Strategic Forecast 2020

CWA # 226
Strategic Forecast 2020
The US in the Middle East: Flux or Status Quo in 2020?

Aswathy K
25 February 2020
Photo Source: Financial Times/EPA

CWA Brief, February 2020 

In analysing the trends in American foreign policy in the Middle East, one witness both continuations and differences, especially with the previous presidency

Background

In the United States, the 116th Congress convened in January 2019 with the Democrats having a clear majority. In April, Trump vetoed a move by Congress to end military assistance to Saudi Arabia in context of the civil war in Yemen (Landler and Baker, 2019). Israel banned Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar from visiting Palestine in August. Formal impeachment inquiry was launched in September. In October, a house vote of 560 opposed withdrawal of US forces in Syria. In reaction to Turkey’s actions in Syria, the Congress recognized the Armenian genocide. Congress approved military aid has been withheld from Lebanon by the White House (Berger, 2019).

As the proposed Iran nuclear deal became ineffective after American withdrawal in 2018, Iran started increasing its nuclear enrichment facing American sanctions. Since then, there have been a series of attacks by one side against the other, including Tehran shooting down an American drone and an Iranian oil tanker being held by the British (Britton, 2019).The development of Iran’s nuclear programme has put on edge its perceived rivals in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia allege that the attack on its oil processing facilities in September were carried out by Iran despite the Houthis claiming responsibility (“Saudi Arabia oil attacks: US to deploy thousands of extra troops”, 2019). 

Even if the attack on Saudi oil facilities was by the Houthis, the matter remains that they have Iranian backing. In a way, Iran is carrying out a proxy war against its rivals through mediums such as the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Hamas (Tabatabai and Clarke, 2019). ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed but the organization doesn’t seem to have been fully eradicated. 

Israel has dialled up its response with direct attacks on Iran-backed factions in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Gaza Strip, threatening their shadow war to become an all-out war (Aboudouh, 2019; Hincks, 2019). In relation to Israel, Kushner’s Israel-Palestine peace plan hopes to end the decade long conflict (Araud, 2019). The political plan has not been released yet, while the economic plan was found unsatisfactory by the Palestinians (Spetalnick, 2019). The US has cut all aid to Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza and, in November, declared that Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine are not illegal. In October, Trump announced the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, leaving northern Kurdish areas vulnerable to Turkish attacks. Due to international backlash and the possibility of ISIS regaining foothold, some US personnel will remain to guard the oil fields while the rest will relocate to Iraq (Ali, 2019).

 Major Trends in 2019

Regional Polarisation

What is evident from the developments this year is the clear regional polarization. As the US backed Israel and Saudi Arabia at the expense of being hostile towards Iran, it has accentuated regional rivalries. The diplomatic isolation and pressure on Iran has been extended to its allies, such as Qatar and Lebanon. The travel ban issued by the Trump administration (infamously called the Muslim Ban), targets citizens from Iran and its allied countries, such as Syria more than those from other Islamic nations. The pre-existing Sunni-Shia divide has further been emphasized by American actions. Obama used to diplomatically deal with regional powers to reach a compromise. Trump’s decision to back the Sunni horse has dissolved the Gulf countries of their responsibility to promote political reforms.  

 American Interests and Policies

It is generally said that American interests in the Middle East concentrate in three areas- oil, defense and terrorism. Many claim that the Iraq War was declared to boost American economy. Whether conspiracy or fact, it is true that the US has stakes in the area. But these stakes seem to be lowering recently. The US fracking might increase crude oil production to an extent that may eclipse OPEC counties’ domestic production by 2024. The recent killing of the ISIS chief has put the US into a sense of false security. Also if one looks at the election of Trump, one could witness the force of populism. One of the main aspects of the movement was anti-globalisation which views activities in foreign soil as benefiting others at the expense of America’s interests. People want their loved ones to come back from directionless battles (“Why are happy people voting for angry parties?” 2019). These domestic factors have influenced the tide in the favour of withdrawing.  

Every leader wants a legacy, a thing they are remembered when they are long gone, Trump is not different. The Middle East, a thorn by America’s side, offers several opportunities for the President to work through. The proposed peace deal between Israel and Palestine should be understood in this context. Though Trump’s migration restrictions, especially on selective Middle Eastern citizens, have a racist element, his economic policies needed to be understood within the context domestic concerns. His catchy slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) hints at recovering American Exceptionalism, a concept Obama has previously criticised (Kirchick, 2019). “America First” also points at reversing Obama’s policies which were comparatively pacifying and compromising, to reflect America’s self-interests more overtly. But Trump’s inability to cope with minor compromises, especially in the Middle East, will hurt American interests in the long run. 

