State of Peace and Conflict 2025

CWA # 1884
State of Peace and Conflict 2025
Myanmar: Managed Elections, Return of the USDP and Regional & Global Apathy
Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2025, Vol 6, No. 52

Bibhu Prasad Routray
31 December 2025

Photo Source: AP

At one level, the military junta in Myanmar can be likened to a quack—a fraudulent pretender to medicine, who attempts to treat diseases well beyond his understanding and capability. In the four years and ten months since the infamous coup on 1 February 2021, the military's governing body, the State Administration Council (SAC), has employed a wide range of tactics, from co-option to brutal force. It has even sought, and to some extent successfully received, assistance from external powers to suppress the civil war that has significantly undermined its authority and control over much of the country’s territory. On 28 December, a staggered voting began in the country to elect the national parliament and the provincial assemblies, representing the junta’s desperate attempt to ensure stability. However, the elections are likely to fail as a tactic for legitimising its grip on power. The cycle of intense violence is unlikely to come to an end, even with a military-supported government in place.

What do the numbers say?
As of 26 December, a total of 7,635 people have been reported killed, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Bangkok-based non-profit organisation. In addition to these confirmed deaths, another 4,200 deaths have occurred but have yet to be verified by AAPP. The majority of the confirmed killings have taken place in the Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magway regions. Other severely affected areas include Bago, Rakhine, Shan, Yangon, Tanintharyi, Kachin, and Chin. While Sagaing remains the epicentre of resistance against the junta and the site of its brutal attacks, much of the country continues to experience military conflict. Not surprisingly, the description of ‘civil war’ remains so apt.

It is interesting to observe the trend in killings since the coup, which suggests an escalating pattern of desperation from the junta to establish order. In the first year following the coup, there were 1,329 killings. This number increased to 1,611 in the second year, culminating by the end of December 2022. By the end of 2023, the total reached 4,273 fatalities, marking 1,333 deaths that year. 

The year 2024 was the bloodiest, as the military's desperation to eliminate opposition reached alarming levels, resulting in 1,814 deaths. That year proved to be particularly devastating for women and children, with 622 women and 182 children killed, averaging more than two deaths per day in these categories. In 2025 (till 26 December), 1,549 people were killed, averaging 129 killings per month. Among them, 657 were women and 295 were children, accounting for a staggering 61 percent of the total fatalities for the year, which is the highest since the coup.

The Cost and Consequences of Containment
The scorched earth policy, heavily reliant on air power to conduct strikes and artillery shelling,  hasn’t, however, produced results for the junta. It has suffered heavy personnel attrition, forcing it to implement forced conscription, further subjecting Myanmar’s desolate youth to an impending peril. As per a July 2025 analysis, the military's effective fighting force may have dwindled to around 130,000 soldiers, down from an estimated 300,000 before the coup.

Not surprisingly, the junta controls only 21 percent of the country’s territory, half of the 42 percent under the control of the National Unity Government (NUG) and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). Control over the remaining 37 percent is contested and fleeting, changing hands between the military and the EAOs. Nevertheless, the ability to withstand the military’s assault, which is backed by Russian, Chinese, and other military hardware supplies and hold an expansive territory is a testament to the fighting spirit and commitment of the resistance movement headed by the NUG.  Special focus of the Junta’s operations are on the highways and key roads that form part of the trade routes.    

What Next?
Voting for the elections will continue into January 2026. The Union Election Commission (UEC) has officially ruled out voting in 121 constituencies across 56 towns, indirectly acknowledging the lack of government control in these areas and its inability to conduct polls. The staged political process is likely to be accompanied by an expansion of military operations to strengthen control over these regions, which will likely result in increased violence and bloodshed.

Although the results are set to be announced by the end of January 2026, it is expected that the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is affiliated with the military, will emerge as the uncontested winner. Many serving generals, ministers, and retired officials are joining the USDP. The intention is to establish a technocratic government to manage the country; however, this government is likely to be the weakest in Myanmar’s history. It will not represent the will of the people and will struggle to govern the nation effectively. Consequently, much of the government’s focus will likely be on gradually asserting control over liberated areas under the NUG and EAOs, with governance being a secondary priority.

Myanmar's current situation and the junta's ability to maintain power can be attributed not only to its authoritarian tendencies but also to the support it receives from regional countries and external powers, including autocracies, oppressive regimes, and even democracies. This support, combined with the West's detachment from this reclusive nation, highlights a dysfunctional world order. It suggests a precarious future where the thirst for power and strategic interests will take precedence over all other considerations. While autocracies and authoritarian regimes are known to live by these principles, the democracies who stand by Myanmar’s military junta need to ponder over their operating principles.  

About the author
Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is the Director of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), Goa, and has been Deputy Director in the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India.

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The India–US interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan