The World This Week

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CWA # 1399, 21 July 2024
The World This Week
Political Instability in Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh

  GP Team

The World This Week #271, Vol.6, No.25, 21 July 2024
 

Dhriti Mukherjee, Mahesh Batt and Ayan Datta

Pakistan: The decision to ban PTI
Dhriti Mukherjee

What happened?
On 15 July, the government of Pakistan, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) announced its decision to ban the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and seek Article 6 proceedings against the PTI’s founder Imran Khan, former President Dr Arif Alvi, and former National Assembly (NA) deputy speaker Qasim Suri. Article 6 of the constitution corresponds to high treason. Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar cited the “foreign funding case, 9 May riots, and the cipher episode as well as the resolution passed in the US” as reasons behind the ban. On the social media platform X, the PTI said that the decision would be “tantamount to uprooting the foundations of Pakistan and sending the country towards civil war.”

Following the announcement, the PML-N struggled to find strong support even from its allies, including its strongest coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The PPP clarified it had not been consulted on the matter; however, party senators warned that the decision could lead to political turmoil. Similar sentiments were voiced by other parties. An editorial in The News International stated that banning a party because it could not be defeated on ground “is not just vindictive but also patently self-defeating as a strategy.” Another editorial in Dawn said the government appeared “desperate and intimidated.” The decision was also criticised by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and the US State Department.

What is the background?
First, the Supreme Court’s decision on the PTI. On 12 July, an SC bench in a majority decision declared the PTI eligible to receive its share of reserved seats for women and non-Muslims in the NA and provincial assemblies, according to the number of general seats secured. All 13 members also declared it to be a parliamentary party. The decision set aside the 01 March Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decision and the 25 March Peshawar High Court (PHC) decision to deny reserved seats to the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) as “ultra vires of the Constitution.” Both the earlier decisions had denied the SIC and PTI-backed independents of reserved seats for failing to submit a “party list for reserved seats,” resulting in the seats being distributed among other parties. An editorial in Dawn stated that the SC undid a “historic injustice” by upholding that a denial of a symbol to a party does not affect its rights to function as a political entity. 

Second, the PTI emerging as the largest party in the NA. Following the implementation of the latest SC ruling, the PTI will become the largest party in the NA. After it gets its share of 22 reserved seats, the number of PTI lawmakers in the NA, including those who joined the SIC, will go from 92 to 114. The opposition’s total strength will surge from 103 to 125 after seats given to other political parties is added to the PTI’s. As a result, the ruling PML-N led coalition will lose its two-thirds majority in the house, which is a requirement for constitutional amendments. 

Third, the PML-N and PPP government’s efforts to keep the PTI down. The decision to ban the PTI is the latest in efforts taken by the PML-N and the PPP to try and suppress the PTI. According to the PTI, it was not given a “level playing field” during the elections, as multiple measures were taken to allegedly keep the party away from the polls. On 13 January, less than a month before the general elections, the SC set aside the PHC order that reinstated the “bat” as the PTI’s electoral symbol, forcing PTI candidates to contest as independents. It also deprived the party of its right to nominate members on reserved seats. The party then alleged widespread rigging during the polling process and irregularities in the results. Leaders accused the government of overwriting and changing form. In multiple places where PTI-backed independents were declared winners, the notification was withdrawn within a matter of hours, and a candidate from a party currently part of the coalition was declared as the winner. Additionally, the party has been complaining of hasty verdicts and unfair trials with regard to Khan.

What does this mean?
First, a stronger opposition. The PML-N led coalition will now face a stronger opposition, as the PTI can solidify its position in various legislatures. After being treated as a “defunct entity with seemingly no political rights,” the PTI has a stronger voice in the NA, and any constitutional amendments or laws that the ruling coalition thought of passing smoothly will now require the PTI’s support.

Second, political instability. If the PML-N goes ahead with its decision to try and ban the PTI, the ensuing political reactions could cause instability in a country that is already facing a range of economic challenges. Though the SC is unlikely to approve the ban, the announcement itself has already been viewed as a suppression of democracy. 

