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CWA # 1683
TWTW Note
Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
The World This Week #312 Vol 7, No 21, 25 May 2025

  Aashish Ganeshan
25 May 2025

The following note was first published as a part of The World This Week #312 Vol 7, No 21, 25 May 2025 

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
Aashish Ganeshan

What happened?
On 18 May 2025, Portugal voted in the snap general election for the 17th Legislature of Assembleia da República, (Parliament). The right-wing radical Chega party recorded a historic breakthrough, equaling the Socialist Party (PS)’s number of  58 parliament seats. The incumbent center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), to which the current  Prime Minister Luís Montenegro belongs, stood as the largest bloc with 89 seats but stayed short of an absolute majority  (116 seats). The election saw a fragmented parliament where no party or coalition had a clear majority. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro reaffirmed his resolve to establish a government without Chega on the grounds of fundamental ideological differences.

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the recent elections in 2022 and 2024. In the 2024 election, the AD party gained 80 seats just slightly over the PS, which gained 78 seats. Chega party was also strong with 50 seats. In 2022, the PS gained 120 seats, and AD and Chega had 80 and 12 seats respectively. The 2025 election was the third general election within three years, showing continued political instability due to underlying issues.

Second, the emergence of Chega party as a serious political force. Founded in 2019,  the party has quickly expanded from an outlier to the third-largest party. Under the leadership of André Ventura, the party took advantage of dissatisfaction with established parties, advocating for a platform based on nationalism, anti-immigration policy, and law-and-order initiatives. Chega's rise has broken the established two-party stranglehold of the PS and AD.

Third, major electoral issues. Portugal is experiencing a housing crisis with rising rents and a lack of affordable housing. The election was shaped by housing affordability concerns, pressures on the healthcare system, and political corruption. The healthcare system is strained with long waiting lists and a shortage of resources. Corruption scandals have damaged public confidence in traditional parties, driving support for anti-establishment movements such as Chega.

What does it mean?
First, the AD is likely to establish a minority government. With 89 seats, the AD falls short of the 116 seats required for a majority government. Prime Minister Montenegro has already excluded the possibility of a government of national unity with Chega due to ideological differences. This reduces coalition possibilities. It is anticipated that a weak minority government dependent on smaller party support or ad hoc arrangements may emerge.

Second, road map for PS and Chega. PS is likely to be confronted by internal issues after its election loss. Winning only 58 seats, the PS had one of its worst performances in decades. The party leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned, and the party is now in search of a new leader. On the other hand, Chega's emergence indicates that the landscape of Portuguese politics is changing. The party's power might influence legislative discussions, especially concerning immigration and national identity, even if the party is not in the ruling coalition.
Third, the outcome of the elections indicates wider European pattern - weakening of established party systems and the growth of populist sentiments.
 

About the author 
Aashish Ganeshan is a post graduate student at Madras Christian College.

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