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CWA # 1387
The World This Week
Labour Victory in the UK elections, Rise of the Right France elections, and the Xi Show at the SCO Summit

  GP Team
14 July 2024

The World This Week #270, Vol. 6 No. 24, 14 July 2024

Govind Anoop, Padmashree Anandan, and Lakshmi Karlekar

UK Elections: A Landslide Victory for the Labour Party
Govind Anoop

What happened?
On 05 July 2024, the Labour Party, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, won the UK general elections with 412 out of 650 seats, a vote share of almost 34 per cent, while the Conservative Party in Parliament won 121 seats, a vote share of 23.7 per cent. The election witnessed the lowest voter turnout since 2001 with 60 per cent. 

Starmer was quoted as saying, “This lack of trust can only be healed by actions, not words,” referring to the public’s loss of support for the outgoing Conservative party. He also announced his cabinet ministers which include Rachel Reeves (finance minister), Angela Rayner (deputy prime minister) and David Lammy (foreign minister).

Outgoing PM Rishi Sunak said: “I have given this job my all, but you have sent a clear signal that the government of the United Kingdom must change, and yours is the only judgment that matters. I have heard your anger, your disappointment and I take responsibility for this loss."

What is the background? 
First, a brief on UK’s electoral system. There are multiple parties but the five major ones that have emerged on top include the Labour Party, the Conservative Party, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and the Reform UK.  In the 2019 election, the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson, achieved a decisive victory with 365 seats, securing a robust majority and a mandate to “get Brexit done.” The Labour Party, under Jeremy Corbyn, suffered a significant defeat, dropping to 203 seats and losing many traditional strongholds. The Liberal Democrats, despite high expectations, won only 11 seats, and their leader Jo Swinson lost her seat. The SNP continued its dominance in Scotland, securing 48 out of 59 seats. In the 2024 election, the Conservative Party saw a decline, losing 251 seats. The Liberal Democrats led by Ed Davey and the Green Party increased their representation. The SNP saw a loss in support in Scotland in favour of the Labour while the Conservatives faced the same in Wales.

Second, the major issues in 2024 elections. The Labour concentrated on expanding the number of healthcare employees, developing diagnostic instruments, and boosting mental health services to counter this. They also pledged integrated community health facilities and simpler access to GPs. The Conservative government came under fire for not addressing NHS inefficiencies and cutting waiting times. Further issues include the fallouts from Brexit which included the housing crisis and living expenses where voters expressed frustration about the ongoing lack of affordable housing, which has caused rents to skyrocket and the number of homeless people to rise. In contrast to the Conservatives, who pledged to create 1.6 million homes but were received with scepticism from previous unfulfilled promises, the Labour Party committed to building 1.5 million homes, with a concentration on social housing. 

Third, the decline of the Conservative Party. The party had a sharp downturn in popularity in the public as a result of mounting discontent about how they handled important issues like the consequences of Brexit such as the housing crisis, and living expenses, the failing NHS and ineffective actions on immigration. The administration of Rishi Sunak came under fire for not delivering on its promises of inexpensive homes and better healthcare. Further, the failures of former Conservative Prime Ministers such as Liz Truss, Theresa May and Boris Johnson to uphold their promises as well has resulted in a change in public opinion and caused the significant loss of Conservative seats. 

What does it mean?
First, the Labour Party’s landslide win gives the party the freedom to push for their policies in the Parliament more comfortably and with their promises to provide affordable homes, overhaul the NHS, and enhance the economic situation to be constantly monitored by both the Opposition and the public. 

Second, the Labour Party will have to deal with the country’s economic problems, as over 30 per cent of the UK’s aid budget continues to be spent on refugee housing costs. The Labour has also promised to adopt policies which emphasised global leadership through the Global South, which comes in contrast with the Tories “UK First” strategy. This could be significant, with the new European Commission leaning Right and Trump’s promises if he wins the US elections. However, the UK has seen a cycle of long tenures involving both Labour and Conservative parties and the Conservative party looks to regroup and win back the support of the public.

France Elections: Far-right win provokes political chaos
Padmashree Anandhan

What happened?
On 07 July, second round of legislative elections were held. This will determine the composition of the major three left-wing, together and far-right parties and their seats in the total 577 of the National Assembly. In the past week, more than 200 centrist candidates have withdrawn improving the chances of moderate and far-right to win. The higher turnout in the elections also gives a higher chance for the far-right to win the with single majority. On loss of majority Emmanuel Macron, France’s Presidents will be forced to share power under the cohabitation system undermining his parties power in the domestic and foreign policy level. 

On 30 June, in the held first round of parliamentary elections, Rassemblement National (RN) won the first round with 34 per cent of votes. It positioned first superseding left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) which won 28.1 per cent, Macron Ensemble alliance’s 21 per cent and Les Républicains along with its partner who got 10 per cent. RN is expected to secure 230 seats out of 280 in the National Assembly after the first round.

On 30 June, following the win in the first round Marine Le Pen, head of RN said: “The French have shown their willingness to turn the page on a contemptuous and corrosive power.” Far-left leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon said: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.” Whereas France’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.. Not one single vote must go to the National Rally.”

What is the background?
First, trigger to the legislative elections. The 10th European Parliament elections vote held during June in France allowed voters to choose 81 members to represent in the European Parliament out of the total 720 seats in the latest legislature. From France there were 3,078 candidates battling for 81 seats in the European Parliament. The elections delivered a substantial victory for the RN (31.4 per cent), followed by Macron's Besoin d'Europe alliance (14.6 per cent) and the centre-left Réveiller l'Europe alliance (13.8 per cent). As a consequence, the French President, Emmanuel Macron announced to dissolve the National Assembly, triggering early legislative elections. Although the questions remain on whether the far-right led by Marine Le Pen would gain enough seats to win by single majority to control the lower house of the National Assembly.

Second, key issues in the legislative elections. Major three groups which are participating are Macron’s Ensemble alliance, left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and far-right RN stood for a variety of issues. However, social, economic, and immigration issues remain the key amongst the voters. This includes social security, wealth inequality and lack of growth. 

Third, rise of the right. The RN emerged as winner for the first time in 2023 but its foundation was laid in 1972 when Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie Le Pen formed the party. Jean-Marie was known for his “anti-semitic and racist” stance and joining extreme right-wing groups. After him, Marine Le Pen took charge in 2011 working sturdy with promises to make it more democratic. Later removed her father from the party and has maintained “France for the French”, or “national preference” as the essential doctrine of the party. Despite her pledges, the party remains radical in favour of Kremlin, anti-immigrant stance and with anti-sceptic views towards the EU. The election results at the out front may seem as underwhelming vote share of the RN but compared to the previous years, it the highest record. 

What does this mean?
First, weaking of Macron’s party. Following the win of RN, Bardella’s appointment as a Prime Minster would weaken Macron’s hold at domestic and foreign policy level. This power sharing system “Cohabitation” is expected to take a toll on Macron party’s control in domestic policies including immigration, giving additional powers to Police, reduction of rights of French citizens who hold dual citizenship in employment. 

Second, political impasse. Macron’s call for snap elections also helped in bringing the cracked left together who were placed second in the runoff but its trajectory remains to polarise the votes than securing a majority. While Macron’s party forming coalition with the left is far away from possibility, the likeliest option is a hung government without a governing coalition. 

The SCO Summit: Four Major Takeaways
Lakshmi Karlekar

On 04 July 2024, in Astana, Kazakhstan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State. “Strengthening Multilateral Dialogue—Striking Towards a Sustainable Peace and Prosperity” was the theme . Belarus joined the SCO as its tenth member. At Astana, sixteen leaders participated in the 24th Summit. The Summit is considered a historic occasion, tackling important issues in the region and giving Astana a chance to promote communication and diplomacy. 

On 04 July, the leaders adopted the Astana Declaration and approved twenty-five strategic documents about energy, trade, finance, and information security. In the declaration, the member nations emphasised the SCO's contribution to maintaining international peace, security, and stability and forming a new, just, democratic international political and economic order. 

The Council of Heads of State also approved the SCO Development Strategy through 2035. It outlines important resolutions, including the Anti-Drug Strategy for the next five years and its Action Program and Cooperation Programs to combat extremism, separatism, and terrorism for 2025–2027. The Action Plan for the Economic Development Strategy through 2030 and strategies for energy cooperation were approved. Resolutions also covered the Association of Investors, initiatives to foster ecotourism and protected area collaboration, and methods for funding SCO project operations. 

1. China's Anti-Western Narrative 
The Xi Jinping administration promoted the de-dollarisation initiative at the current SCO 2024 summit. Its rival Russia followed suit to find a substitute for the US dollar and started negotiations with member nations. Russia prefers trade partners use the Chinese yuan or Russian ruble instead of US dollars to settle oil payments. 

In addition, Xi and Tokayev encouraged collaboration, describing the China-Kazakhstan partnership as “unique” since it serves as a model of cooperation, mutual gain, and success. Their talks centre on infrastructure development under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), trade and investment, and cross-cultural and interpersonal interactions. This, in turn, threatens the West with the formation of a formidable bloc.  

2. Xi and Putin set ambitions for the Eurasian security club
Putin said: “The organization has firmly established itself as one of the key pillars of a fair, multipolar world order.” In response to an “ever-changing international situation,” Xi told Putin that China and Russia should: “uphold the original aspiration of friendship for generations.”

To replace the antiquated Eurocentric and Euro-Atlantic models, which granted unilateral advantages only to specific states, President Putin restated Russia's demand for “a new architecture of cooperation, indivisible security, and development in Eurasia.” However, he referred to the United States when he stated that the goal should be to remove all foreign military presence from Eurasia gradually.

With this statement, a new cargo shipment departed from the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. The Middle Corridor, as it is also called, begins in China and Southeast Asia and travels through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and on to Europe. Xi and Putin pushed it as a land transit between Asia and Europe.

3. India's ‘Secure’ Vision 
India has not wavered in its commitment to uploading Narendra Modi's “Secure” SCO vision. Security, connectivity, economic cooperation, unity, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, and environmental protection are all represented by the acronym “Secure”. 

When meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasised the importance of “complete disengagement” of troops and reestablishing peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The two ministers decided to move quickly to address any outstanding issues in Eastern Ladakh through military and diplomatic means.

The ‘Make in India’ initiative was also emphasised because of its potential to be a major driver of global economic growth. India stated it was willing to collaborate on capacity building and economic development with other countries, especially in the Global South.

Further, it called on the international community to take action against nations that support and harbour terrorists. In addition to highlighting the importance of combating cross-border terrorism, Jaishankar noted that India has taken the initiative to strengthen its security-related cooperation within the framework of SCO, notably through the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS).

4. Pakistan's Derailed Neighbourhood Policy 
The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, brought up the subject of terrorism as a top priority for the member states. Shehbaz Sharif also advocated for “meaningful” communication with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Prime Minister emphasised Pakistan's strategic position as the “ideal trade conduit” when speaking about the country's contribution to regional trade connectivity. He also noted that, in contrast to India's position, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) advances the “SCO's vision of regional connectivity and economic interaction.”

With the conclusion of the Summit, the People's Republic of China will take over as SCO chairman for the upcoming term, and Qingdao will be named the organisation's tourism and cultural capital for 2024–2025. 

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith, Sayeka Ghosh, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Ayan Datta, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Shilpa Joseph, Neha Tresa George, Sanjay Manivanan, Ken B Varghese

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Includes Tesla cars in the provincial procurement list for the first time
On 04 July, Global Times reported that despite the immense pressure from the US and the EU on China's new-energy vehicles (NEV), China continues to adhere to its opening-up policy which recently included Tesla cars in East China’s Jiangsu provincial government’s procurement list for the first time, Tesla has also confirmed the move by the Chinese government. The framework agreement for the NEV procurement by the Jiangsu provincial government department was made public with the Tesla Model Y included in its purchase list. This also marks the first time Tesla has been included in a provincial government procurement directory. This is also seen on the Jiangsu government’s website.