Nepal: Another government change
Mahesh Bhatta

What happened? 
On 15 July 2024, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), K.P. Sharma Oli was sworn in as Nepal's prime minister, after Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML reached a seven-point deal to topple CPN- Maoist Centre’s chairman Prachanda-led coalition. Newly appointed Prime Minister also formed a 22 member Cabinet, including two deputy prime ministers. This newly formed government is regarded as one of the strongest, given the coalition's substantial majority in Parliament. Additionally, the distribution of ministerial positions has been agreed upon, with both parties in the coalition expressing satisfaction with the arrangements. This government aims to bring political and economic stability to a country in dire need of attracting investors and generating employment. Since abolishing its 240 year old monarchy in 2008, Nepal has faced continuous political instability. Oli's new administration is the 14th government since then, with Oli himself serving his fourth term as prime minister.

On 21 July, 2024, lawmakers in Nepal's Parliament voted on a confidence motion submitted by the newly appointed Prime Minister Oli, nearly a week after his swearing-in to lead another coalition government. According to Article 76 (4) of Nepal’s constitution, PM Oli had a month to take the vote of confidence, but he chose to seek the trust vote within a week of his appointment. In the 275-member House of Representatives, Prime Minister Oli secured a two-thirds majority in the trust vote. Out of 263 lawmakers present during the floor test, he received 188 votes, surpassing the two-thirds majority requirement by four votes. Meanwhile, 74 lawmakers voted against him and one lawmaker remained neutral. Prime Minister Oli along with his coalition partners also secured the support of the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, Janamat Party, and Nagarik Unmukti Party during the trust vote. Conversely, opposition parties including the CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Rashtriya Swotantra Party (RSP), and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, among others, voted against Oli.

What is the background?
First, an unstable power distribution.  In the aftermath of the November 2022 elections, the third largest party in the House of Representatives, Maoist-Centre holding 32 seats, led the government under Prime Minister Prachanda  with the backing of the second largest party, the CPN-UML, while the largest party- Nepali Congress with 57 seats, remained in the opposition.

Second, the fall of Prachanda government. On 12 July, 2024, Prachanda, the chairman of the CPN- Maoist Centre lost his vote of confidence in one and a half years since he was elected Prime Minister in December 2022, leading to the fall of his government. Of the 258 parliamentarians present in the 275-member Parliament, 63 voted in favour of Prachanda, while 194 voted against. One lawmaker abstained. The CPN-UML withdrew its support from Prachanda’s CPN-Maoist Center and formed a new alliance with the Nepali Congress, the largest party in parliament. The NC and CPN-UML claimed that they needed to unite to form a new government to establish political stability, amend the Constitution, address the people's concerns, and strengthen the economy. 

Third, continuing political instability. In a dramatic political development, Nepal's two largest parties, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, struck a midnight power-sharing deal to form a new 'national consensus government,' replacing the coalition government led by PM Prachanda. The opposition and some political analysts cast doubt on the move, accusing the NC and CPN-UML of forming the new alliance after the Prachanda-led government began investigating corruption cases allegedly involving high-ranking leaders from both the parties. Ravi Lamichhane, president of RSP, who was also the deputy PM and Home Minister in the previous Prachanda-led government and initiated these corruption investigations, stated that the new alliance aims to protect corrupt leaders rather than uphold the Constitution and maintain political stability. In 2023, Nepal was rocked by several major scams, including a fake Bhutanese refugee scam involving numerous high-ranking politicians, the Lalita Niwas scam related to the sale of government-owned land and involving two former prime ministers, and multiple gold smuggling scandals involving prominent figures such as a former HoR Speaker and the family members of a former vice president of Nepal. 

What does it mean?
Political instability has remained a constant in Nepal, where alliances among political parties frequently form and dissolve based on vested interests rather than shared ideology. The pattern of coalition governments being rapidly formed and overthrown has become a blatant aspect of Nepali politics. Governments are created and changed without any substantial policy agreements or moral and social bonds. Due to this lack of ethical commitment, party leaders can make decisions without hesitation. Consequently, the new alliance between the CPN-UML and the NC is viewed with skepticism, as it appears to be driven by self-serving interests rather than a genuine commitment to national progress and stability.

