State of Peace and Conflict 2025

CWA # 1892
State of Peace and Conflict 2025
Nigeria: Kidnappings, Insurgencies, and Farmer-Herder Clashes
Conflict Weekly #313, 31 December 2025, Vol. 6, No. 52

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
31 December 2025

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What happened?
During 2025, the insecurity issues that Nigeria faced included kidnappings, insurgencies, and farmer-herder clashes.

Ransom kidnappings
On 6 January, bandits kidnapped at least 46 people, including women and children, in a raid on Gana town in Nigeria's northwest Zamfara state. Later, in March, a Naval Officer and two others were kidnapped in the Mpape area of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

In August, the Nigerian military conducted air strikes targeting bandits’ hideouts and helped free 76 hostages.

November saw an escalation in kidnappings by the armed men. On 13 November, 13 women were abducted; on 17 November, 25 students from a girls' school in Kebbi state were abducted; on 22 November, over 300 school children and 12 teachers were abducted from Niger state. In light of the wave of kidnappings, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency. He stated: “This is a national emergency, and we are responding by deploying more boots on the ground, especially in security-challenged areas.”

The same month, the police and military were redeployed from VIP duties to focus on high-risk areas.

In December, more than 150 of the abductees were released without any explanation. The Kwara state government deployed forest guards, signalling what officials describe as a shift to a more aggressive security posture.

Boko Haram and ISWAP
On 15 May, Boko Haram massacred close to 100 residents of Mallam Karamti and Kwatandashi villages in Nigeria’s Borno State.

In April, confrontations were reported by the BBC between Nigerian forces and Boko Haram in Borno State. During the same month, ISWAP carried out drone attacks for the first time in Nigeria’s Borno state.

On 5 September, ISAWP attacked Darul Jamal village in Borno State, killing 60 people. The Institute for Security Studies reported that the group has extended its reach beyond Lake Chad to the North Central region of Nigeria, where it is operating with bandits and possibly Lakurwa, the new terrorist group in the region.

According to the Global Terrorism Index of 2025, Nigeria ranked 6th, and the deadliest attacks were carried out by Boko Haram.

On 3 November, US President Donald Trump said that he would send military forces to tackle Islamist militant groups in Nigeria, citing violence against Christians. He also accused the Nigerian government of not taking enough action to protect the Christians. Trump stated: "They're killing record numbers of Christians in Nigeria. They're killing the Christians and killing them in very large numbers. We're not going to allow that to happen."

On 25 December, the US carried out coordinated airstrikes against militants affiliated with the Islamic State in Sokoto state at the request of Nigeria. Trump stated: "The United States conducted powerful and deadly strikes in Nigeria on Christmas Day against Islamic State terrorists who have been viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians.” The Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar stated: "These were coordinated strikes with the Nigerian government against ISIL targets in Sokoto. While we appreciate the support, it's vital to remember these armed groups, including ISWAP and ISSP, attack both Muslim and Christian communities. This isn't just a religious issue; it's about state sovereignty and bringing stability to our nation."

Farmer-herder clashes
In March, the SBM Intelligence reported that more than 2.2 million Nigerians were displaced across the country because of farmer-herder conflicts.  

On 7 April, Daily Sabah, a Nigerian media, reported that 52 people were killed and nearly 2,000 were displaced in a series of farmer-herder clashes in the Bokkos district of Plateau state.
On 13-14 June, Al Jazeera reported that armed herders attacked multiple communities in Guma Local Government Area, Benue state, killing over 100 civilians and forcing more than 6,000 people from their homes. This year, several instances of deadly violence between the Fulani herders and farming communities were reported in the regions of the Middle Belt, with Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa states most affected.

What are the issues?
First, the increasing security issues. According to the August 2025 Nigeria Security Report by Beacon Security and Intelligence, despite ongoing government operations, insecurity remained deeply entrenched with 545 recorded violent incidents, resulting in 732 fatalities and 435 abductions. According to Nigeria’s human rights agency, more people were killed by bandits and insurgents in the first half of this year than in all of 2024. The figures say that at least 2,266 people were killed in the first half of 2025, compared to 1,083 in the first half of 2024 and 2,194 for the full year last year. It highlights worsening insecurity issues in the country.

Second, multiple actors, different tactics, and different endgames. The primary actors include ransom bandits operating primarily in the north-west and north-centre regions, jihadist insurgent groups such as Boko Haram and ISAWP, dominated in the north-east, and communities involved in farmer-herder clashes across the Middle Belt. The actors use different tactics. Bandits used motorcycles for overnight raids and mass abductions from villages, schools, and highways for ransom. Jihadist insurgents use more coordinated attacks with improvised explosive devices. Their violence is aimed at undermining state authority and maintaining territorial influence. The endgames differ as bandits seek profit rather than political control. Insurgents seek ideological objectives and are also embedded in regional jihadist networks. Farmer-herders seek unimpeded access to vital natural resources and protect and sustain their occupational ways of life.

Third, the incapacitated state. Nigeria’s Minister of Defence, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, was pressured to resign following the wave of kidnappings and other security issues during November. Nigeria’s security forces are overstretched and under-resourced. According to the UK government assessment, Nigeria has approximately 370,000 officers to protect its 220 million citizens, and a significant number of these are seconded to protect wealthy individuals. This further contributes to delayed responses and low deterrence against armed groups. The Centre for Global Development had reported that there is dysfunctional governance in regard to areas along the peripheries and rural areas due to a lack of proper infrastructure, corruption and the lack of political will and political autonomy.

Fourth, absent regional and controversial US intervention. In March, the ECOWAS had activated its standby force to tackle terrorism in West Africa, which included Nigeria. However, the implementation lagged amid the withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from the regional bloc. The standby force failed to become a concrete operational force. ECOWAS has yet to deploy a dedicated regional mission to Nigeria. Meanwhile, the US involvement has been politically charged and deemed controversial. The US’s direct military action in Nigeria came with Trump’s narrative of the protection of Christian communities. It drew criticism for oversimplifying Nigeria’s complex conflict dynamics and raising questions about sovereignty and selective foreign intervention.

What does this mean for 2026?
First, insecurity issues are likely to worsen. Considering the trajectory of the increasing number of incidents related to insecurity and the state’s incapacity to address these issues, it is highly likely that 2026 will witness a further surge in instability. According to ACLED, in 2025, Nigeria had recorded over 7000 incidents involving non-state actors, making it one of the most conflict-affected countries on a global scale. Yet, these incidents had received too little international attention compared to the war in Ukraine or Gaza. In November, Nigeria also witnessed a pattern of increased bandit attacks following the US military intervention announcement. Looking ahead to 2026, bandits and insurgent groups may escalate as a deliberate strategy to gain global relevance and visibility.

Second, an increasing number of armed groups. Nigeria also sees a pattern of an increasing number of armed groups; the majority of them are rising as local defence groups formed by a frustrated population amidst a lack of effective governance in the conflict-hit peripheries. This implies that as long as the state remains exclusive to the centre, the country would likely witness not only an increase in the number of insecurity incidents but also the number of armed groups, counter-armed groups, coalitions, and factions.

Third, the US intervention. The US’s entry into addressing Nigeria’s security issues was a major positive development. However, it comes with a lot of domestic concerns. Trump’s narrative on the persecution of Christians has brought a religious weight to the US intervention, although data says otherwise. This trend would increase tensions between religious communities in the country and further increase instability. However, if taken a balanced stance, US counterterrorism efforts in Nigeria have the potential to improve the state's counterterrorism capacity. This implies that the counterterrorism efforts in Nigeria in 2026 would highly depend on the US narratives around its military intervention.

About the author 
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an Undergraduate student from Alliance University, Bengaluru. 

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