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CWA # 1340, 2 June 2024
The World This Week
South Africa Elections and the Decline of ANC, China-Arab States Summit, and Trump Trial Verdict Fallouts

  GP Team

The World This Week #267, Vol. 6 No. 21
02 June 2024

Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis and Dhriti Mukherjee

South Africa Elections 2024: Early results imply the end of ANC domination
Anu Maria Joseph

What happened?
On 29 May, South Africa held its national and provincial elections. It was the seventh election since the end of the apartheid regime in 1994. This year, South Africa also marks 30 years since the first inclusive democratic elections that ended the Apartheid regime.

The polls were reported to be relatively peaceful. On 31 May, 90 per cent of the poll results were declared, with the African National Congress (ANC) leading with 41.04 per cent, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 21.72 per cent. Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EEF) secured 9.46 per cent and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) with 13.69 per cent. Officially, the results will be declared on 2 June.

What is the background?
First, a background to South Africa's elections. In 1994, all South Africans voted for the first time, marking the end of the apartheid. Since 1994, it had six elections, all won by the African National Congress (ANC). There were 27 million registered voters this year; in the previous elections (held in 2019), it was 26 million. The ANC, led by current President Cyril Ramaphosa, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) under John Steenhuisen, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema, and Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto we Sizwe party are the major parties running this year.

Second, the ANC's decline. Popular support for the ANC took a swift downturn from 70 per cent in 2004 to 57 per cent in 2019. It was the first time the party secured votes below 60 per cent. The continuing debate on racial inequalities, increasing unemployment, poverty, crime rates, power outages, and corruption are major issues that have caused the declining popularity of the ANC. The majority of ANC's popular leaders are known for corruption. Current President Cyril Ramphosa was accused of corruption in 2022 after USD 580,000 of cash was found in a sofa on his game farm, with the money later stolen by robbers. Additionally, several popular leaders, including former President Jacob Zuma, left the party to form one of their own, which has divided the ANC's votes.

Third, the debate on continuing apartheid. Despite the ANC's credentials for ending the apartheid, the party's 30-year rule failed to eradicate racial inequality. It is institutionalized now through a new form of economic apartheid. The poor and vulnerable, who are dominantly black and were promised land and house reformation during the 90s by ANC, are pushed to the peripheries of Cape Town. According to OCHR, the country faces unequal access to education and pay, segregated communities, and economic disparities, which the institutions and the society reinforce. In 2022, the World Bank ranked South Africa as the most unequal country in the world, wherein the majority of the inequalities are on racial lines.

Fourth, socio-economic issues. In South Africa, ten per cent of the affluent population holds 85 per cent of the country's wealth. According to the World Inequality Lab data, although the top black population has outnumbered the white population among the ten per cent, the wealth of the poor has not increased. The unemployment rate has reached 37 per cent. According to Statista, South Africa has the highest crime index of 75.4, with 3,934 women and 1,122 children murdered between April 2022 and March 2023. 

What does it mean?
The peaceful nature of the elections implies success. However, the state of democracy is in question. The inequality, crime, and corruption rates, added to failed checks and balances, indicate an inefficient democracy.
The majority of the population thinks highly of the party which led the apartheid movement. However, the declining popularity would also mean that the young and the future generations are immune to the party's Apartheid card. As it is likely that the ANC will lose a single majority, the party should get ready for a coalition. A coalition with any major opposition parties would be a hard choice for the ANC, considering those parties' antagonism towards the party. Forming a coalition with multiple minor parties will take a lot of work. Besides, South Africa's constitution does not provide provisions for forming a coalition. The new government would be in a larger crisis in forming and running a coalition.

China-Arab States Summit: Xi's "Five Cooperation Framework" as a new Middle East Pivot
Femy Francis

What happened?
On 30 May, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted leaders of Arab countries, including Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. The summit witnessed the adoption of the "Beijing Declaration" on issues relating to conflict and regional crises and an "Actional Implementation Plan" for boosting China-Arab ties in various sectors: economy, politics, aviation, and infrastructure. 
A highlight of the summit was Xi Jinping's "Five Cooperation Framework" for Sino-Arab relations. It includes the following:
1.  A dynamic framework for innovation, the cooperation between the two countries would be based on innovative development. China and Arab countries would set up joint laboratories in sectors of health, AI, and green/ low carbon initiatives.
2. A framework for investment and finance cooperation, where they plan to set up an investment cooperation forum and increase the China-Arab interbank association. 
3. Multifaceted initiative for energy cooperation to enhance strategic cooperation with the Arab countries on oil and gas energy supply. 
4. Balanced economic and trade ties to accelerate negotiations for a regional free trade agreement. 
5. Encourage people-to-people exchange to establish the China-Arab Centre of Global Civilization Initiative and expand the influence of the China-Arab Research Centre on Reform and Development. 

What is the background?
First, a background to the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF). It was founded 20 years ago to initiate formal dialogue between China and the Arab League. It came after the then-Chinese President Hu Jintao visited the Arab League headquarters in Cairo. He proposed four guiding principles for their interactions: mutual respect, economic trade and exchanges, cultural exchanges, and promoting peace and common development in the international arena.

Second, emphasis on the economic partnership and FTA. Economic gains are the most basic and prolonged interest that led to this cooperation. The Arab countries especially UAE for whom China has been the biggest trading partner while for China, UAE is the biggest trading partner amongst the Arab countries. For years, China has been pushing for establishing a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council and a free-flowing economic cooperation.

What does it mean?
First, China's search for new alliances. Beijing is carefully cultivating new partners to gather global support for contentious issues like the status of Taiwan, the imposition of controversial bills in Hong Kong, and the Human Rights abuse in Xinjiang. The Arab states have been the most consistent in upholding the "One-China" principle. The alliance benefits China and Arab states by being a common voice for peace in Gaza.

Second, China's emphasis on energy cooperation. The Arab states have some of the world's richest oil reserves, which have attracted investors worldwide. Beijing has stressed building cooperation with the Arab states on energy cooperation, and the success of the same would give them access to the richest reserves. As one of the world's largest economies and demography, China needs to fulfill its energy needs based on resource consolidation.

Third, a common voice for a cease-fire in the Israel-Palestine war. Other than the Arab states and a few others, China has been a vocal advocate for peace in Gaza and has offered itself as a mediator in the conflict. This support dates back to the initiation of the conflict on 07 October 2023. China has time and again supported the establishment of the "two-state" and has called for Palestine's representation in the United Nations.

The Trump Trial: The Jury's Verdict and its Fallouts
Dhriti Mukherjee

What happened?
On 30 May, a New York jury found former US President Donald Trump guilty in a hush-money case, convicting him on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The judge will announce the sentencing decision on 11 July. Trump is the first US President to be both criminally tried and convicted in a case where he was accused of falsifying business records concerning a hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. 
Following two days of deliberations, the 12-member jury found Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts. This included 11 charges of invoice for legal services, 11 charges for checks paid for legal services, and 12 charges for ledger entries for legal services.

What is the background?
First, the long trial. On 19 April 2024, lawyers for both sides finished choosing 12 jurors. Of the 22 witnesses, Cohen and Daniels were the most important. Others included former Trump White House aide, Trump's former assistant, and the former National Enquirer publisher. BBC cited former prosecutors who contended that Trump's team lacked a counter-narrative and had a flawed strategy, meaning that the "defence never had a story that the jury could accept." Trump's team failed to discredit Cohen, a star witness who had a history of lying to Congress. While the payment of USD 130,000 made to Daniels is in itself not illegal, the case revolved around how Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, had recorded the reimbursement in Trump's records. After that, Trump approved a scheme to disguise the reimbursement to Cohen as legal expenses to cover up the hush money. 

Second, the unanimous verdict. At the end of the trial, the jury was asked to rehear testimony from Cohen and David Pecker. Pecker is the former publisher of the National Enquirer tabloid and had told jurors that he had worked with Trump to suppress stories that could have affected his campaign. Additionally, they asked the judge to repeat directions regarding their deliberations. They were told that to find Trump guilty, they must determine that Trump "made or caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise" to "defraud that included an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof." Merchan instructed them to consider "all the evidence presented, whether by the people or by the defendant."

