a deep seaport, and a special economic zone in Kyakphyu. The report also mentions that currently only Kyaukphyu, the state capital Sittwe and Manaung remain under junta control in Rakhine state. The crisis is getting tense as clashes between the Arakan Army and its allies have also been reported in several villages in Thabaug township, Ayeyarwady Region. ( Hein Htoo Zan, "Arakan army renew attacks on Kyaukphyu naval base”, The Irrawaddy, 1 March 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/arakan-army-renews-attacks-on-kyaukphyu-naval-base.html)

POLITICS
Lawless border and Poor conduct
On 27 February an editorial in the New York Times highlighted the conditions in the scam centers near the border regions of Myanmar involving the suspected Chinese workers. There have been increasing flights' service for rescuing the scam center workers. Recently the workers have been facing offensives and subject to torture creation a situation of humanitarian crisis. China, Thailand and Myanmar are working in a cooperative manner in this regard, with China playing a major role. Reflecting on the remarks by the stranded workers and the dire situation, Saw Kapi, the founding director of the Salween Institute for Public Policy said- "it necessitates confronting the root causes such as failure in governance, corruption and the entanglement of organised crime with political and economic interests." Ethnic minority militias in Myanmar, controlling areas near the Thai border, have been implicated in illicit activities, including fraud, drugs, and wildlife trafficking. They provide muscle for these operations, often leasing land to Chinese companies. Lt Colonel Naing Maung Zaw of the Karen BGF stated that the raids were conducted due to reports of foreigners being held against their will and abused, not because of pressure from China. Many scam center escapees still view the tortures and offensives as nightmare. (Hannah Beech, "On a Lawless Tropical Border, the Global Scams Industry Thrives", The New York Times, 27 February 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/world/asia/scam-centers-myanmar-thailand-china.html)

Worsening Human Rights situation
On 28 February, the United Nations reported that there has been an escalation in the human rights crises in Myanmar. UNHRC chief Volker Turk said- "The Human Rights situation in Myanmar is among the worst in the world" describing the conditions as repetitions of human suffering. An approximate of 3.5 million people are displaced, 15 million face hunger, and a couple million at a risk of famine with more than thousands of Rohingya feeding to the bordering countries. Mr. Turk condemned the junta for activating conscription laws, leading to arbitrary arrests and forced recruitments, which had driven many to flee and face trafficking risks. He emphasized the need for international action to address the humanitarian, political and economic instability in the region. He called for an arms prohibition and targeted sanctions, including on jet fuel and dual-use goods, to protect Myanmar's people. ("A litany of human suffering in Myanmar, warns UN rights chief", United Nations News, 28 February 2025, https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1160686 )

SOCIETY
Thailand deported Uyghers to China despite criticism
On 28 February 2025, The Irrawaddy published a report by AFP that Thailand had deported 40 people from Uyghur ethnic group to China. They had done this despite the warning from various human rights groups about the risk of persecution as China had been accused of committing violence in Xinjiang, including the confinement of around one million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. Many say that those fled China before a decade fearing persecution. The National Police chief said that China had agreed to take care of them and moreover, Uyghurs didn’t resist sending them back. (AFP, “Thailand Deports Dozens of Uyghurs to China”, The Irrawaddy, 28 February 2025, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/asia/thailand-deports-dozens-of-uyghurs-to-china.html)

SRI LANKA THIS WEEK
Roundtable on INR-LKR trade settlement, Indian fishermen arrested by Sri Lankan navy, dependency of India-Sri Lanka petroleum pipeline on economic viability, second reading of budget passed by two-third majority, compensation by Sri Lankan government to easter attack victims
Rithik Shetty, Suchitra Jakkala, Vani Vyshnavi

Several major developments took place in Sri Lanka during the last week. First, a roundtable conference was organised by the Indian High Commission on INR-LKR trade settlement. Second, with two-third majority, a second reading of the budget was passed in the Parliament. Third, the Sri Lankan government disbursed 245 million rupees in compensation to Easter attack victims. Fourth, bail was granted to Gnanasara Thera by Colombo Magistrate Court. Fifth, the chairman of CPC proposed that the India-Sri Lanka petroleum pipeline will only proceed if it is economically feasible.

POLITICS
Grant of bail to Gnanasara Thera by Colombo Magistrate court  
On 26 February, the Daily Mirror reported the release of Gnanasara Thera, the General Secretary of Bodu Bala Sena (BBS). He was sentenced to nine months of simple imprisonment by the Magistrate’s Court of Colombo for delivering a hate speech that hurt the sentiments of the Muslim community in the country. Additionally, the Additional Magistrate of Colombo imposed a fine of 1500 Rupees. He was granted bail by the Colombo Magistrate court following the filing of a revision application. (Lakmal Sooriyagoda , “Gnanasara Thera granted bail after nearly one and a half months in incarceration,” The Daily Mirror, 26 February 2025, Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan