Pakistan Reader

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CWA # 1384, 15 July 2024
Pakistan Reader
PR Review I Pakistan Economic Survey 2024 (Part-III)| Climate Change in Pakistan: Five Takeaways

  Dhriti Mukherjee

On 11 June, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb released the Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24, a 500-page report which presented an “overview of the country’s economic performance” during FY24. The 17-chapter report found that despite a “slight contraction in FY23” caused primarily by “global economic showdown, high global inflation, and flood damages,” in FY24 the economy enjoyed a “modest recovery” thanks to the “government’s timely and effective policy measures.” Climate Change, one of the “most significant environmental challenges” globally, was one chapter in the report. Though Pakistan accounts for roughly 0.9 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is “one of the world’s most vulnerable nations” as it faces “unpredictable weather patterns” in the form of floods, droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall. This combination has caused a deterioration of ecosystems and landscapes, an increase in forest fires, and a depletion of water resources, along with a risk of new challenges including coastal flooding and erosion. Following are five key takeaways from the chapter.
 
1. An alarming rise in the occurrence of natural disasters
With an alarming rise in the frequency of climate-related natural disasters, between 1980-2022, floods (2010 and 2022), tropical cyclones, extreme temperatures, and occasional droughts (2018) were the most observed. Changes in global climate patterns along with a few other factors have caused the intensity of floods to gradually increase, and with it, the economic losses have also increased. The report cited the 2022 floods which exposed Pakistan’s “vulnerability to climate change” and the vulnerability of residents, as 33 million were affected, and eight million were displaced. This “unprecedented” disaster led to a USD 15.2 billion loss to the GDP and USD 16.3 billion being spent on rehabilitation. Several sectors also suffered losses, including housing (USD 5.6 billion), agriculture, food, and livestock (USD 3.7 billion), and transport and communication (USD 3.3 billion). According to data, the impact of natural disasters and floods in particular “extend beyond immediate casualties to include long-term socio-economic repercussion” in the form of mass displacement and an economic toll. These disasters have been exacerbated by climate change, as their severity has increased due to “altering precipitation patterns” and “intensifying extreme weather events.”
 
2. A reduction in emissions due to effective mitigation efforts
Despite facing a disproportionate impact of climate change, Pakistan has “exceeded mitigation efforts, resulting in an 8.7 per cent reduction in emissions between 2016 and 2018.” The government aims to keep emissions to 1,603 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, along with a shift to 60 per renewable energy by 2030. To achieve this, several “robust capital restoration efforts” and policy actions have been implemented. For instance, an air pollution crisis poses a “severe health hazard,” as more than a “million citizens are at increased mortality risk from air pollution in highly urbanized cities.” To combat this, the government incorporated policy interventions, such as the National Clean Air Policy (a blueprint to improve air quality through national-level actions introduced in 2023), the Pakistan Clean Air Action Plan (a measure to provide technical support to provinces by identifying sources of pollution), and the Climate Finance Wing (a platform to attract global climate finance).
 
3. A possibility of raised frequency of extreme weather events
The report cited the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023, which provides a “framework
for implementing adaptation, promoting inclusivity, and facilitating stakeholder collaboration.” The NAP projected several climate change trends for 2023, primarily an increase in temperature above the global average to 1.4°–3.7° by the 2060s. This will be accompanied by a decrease in projected monthly rainfall of 20 per cent, including an increase in rain from January to June, followed by a decrease. While water availability per capita will decrease to “an alarmingly low level,” sea levels will increase by 30-80 cm by 2100, causing a risk to low-lying coastal regions and affecting freshwater sources. As per projections, there will be increases in damage from riverine floods (47 per cent), the amount of population exposed to yearly heatwaves (32 per cent), sea levels, and air and water pollution. Simultaneously, there will be decreases in labour productivity (seven per cent), food yield, and water availability.
 
4. A continuation of efforts to cooperate with the UN
In its commitment to combat climate change, Pakistan has been cooperating with the UN to both meet its global objectives and also coordinate with UN agencies to launch programmes. The report cited how Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination (MoCC&EC) is executing a project in collaboration with UN-Habitat, titled ‘"Enhancing
Community, Local, and National-Level Urban Climate Change Resilience to Water Scarcity Caused by Floods and Droughts in Rawalpindi and Nowshera Districts.’ With a USD six million budget, the primary aim of the project is to “fortify urban resilience against water scarcity resulting from floods and droughts” through sub-objectives.
 
Separately, during the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference, Pakistan remained “actively engaged as a responsible member of the global community.” The report noted that Pakistan also is “committed to the principles of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR),” and it “fulfils its obligations as a party to the Paris Agreement.” During the COP28 process, Pakistan achieved multiple milestones including contributing to the adoption of the first GST under the Paris Agreement, advocating for transparency and human rights, lobbying for enhanced access to the adoption fund, and emphasizing a “multilateral approach to just transition.”
 
5. A series of need-based provincial successes
Each province in Pakistan faces differing climate change issues and has enjoyed several achievements. In Punjab, an Environment Endowment Fund was established as a “sustainable source of funding for environmental projects,” and the government approved the Punjab Clean Air Policy. Under the Punjab Green Development Programme, the Punjab Environmental Protection Council approved the Plastic Management Strategy in 2023. In Sindh, the Sindh Climate Change Policy was launched in 2022, while a Climate Finance and Carbon Credit Union is set to be established to “develop access to carbon markets and other sources of climate finance.” A collaborative approach involving discussions between all stakeholders in the province is undertaken to prepare the Priority Actions (2030) for NDC
Implementation for Sindh. In Balochistan, the Balochistan Environment Protection Agency (BEPA) has undertaken various measures and steps. It installed 11 Scrubbers in Steel Mills to control carbon emissions, 19 Effluent Treatment Plants in industrial units to prevent water pollution and dismantled 39 crush plants around Quetta Valley to control dust emissions, among other actions. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the government implemented several development projects during FY24. This includes the implementation of the Conservation, Development, and Management of Wildlife under Green Pakistan, improvement of the effectiveness of wildlife sanctuaries, adaptation of SOPs to prevent wildfires, and the formulation of the Urban Forestry Policy of 2023.

Climate Change
What did the Economic Survey say in the 2022 and 2023 reports?

Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-23
In this report, the effects of climate change in Pakistan were similar to those detailed in the 2023-24 survey, including “droughts, floods, erratic weather behaviour, changes in agricultural patterns, reduction in fresh water supply and the loss of biodiversity.” Asserting that Pakistan has a role to play in combating climate change by “giving due importance to mitigation efforts in sectors such as energy, transport, forestry and agriculture,” the report highlighted several initiatives undertaken by the government. In FY23, PKR 256 billion was allocated for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) services in the budget, an increase of 152 per cent compared to the budget for FY19. The Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) initiated in 2019 saw PKR 3296.683 being utilized during FY23, with 2027.01 million plants being planted/distributed till March 2023. To protect forests and biodiversity, measures such as an MoU with Saudi Arabia to increase cooperation in the environment sector, joining the Forests and Climate Leaders’ Partnership, and organizing tree planting campaigns in 2022 were undertaken. 
 
During COP27, Pakistan performed a “key role” by raising “issues for countries most adversely impacted by climate change.” It chaired the G-77 & China group, was able to get the L&D fund successfully adopted, and pushed for the agreement that was reached on establishing an Advisory Board of the Santiago Network on L&D. Separately, in light of high levels of air pollution, the National Clean Air Policy (NCAP) was launched in March 2023, to allow “key institutions at national and provincial levels to understand the air quality status and identify, implement and monitor mitigation actions to reduce air pollution.” However, the report advised that “provinces need to have their own action plans contextualized to the ground realities.” For Pakistan to achieve its Net Zero targets realistically, the report pointed out that a “long-term vision, supported by long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) with periodic targets and checkpoints will be a key component.”

Pakistan Economic Survey 2021-22
In this report, it was highlighted how “growing population, unplanned urban expansion and dependence on natural resources” put pressure on the environment, leading to Pakistan suffering “natural and human induced hazards.” Under the TBTTP, 1586.18 million plants were “attained” till March 2022. The MoCC also developed a “robust digital reporting system to ensure the transparency of TBTTP activities.” Other initiatives launched include the Protected Areas Initiative (preserving rare flora/fauna and protecting eco-tourism) and the Billion Tree Honey Initiative (an effort to promote agriculture). As part of WASH, for which the government allocated PKR 225 billion for FY22, the MoCC revised the National Climate Change Policy to align it with the SDGs and supported all provinces through UNICEF to organize WASH reviews. Several other actions taken by the MoCC during 2021-22 include a study on plastic waste, an MoU with Uzbekistan on cooperation in environment and climate change, and a draft of a legal document including the rules for implementing the Montreal Protocol. The MoCC also updated certain policies, including the National Climate Change Policy (updated in “accordance with the requirements of Paris Agreement on climate change, SDGs and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction) and the NDC (separate chapter on the role of women in decision-making).

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