Third, the role of key witnesses. Though there were 22 witnesses, there were three key individuals. Cohen was the prosecution's key witness; he provided an insider's view of the hush money scheme during his testimony. He claimed that Trump had told him to "just take care of it." The second was Daniels; she confirmed that Trump paid her money in exchange for her silence and shared alleged intimate details. The third was Pecker, a longtime friend of Trump who told the jury that he had agreed to be the "eyes and ears" of Trump's campaign. Pecker had told the editor-in-chief of American Media Inc, a company he was overseeing for more than two decades, that favours for Trump had to be kept "highly confidential." 

What does it mean?
First, Trump's refusal to accept the verdict. Despite being found guilty on 34 counts, Trump's remarks after the verdict showed his unwillingness to accept or even acknowledge the implications. After leaving the courtroom, he asserted, "This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be on 05 November by the people. They know what happened, and everyone knows what happened here." 

Second, the unlikeliness of Trump to get a prison sentence. Trump faces up to four years in prison for each felony count; however, it is widely expected that he will instead be placed under house arrest or have to pay a fine as he is a first-time offender and has been convicted for the lowest category of non-violent felony. He is free to keep running for president and still has a high chance of winning.

TWTW Regional Round-ups

News from around the World
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith, Mugdha ChaturvediAyan Datta, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Sanjay Manivanan, and Navinan G V

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Saudi Arabia becomes the first country to invest in a Chinese AI startup, Zhipu AI
On 31 May, Saudi Arabia made headlines by investing in a Chinese AI startup, Zhipu AI. It became the first foreign country to invest in China's domestic generative AI rival, Open AI. Prosperity 7, the venture capitalist arm of ARAMCO, has invested around USD 400 million in Zhipu AI. Due to US restrictions, all previous Chinese AI apps have depended on Chinese government funds. A source close to the fund said: "The investment demonstrates Saudi's willingness to support an ecosystem that could guard against US dominance in AI. The Saudis don't want Silicon Valley dominating this industry." A tech consultant commented on the importance of Saudi Arabia to the Chinese ecosystem despite the absence of US funds. Meanwhile, the US has increased pressure on other countries to stop supporting China's tech sector through investments or exports of cutting-edge tech.

China: US Defence Ministers held first in-person meeting at Shangri-La Dialogue
On 31 May, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun and US Defence Minister Llyod Austin held the first in-person bilateral meeting since 2022 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. This is the first in-person meeting since a phone call in April, during which they discussed issues such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Bilateral relations dipped after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. This meeting is an attempt by both countries to restore military communication. Senior Colonel Wu Qian, the Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesperson, said: "The bilateral meeting between Dong Jun and Llyod Austin was positive, practical, and constructive communication at the strategic level. The meeting had a positive effect on promoting understanding and avoiding miscalculations." Austin expressed concern about recent provocative PLA activity around the Taiwan Strait in his press release, reaffirming the importance of peace and stability near the self-ruled island. According to the press release, Austin said: "Beijing shouldn't use Taiwan's political transition process as a pretext of coercive measures."
 
China: Tunisia celebrates 60 years of diplomatic ties
On 30 May, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met the Tunisian President Kais Saied in Beijing. This year marks the 60th Anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. On this occasion, Li said: "Noting that over the past 60 years, China-Tunisia relations have maintained sound and steady development, benefitting the two peoples." China expressed its willingness to cooperate with Tunisia in various fields for a better future. Saied said: "Since establishing diplomatic ties, bilateral relations have achieved rapid development and pragmatic cooperation has achieved fruitful results. Tunisia firmly abides by the One-China principle and unwaveringly supports China in safeguarding its national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

China: Removes ban on Australian beef processing facilities
On 30 May, the Australian government said China removed the ban on Australia's five major beef processing facilities. It said that Beijing removed restrictions from eight abattoirs, but two were subjected to import bans. China imposed the ban in 2020 and 2022, which restricted the export of coal, timber, and wine from Australia after Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. Agricultural consultant Matt Dalgleish says that the reduction in US supply of beef exports due to shrinking cattle herds has been one reason for China's ban reversal. China's import ban has affected Australian exports worth up to 13.6 billion. China stated the reasons for the ban included issues over labelling, contamination or cases of COVID-19 among their workers.