China: Marks a significant milestone as it launches its G15 gas turbine
On 04 July, China reached a significant milestone in its gas turbine manufacturing capacity as its first domestically developed 15 MW gas turbine, the G15 rolled off the assembly line. This would further expand China’s homegrown gas turbine line-up and optimise the country’s structure. The new turbine unit is characterised by higher power density and efficiency but low emissions, poised to reduce carbon emissions by 150,000 tonnes per year and generate enough electricity to meet the daily needs of 2500 households. The big breakthrough came amid China’s ongoing efforts of a widespread industrial upgrade and high-speed energy transition. Observers have said that the gas turbine can have diverse applications in different sectors like energy, aerospace, industrial manufacturing, and marine engineering.

China: Xi-Putin reunites on the sidelines of the SCO meeting
On 03 July, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the 24th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Xi expressed that Sino-Russian relations should continue to converse their unique value. The Chinese flagship newspaper Xinhua reported that Xi believes that as they face international turbulence and changes, the two countries should affirm their lasting friendship and uphold them. While doing so they should safeguard their legitimate rights and interests to ensure their norms of governance. The two leaders last time met in May, since the war and the sanctions both country's leaders have had frequented visits. The focus of this SCO meeting would be on counter-terrorism measures and cooperation amongst the SCO members, as they aim to take joint combative action against terrorism.

China: The US Department of Homeland Security deports more than 100 Chinese migrants, reports The Guardian
On 03 July, The Guardian reported that the US Department of Homeland Security said that the US deported 116 Chinese migrants in its first-ever large charter flight in five years. The weekend flight came amid rising political debates ahead of the forthcoming US Presidential election over the issue of Chinese Migration. The department said that it was working with China to reduce and deter irregular migration and disrupt illicit human smuggling through its expanded law enforcement efforts. The department added that it is working with Chinese officials and will be working out more of such flights. However, there has been no fixed date given by the department regarding the next flights.

EAST ASIA & THE PACIFIC THIS WEEK
Japan: H3 rocket completes its second successful launch
On 01 July, The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) successfully put an advanced observation satellite into orbit via its new flagship H3 rocket. The H3 rocket completed its third successful launch. It carried the Daichi-4 satellite also known as the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-4 which was jointly developed by JAXA and Mitsubishi Electric. The rocket followed the trajectory and separated into two stages. The satellite was successfully released into orbit. Prime Minister Kishida took to social media and praised the successful launch and wrote “respect for all the efforts of all involved parties and hopes for the advancement of Japan’s Space Program.” JAXA head Hiroshi Yamakawa commented on this launch: “I feel a great sense of relief, noting a steady progress.”

South Korea: President Yoon called for trilateral cooperation with US and Japan to address global challenges
On 28 June, at the 10th annual peace forum co-hosted by Yonhap News Agency and the Unification Ministry, President Yoon Suk Yeol underscored South Korea's commitment to strengthening ties with the US and Japan. In a message delivered on his behalf, Yoon pledged to: “wisely overcome North Korea's provocations and the global polycrisis” through enhanced trilateral cooperation. The President highlighted recent diplomatic achievements, including the restoration of the South Korea-US alliance and the normalisation of relations with Japan. He emphasised the significance of the Camp David summit in August, which opened a “new horizon” in trilateral security and economic cooperation. Yoon stated: “We will further strengthen the institutional foundation and cooperation of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system.” He also expressed South Korea's intention to play a “responsible role for peace and prosperity” globally, aligning with his vision of the country as a “global pivotal state.”

Vanuatu and Solomon Islands: China strengthens ties with Pacific Island nations through Prime Ministerial visits
On 05 July, China is set to host the Prime Ministers of Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, signalling a deepening of diplomatic relations with Pacific island nations. China's Foreign Ministry announced that these visits aim to enhance strategic communication and expand cooperation. Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai will visit from 07 to 12 July, marking 42 years of diplomatic ties. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele's visit from 09 to 15 July represents his first official trip to China since taking office in May. A professor at East China Normal University Chen Hong noted that China-Solomon Islands relations exemplify successful South-South cooperation. He emphasised that despite Western criticism: “ultimately the people of these countries have the greatest say in the matter” The visits are expected to focus on infrastructure development, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. Chen observed: “There is great potential for further cooperation between China and Pacific island countries.”

SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Sri Lanka: Former President Rajapaksa visits China
On 02 July, former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing. They discussed mutual interests and upcoming development initiatives. Rajapaksa expressed his happiness meeting President Xi and stressed the importance of international collaboration for global peace. At the invitation of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Rajapaksa met with several high-ranking Chinese officials during his four-day visit.

Nepal: New government set to form as CPN-UML withdraws support from the coalition
On 02 July, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) reached an agreement with the Nepali Congress (NC) to form a government with 88 and 79 seats respectively in the Parliament. This move is to oust Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aiming to make constitutional amendments. Nothing CPN-UML and NC have called on the Prime Minister to resign and “pave the way” for the formation of the new government. The Prime Minister has responded and said that he will not resign and will aim at seeking a vote of confidence. This will be his fifth vote of confidence in 18 months.

Pakistan: Pakistan expected to clinch IMF deal this month
On 04 July, Dawn reported that Pakistan is expected to clinch an IMF deal worth more than USD 6 billion this month having considered and met all of the conditions put forth by the international lending agency. To fulfill demands set by the IMF the government has set “challenging revenue targets in its annual budget.” In this regard, the Minister of State for Finance, Revenue and Power, Ali Pervaiz Malik stated: “We hope to culminate this (IMF) process in the next three to four weeks.” He further stated: “There are no major issues left to address, now that all major prior actions have been met, the budget being one of them.” The government has set a tax revenue target of PKR 13 trillion for the current fiscal which is a 40 per cent increase from the previous fiscal. Similarly, the fiscal deficit target has been fixed at 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product which is a significant drop from the 7.4 per cent target of the previous year. Malik conceded that these targets have made the budget “unpopular” and would prove to be “burdensome for the local economy.”

Pakistan: Afghan Taliban delegation meets Pak officials on sidelines of Doha-III conference
On 03 July, The News International reported that an Afghan Taliban delegation led by Afghan interim government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid met with Pakistani diplomats on the sidelines of the Doha III conference. The Pakistani Ambassador to Qatar, Muhammad Aejaz, hosted a dinner for the Afghan Taliban delegation which was also attended by senior diplomats including Pakistan’s Special Representative on Afghanistan Asif Durrani and the country’s Deputy Head of Mission in Kabul Ubaid Ur Rehman Nizamani. Durrani said that both sides discussed developments at the conference along with “bilateral and regional issues.” Aejaz also took to X to state that both countries: “remain neighbours and brothers and have a lot in common, including a strong desire for regional peace and security.” As per diplomatic sources, it was an “unusual meeting,” though the Afghan interim government thanked Islamabad for supporting Kabul’s stance in the conference. 

Pakistan: India and Pakistan exchange list of prisoners
On 02 July, India and Pakistan, through a diplomatic channel, exchanged lists of prisoners that each have in their custody. According to a press release by the Foreign Office, these lists are exchanged every year on 01 January and 01 July by the Consular Access Agreement of 2008. The list shared by Pakistan revealed that there are “254 Indian or believed-to-be-Indian civilian prisoners and fishermen in Pakistani jails.” The list shared by India revealed that there are “452 Pakistani or believed-to-be-Pakistani civilian prisoners and fishermen in Indian jails.” Further, a list containing 38 Pakistani defence personnel who are missing and thought to be in Indian custody since the wars of 1965 and 1971 was also shared by India. Pakistan has called for “immediate release and repatriation of all Pakistani prisoners” who have served and finished their sentences in India. It has also sought consular access to those physically and mentally challenged in Indian custody believed to be Pakistani nationals to ascertain their nationality. Pakistan has “urged” India to ensure “the safety, security, and well-being of all Pakistani or believed-to-be-Pakistani prisoners.” Due to the government’s efforts, 62 Pakistani prisoners were released in 2023 and 4 have been released in the current year so far. 