 A House Divided

The fluctuation in foreign policy needs consideration in the context of the friction between a Republican headed White House and Democrat majority House of Representatives. While the latter had approved military aid to Lebanon, Trump stopped the package due to Israel’s concerns with Hezbollah’s influence on the Lebanese government. Similarly, the Trump ended Congress’s move to end American funding of the Yemen crisis. Trump also agreed with Israel’s decision to ban Congresswomen Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib from visiting the conflict area in Palestine due to their involvement in Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel (“Israel bars Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib from visiting”, 2019).

It is interesting to note that Trump’s actions, especially the decision to pull out of Syria, has generated criticism from within the Republican Party. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham, staunch Trump defenders, have condemned this move by Trump (“Institutional conservatives would condemn Donald Trump”, 2019). Republicans voted against Trump 2-1 in a resolution condemning Trump’s decision to abruptly withdraw from Syria (Benen, 2019). One could wonder whether Trump took such radical steps within the Middle East to take attention away from the impeachment hearings.

 The Trust Factor

Volatile actions by the global hegemon which abandons its friends at the time of need will definitely lower the trust of any current and future American allies. A country’s foreign policy is generally considered to be based on a consensus no matter how brutal the domestic rivalry is. Even if there are changes, the modifications are developed gradually to create a single narrative for diplomatic purposes. Trump’s actions make it seem like that American backing is fickle and dependent on the current President. Thus a deal agreed upon in the past will not hold sway in future. This will make the current partners insecure and future allies hesitant.  

 Russian Inroads

A lesson that Trump is yet to learn is that economic sanction cannot hold out forever. He is using that against Iran and lately used it as threat against Turkey if it decides to invade the Kurdish region in Syria. Similarly, the EU has also imposed sanctions. At the same time, Russia is trying to be friendly towards both nations. This gives Russia stakes in the region and the ability to influence policy. Russia has also started becoming friendly towards the Gulf countries and bridging gap between them and Syria (Rumer, 2019). Russia has kept all its promises, such as supporting Syria. In contrast, American allies have been disheartened that Trump has not followed through with his promised tough actions against Iran, especially after the attack on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

 Differences, Continuities and Trump

Thus, in analysing the trends in American foreign policy in the Middle East, one witnesses both continuations and differences, especially with the previous presidency. Aspects of continuity, which can be traced back to Obama’s presidency, can be witnessed in the way America still prioritizes combating ISIS in the region (even though there is a chance that might change in the future) and works its regional allies. Previously, Obama tried to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East to create a gradual withdrawal. The differences are stark in the way the US has gradually strengthened the Israel-Saudi axis while increasing hostility towards Iran. These measures favours Trump’s political base while undermining Obama’s efforts in the region. In comparing continuities and differences to last year, there are more continuities. Trump had announced sudden withdrawal of troops from Syria in December 2018 but had to reverse on the policy after consultation with advisors. The advisors were not able to coax him (Syria conflict: Trump slows down troop withdrawal, 2019). Similarly, recognition of Israel at the expense of Palestine has been strengthened. The announcement of the shift of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem was announced in 2017 and acted on by 2018 (Halbfinger, D. M., I. Kershner & D. Walsh, 2018).

There is no indication of a clear foreign policy concerning the Middle East. This might be due to the unstable cabinet surrounding Trump, whose presidency saw three National Security Advisors and one Secretary of State resigning. Despite hiccups, Trump went against consultation by his advisors. He refused tough stance against Iran, the way John Bolton wanted him to. The amount of power Trump holds and the way he wields it, has numerous implications. As the paper focuses largely on the period 2019-20, it focuses on Trump’s policies. Thus, American foreign policy in many areas, in the form it exists currently has been equated to Trump’s actions.

 Forecasts for 2020 

 Selective Withdrawal

Based on the analysis that American foreign policy in the Middle East is both in flux and consistency, what could be visible is a selective withdrawal. The US might physically leave the Middle East in 2020 or least reduce its visible presence drastically if Trump has his way. But that doesn’t translate to ending US’s influence over the area. This is evident in the present scenario where American troops are still stationed around oil facilities in Syria (Friedman, 2019). The US would continue to fund the various wars through sale of weapons and military aid to allies. For some time now, the US has been a moderator in the Middle East, but its decision to back some players at the expense of others will put the region in disarray.