China: IMF upgrades economic forecast for China to 5 per cent and warns against inefficient policies
On 29 May, the Financial Times reported on the IMF upgrading its forecast for China. The IMF assessment found that the gross domestic product growth would be 5 per cent in 2024 than the 4.6 per cent it previously reckoned. The change in the forecast was driven by the exceptional success in the first quarter of China, where they are seeing an upward trajectory in their economy after a dip. While there has been visible growth, the IMF also urged that they abolish inefficient industrial policies that could affect their trading partners. Rather, they should focus more on pushing domestic consumption. The statement is made in light of the recent complaints by the West that Chinese overcapacity to produce is ruining the market and the competition. The IMF said: "Key priorities include rebalancing the economy towards consumption by strengthening the social safety net and liberalizing the services sector to enable it to boost growth potential and create jobs."

China: Republic of Equatorial Guinea affirm their friendship
On 28 May, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the Republic of Equatorial Guinea President, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, to discuss elevating their bilateral cooperation and strategic partnership. Xi Jinping affirmed that they support Equatorial Guinea's ambition to protect its national sovereignty and independence. He also said: "China is ready to elevate bilateral ties to further deepen friendly exchanges with Equatorial Guinea, and exchange experience in reform, development and poverty alleviation to inject lasting impetus into the two countries." After the meeting, Obiang and Xi signed multiple documents on cooperation and investments based on the economy, green development, and implementation of the Global Development Initiative. Obiang also expressed solidarity and said: "China and Equatorial Guinea have steadily advanced major cooperation projects in infrastructure construction, technical assistance and other areas. Projects, such as the port of Bata on the Gulf of Guinea and the Djibloho Hydropower Plant, built or aided by Chinese enterprises, have brought tangible improvements to the life of local people." 

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC THIS WEEK
South Korea: UAE and South Korea sign the CEPA
On 29 May, the UAE signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea. This comes as UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol during his visit to Seoul. UAE's sovereign wealth fund and companies have reaffirmed their commitment to invest USD 30 billion in South Korea. The leaders have signed 19 business deals and MOUs involving investment in energy, nuclear power, defence technology, climate change, and cultural exchanges. UAE's sovereign Wealth Fund, Mubadala Investment Co., and other companies have announced their plans to invest USD 06 billion in South Korea and have signed an MOU with the Ministry of Economy and Finance. ADNOC has signed a letter of intent with two Korean companies to build six LNG carriers worth USD 1.5 billion. The UAE President's visit involved a series of business meetings and cultural events. 

North Korea: Sends balloons carrying rubbish to South Korea 
On 29 May, the North Korean regime was accused of sending balloons carrying rubbish to South Korea. Photographs released by the South Korean military showed inflated balloons with plastic bags and trash with 'excrement' written on them.  According to the Yonhap news agency, it is reported that more than 150 balloons crossed the border. The explosive ordnance unit and biological and chemical warfare response team were deployed to inspect and collect the objects. The Joint Chief of Staff said: "These acts by NK violate international law and seriously threaten our people's safety. We sternly warn North Korea to immediately stop these inhumane and vulgar acts." The North Korean Vice-Defence Minister has called these acts as retaliation to the anti-North Korean leaflets flown across the border. South Korean activists criticized this act and urged North Korean citizens to rise against Kim's regime. In 2020, South Korean President Moon took action and criminalized leafleting campaigns.  But in 2021, this law was struck down by the constitutional court calling this as the restriction on free speech. Such propaganda balloons have been a continuous source of tension between the two Koreas. 

Taiwan: Parliament passes controversial bill expanding legislative power
On 28 May, Taiwan's legislative Yuan passed highly controversial legislation, ignoring the protests staged by the Taiwanese people against the bill that expands legislative power. The new legislation allows the lawmakers to require the President to give regular reports to the Parliament and answer their questions. The bill was proposed by the opposition KMT and TPP, which hold the majority in Taiwan's legislative body. The legislation also states that if not followed, government officials will find the accused in contempt of Parliament. Critics have argued that this resolution is vague and pro-China. They also argue that it lacked the checks and balance mechanisms required to prevent the abuse of power. The bill also gives the legislature control of the budget and defence spending. This enables them to demand that the military, private companies or individuals disclose relevant information quoted by parliamentarians, and in turn, this could risk national security. The bill has been facing wide opposition from the people and the opposition parties in Taiwan. 