Pakistan: Election Act Amendment Bill, 2024, passed in NA with majority amid opposition protests
On 28 June, amid opposition protests, the National Assembly (NA) passed the ‘Election Act Amendment Bill, 2024’ with a majority vote. Federal Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar, who tabled it for approval, said that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has the authority to form the election tribunal as per the Constitution, and retired judges could be appointed to the tribunals along with serving ones, to hear complaints regarding the polls. Tarar detailed that the parliament was supreme and thus had the authority to formulate any necessary legislation and that this amendment was aimed at decreasing the workload on serving judges by restoring the original provision of Section 140. The Leader of the Opposition, Omar Ayub, and PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan challenged the move and claimed that the PPP and PML-N had made a change to appoint serving judges to the tribunals during a meeting with the electoral amendment committee. Despite this, the NA passed the bill.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: 63 Knesset members sign letter opposing Palestinian statehood before Netanyahu’s Washington visit
On 04 July, according to The Jerusalem Post, 63 out of 120 Members of the Knesset (MKs) signed a letter to the Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana to hold a debate and, after a vote, issue a declaration stating that: “The Israeli Knesset categorically opposes founding a Palestinian state west of the Jordan” river because “Founding a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will be an existential threat to the state of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and destabilise the region.” The letter added that if a Palestinian state were founded: “it will only be a short matter of time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a base of radical Islamic terror, acting in coordination with the axis led by Iran, in order to wipe out the state of Israel.” The signatories included MKs from the ruling Likud and multiple opposition parties. They stated that the letter intended to support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before he addressed the US Congress against “dangerous attempts by those states who wish to give a backwind to terror, in the form of a Palestinian terror state in the heart of the Land of Israel.” 

Israel: Economic crisis possible because of war against Hamas
On 02 July, according to The Times of Israel, the Jewish State was facing the possibility of an economic crisis because of the war against Hamas. In money markets, the Israeli Shekel traded with Western currencies at pre-war rates. According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, the Gross Domestic Product increased during January-March 2024 compared to October-December 2023, when the war against Hamas began. However, the GDP during October-December decreased compared to previous quarters by 1.3 per cent. During the same period, Israel’s exports fell by 18 per cent and fell again by during January-March 2024 by 5.5 per cent. The GDP also grew by a lower percentage than the population growth rate, indicating a decline in quality of life.    

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Kenya: Ruto debates anti-government protestors via X Spaces 
On 05 July, according to BBC, Kenya’s President Ruto engaged in a live audio debate on Twitter Spaces with anti-government protesters. The interaction was moderated by Osama Otero, an outspoken online government critic. Otero asked Ruto multiple questions, including if Kenya was a “terrorist nation,” referring to police shootings of protestors last week and whether Ruto tried to reach out to the families of the victims killed or injured by police action. The Space had a peak participation of 163,000. 

Kenya: Ruto to borrow 1 trillion shillings after scrapping finance bill
On 01 July, according to BBC, Kenya’s President William Ruto stated that the country would have to borrow one trillion shillings ( USD 7.6 billion) “to be able to run our government” because of protests against the now-scrapped finance bill. The bill had promised tax increases, which were unpopular and led to massive protests. Ruto said that since the money could not be raised from taxes, the government would have to increase borrowings by 67 per cent. In the finance bill, extra taxes would raise around 350 billion Kenyan shillings, and around 600 billion would be borrowed. However, now the whole amount would have to be borrowed. 

Kenya: Independent Policing Oversight Authority investigating shooting of protesters
On 29 June, according to BBC, Kenya’s Independent Policing Oversight Authority began investigating allegations that officers killed protesters outside the country's Parliament and in central Nairobi’s Githurai. Kenya’s National Commission on Human Rights said it: “received unverified reports of scores of residents who were killed by the stray bullets.” Law Society of Kenya President Faith Odhiambo called for an international investigation into the “massacre” at Githurai. 

Nigeria: Nigeria wins bid to headquarters African Energy Bank
On 04 July, Reuters reported that Nigeria won the bid to be the headquarters of the newly formed Africa Energy bank. The country’s Minister of State Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, stated that the African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO) decided following a meeting of their Council of Ministers. The African Energy Bank was a partnership between Afrexim Bank and APPO and would fund energy projects in Africa to invest in oil and gas projects in Africa. 

Sierra Leone: First Lady organises ceremony celebrating new bill banning child marriage
On 03 July, according to BBC, Sierra Leone’s First Lady Fatima Bio organised a ceremony in the country’s capital, Freetown, celebrating a new law banning child marriage. The law prohibited the marriage of girls below the age of 18 and set a punishment of 15 years imprisonment or a USD 4000 fine, or both, for offenders. Under the new law, the groom, the bride's parents and guardians, and wedding attendees were liable to face punishment. Bio said that child marriage was similar to: “talking away a child’s dream and destroy(ing) them even before they know who they are.” President Julius Maada Bio stated that his: “motivation and commitment to empowering women and girls is firmly rooted in my personal life journey.”

