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CWA # 1461
The World This Week
Kiribati Elections 2024 and Political turmoil in Bangladesh

  GP Team
24 August 2024

The World This Week #276, Vol. 6 No. 30, 24 August 2024
 

Advik S Mohan and Ayush Bhattacharjee

Kiribati Elections 2024
Advik S Mohan

What happened?
On 14 August, Kiribati held the first round of parliamentary elections for 44 seats. 25 candidates, who received over 50 per cent of the vote, were elected, including the incumbent President Taneti Maamau.

On 19 August, the second round of parliamentary elections was held for the remaining 19 seats. 16 new members were elected, including five women. A newly elected Member of Parliament, Ruth Kwansing, said: “I just need to make sure that I’m in the right party because you’re somewhat powerless if you’re in the wrong party.”

What is the background?
First, a brief background to Kiribati’s political system. Since independence from Britain in 1979, the Pacific Island country has followed a system of parliamentary democracy. The legislature and the head of the executive are directly elected. Kiribati has a 44-member unicameral legislature with one seat nominated for a representative of the Banaban community on Rabi Island. It has a two-round election system. In the first round, candidates receiving over 50 per cent of the vote are elected. In the second round, elections are held for the seats where no candidate received over 50 per cent of the votes, and the candidate who gets the majority vote wins. The new parliament chooses candidates to contest in the presidential elections. The country has an informal political culture with candidates running as independents. Political affiliations change depending on specific issues, and defections are common. The ruling Tobwaan Kiribati Party (TKP) of President Taneti Maamau, and the Kamanoan Kiribati Party are the major political parties.

Second, a brief note on previous elections. There are elections every four years. Teneti Maamau’s TKP has been in power for the last two terms. In 2020, the TKP lost its parliamentary majority, securing 22 out of 44 seats. 13 MPs defected over the Maamau administration’s decision to cut ties with Taiwan and move closer to China. The opposition parties Pillars of Truth and Kiribati First merged to form the Boutokaan Kiribati Moa Party (BKM), with the support of the 13 erstwhile members of the TKP. However, Maamau was re-elected as President, defeating the BKM candidate Banuera Berina. After the 2020 presidential election, the BKM dissolved itself, with most of its members forming the new Kamanoan Kiribati Party.

Third, the major electoral issues in 2024. While Kiribati’s growing relations with China have received international attention, inflation and climate change were more pressing issues for voters. Kiribati’s cost of living has increased with external debt expected to reach 35 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2029 and the budget deficit at 9.7 per cent. Kiribati’s position as a low-lying Pacific country has made it vulnerable to rising sea levels. The increasing sea levels have made basic needs including freshwater and agriculture more difficult. Migration from other parts of the country has made Kiribati’s capital Tarawa one of the most densely populated cities in the world. Overcrowding and diseases are common in the city.

What does it mean? 
If Maamau is re-elected, the candidates are likely to support his party. However, if another candidate triumphs, the parliament could be dominated by opposing parties.

Second, a government change could lead to Kiribati seeking to rebuild ties with neighbours including Australia. The Maamau administration has grown closer to China since 2019. Despite its small population, Kiribati is a strategic location due to its position in the Pacific and proximity to the US state of Hawaii. The government’s pro-China stance, joining the Belt and Road Initiative, allowing Chinese police deployments, and constructing an airstrip on the island by China has caused alarm among the US and its allies in the region including Australia and New Zealand. Similarly, Kiribati temporarily left the Pacific Islands Forum, barred foreign observers from the country until 2025 and left a proposed bilateral agreement with Australia in limbo. Opposition parties and leaders including the BKM presidential candidate in 2020 Berina have indicated being more receptive to Western interests in the past few years. A new administration is likely to rebuild ties with the West. Meanwhile, another victory for Maamau could push Kiribati further into the Chinese orbit, and allow China to increase its influence over the country.

Bangladesh: Two Weeks after Hasina’s Exit, an increasing demand for her extradition 
Ayush Bhattacharjee

What happened?
On 20 August 2024, Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir urged India to hand over Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh. Former PM Sheikh Hasina is facing 49 cases against her including mass murder charges, abduction, crimes against humanity and genocide. 

On 20 August 2024, Dhaka Metropolitan Police arrested former state minister for Liberation War Captain (Retd) AB Tajul Islam, former chairman of Chittagong port Radm Mohammad Sohail and former MP Ahmad Hossain. DMP also arrested sixth-time Awami League lawmaker ASM Firoz. 

On 21 August, Chinese Ambassador to Dhaka Yao Wen and BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir met at the BNP chairperson's Gulshan office in Dhaka. Chinese Ambassador assured that China would enhance investment and support the development of Bangladesh. The ambassador also reiterated China’s non-intervention in the internal matters of other nations. “We believe our relations with China will deepen, and we will advance our ties based on mutual trust,” Fakhrul said.

On 21 August, Chhatra Dal, the student wing of the BNP released a list of 49 leaders and activists of the organisation who were killed during the Anti-Discrimination student movement. The President of Chhatra Dal, Rakibul Islam Rakib released the list at a briefing in the BNP central office in Naya Paltan, Dhaka. 

On 21 August, the interim government decided to revoke the diplomatic passports of former PM Sheikh Hasina and former ministers and MPs. Md Mashiur Rahman, senior secretary of the Security Services Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs confirmed that procedures for this matter have been initiated. 

On 22 August, a UN Team led by Rory Mungoven, the chief of the Asia-Pacific Section of the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights arrived in Bangladesh to discuss modalities for an investigation into human rights abuses and violations during the violence and unrest during the student protests. 

What is the background?
First, five weeks after the protests in Bangladesh. The interim government headed by Mohammad Yunus has been working to restore the law and order in the country. The interim government of 17 members including student leaders has prioritised improving law enforcement and addressing the demands of the different protesting organisations. The interim government has arrested high-profile leaders - politicians and government officials. 

Second, increasing legal cases against Sheikh Hasina. Mohammad Touhid Hossain, the de facto foreign minister said that Sheikh Hasina is now facing numerous cases. The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) which was established by Hasina in 2010 to investigate atrocities during the Bangladesh Liberation War against Pakistan has started a probe against Hasina and 9 others on the charges of genocide and crimes against humanity that took place from 15 July to 5 August. 

Third, India and Bangladesh extradition treaty. Signed in 2013, the treaty came into being in the context of several fugitive groups in the northeast which used Bangladesh as a hideout for operations. At the same time, Bangladesh was facing trouble from outfits such as the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh. According to the treaty, India and Bangladesh are to extradite individuals “who have been proceeded against… or have been charged with or have been found guilty of, or are wanted for… committing an extraditable offense” by a court of the requesting country. However, the treaty, amended in 2016, allows for extradition based solely on an arrest warrant from a competent court, eliminating the previous requirement for evidence of the alleged crime. This means that India could be compelled to extradite Hasina. Article 8 lists out multiple grounds for refusal including cases in which an accusation has not been “made in good faith in the interests of justice” or in cases of military offences which are not “an offence under the general criminal law”

What does it mean? 
First, Bangladesh is facing another political transition. While there is so much anger against Hasina, the problems and challenges facing the country are complex and not just political. The interim government does not have a magic wand. 

Second, the focus in extraditing Hasina as an answer to all its problem and managing the bilateral relations with India. India welcoming Sheikh Hasina is more of a gesture to uphold the long relationship which India forged with the Hasina administration. India will have to make a strategic choice and Bangladesh cannot afford a strained relationship with India. 

Third, the interim government has been tasked to conduct elections within 90 days according to the mandate of the constitution of Bangladesh. The immediate focus for Bangladesh should be on managing the political transition than pursuing a vendetta.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Samrudhi Pathak, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George and Advik S Mohan

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: 11 new nuclear reactors approved
On 20 August, Business Standard reported that the State Council of the People’s Republic of China had approved 11 new nuclear reactors across five sites. According to Jiemian Global, the reactors across Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Zheijang and Guangxi are expected to cost USD 31 billion. China has approved ten new reactors in the past two years and has more nuclear reactors under construction than any other country. According to investment bank Citic Securities Co., ten new reactors would be approved annually for the next three to five years, with new projects including a fourth-generation nuclear reactor.  According to research organisation BloombergNEF, China will become the world’s leading atomic energy producer by 2030.

China: EU lowers half tariff for China-made Tesla electric vehicles
On 20 August, Reuters reported that the EU reduced half the planned tariff on Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China. The EU set a new reduced nine per cent tariff for Tesla, lower than the 20.8 per cent planned earlier. Tesla requested a recalculation of the tariff rate amidst the European Commission's plan to impose tariffs on Chinese EV imports. The Commission confirmed that Tesla received fewer subsidies from the Chinese government compared to other EV manufacturers. However, the Commission plans to impose a tariff of up to 36.3 per cent on other Chinese EV companies. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that it would take all measures to protect Chinese firms, and hoped the EU would take practical actions to avoid tensions. The Chinese government issued a formal complaint over the tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

China: Premier visits Russia for the 29th regular meeting
On 21 August, CGTN reported that the Premier of China, Li Qiang, arrived in Russia for the 29th Regular Meeting between Chinese and Russian Heads of Government. Li was additionally on an official visit to Russia at the invitation of the Prime Minister of Russia, Mikhail Mishustin. Upon his arrival, Li stated that the countries set a model for a new model of international relations between neighbouring countries under the guidance of the President of China, Xi Jinping, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. According to Li, China-Russia ties have shown cooperation, friendship, and trust recently. Li noted how both Presidents laid out a strategic plan for a new era of China-Russia relations on the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic ties between them. 