Despite widespread skepticism, the newly formed government has a prime opportunity to justify its formation and prove its critics wrong, as well as fulfill the promises made by PM Oli in Parliament before the confidence vote. This is also a crucial chance for both the NC and CPN-UML to restore public confidence and improve their image ahead of the next General Election in three years. With a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the opposition has merely any chance of unseating the government unless internal divisions arise within the coalition, particularly between the NC and CPN-UML, regarding power sharing in the coming days.

Bangladesh: Protests and Violence over Quota reform 
Ayan Datta 

What happened?
On 13 July, students blocked railway tracks in western Bangladesh’s Rajshahi City, protesting against government job quotas for descendants of “muktijoddha” (freedom fighters) who fought in Bangladesh’s 1971 War of Independence and other reforms in the country’s quota system 

On 14 July, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina supported the quota system stating, “All areas in Bangladesh are not developed equally, and there are some backward communities too. Won't the residents of these areas have any rights?” She also added that “destructive acts will not be allowed.”

On 16 July, Bangladesh’s University Grants Commission (UGC) ordered universities to close until further notice and vacate their residential halls for students’ safety. Additionally, the government disconnected universities' electricity, water and internet services. On the same day, BCL members clashed with protesters in Dhaka, leading to six deaths and 300 injuries.

On 17 July, Hasina announced judicial inquiries into the protesters’ deaths. On the same day, the quota reform group Boishommobirodhi Chhatro Andolan (BCA, meaning “Anti-Discrimination Student Movement”) asked protesters to enforce a “complete shutdown” across Bangladesh.

On 18 July, BCA protesters set fire to the government broadcaster Bangladesh Television’s Rampura office. They clashed with police and blocked national highways and railway tracks. Around 32 people died in the clashes. On the same day, the government disconnected internet services across the country

On 19 July, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police banned rallies and processions in the capital and fired tear gas, rubber bullets and sound grenades at protesters. Additionally, the government announced a countrywide curfew and deployed the military.

What is the background?
First, the evolution of Bangladesh’s quota system. After Bangladesh’s independence, Prime Minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman disbanded the Mukti Bahini and muktijoddhas laid down their arms. In 1972, the government introduced quotas in government jobs for muktijoddhas (30 per cent). Later, additional quotas were introduced for minorities (five per cent), backward districts (10 per cent), women (10 per cent), and differently-abled persons (one per cent). In 2018, the government abolished the quota system following massive student protests. However, on 05 June 2024, Bangladesh’s High Court found the government’s decision unconstitutional and reintroduced the quota system.

Second, a demographic and geographic profile of the protests. Demographically, the protesters were primarily university students and job-seekers from the 15 to 29-year age group and mostly middle and working class, aspiring to the financial security of government jobs. Geographically, most protests occurred in urban areas. The demonstrations began in Dhaka but rapidly spread to other cities, including Rajshahi, Khulna and Chattogram. Protests occurred mainly in and near universities, including the universities of Dhaka, Comilla, Chattogram, and Rajshahi, which emerged as major protest sites. 

Third, the government’s response to the protests. According to the Daily Star, the government initially cooperated with the protesters, providing police protection to the students. Hasina and multiple ministers have stated that they would negotiate with the protesters if they followed lawful methods but would not tolerate public disorder. However, According to Amnesty International, as the movement gained widespread support, the government used BCL cadres to suppress it. Furthermore, Amnesty stated that the police used unlawful, unnecessary and disproportionate firepower to suppress peaceful crowds. 

Fourth, Bangladesh’s growing youth unemployment. The protests occurred against the rising youth unemployment in the country, and protesters have cited merit-based allocation as a solution to the country’s job scarcity issues. According to the International Labour Organisation, the unemployment rate for Bangladesh’s youth (20 per cent) is over three times higher than the country’s total unemployment rate (around seven per cent). Although Bangladeshi universities produce 400,000 graduates yearly, the number of government job vacancies remains at 3,000. According to the Daily Star, the resulting job scarcity made Bangladesh’s youth, particularly college and university students, insecure about their future and desperate for a remedy, leading to their high participation in the protests.

What does it mean?
The Supreme Court will likely scrap the quota system again, but Hasina will continue suppressing the students’ movement.  The students' demands are similar to the government’s 2018 decision, and the apex court has acknowledged the government’s role in the matter. However, Hasina perceives the protests to be infiltrated by opposition elements and, therefore, will not surrender to their demands directly. 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world

Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Sayeka Ghosh, Dhriti Mukherjee, Ayan Datta, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Neha Tresa George

East Asia This Week
Japan: The country strengthens ties with Pacific Islands amid regional competition
On 18 July, Japan intensified its engagement with Pacific Island nations, unveiling a comprehensive action plan during a three-day summit in Tokyo. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida emphasised his goal to: “make ties between Japan and the Pacific Island nations stronger.” The plan aligns with the region’s 2050 Strategy for Blue Pacific Continent, focusing on areas like technology, climate change, and security. Japan’s initiatives include managing undersea communication cables, enhancing climate resilience, and improving maritime security capabilities. These efforts are seen as part of a broader strategy, alongside partners like the U.S. and Australia, to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region. The summit also addressed concerns about Japan's release of treated Fukushima wastewater. 

Japan: Relations with India flourish amid changing global dynamics
On 18 July, as tensions with China rise, Japanese companies are increasingly looking to India as an alternative supply chain hub. Indian Ambassador Sibi George highlights the growing interest, stating: “We see Japanese prefectural governors leading a growing number of business delegations to India.” With India's economy booming at 8.2 per cent growth last fiscal year, George aims to increase Japanese companies in India from 1,500 to 15,000. The relationship extends beyond economics, encompassing security cooperation through the Quad alliance and potential defence-industrial collaboration. Prime Minister Modi and his counterpart Fumio Kishida have pledged to deepen ties in various sectors, including infrastructure, clean energy, and digital technologies.

South Korea: The country strengthens diplomatic ties with Canada
On 18 July, Foreign Ministers Cho Tae-yul of South Korea and Melanie Joly of Canada met to bolster bilateral relations across various sectors. The diplomats adopted an “action plan” to enhance their comprehensive partnership, covering areas such as security, economy, supply chains, technology, health, and climate change. They agreed to formalise cooperation through senior-level talks and prepare for a high-level economic security dialogue. Both ministers expressed concern over North Korea's growing military and economic ties with Russia, particularly following the signing of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty between the two nations. Canada reaffirmed its support for North Korea's denuclearisation efforts.

North Korea: The country strengthens military ties with Russia
On 19 July, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently met with Russian Vice Defence Minister Aleksey Krivoruchko in Pyongyang, marking a significant step in the growing military alliance between the two nations. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the leaders discussed the “importance and necessity” of military cooperation, with Kim expressing firm support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. This meeting followed the recent summit between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where they signed a treaty promising mutual military assistance. While both countries have denied allegations of arms deals, North Korea appears to be more open about its military ties with Russia. The visit by Krivoruchko, the first high-ranking Russian military official to visit North Korea since Putin's trip, suggested a deepening of the partnership.

South and Southeast Asia This Week
Nepal: KP Sharma Oli sworn in as the Prime Minister
On 15 July, K.P. Sharma Oli was sworn in as Nepal's Prime Minister for the fourth time after Pushpa Kamal Dahal lost support in the Parliament due to the withdrawal of coalition partners.
He was supported by the Nepali Congress, the largest party in the Parliament which withdrew its support from CPN (Maoist Centre). Mr Oli will now have to secure a vote of confidence in the house with at least 138 votes out of 275 seats.

Bangladesh: Protests turn violent
On 20 July, Reuters reported that 105 people have been killed so far in the ongoing protests in Bangladesh. The demonstrations against quotas for government jobs in the country and were sparked by student protests. Students set a jail on fire to rescue other students who were detained. Police fired tear gas and ordered shoot-on-sight orders to control the protesters. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina condemned the death of protesters.

Malaysia: Sultan Ibrahim Iskander sworn in as the 17th King 
On 20 July, Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar was sworn in as the 17th King of Malaysia at the Istana Negara in Kuala Lumpur. He replaced Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin of Pahang. Marking his five-year reign, Sultana Ibrahim aged 65 along with his wife Queen Raja Zarith Sofiah were seated in the throne hall. The coronation ceremony was followed by the King’s royal address to the people. He vowed to rule the country just and fairly and thanked the people who helped in the ceremony's success. Around 700 guests including Malay rulers, governors, and foreign dignitaries and leaders were part of the ceremony. 

Vietnam: The Communist Party Chief Nguyen Phu dies of “serious illness”
On 19 July, Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu died at the age of 80. He had been holding the country’s most powerful position for 13 years. According to his medical team, the cause of death was “old age and serious illness.” Trong as the party chief had been ruling the Communist-led Vietnam since 2011. However, Vietnam's President To Lam took over his position since the leader appeared weak recently. The party will have to decide on who will be acting party general secretary until the term expires for the next Congress in 2026

Iran: The country denies claims of planning Donald Trump’s assassination 
On 16 July, Al Jazeera reported that Iran has “angrily” denied claims circulating in the US media that it has been actively planning to assassinate Former US President Donald Trump. On 16 July, CNN broke the news regarding Iran’s alleged assassination plot citing “unnamed US officials.” Officials have also clarified that no link has been found between the attack on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania and alleged Iranian threats. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Iran, Nasser Kanaani, refuted these claims and stated that Iran “strongly rejects any involvement in the recent armed attack against Trump or claims about Iran’s intention for such an action, considering such allegations to have malicious political motives and objectives.” He, however, emphasized that Iran is serious about prosecuting Trump for his role in the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

Afghanistan: Report flags risk that extremists could have benefitted from US aid in the country
On 18 July, Reuters revealed that according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report, two State Department bureaus have not been able to “prove compliance with internal policies” that regulate vetting of aid groups in “Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.” The report further stated that “extremists may have profited” from the USD 293 million funds that Afghanistan has received so far. Highlighting the risk, the report stated in this regard: “It is critical that State knows who is actually benefitting from this assistance in order to prevent the aid from being diverted to the Taliban or other sanctioned parties.” The report also alleged that the Taliban has tried to gain access to the US aid “through several means, including the establishment of humanitarian organizations.” Further, the report revealed that out of the five state department bureaus that are responsible for vetting aid-groups, only three were found in “compliance with department regulations.” The report also emphasized the importance of “fully and consistently” assessing “risks posed by its implementing partners.” 

Pakistan: Security forces arrest 120 Afghan nations for illegally crossing into the country 
On 12 July, security forces arrested 120 Afghan nationals for illegally crossing into the Pakistani area of Chagai district. They were arrested during a search operation by security forces at the Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran borders. Officials mentioned that the operation was conducted after a tip-off about the presence of foreigners near borders. During the investigation, Levies officials found that the “arrested Afghan nationals were Uzbek and they were going to Iran illegally in search of jobs.” They were handed over to Afghan border authorities at the Baramcha border crossing point. 

Pakistan: Anti-Terrorism court grants 10-day physical remand for Imran Khan in 12 “9 May” cases 
On 16 July, The News International reported that Imran Khan who was arrested in twelve 9 May cases was given a 10-day physical remand by an Anti-Terrorism Court. Imran Khan, who participated in the court’s hearing through a video link stated: “No one conducted an independent inquiry into the May 9 incidents. A petition was filed in the Supreme Court that there should be an independent inquiry into the May 9 incidents.” He further alleged that he was attacked at Gujranwala and wanted to file an FIR, but told the court that it was rejected. After the arguments were heard from the lawyers and the prosecution, the court granted a 10-day physical remand in 12 cases. Similarly, a National Accountability Bureau (NAB) team interrogated Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi at Adiala Jail regarding the Toshakhana case reference. Earlier, on 14 July, Imran Khan and his wife were remanded for eight days by the NAB team. 