Japan: Lawmakers discuss reforms in political party funding
On 28 May, Japan's ruling and opposition parties started full-fledged discussions for revising the law regarding political funding. This comes a week after the parliamentary debates, which failed to bring in consensus regarding party funding. Both sides have decided to accelerate the discussions before the parliamentary session ends. However, there have been contentions among lawmakers on issues mainly related to handling corporate donations and fundraising by the parties. The LDP is holding a firm stand on keeping the mandatory reporting threshold for fundraising party tickets at JPY 100,000, reducing it from the current JPY 200,000. The LDP's insistence on having that limit has caused a rift in the ruling coalition, hinting it would submit the bill without the support of its coalition party, Komeito. In the LDP's proposal, the party would provide rough reports on using funds only under certain conditions. There have also been parties in the opposition that submitted the proposal to abolish all fundraising parties from 2026 completely.

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Nepal: Fiscal budget 2024-25
On 28 May, The Kathmandu Post reported that the Finance Minister, Barshaman Pun, commenced the budget presentation for the upcoming fiscal year 2024-25 at the joint session of the Parliament. The presentation follows the Nepali Congress lifting its obstruction of Parliament, which had been ongoing since 15 March, due to an agreement on the terms of reference of a parliamentary committee to investigate cooperative fraud. The finance minister emphasized that economic indicators are showing improvement, citing the success of the third investment summit in attracting foreign investment and boosting the morale of the private sector. The budget looked at boosting the private sector, reviving the agricultural economy, and increasing foreign investments. 

Pakistan: Foreign loans amounting to USD 7.14 billion in the current fiscal
On 30 May, The News International reported that Pakistan had received 7.14 billion dollars in foreign loans in the first ten months of the current fiscal. This excludes the USD 3 billion provided by the International Monetary Fund under the Standby Arrangement (SBA) programme. If this is added, the total disbursement will amount to USD 10.3 billion, less than USD 13 billion received during the last ten months of the previous fiscal. The 7.14 billion dollars in foreign loans also include a USD 100 million oil facility from the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) facility of ITFC. However, Pakistan's requested oil facility on deferred payment from Saudi Arabia has not been resumed yet. Separately, the Ministry of Finance has accepted that "expenditure remains under significant pressure due to rising mark-up rate." This has been managed by adopting "a prudent expenditure management strategy," leading to a reduction in the mark-up rate. Consequently, a primary surplus of 1.5 per cent of GDP has been achieved, raising hopes that the full-year primary surplus target of 0.4 per cent of GDP can be met.

Pakistan: Launches second communication satellite PAKSAT MM-1 from China
On 30 May, Pakistan launched its second communication satellite, PAKSAT MM-1, from China's Xichang Satellite Launch Center (XSLC). It will deploy at an altitude of 36,000-kilo metres above the Earth and will take three to four days to stabilize in its designated orbit. It is aimed at advancing the country's "digital communication infrastructure." Suparco stated: "The satellite is expected to contribute to the establishment of a sophisticated communication network and help meet the growing demands of the telecom sector." PAKSAT MM-1 weighs five tons and carries the latest communication equipment. Suparco detailed that the satellite's advanced capabilities will address the increasing demand for high-speed internet and seamless connectivity. It will also provide communication services in C, Ku, and Ka Bands and SBAS services in L Band. Prime Minister praised the successful launch stating "I, along with the entire nation, am proud of our scientists' achievement."

Pakistan: Imran Khan acquitted in two more 9 May cases
On 30 May, a district and sessions court in Islamabad acquitted Imran Khan in two more 9 May related cases due to "insufficient evidence." Judicial Magistrate Umar Shabbir announced the reserved verdict. The cases were registered in the Shahzad Town police station after Khan's arrest on 9 May from the Islamabad High Court (IHC) premises that had triggered nationwide protests, including attacks on military installations. PTI lawyer Mirza Asim Baig stated that the FIR was lodged against Imran Khan, accusing him of Section 109. However, no evidence had been provided. According to the Judicial Magistrate's verdict, the FIR had accused Khan of inciting others. The verdict claimed insufficient evidence to prove Imran Khan's guilt, and it stated, "the court cannot proceed with the case against the PTI founder based on such evidence." Earlier this month, Khan was also acquitted in another 9 May case registered at Khanna Police Station.

Pakistan: 26th Anniversary of its nuclear tests
On 28 May, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared a public holiday across Pakistan to observe Youm-i-Takbeer, the day when Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests in the year 1998. The tests were conducted at the Ras Koh hills in the Chaghai District of Balochistan. On the occasion, Prime Minister Sharif, in a statement, reminisced about the event and stated, "Youm-i-Takbeer reminds how the entire Pakistani nation got united on that day to make the country's defence invincible." Further, he reiterated that commemorating this day was about renewing the vow that "we will always remain ready to thwart the nefarious designs of external and internal enemies, who want to endanger the country." He emphasized that this day was also about paying tribute to then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistani Army for the role they played in making Pakistan an atomic power. He also paid tribute to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for starting the nuclear programme and the scientists for their contribution.

Pakistan: Supports 'One China' policy, says PM Sharif
On 26 May, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to X to reemphasize Pakistan's unwavering support of Beijing's "One China" policy on the Taiwan issue, describing Taiwan as an "inalienable part of the People's Republic of China." Calling Pakistan an "iron-brother and strategic partner of China," he assured that Pakistan would continue extending its "principled support to the Chinese position on Taiwan." Sharif contended that the "so-called elections or transition of the self-proclaimed government in Taiwan do not change the objective facts on the Taiwan issue." Similar sentiments have been expressed in the past by the governments of Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif.

Afghanistan: Denies involvement in Bisham attack, says it will not help Pakistan
On 31 May, the interim Taliban government of Afghanistan declined Pakistan's request to find the perpetrators of the 26 March terrorist attack in Bisham, saying it had nothing to do with the incident. Earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had sent the interior secretary to Kabul to seek assistance from Afghanistan in the probe into the attack on Chinese engineers. Interior Secretary Muhammad Khurram Agha shared evidence linking the attack on the engineers with Afghan territory. Further, the Foreign Office, in a statement, noted: "The Afghan side reiterated its commitment to prevent the use of their soil for any terrorist activity against other countries, including Pakistan." Despite this, the spokesperson for the Afghan Taliban government, Zabihullah Mujahid, rejected the statement and alleged that Pakistan was trying to create distrust between Kabul and Beijing. He argued that the "issue has nothing to do with Afghanistan and Pakistan should ensure its own security." He added: "Targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan is related to Pakistan and has nothing to do with Afghanistan. The report published by Pakistanis is an attempt to create distrust between China and Afghanistan. We have repeatedly denied this, and it is also illogical."

THE CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS THIS WEEK
Armenia:  Calls for resignation of PM
On 27 May, tens of thousands of Armenian protestors urged Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign after the country agreed to 'handover' the control of border villages to Azerbaijan. The protestors clashed with police after blocking major streets in Yerevan, the police claimed that they had arrested 196 people. The protest was led by high ranking cleric in the Armenian Apostolic church and archbishop of the Tavush diocese in Armenia's northeast.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA THIS WEEK
Israel: Airstrikes kill 45 in 'safe zone'
On 26 May, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, Israeli air strikes killed 45 people in a camp in Rafah, which Israel had declared a "safe zone." According to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), two senior Hamas officials were killed during the air strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the fatal attack which struck the IDP camp in Rafah as a "tragic accident." Netanyahu in Knesset stated: "In Rafah, we evacuated a million uninvolved residents and, despite our best efforts, a tragic accident happened." He added: "We are investigating the case and will draw the conclusions." Subsequently, Hamas said that it had launched eight rockets at Tel Aviv for the first time in several months. 

Lebanon: Blocks an offer from Qatar
On 30 May, the Lebanese caretaker economy minister Walid Fayyad asserted that Lebanon's 'political class, fuel companies, and private electricity providers' had blocked Qatar's offer to build three renewable energy power plants to reduce the country's electricity crisis. The country's electricity crisis worsened after its stagnant economy began in October 2019.  

Lebanon: Israeli strike kills two
On 28 May, AP News reported that an Israeli strike targeted a motorcycle driver and hospital in southern Lebanon. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) did not comment on the strike; however, it claimed that it had launched attacks in response to "terrorist launches." Director of the Salah Ghandour Hospital, Jbeil Mohammed Suleiman, asserted that nine civilians were wounded in the strike, the majority of who were "civilians who were in front of the hospital, where family members and people accompanying the patients usually gather."

Yemen: Houthis target ships and US destroyers
On 27 May, Yemen's Houthi rebels asserted that they had launched attacks on three ships, Larego Desert, MSC Mechela and Minerva Lisa, in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean and two US destroyers in the Red Sea. The shipping companies and the US military have not responded. The Houthis military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, did not specify the attack; however, they asserted that the group had used missiles against the ships and drones against the US destroyers.

Iran: Accounts for 74 per cent of total global executions, says Amnesty International
On 29 May, BBC reported that the annual report of Amnesty International has revealed that there has been a 30 per cent increase in the number of executions recorded globally in 2023 as compared to 2022. 1,153 people have been executed so far across 16 countries, a figure that is the highest in eight years. The organization attributed this rise to an increase in the use of the death penalty by some Middle Eastern states, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran alone accounted for 74 per cent of these executions, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 15 per cent. Iran executed Iran put at least 853 last year, 576 in 2022 and 314 in 2021. More than half the executions carried out in 2023 were for drug-related offences. Amnesty International's Secretary General, Agnès Callamard, stated: "The Iranian authorities showed complete disregard for human life and ramped up executions for drug-related offences, further highlighting the discriminatory impact of the death penalty on Iran's most marginalized and impoverished communities."

Iran: Registration for presidential elections begin 
On 30 May, Al Jazeera reported that the official registration process for those interested in running for the office of the President has started. The fourteenth presidential election, which was scheduled to be held in 2025, has now been moved to 28 June due to the death of Former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. The Guardian Council will announce the final list of candidates on 11 June. According to the state media, as quoted in Al Jazeera, "around 30 people" tried to submit their applications for their candidature, but "none of them met the basic conditions for qualification." Among other qualifications, Iran's electoral law mandates that the candidates "be between the ages of 40 and 75" and at least possess a master's degree.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: French Parties compete for seats in the European elections
On 29 May, FRANCE24 reported that 38 French parties were fielding their candidates for the European parliamentary elections on 06-09 June. France, which holds 81 out of the 720 seats, has their far-right National Rally leading the polls with more than 30 per cent, followed by Macron's Renaissance party and the Socialists. The voters will choose from the candidate lists submitted by the country's political parties, and those hoping to gain victory are known as tetes de list (head of the list). The newly elected MEPs or Members of Parliament will join their respective political affiliations based on their ideology. France's Socialists, Greens, and far-right parties would likely join their counterparts from across Europe. The European Parliament now consists of seven active groups.

France: "Ill wind is blowing in Europe, so let us wake up," says Macron
On 27 May, Deutsche Welle reported on French President Emmanuel Macron's speech on his second day in the eastern German city of Dresden. In his speech, he warned against authoritarianism and the growing influence of far-rights over Europe. "Everywhere in our democracies, these ideas thrive, pushed by the extremes, particularly the far right. This ill wind is blowing in Europe, so let us wake up," Macron said. Speaking in German, he also mentioned the ongoing war in Ukraine, indicating that Europe was at a crossroads. He delivered his address at the city's famous Frauenkirche, a church that symbolizes the destruction of World War II and German reunification. To the young people who made up much of the crowd, he emphasized European unity by referring to the German unification at the end of the Cold War. He will wrap up his visit with the last to the western German university city of Münster. He will be awarded the International Peace of Westphalia Prize for his efforts toward 'sustained peace', followed by the joint talks at the Meseberg Place. 