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
North Korea: US condemned for approving the sale of Apache attack helicopters to South Korea
On 23 August, the Korea Times reported North Korea’s criticism of the US approving the sale of Apache attack helicopters to South Korea. The Korean Central News Agency quoted North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “The US is now getting more active in its arms sale to Japan, ROK and other allies in the Asia-Pacific region, and this is a challenge to security in the region that cannot be overlooked.” The statement emphasised the increasing security instability in the region amidst the escalation of tensions in the Korean peninsula due to the joint military exercises conducted between the US and South Korea. In addition, North Korea stated it will steadily conduct necessary military activities to control the imbalance and instability in the territory. 

Japan: Financial markets remain unstable, says Chief of BOJ
On 23 August, Kyodo News reported on unstable financial markets in Japan. The Chief of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda said: “There is no change in our basic stance to adjust the degree of monetary easing" if the central bank confirms that its 2 per cent inflation goal has been attained.” Ueda further stated that the central bank would seek policy normalisation to keep the yen firmer against the US dollar, however, will limit the rise as it stands considerate to market developments. Japan’s Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki said that the government’s position was not in a state of deflation, but he alerted the possibility of a comeback. 

Japan: To advance the 2008 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation with India
On 20 August, Japan and India agreed to further their 2008 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, reflecting contemporary priorities and security challenges. Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said: “I also shared our desire for a new vision for our overall partnership that orients our relations in line with our evolving national goals and priorities.” Meanwhile, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said: “An increasingly severe international security environment is a key factor in updating the document, and both sides had reaffirmed a strong determination to work toward creating new solutions together.” Additionally, the ministers appreciated the progress on the Unified Complex Radio Antenna (UNICORN) and related technologies along with the installation of cutting-edge radar antennas, as part of the Nora-50 integration mast in the advanced Mogami-class frigates. They called for closer security cooperation, including China’s growing political and economic influence and forceful behaviour in disputed areas with China. 

Australia: Senate passes the bipartisan motion that criticises “One China” policy
On 22 August, ABC News reported that Taiwan's embassy in Canberra praised Australia after the Senate passed a bipartisan motion, criticising China's attempts to use a 50-year-old UN resolution to claim Taiwan as part of its territory. The Senate passed a motion moved by Liberal senator David Fawcett and the ALP's Deborah O'Neill. It read: “UN Resolution 2758 does not establish the People's Republic of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and does not determine the future status of Taiwan in the UN.” The senators travelled to Taiwan previously this year for a conference organised by the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which condemned Beijing's use of Resolution 2758 pressing forward the ‘One China Principle’ and claiming full sovereignty over Taiwan. The Taipei Economic and Cultural Office stated that the Australian parliament was the first to openly back the new IPAC initiative. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Thailand: Economy slumps amidst declining exports
On 21 August, caretaker Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said that Thailand’s economy was nearing a crisis due to declining exports. Chunhavajira stated that the manufacturing sector was incompetent and unable to meet the market demands. In Thailand, exports accounted for 70 per cent of the economy. The Finance Ministry expects an economic growth of 2.7 per cent in 2024 amidst lag in the second quarter.

Indonesia: Drops the bill aimed at reverting the election laws
On 23 August, the parliament cancelled the controversial bill, set to reverse the election laws against the backdrop of large-scale protests. It planned to alter a constitutional court order over candidate age requirements for the upcoming elections which had made President Joko Widodo’s youngest son, 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep, ineligible. According to critics, the change aimed to increase Widodo’s political influence and deter democracy. The protests outside the parliament delayed the session and eventually dropped the bill for the upcoming election.

Pakistan: Foreign Office rejects possibility of trade with India
On 16 August, the Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zara Baloch responded to a question on the resumption of bilateral trade between India and Pakistan. Baloch reminded that Pakistan had suspended bilateral trade with India in 2019 in opposition to India’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. She said: “The situation remains intact, and at this point, there are no bilateral talks between the two countries concerning bilateral trade between Pakistan and India.” The Shehbaz Sharif administration and the Pakistani business community have been expressing their desire to renew trade relations with India. Baloch additionally referenced the recent death of four young Kashmiris at the hands of the Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir, calling it against the law. She called on the international community to hold India accountable for the human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan: 50 per cent of all inland cargo to be brought via Gwadar port
On 19 August, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called on authorities to bring 50 per cent of public sector cargo through the Gwadar Seaport. The forum was briefed upon a Chinese delegation visit. They met with top leaders of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Additionally, Chinese experts would sign up for technology transfer to remove all barriers and encourage Pakistan’s exports. 

Pakistan: IMF bailout approval postponed to September, confirms Finance Minister
On 21 August, Minister for Finance Mohammad Aurangzeb confirmed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would approve the USD seven billion bailout by September. State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed refused to admit that it was caused by the government not being able to meet its “external financing gap.” He told journalists that Pakistan’s request for debt rollovers would be accepted once “when the maturity of deposits of $12 billion would become due.” These revelations came after the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue held on 21 August. The committee was briefed that the State Bank of Pakistan had imposed a fine of PKR 208 on banks for money laundering. Meanwhile, Aurangzeb informed the committee that the bill was necessary to meet a target under the IMF Programme.

Nepal: Government to lift TikTok ban
On 21 August, The Kathmandu Post reported that Nepal’s government would lift restrictions on the popular Chinese app TikTok, after banning it for nearly nine months. The previous administration, led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, implemented the ban in November 2023, citing concerns over social harmony. The KP Sharma Oli government plans to allow TikTok’s operation with new regulations. The app’s South Asia division recently reached Communication Minister Prithvi Subba Gurung, pledging compliance with local rules. The ban’s reversal would be decided in the upcoming Cabinet meeting. Despite the restriction, many users bypassed it using VPNs, leading to a 20 per cent increase in international bandwidth consumption. Internet service providers report that TikTok accounts for nearly 40 per cent of Nepal’s internet bandwidth usage.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK 
Israel: Banks refuse transfers from Palestinian Banks
On 21 August, according to Reuters, the Palestinian Monetary Authority stated that banks in Palestine would be unable to finance trade operations between Palestinian and Israeli depositors because Israeli banks were refusing cash transfers from Palestinian banks. The authority said that Israel’s policy would prevent Palestinians from accessing essential goods and services.

Saudi Arabia: To release two Iranian prisoners amid diplomatic normalisation
On 20 August, according to the Middle East Monitor, Saudi Arabia would release two Iranians arrested during the 2024 Hajj pilgrimage. The news was interpreted as a goodwill gesture from Saudi Arabia, which revived diplomatic relations with Iran this year. Iranian officials said that the move would lay the foundations for future dialogue and cooperation between the two Islamic states.

Jordan: 42 per cent citizens considering emigration amid worsening economy
On 20 August, according to the Middle East Monitor, the Arab Barometer think tank reported that 42 per cent of Jordanians were thinking about leaving the country because of the worsening economic and cost-of-living conditions. The report came after Jordan’s Chief Commissioner of Petra Development and Tourism Authority, Fares Braizat, stated that tourism had declined by 80 per cent in 2024 because of the Israel-Hamas war. It reported that the war caused 90 per cent of hotels in Petra, Jordan’s most popular tourist attraction, to close down and 320 employees being fired.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Kenya: Kenya Airways announces first half-year profit in a decade
On 20 August, Kenya Airways reported its half-year profit of USD 4 million after taxes. In 2023, during the same period, the airway faced a loss of USD 18 million. In 2018, Kenya Airways struggled with heavy debt from an expansion drive which worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. This term, the airline recorded a 22 per cent increase in revenue and a ten per cent increase in passengers. CEO Allan Kilavuka described it as a milestone and expressed “reasonable confidence” in a major full-year profit in 2024. The profit is attributed to reduced foreign exchange losses due to strengthening Kenyan shillings and a successful international bond sale. 

South Africa: Qatar Airways acquires 25 per cent stake in Airlink
On 20 August, Qatar Airways acquired a 25 per cent stake in South African carrier Airlink. Airlink flies to over 45 airports in southern and East Africa. Qatar Airways stated: “Our investment further demonstrates how integral we see Africa being to our business’ future.” Abidjan, Abuja, Accra, Harare, Luanda and Lusaka were recently added to the Qatar Airways network. 

Egypt: Increases electricity rates to expand IMF loan
On 20 August, Egypt announced plans to increase household electricity charges, ranging from 14.4 per cent to 50 per cent. The increase will depend on the consumption bracket of individuals. The objective of the raise is to expand the IMF loan programme to USD eight billion. The country has been depending on load-shedding as it required an import of USD 1.18 billion of natural gas and mazut fuel oil to continue the grid. 