Higher risks of open conflicts

With the US withdrawing not only physically but also as a mediating force, there will be a high chance of regional wars. The volatile nature of Iran’s proxies might just be the match which lights the flame. One is reminded in this instance of the role of the Serbian Black Hand in starting the First World War. In such a situation, the cold wars in the region could transform to hot wars which means that Iran against Saudi and Israel will have to physically fight each other. Areas like Syria, Iraq and Yemen will become extended centers of conflict. Another way a war could possibly break out is if Iran feels boxed into a corner and feel that the only way out of economic sanctions is an all-out war. This might push Iran seek support from Russia, the other great power in the region, to even out the playing field. 

Increase in Russian influence

With foothold in Syria, this could create further inroads into the region for Russia. Russia could increase its influence in the region by filling the American vacuum. Russia’s relations within the neighbourhood will increase at the expense of the US. Turkey, if pushed enough, could turn towards Russia. In addition, it faces isolation even within NATO, it faces isolation. This will be harmful the EU, an American ally, as Turkey is the one preventing further refugee crisis. If it is not provided a “safe space” as it has proposed in Syria, it might stop holding back Syrian refugees. This will create another round of Refugee Crisis. 

 Arab Spring 2.0

Another avenue that could follow is that of a Second Arab Spring. The civilian rebellions in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon have started being called the Arab Spring 2.0 (Muasher, 2019). These countries, are areas with considerable Iranian influence, that provide avenues for the US to fund the conflict and create disharmony in the region, as some claim it is doing in Hong Kong. But with the Americans backing out, this won’t be the case. It has been in the American interests to maintain status quo in the Middle East so to not upset the global oil production. Thus it has always given tacit support to the dictatorial regimes who function in American interests. So in a void of American power, another round of democratic struggles might actually get chance as America loses its self-gifted voice for implementing democracy.

 Loss of Confidence in America

As Americans show that they do not hesitate to abandon allies, the latter will have to forge new ties. The Kurds will have to turn to Bashar al-Assad for protection against Turkey that will weaken their claim for autonomy. It also means they might be hesitant to ally with the US again if the latter decides to come back to the Middle East. The issue of distrust will factor in future alliance the US might try to build up in this region. If the US decides to leave the region in entirety, the previously blocked links between Iran and Hezbollah will be functional again. This will be the ultimate betrayal of the strongest American ally in the region, Israel. But due to the strength of the Jewish lobby, such a situation will not come to pass. Additionally, one cannot guarantee that Israel will not lose confidence in American competency in the region.

 Return of the ISIS

There are chances for the resurgence of the ISIS in the region. Earlier, the US’s involvement in the Middle East was to counter ISIS. American retreat in Syria might lead to ISIS regaining its foothold in the regions it had earlier lost. Yet another font may open if Iran decides to wage war on Israel and Saudi Arabia. Subsequent chaos will accelerate ISIS’s regrowth as its enemies attack each other. Its sudden rise in 2014 was possible due to massive jailbreaks and a repeat is possible in 2020. As the US cleans its resources from the area, it will be ill-equipped to deal with ISIS again. There are chances of renewal of ties between ISIS and Al-Qaeda which will spell doom for the region. 

 Republican backlash

Many hardliner Republicans have generally backed Trump through some questionable policy decisions. But it was on the issue of sudden withdrawal, leading to abandonment of allies while inadvertently benefitting rivals, that many Republicans draw the line. Though Trump has about 90 per cent approval ratings within the party (“Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump”, 2019), the impeachment proceedings might turn the tide. It is highly likely that the House of Representatives will impeach the President that will be up to the Senate to vote. The general prediction is that due to the Republican majority in the Senate, Trump’s presidency is secure. But there is a chance that Trump’s decisions regarding the Middle East and other scandals that may arise during the impeachment just to tip the scale against Trump within the GOP. In such a case, Mike Pence will become the President and the Republicans will have to rally behind another candidate for the Presidential elections.  

