State of Peace and Conflict 2025

CWA # 1888
State of Peace and Conflict 2025
Coup in Madagascar: Gen Z protests, the CAPSAT intervention and Divided regional response
Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2025, Vol. 6, No. 52

Rizwana S Banu
31 December 2025

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What happened?
On 25 September, youth-led protests erupted in Madagascar’s capital, Antananarivo, over power outages and water shortages. At least five people were killed during the clashes with the security forces, who used tear gas and rubber bullets. The protesters mobilised on the internet under the title ‘Gen Z Madagascar.’

On 29 September, President Andry Rajoelina dissolved the government in response to escalating protests. However, the protests continued, with protesters demanding systemic reforms. The United Nations reported that at least 22 people were killed and over 100 were injured. 

On 1 October, despite the government's dissolution, protests intensified in Antananarivo and other regions. Security forces continued to use force to disperse crowds, leading to further casualties. The Presidency urged “calm and dialogue.” 

On 13 October, the BBC reported that President Andry Rajoelina fled the country following three weeks of violent anti-government protests.

On 14 October, CAPSAT, an elite military wing, took over the power after Rajoelina’s flight. Colonel Michael Randrianirina declared, “We are taking power.” It suspended the constitution and announced the formation of a transitional government. Meanwhile, the protesters welcomed the military takeover.

On 15 October, UN Secretary António Guterres expressed deep concerns over the unconstitutional change of power in Madagascar.

On 16 October, the African Union suspended Madagascar, stating: “The rule of law must prevail over the rule of force.

What is the background?
First, the Gen Z protests that led to regime change. The military took over after three weeks of the Gen Z protests. The protests were initially against the frequent power cuts and water shortages in the capital, Antananarivo. Later, it spread across the country and evolved into a broader anti-government protest over socio-economic issues, including unemployment and bad governance. The protesters belong to Generation Z or the young population born between 1997 and 2012. According to the UNFPA, the youth population of Madagascar is 21.7 million, which is two-thirds of the population. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, the youth unemployment rate in the country stands at 5.39 per cent in 2024. Gen Z used social media platforms to mobilise the masses. In a span of two weeks, it spread across the country, forcing the Rajoelina to dissolve the government

Second, Madagascar’s history of persistent political instability. Madagascar has undergone multiple coups and transitional governments since its independence from France in 1960. The persistent political instability is attributed to bad governance, corruption and clientelism, which weakened political institutions and caused widespread public discontent. The first coup was in 1972, when President Philibert Tsiranana was overthrown by the military. In 1991, President Didier Ratsiraka was forced to resign following the mass protests. In 2009, following violent protests, then-President Marc Ravalomanana was overthrown by Andry Rajoelina, then mayor of Antananarivo, with the support of elite military unit CAPSAT. The 2025 political crisis mirrors these earlier events, underscoring a recurring cycle of protest, coup and fragile transition.

Third, CAPSAT’s de facto intervention. Corps d’Armée pour la Sauvegarde de la Transition (CAPSAT) is an elite military unit within Madagascar’s national army. It is tasked with protecting key government officials, handling security missions and counterinsurgencies, including crisis intervention. In 2009, CAPSAT played a crucial role in overthrowing the then-government, and backed Rajoelina to seize power and head the transitional government. In 2025, CAPSAT once again demonstrated its decisive role, stepping in after Rajoelina’s flight and assuming control of the state.

Fourth, different regional and international positions. The African Union responded by suspending Madagascar, reflecting its commitment to preventing unconstitutional power grabs. Neighbouring countries seem restrained as they have only maintained a watchful stance and urged for mediation and stability. Globally, the United Nations condemned the state’s violent response to protesters, reflecting its commitment to maintaining peace and stability. In December 2025, Russia delivered arms and military support to Madagascar’s transitional government, which further strengthens CAPSAT's position.

What does this mean for 2026?
First, the protests in Madagascar are likely to recur as the root causes are embedded in deep socio-economic issues affecting a large section of the population, particularly Generation Z.  If these structural reforms are neglected, instability may deepen, and military rule may normalise, especially with external actors like Russia already supplying arms to strengthen CAPSAT’s position. Such foreign backing risks entrenching military dominance and undermining democratic recovery. 

Second, in the short term, CAPSAT’s intervention can likely bring order. Civilians perceive the military as a stabilising force, capable of restoring the law and order that the elected representatives failed to resolve. This also increases the risk of another military-run authoritarian government in Africa similar to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The reliance on military solutions reflects a broader continental trend where armed forces step in during crises, but such interventions often weaken democratic consolidation and entrench cycles of authoritarianism. For Madagascar, the short-term calm may come at the cost of long-term institutional fragility.

About the author 
Rizwana S Banu is an Undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

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