Africa: China-Africa summit on 5 September
On 23 August, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong commented on the need to strengthen ties with Africa ahead of the China-Africa summit in September. Chen stated: “Currently, a once-in-a-century change is accelerating and the world has entered a period of turbulence and transformation. China and African countries are both important members of the Global South, and Africa is experiencing a new awakening by actively promoting the process of unity, self-improvement, and integration.” The 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is scheduled for 5 September in Beijing. Representatives from 55 African countries will participate in the summit.

THE EUROPE THIS WEEK 
The UK: Proposes measures against migration through the English Channel 
On 21 August, the UK Government announced the recruitment of 100 new “specialist intelligence and investigation officers" into the National Crime Agency to tackle the high number of boats filled with asylum seekers, including human smugglers. The newly elected Labour Party-led government plans to increase detention capacity and sanction employers who hire people with no right to work in the UK. The UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer scrapped the policy that included deportation of undocumented individuals to Rwanda. Instead, Starmer plans announced plans to dismantle human traffickers who organise illegal crossing of borders. The government will appoint a Border Security Commander to cooperate with other European countries on illegal migration. Starmer pledged to cooperate with France on the surge of illegal migration. So far, 19,294 people have crossed the English Channel illegally this year. The number is ten per cent higher compared to 2023. The government is currently investigating 70 cases of human trafficking.

Georgia: Georgian Dream party vows to ban United National Movement
On 21 August, Georgia’s ruling party Georgian Dream blamed the largest opposition party United National Movement (UNM) for starting the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. It accused the party of planning to open a second front in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The Party pledged to declare UNM and its satellite parties as unconstitutional once Georgia Dream gets a majority in the parliament. The party intends to introduce bills curbing the propagation of LGBTQ+ ideas, similar to Hungary and Bulgaria. Currently, the Georgian Dream party can still appeal to the Constitutional Court to outlaw the party based on the allegation of the attempt to “overthrow the constitutional order of the country…to infringe on the independence and territorial integrity of the country, or to propagandise war or violence.” The opposition claims that Georgia Dream wants to concede to Russia. Parliamentary elections in Georgia will take place on 26 October. 

Ukraine: Indian Prime Minister visits Ukraine for “peaceful resolution”
On 23 August, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ukraine after wrapping up his two-day visit to Poland. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Modi on his victory in the Indian elections. Although India did not condemn Russia over the war in Ukraine, Modi called himself a “friend and partner hoping for an early return of peace and stability in the region.” Modi stated: “I am confident that the visit will serve as a natural continuation of extensive contacts with the two countries and help create the foundation for stronger and more vibrant relations in the years ahead.” 

Ukraine: Parliament ratifies statute to become member of ICC
On 21 August, Ukraine’s parliament ratified the Rome Statute to make it a party of the International Criminal Court (ICC). It was passed with 281 in favour with a temporary exception to the Ukrainian military. This means the military would not be charged with war crimes for seven years from the official adoption. Kyiv affirmed that the ICC requests for peace and cooperation would be made through diplomats and then to the Ukrainian state prosecutor or the Ministry of Justice.

THE AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The US: Democratic National Convention held from 19-22 August in Chicago
On 19-22 August, the Democratic National Convention was held in Chicago. All Democrat leaders including Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and Joe Biden came forward to support Kamala Harris’ candidature for the presidential elections. Kamala Harris made a speech on the concluding day. She talked about her working-class family background and journey to becoming the first woman of colour Vice President of the US. Democrat candidate for Vice President, Tim Walz, talked about his experience in the military service. On 21 August, Barack Obama said that the US was ready to see Kamala Harris as the President.

Mexico: President Obrador proposes controversial judicial reforms
On 22 August, several judicial workers and judges in Mexico protested against the proposed controversial judicial reforms. The current government led by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also called AMLO, proposed reforms wherein the federal judges, including Supreme Court appointees and electoral magistrates, will be elected by popular vote. Obrador said that this reform would uproot corruption from the judicial system. He accused the judiciary of neglecting organised crime in Mexico. A government survey in 2023 found that more than 50 per cent of the participants had no confidence in the judiciary. Meanwhile, law experts criticised the proposal and suggested that it would undermine judicial independence in Mexico. The US Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, said that the reforms, if passed, will hamper the US-Mexico economic relations. 

About the Authors
Ayush Bhattacharjee is a graduate from St Josephs University, Bengaluru. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak and Advik S Mohan are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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