Egypt: Cabinet reshuffled; new foreign, finance, and supplies ministers named
On 02 July, Reuters reported that Egypt’s cabinet would be reshuffled. The foreign, finance, petroleum, electricity and supply ministers would be changed. Egypt’s Ambassador to the European Union Badr Abdelatty would replace Sameh Shoukry as Minister of Foreign Affairs. Ahmed Kouchuk, deputy of former Minister of Finance Mohammed Maait, would take the latter’s position. Former chairman of Egypt Post Sherif Farouk would replace Ali Moselhy as Minister of Supplies. The Ministries of Electricity and Petroleum would also have new Ministers but did not announce their replacements.

Mauritania: Elections to be held 29 June; slavery, migration, corruption and jihadists are major issues
On 29 June, BBC reported that Mauritania would hold presidential elections on the same say. The country faced multiple issues, including slavery, migration, corruption and jihadists. Mauritania was the world’s last country to make slavery illegal in 1981. However, according to the Global Slavery Index (GSI), around 149,000 Mauritanians were still enslaved. Migration was another issue for Mauritania’s electorate. The country was a transit point for West African migrants heading to Europe. Corruption was a critical problem for the people, with former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz being jailed for embezzlement and illegally enriching himself. Since Mauritania is located in the Sahel region, jihadists were another problem for it. However, because of President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani’s military background, the problem was tackled well recently.

South Africa: Ramaphosa appoints cabinet of national unity government 
On 30 June, Reuters reported that South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the cabinet of his national unity government. Ramaphosa included the former opposition leader and head of the Democratic Alliance (DA) party, John Steenhuisen, as Minister of Agriculture. ANC leaders Enoch Gondohgwana and Gwede Matashe were retained as Ministers of Finance and Mineral and Petroleum Resources. At the same time, Ronald Lamola was appointed the new Minister of International Relations and Cooperation. However, Ramaphosa removed the Ministry of Energy from Matashe’s portfolio and placed it under Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramaskopa.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Turkey: Erdogan meets Putin at Shanghai Cooperation Summit
On 03 July, according to Middle East Monitor, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit. Putin said that the two countries were implementing projects in strategic sectors like nuclear power. He added: “There was a drop in trade volume within the past few months, but our annual trade volume is USD 55 billion. We are implementing our projects in a planned way. We will discuss our future goals (to improve relations). We are in close contact.”

Turkey: Ongoing talks with US for nuclear power plants to counter Russia
On 02 July, according to Reuters, Turkey was holding talks with the US for constructing large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors. The US Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, said the move aimed at lessening Turkey’s dependency on Russia. Russia’s Rosatom was constructing Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in the Akkuyu region. However, Turkish official Yusuf Ceylan stated: “The USA is showing serious interest in Turkey's goal of increasing its nuclear energy capacity and building new power plants…we are negotiating with the USA for both large-scale power plants and small modular reactors. This is a statement of intent.” 

Turkey: Istanbul police detain 15 people for holding LGBT pride rally
On 30 June, according to Reuters, Turkey’s police detained around 15 protesters in Istanbul for participating in an LGBT pride rally. The Istanbul Governor’s Officers labelled the organisations calling for the rally as illegal and refused permission for it. After the LGBT groups were organised in another part of Istanbul, police officers searched the streets and detained the demonstrators

Ukraine: Ukraine receives aid from the IMF
On 03 July, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Deny Shmyhal confirmed receiving two billion as aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This would be the fifth payment instalment as part of the continuing loan program, which amounts to EUR 15 billion and is scheduled to be given across four years. The government will use this fund for its expenditures over welfare, and wages to doctors and teachers.

Ukraine: The US and Ukraine hold talks to discuss defence partnership
On 02 July,  Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov reported on holding talks with US Defence Minister Llyod Austin. In the meeting, both discussed military cooperation, security issues and a way to strengthen the defence partnership between the US and Ukraine. The move follows Zelenskyy’s reiteration for more weapons and Russia’s strike on the Zaporizhzhia oblast which killed seven. Till now the US has been the biggest aider for Ukraine accounting for USD 50 billion military aid since 2022.

The Netherlands: Prime Minister vows to continue financial and military aid to Ukraine
On 03 July, The Netherlands Prime Minister Dick Schoof pledged to continue his support for Ukraine financially and militarily. He said: “Ukraine can continue to count on the Netherlands for financial, military and political support.”  The independent candidate who succeeded outgoing Mark Rutte, Prime Minister, assured support at all levels and for the long term. During Rutte’s tenure, the Netherlands signed a deal for EUR two billion as military assistance for Ukraine which will be given over 10 years and later added another EUR one billion. The Netherlands will also be one of the key parties pushing for the supply of F-16s to boost Ukraine’s air defences.

AMERICA THIS WEEK
Peru: Congress passes law introducing statute of limitations for crimes against humanity
On 04 July, Peru’s Congress passed a law introducing a statute of limitations for crimes against humanity, amid opposition from human rights organisations who have contended that this would hinder ongoing investigations into abuses. The 15-12 vote in the Congress’ permanent commission came after the legislature approved the law in June with a 60-36 vote, with 11 abstentions. A congressman for the Popular Force (FP) party, Fernando Rospigliosi, argued: “There are military and police officers aged 80, 85 and 90 who are unjustly imprisoned and others who are unjustly prosecuted for an undue application of crimes against humanity.” Before the vote, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights called on Peru to annul or block the law, an action that was termed as interference by the government of Peru’s President Dina Boluarte. Other rights groups have explained that the law could cut short multiple investigations into human rights abuses before 2003, which is when clashes between security forces and rebel groups resulted in 69,000 dead or missing.
 
Venezuela: President Maduro says “urgent” dialogue will be held with the US
On 01 July, the President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro announced that his government would resume talks with the US government that week, ahead of Venezuelan elections in which Maduro’s party is facing its toughest challenge yet. Over the last decade, the US imposed economic sanctions on Venezuela to topple Maduro, who said that talks will restart with the US: “government to comply with the agreements signed in Qatar and to reestablish the terms of the urgent dialogue.” Though Maduro’s government had earlier held dialogues with the administration of US President Joe Biden, they were later suspended as he went back on promises such as improving conditions ahead of elections.

The US: “I might quit if the ‘Lord Almighty’ tells me to,” says President Biden on dropping out of elections
On 05 July, during an interview with ABC News, US President Joe Biden said his debate against Donald Trump was a “bad episode,” and asserted that he would be running in the presidential election. He explained that he has “a cognitive test every single day,” and blamed his performance on a “really bad cold.” To a question of whether he would drop out if other Democrats said he was hurting their re-election chances, Biden stated: “If the Lord Almighty comes out and tells me that, I might do that.” As per a Reuters/Ipsos poll, one in three Democrats want Biden to quit.
 
The US: SC ruling gives Donald Trump immunity for official acts
On 05 July, the US Supreme Court (SC) recognised for the first time in a six-three ruling that former presidents have immunity from prosecution for certain actions taken in office, stating that former presidents have immunity for actions within their constitutional authority but not in a private capacity. This decision will enhance Donald Trump’s defence against federal charges over his efforts to overturn the 2020 vote, and could also affect state-level election interference charges in Georgia. Welcoming the ruling, Trump stated: “Big win for our constitution and democracy. Proud to be an American.” The conservative SC justices stated that allowing the prosecution of former presidents over their official acts in office would lead to political retribution and despotism. They acknowledged that while the “President is not above the law,” the Congress “may not criminalise the President’s conduct in carrying out the responsibilities of the Executive Branch under the Constitution.” Three of the six judges were appointed by Trump. 

About the authors
Lakshmi Karlekar is a PhD Scholar at Christ University, Bangalore. Govind Anoop is an Undergraduate Student at St Joseph's University Bangalore. Padmashree Ananadhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Vetriselvi Baskaran, and Dhriti Mukherjee are Research Assistants at NIAS. Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Sachin Aravind are Research Interns at NIAS.

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