Pakistan: Lahore Anti-Terrorism court indicts Former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in 9 May case 
On 15 July, the Lahore anti-terrorism court indicted Former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi regarding the 9 May case filed at the Shadman police station. On 9 May last year, nationwide protests were demonstrated after the arrest of Imran Khan in a corruption case. Shadman police had filed a case against PTI leaders and activists for attacking and burning the police station. Last week, the prosecution had also shared a copy of the investigation report with Qureshi. Anti-Terrorism Court-I Judge Khalid Arshad held the hearing in Kot Lakhpat Jail where Qureshi pleaded guilty. Judge Arshad adjourned the next hearing till 18 July. Similarly, in December, Qureshi was implicated in 12 different cases filed by the Rawalpindi district police relating to the 9 May cases. Later, he secured bail in 13 cases in February. He is currently imprisoned in Adiala Jail for eight cases related to the 9 May violence. 

Pakistan: PBS report says population growth rate is the highest in the region 
On 18 July, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, Ahsan Iqbal, unveiled a report by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), titled: “First Ever Digital Census Key Findings Report,” in which Pakistan ranked as the fifth most populous country in the world. It also noted that Pakistan has the highest growth rate at 2.55 per cent in the region and added that if it continues, the country will double in 2050. The report further provided the data for the development of urban and rural areas and effective disaster response. The census data detailed that Karachi is the most populous city (20.4 million), and Lahore is the second most populous city (13 million). These are followed by Peshawar (4.76 million), and Quetta (2.59 million). In the overall population of the country, males represent 51.48 per cent and females' data stand at 48.51 per cent. The data also observed that the dominant religion is Islam, and the literacy indicators detail that 61 per cent are literate (ten years and above). The federal minister stated that the data gathered by PBS “will be instrumental in guiding our development efforts and enhancing our ability to respond to natural calamities.”

Pakistan: The country hosts the 97th anniversary of the founding of China’s People’s Liberation Army 
On 18 July, Pakistan hosted an event commemorating the 97th anniversary of the founding of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), at the General Headquarters of the Pakistani Army at Rawalpindi. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, was the chief guest at the event. Major General Wang Zhong, Defence Attaché, officials from the Chinese Embassy, and officers from Pakistan’s tri-services participated in the event. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Syed Asim Munir, commended the PLA’s contribution to China's defence, security, and national development. He stated: “Relations between the Pakistan Army and the People’s Liberation Army are strong and both militaries continue to engage in bilateral military cooperation, demonstrating the iron-clad brotherhood between the two countries.” Further, Zaidong expressed his gratitude for the event and stated: “We stand ready to work with our brethren to combat terrorism and firmly believe that no force can destroy the iron-clad friendship between China and Pakistan and the brotherhood between the two militaries.” 

The Middle East This Week
United Arab Emirates: Dubai Crown Prince appointed Defence Minister amid cabinet reshuffle
On 14 July, according to Reuters, the UAE’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, stated that he appointed the Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan, as Minister of Defence. The move was part of a cabinet reshuffle. The Prime Minister announced other changes, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan being appointed as Deputy Prime Minister and multiple new ministerial appointments.

Syria: Bashar al-Assad’s Baath party wins majority in parliamentary elections 
On 18 July, according to Arab News, Syria’s Supreme Judicial Committee for Elections announced the results of the parliamentary elections held on 15 July. Out of 250 seats, a coalition led by President Bashar al-Assad’s Baath Party won 185. The coalition increased its seat count from 177 in the previous elections of 2017. 1,516 candidates and 38 per cent of the 19.3 million eligible voters participated in the elections. 

Israel: ICJ judges Israeli occupation unlawful; Netanyahu says settlements legal
On 19 July, according to the Guardian, the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a non-binding judgment that “The sustained abuse by Israel of its position as an occupying power, through annexation and an assertion of permanent control over the occupied Palestinian territory and continued frustration of the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, violates fundamental principles of international law and renders Israel’s presence in the occupied Palestinian territory unlawful.” The 15-judge bench also found that Israel violated Article 3 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD), which obliges parties to “prevent, prohibit and eradicate all practices” related to “racial segregation and apartheid” on their territories. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office rejected the verdict, stating, “The Jewish people are not occupiers in their land – not in our eternal capital Jerusalem, nor in our ancestral heritage of Judea and Samaria (Hebrew names for the occupied West Bank) ...the legality of Israeli settlements in all parts of our homeland cannot be disputed.” 

Turkey: Erdogan visits Northern Cyprus, accuses Greece-backed Cyprus of “spoiled mentality”
On 19 July, according to Middle East Monitor, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) to attend the 50th anniversary of Turkey’s military operation that created the TRNC, called Peace and Freedom Day. Erdogan stated that Turkey was ready to achieve a lasting solution to the Cyprus territorial dispute through negotiations. He also accused the Greece-backed Republic of Turkey of having a “spoiled mentality” for wanting to be the only government of the island. 

Africa This Week
Kenya: Catholic Church holds special Mass for protesters
On 14 July, according to the BBC, Kenya’s Catholic churches in and around Nairobi held a special Sunday Mass to commemorate the people killed by police in anti-tax protests. The Mass was held at Nairobi’s Holy Family Basilica. The attendees sang and waved Kenyan flags to support the protesters. Bishop Simon Kamomoe said, “I know as young people sometimes you feel disappointed even in the Church…we would like to renew our commitment in serving you. We can be mistaken…May the Lord forgive us as a Church, where even before God, we have disappointed you.”  

Rwanda: Kagame set to win presidential elections with over 99 per cent votes
On 15 July, Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) reported the partial results for the presidential elections held the same day. With 78.94 per cent of the votes counted, incumbent President Paul Kagame was set to win the elections, securing 99.15 per cent of the votes. Opposition leaders Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and Independent candidate Phillipe Mpayimana won less than one per cent each. The NEC will announce the final results by 27 July. 

Nigeria: UAE reverses visa ban on Nigerians
On 15 July, Nigeria’s Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris Malagi stated that the United Arab Emirates would lift its visa ban on Nigerians after “mutually beneficial negotiations.” According to the “updated controls and conditions,” Nigerian visitors could apply for a visa after showing multiple documents, including identity proof and travel history. The UAE imposed visa restrictions on Nigerians in 2022 because of multiple factors, including improper conduct by Nigerian visitors, attempts by such visitors to circumvent visa rules, and the Nigerian government’s decision to reduce UAE-based Emirates Airlines’ flights to Nigeria. 

Gambia: National Assembly rejects bill to reverse ban on female genital mutilation
On 16 July, according to the BBC, members of the Gambia’s National Assembly voted against a bill to overturn the countrywide ban on female genital mutilation (FGM). The Assembly’s Speaker, Fabakary Tombong Jatta, stated that the bill was “rejected and the legislative process exhausted.” The bill was introduced in March with pressure from Muslim clerics. The Gambia has one of the highest rates of FGM, with around 70 per cent of women aged 15 to 49 years undergoing the procedure. 

South Africa: Zuma to face ANC disciplinary hearing
On 17 July, Africanews reported that South Africa’s former President and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party leader, Jacob Zuma, would face a disciplinary hearing before the African National Congress (ANC) for campaigning against the party. The hearing would be held in ANC’s Johannesburg headquarters. Although Zuma formed and campaigned for the MK party in the 2024 elections, he did not give up his ANC membership. 

The Europe This Week
Germany: The coalition government agrees on the budget for 2025
On 17 June, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany’s draft budget for the year 2025. The new budget resulted from weeks of negotiations among Germany’s cabinet. The total budget for the year is EUR 480.6 billion which was EUR 8 billion less than this year. The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Green Party’s Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, and the finance minister Christian Lindner had been trying to close a financing gap of EUR 30 billion for weeks. Lindner said: “A balanced budget was only possible by curbing the politicians' appetite for ever higher government spending.” The budget allocates increased payments to families, more investment in kindergarten and the climate crisis. According to Lindner, this budget was the “start of the economic turnaround" for Germany. Several initiatives were planned to provide incentives to the employees along with tax advantages to attract foreign skilled workers. Lindner aims to bring an extra EUR six million as revenue next year.

Regional: Roberta Metsola re-elected as the President of the European Parliament
On 16 July, Deutsche Welle reported on the re-election of Malta’s Roberta Metsola as President of the European Parliament for another two-and-a-half-year term. She won 562 votes leaving her left-wing rival Irene Montero of Spain with only 61 votes. The victory came amidst criticism over her derailed efforts to advance women’s rights. Metsola expressed her gratitude to the assembly and urged lawmakers to confirm the "belief that ours is a Europe for all." She also promised to create a new security and defence framework for the safety of people.

Macron accepts the resignation of Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal
On 16 July, POLITICO reported that French President Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation submitted by Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister of France. According to a statement by the Elysée, the official website of the French Republic, Macron urged "all Republican forces" to reach an agreement to end this transition period "as soon as possible." The resignation has set forth a transitory period usually up to nine days to appoint a new executive. Till then, the outgoing administration carried out the role of “caretaker government.” Although the choice of Prime Minister and cabinet executives lie with Macron, the prevailing political uncertainty paints a blurry image for France. The victorious left-wing New Popular Front coalition seemed far from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The executives under the caretaker government could continue their daily duties until a political judgment or legal questions were raised.

The Americas This Week
Dominican Republic: Protests against new criminal code that would keep total abortion ban in place
On 17 July, activists in the Dominican Republic protested against a bill for a new criminal code that would allow the country’s total abortion ban to stay in place, as lawmakers are expected to give the bill final approval shortly. Activists called on the government for legal abortion in cases where the mother’s life is at risk, the pregnancy is the product of rape or incest, or if there is foetal malformation. In the country, women can face up to two years in prison for having an abortion, and doctors who conduct them can face five to 20 years. A leader of a minority political party, Nicole Pichardo, stated that they want a code that “respects women and girls, that allows them to decide,” while another protestor said that the “penal code that the Senate approved does not represent” them. Many activists have accused the President of the Dominican Republic, Luis Abinader, of going back on his promises to allow abortion in the aforementioned cases.

Mexico: President says he will warn Donald Trump against the potentially closing border
On 19 July, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) called former US President Donald Trump a “friend” who is a “man of intelligence and vision,” and said he would warn Trump against his pledge to close the border or blame the migrants for bringing drugs to the US. In 2015, Trump offended Mexicans by claiming that in many cases, illegal immigrants in the US included “criminals, drug dealers, rapists.” Later in 2019, Trump threatened to close the border “for a long time” if Mexican authorities failed to stop migrants from crossing. AMLO pointed out that since the economies of both countries were intertwined, the border could not be closed for even a month. He stated that in a letter, he would “prove” to Trump that “migrants don’t carry drugs” to the US and that “closing the border won’t solve anything.

The US: CrowdStrike CEO says total recovery following global tech outage could take weeks
On 20 July, the CEO of US cybersecurity company CrowdStrike George Kurtz, whose botched software update on the Falcon Sensor caused Microsoft’s Windows operating system to face issues, cautioned that a total recovery could take weeks even though services were back online. A day earlier, the faulty update caused an “unprecedented” technology outage, grounding flights and disrupting businesses, hospitals, and news outlets. Kurtz issued a personal apology to all those impacted, encouraging “everyone to remain vigilant.” The team of US President Joe Biden assured it was “standing by to provide assistance as needed” and was in touch with CrowdStrike. Several concerns and questions were raised about the dependency and reliability of the world on technology.

The US: President Biden promises to stay in presidential race amid growing calls to withdraw
On 19 July, amid calls from Democrats to withdraw from the race, US President Joe Biden said he would return to campaigning the following week after recovering from COVID-19. In spite of his supporters asking him to appoint another candidate in his place, Biden stated that the “stakes are high” in light of Trump’s “dark vision for the future.” 12 more Democratic politicians called on Biden to step aside, with New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich saying Biden’s withdrawal would “secure his legacy” and allow the party to “unite behind a candidate who can best defeat” Trump.

About the authors
Mahesh Batt is a Research Officer at the Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at NIAS. Vetriselvi Baskaran and Dhriti Mukherjee are Research Assistants at NIAS. Sayeka Ghosh, and Neha Tresa George are Research Interns at NIAS. 

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