 End of Manifest Destiny 

American actions seem to state an end to the one and a half centuries long ideal of Manifest Destiny. Though originally, it was used in the context of westward expansion, it later fit well in the narrative of American imperialism and interventionism. The US, for a long time, justified interference in foreign land for the cause of freedom as the self-appointed leader of the world. Now, Trump states that the Middle East is “7000 miles away.” There might be a shift on how the US views itself and its mission. Though this might seem to extend predictions, but if seen in the light of the Long Cycle Theory, it might herald the beginning of the end of the American hegemony, replacing itself by another power.

 Wildcards

The most visible wildcards in this scenario is the 2020 Presidential Election. As one questions whether domestic reasons exist for foreign policy initiatives, one thing is sure- Donald Trump could undertake fancy steps for appeasement to win over the swing votes. The drastic pull-out in Syria seemed Trump was keeping up on his electoral promises which could extend to Afghanistan. In the case of withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan, it is unsure whether the next President will try to reverse Trump’s decision to close what can be considered the sore on America’s side for a long time. But a Democratic win in 2020 might lead to reversal of foreign policies in the Middle East and is less likely to back Israel and Saudi Arabia thoroughly. 

References

  1. Landler, M and P. Baker. (2019). Trump Vetoes Measure to Force End to US Involvement in Yemen War. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/trump-veto-yemen.html
  2.  Berger, M. (2019). The US uses aid to lean on foreign states — but not always with the same intentions or results. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/11/02/us-uses-aid-lean-foreign-states-not-always-with-same-intentions-or-results/
  3. Britton, B. (2019). Here's what you need to know about the US-Iran crisis. Retrieved 23 December, 2019 from https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/21/politics/iran-us-brink-of-war-explainer-intl/index.html
  4. Saudi Arabia oil attacks: US to deploy thousands of extra troops. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50021138
  5. Tabatabai, A. and C.P. Clarke. (2019). Iran’s Proxies Are More Powerful Than Ever. Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/16/irans-proxies-hezbollah-houthis-trump-maximum-pressure/
  6. Aboudouh, A. (2019). Middle East Explained: Why are Iran and Israel on the brink of war? Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/iran-israel-war-airstrikes-syria-middle-east-a9085316.html
  7. Hincks, J. (2019). Israel Is Escalating Its Shadow War With Iran. Here's What to Know. Retrieved from https://time.com/5664654/israel-iran-shadow-war/
  8. Araud, G. (2019). Is Trump Right About Middle-East Peace? Retrieved from https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/israel-palestine-peace-process-donald-trump-by-gerard-araud-2019-10
  9. Spetalnick, M. (2019). US opens debate on Mideast economic plan shunned by Palestinians. Retrieved 31 December, 2019 from https://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL8N23X16I?feedType=RSS&feedName=egyptNews
  10. Ali, I. (2019). All US troops withdrawing from Syria expected to go to western Iraq: Pentagon chief. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-usa/all-us-troops-withdrawing-from-syria-expected-to-go-to-western-iraq-pentagon-chief-idUSKBN1WZ01S
  11. Why are happy people voting for angry parties? 2019. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/international/2019/07/11/why-are-happy-people-voting-for-angry-parties
  12.  Kirchick, J. (2019). Squanderer in chief. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-apr-28-oe-kirchick28-story.html
  13. Israel bars Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib from visiting. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49363041
  14. Institutional conservatives would condemn Donald Trump. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/10/10/institutional-conservatives-would-condemn-donald-trump
  15. Benen, S. (2019). House delivers the most bipartisan rebuke of Trump’s presidency. Retrieved from http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/house-delivers-the-most-bipartisan-rebuke-trumps-presidency
  16. Rumer, E. (2019). Russia in the Middle East: Jack of All Trades, Master of None. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/31/russia-in-middle-east-jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none-pub-80233
  17. Syria conflict: Trump slows down troop withdrawal. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46723603
  18. Halbfinger, D. M.; I. Kershner & D. Walsh. (2018). Retreived from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/world/middleeast/gaza-protests-palestinians-us-embassy.html
  19. Friedman, U. (2019). The Consequences of Donald Trump Washing His Hands of the Middle East. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/10/donald-trump-middle-east-consequences/600610/
  20. Muasher, M. (2019). Is This the Arab Spring 2.0? Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/30/is-this-arab-spring-2.0-pub-80220
  21. Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump. (2019). Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Aswathy K is pursuing her Masters in International Studies from CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru 

This essay was published at the NIAS Quarterly on Contemporary World Affairs, Vol 2, Issue 1, January-March 2020  


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Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter�
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan