CWA # 168
Review
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
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Sukanya Bali
7 October 2019
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Photo Source: www.express.co.uk
This review focuses on four major issues – security, transportation, fisheries and citizenship - which were not fully attended in the Operation Yellowhammer report.
How prepared is UK to meet the fallouts of a no-deal Brexit, and how comprehensive is the Operation Yellowhammer, the contingency plan?
The British government was forced to publish the report that looked into the worst-case scenario of leaving EU. The “Operation Yellowhammer” report tries to highlight the ‘worst-case-planning-assumptions’ pertaining to a no-deal Brexit and brings attention to the scenarios that could emerge with a no-deal Brexit.
However, the six-page document failed to brief some of the serious issues which might create a ruckus in the UK after Brexit. The report consisted of clauses covering major problems including rising prices, disruption of food and medicine supply, and other basic societal issues.
Security
Clause 10 states that “the Law enforcement data and information shared will be disrupted between the UK and the EU.” The data-sharing mechanism ensured quicker criminal prosecution and vetting of people entering the UK. Post no-deal Brexit, inability to use European arrest warrant and passenger databases, would increase the risk that criminals could come into the country.
In the absence of such a data-sharing mechanism, the UK would be dependent on the Interpol system to manage its interstate civil-security concerns. But the criminal database of Interpol and the working is not as efficient and might cause delays in prosecution compared to the system currently prevalent with EU member states.
Further, the report puts little emphasis on the territorial security of the UK. After its divorce with the EU, the UK may find itself in a precarious situation. Political uncertainty could give birth to national security issues unless careful planning is done. The report under-addresses these concerns. Ideally, the no-deal Brexit may lead to an increase in economic spending, political regulation and social escalation within the country. The report does not account for these scenarios.
Transportation
Clause 3 states that ‘Heavy Goods Vehicle’ travelling via Channel Straits could face maximum delays for 1.5 -2.5 days before crossing the border. The flow rate of HGVs could be reduced to ‘40-60 per cent’ of current levels on day-one of Brexit. However, these delays and congestion that would likely ensue Brexit, articulated in the document, is just the tip of the iceberg.
The delays are likely to increase the cost of transit, in addition to disrupting the path of around 85 per cent of the road transport sector. The delays at the port will cause disruption to global supply chains. Perishable goods would get spoiled in delays at the check-posts. Business continuity will evidently be ruptured until a new order is put in place.
Clause 4 states that immigration checks at transit points of St Pancras and Dover may lead to ‘passenger delays’ and further says that ‘it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departure at EU airports and ports.
The Belfast- Dublin Enterprise line between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that carries passengers and freight across borders would be disrupted. It awaits an uncertain future, as the UK government has not been able to give a solution to the Irish border problem or the backstop. Delays in transit across the channel tunnel will disrupt the everyday lives and would agitate the population and kindle protests in the country.
Aviation will be adversely affected. UK-licensed airliners are a party to the multilateral agreement that gives the airlines the right to fly to and from the EU. Upon no-deal Brexit, the UK airliners will cease to benefit from the agreement. Therefore, a divorced UK will need to negotiate bilateral deals for its airliners to fly to and from other countries including the EU member countries.
A no-deal Brexit would also prevent the UK motor license holders from driving to the other EU countries
Fishing
According to the Common Fisheries Policy, the European fishing fleets are given equal access to all EU member's coastal waters. This would come to an end. Clause 19, of the forcefully published report, states that ‘282 EU and EEA nations fisheries vessels’ will be affected after the Brexit. Fishing by these EU vessels in UK territorial waters would become illegal after Brexit. The clause also suggests the possibility of ‘clashes’ between fishing vessels.
After the Brexit, UK’s legislation will regulate the fisheries law industry-exclusive of the EU nations. The law will also deal with illegal fishing activity, maritime risk, illegal immigration, smuggling, and sea border violation, which may nevertheless disturb the current social discourse.
However, preventing 282 vessels from fishing would also result in extreme shortages of fish in the market and thereby escalate prices. A government memo leaked to the BBC said, there are just 12 ships to monitor a space three times the size of the UK. Operation Yellowhammer overlooks the potential impact a no-deal Brexit could have on the income and daily lives of Fishing communities. The report also does not evaluate the ability of the coastal agencies to manage the contingencies that could arise in the event of no-deal Brexit.
Citizenship
EU Citizenship of UK nationals is one of the important concerns. Clause 11 of the report says that ‘UK nationals will lose their EU Citizenship’ and goes on to say that “all member states have now published a legislative proposal, but not all have passed legislation to secure rights for UK nationals”.
In a no-deal scenario, uncertainty looms around the rights of EU citizens in Britain and UK citizens in the EU. It is the discretion of individual member countries to decide on rights and privileges to be given to UK citizens. There is no clear legislation in place to secure the rights for nationals, post-Brexit. The status given to individuals will further affect their job security and access to employment. In addition, the effect on the job market owing to no-deal Brexit would that people might also lose jobs due to a lack of policies governing employment.
The absence of clarity in citizenship and social security of UK nationals in the EU and vice-versa might lead to the harassments of individuals. The report does not delve into the complexities of the issues at hand, giving the people only an incomplete picture.
Additionally, the issues of licensing, permits, access to healthcare, judicial rights, etc are not given sufficient emphasis in the operation yellowhammer report. The ups and downs, twists and turns are the part and parcel of the Brexit narrative now.
The report does not reveal the complete picture of the worst-case scenarios of no-deal Brexit or viable solutions to address several areas of concern