Spain: Parliament approves the Catalan amnesty bill
On 30 May, Spain approved the controversial amnesty bill for Catalan separatists involved in the unsuccessful 2017 secession bid. The Spanish parliamentarians voted in a ratio of 177-172 with a small margin to finally approve amnesty for many separatists who took part in the illegal and unsuccessful bid for the independence of Catalonia from Spain. This means that Carles Puigdemont, former Catalan regional President, can return to Spain without being subject to punishment. The amnesty law was approved by Spain's left-wing coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. He agreed to Amnesty when he received support from the separatist lawmakers in Madrid to form a new national Government in November 2023. This act was strongly contested by the conservative Popular party and far-right Vox, who voted against the bill on 30 May. According to critics, the law could face legal issues from the higher courts. Experts believe this law is unconstitutional because it would favour some Spanish citizens over there. However, it has been vouched for by the Council of Europe and Sanchez. However, the Catalan separatist parties continue their campaign for the independence referendum. Miriam Nogueras of the Junts party said: Today truly is a historic day. Today, there is no forgiveness. Today, a battle has been won over the conflict that has existed for centuries between two nations."

Georgia: Parliament approves the "foreign agents" bill despite President's veto
On 28 May, the Georgian Parliament approved the 'foreign agents' bill, which caused protests across Georgia over restraining media freedom. The move was opposed as it pushed Georgia further from being part of the EU. Eighty-four in the committee were in favour, while four were against. This was an override of the veto by Salome Zourabichvili, President of Georgia, who was observed to be against the Georgian Dream party. Meanwhile, the opposition MPs, who held 150 seats, walked out of the chamber. The EU, the UN, and Ncriticized criticized this bill. The US has already announced a travel ban because of this bill. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said: "It is unfortunate that Georgia leaders are choosing to forego the steps needed to advance Georgia and the western direction that its people want." Meanwhile, the opponents labelled the bill "Russian law" because of the similarity in nature and measure that the Russians implemented.

THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Latin America: 41 million people in coastal areas face climate-related "life-threatening" events, says UN report
On 28 May, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) report noted that 41 million people, or six per cent of the population in coastal areas of the Caribbean and Latin America, are at risk of "life-threatening" weather events that are worsening due to climate change, including floods and storms. Aside from individuals, around 1,450 hospitals necessary for maternal health and family planning are also located in low-elevation coastal areas and thus remain prone to natural hazards. In Aruba, Cayman Islands, Suriname, Bahamas, and Guyana, more than 80 per cent of hospitals are in these areas. Nearly 12 per cent of Ecuador's health care facilities are in these areas, while ten per cent of Haiti's hospitals and seven per cent of Brazil's are also at risk. The UNFPA's Executive Director, Dr Natalia Kanem, pointed out that climate change "impacts women and girls the hardest and exacerbates existing inequalities." Millions of women and girls who are "poor and vulnerable" and are also the "least responsible for the climate crisis pay a heavy price when climate-related disasters strike and disrupt essential health and protection services as well as livelihoods."

Canada: Minister of Immigration announces five-fold increase in visas for Palestinians in Gaza
On 27 May, Canada's Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, announced a five-fold increase in visas for Palestinians in Gaza who wanted to join their families in Canada. Though this would raise the number of visas offered to Gazans as part of a special programme to 5,000, the Canadian government has been unable to help applicants leave the bombarded Palestinian enclave. On behalf of the government, Miller stated: "We remain deeply concerned about the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza. Many people are worried about their loved ones and have expressed significant interest in the temporary special measures we introduced for their extended family in Gaza." He also explained that while the government was trying to help Palestinians attempting to leave Gaza, movement out of that territory was beyond Ottawa's control. However, he maintained that while "movement out of Gaza is not currently possible, the situation may change at any time." This new increase means that the government "will be ready to help more people as the situation evolves."

The US: OpenAI finds five covert influence campaigns from Russia, China, Iran, and Israel
On 30 May, artificial intelligence company OpenAI disclosed that it had disrupted covert influence campaigns stemming from Russia, China, Israel, and Iran after identifying five campaigns containing "deceptive attempts to manipulate public opinion or influence political outcomes without revealing the true identity or intentions of the actors behind them." Using OpenAI's models to generate text and images, the campaign posted this material on social media platforms while using the tools to produce content with "fewer language errors than would have been possible for human operators." After the findings, the company terminated accounts associated with two Russian operations, a Chinese campaign, an Iranian network, and an Israeli operation. On its website, OpenAI expressed commitment to "developing safe and responsible AI" while also "proactively intervening against malicious use."

About the Authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Associate, Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta and Mugdha Chaturvedi are Research Interns at NIAS. 

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