The World This Week

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CWA # 1539, 18 November 2024
The World This Week
APEC Summit 2024 and Sri Lanka Parliamentary Elections 2024

  GP Team

The World This Week #285 and 286, Vol. 6 No. 39 and 40, 18 November 2024         

Sayeka Ghosh and D Suba Chandran

APEC Summit 2024
Sayeka Ghosh

What happened?
During 10-16 November, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Week took place in Lima, Peru, under the theme "Empower. Include. Grow." Leaders from the economies of 21 Pacific Rim countries attended the summit. 

Peru's President Dina Boluarte emphasized that APEC economies must push for inclusive growth by reducing informal labour. At the end of the 2024 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, cochaired by Peru Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer and Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister Desilu León, ministers representing the 21 APEC member economies issued a joint statement outlining new actions for advancing an Asia-Pacific economic growth agenda that benefits all its people and future generations according to the theme "Empower. Include. Grow."

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the APEC. Launched in 1989 with the objective of acting as a platform of 12 founding economies, the APEC has expanded to 21 economies today. APEC is a critical multilateral trade and investment promotion forum for countries in the Pacific Rim region. As much as the institution has spearheaded the efforts to scale down and eliminate barriers to trade, recent geopolitical tensions and unbalanced global trade dynamics have influenced its effectiveness over time.

Second, the growing China factor within the APEC. China has increased its importance through strategic economic initiatives and infrastructure investment in the region. APEC has become a valuable platform for China to achieve economic and diplomatic expansion, especially in initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and strategic infrastructure projects in its member economies.

Third, the increasing role of the middle powers. The middle powers increasingly become crucial in maintaining regional stability within APEC. For example, Australia's strategic position indicates the growing importance of middle-sized economies in preventing the outbreak of trade wars and continued economic cooperation in the polarising world of the twenty-first century.

Fourth, the global economic risks in the APEC background. The growth in the APEC region is forecasted to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.7 per cent in the medium term. The slowdown was due to deeper structural problems, namely, the rise of debt and the impact of geopolitical tensions on the heels of post-pandemic recovery.

What does it mean?
First, the challenge facing the APEC today. Growing tensions between various geopolitical forces and increasing preference for bilateral arrangements instead of discussing matters in a multilateral manner put the organization into test.

Second, the middle power and regional diplomacy. Australia's Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, emerged as a possible mediator between the US and China, indicating the assumption of the growing importance of middle powers in stability and dialogue promotion within the region.

Third, China's APEC approach is evident in its preference for bilateral arrangements for multilateral engagement. This was particularly evident with the selective attendance by Xi Jinping at the summit, especially in attending the inauguration of the Chancay port to miss crucial APEC meetings. This pattern is consistent with China's global diplomatic approach of using forums for multilateral purposes to make international bilateral ties, very much in concert with patterns observed in other international gatherings such as G20 and Belt and Road Forums.

Sri Lanka Parliamentary Elections 2024: Rise and rise of the JVP
D. Suba Chandran

What happened?
On 14 November 2024, Sri Lanka held the Parliamentary elections. According to the election commission of Sri Lanka, there were 11.14 million valid votes out of 17.14 million registered voters. 

The NPP (National People's Power/Jathika Jana Balawegaya), led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, secured 61.5 per cent of the votes polled, winning 159 of the total 225 seats for the Parliament. The SJP (Samagi Jana Balawegaya), led by Sajith Premadasa, secured 17.6 per cent of the votes, winning 40 seats. All other political parties, including the big three – the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) could only secure less than five per cent of votes. 

What is the background?
First, the rise and rise of the JVP. Though the latest Parliamentary election is won by a coalition of 20 plus parties, unions and rights groups under “National People’s Power (NPP),” the core remains the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). From less than four per cent of votes in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections of 2019, the rise of JVP has been phenomenal, to win the Presidential election in September 2024 and the Parliamentary election now with 60 plus per cent of the votes polled. From being a violent left-wing group that was banned in the 1970s and 80s for waging an armed resistance, today, with 150 plus seats out of the total 225 in Parliament, the JVP's political evolution seems complete. It is also a comprehensive victory across the Sri Lankan geography – physical and ethnic. The JVP has secured votes and won seats across all segments – from Jaffna in the north to Galle and Hambantota in the south and across Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim communities. 

Second, the rejection of the big three – SLPP, UNP and SLFP. The United National Party (UNP), founded in the 1940s and led by stalwarts like DS Senanayake, Dudley Senanayake, John Kotelawala, JR Jayawardane and Premadasa seems to be fading with every election, despite Ranil Wickremesinghe’s efforts. The other big party – the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), founded in the 1950s and led by another set of stalwarts like SWRD Bandaranaike, Srimava Bandaranaike and Chandrika Kumaratunga has also been facing a decline. Both parties failed to touch the double-digit – regarding votes polled and seats won for the present Parliament. The SLPP received the biggest setback in the 2024 elections; after winning the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in 2019, the fall of Rajapaksas and their party have been spectacular.

Third, the search for a change. The 2024 vote for the September Presidential and the October Parliamentary elections reflect the people's frustrations and aspirations, cutting across ethnic and religious divides. More than the belief in the JVP and its ideology, the vote for the Presidential and Parliamentary elections reflects the national anger against the three big parties – UNP, SLFP and the SLPP. Economic frustrations (expressed during the Aragalaya in 2022) and the anger against the political elite viewed as corrupt and inefficient are two significant factors for the new vote in 2024 in both elections. The change is visible even amongst the two minority communities – Tamils and Muslims. 

Fourth, the rise of new young leaders, especially Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Harini Amarasuriya, (and Sajith Premadasa). Anura Dissanayake’s rise is spectacular, from a rural area and being born to a farmer to become the President of Sri Lanka. Unlike the other prominent leaders of the present time, he does not belong to a political family. Harini Amarasuriya, the Prime Minister, was born to a planter and was an academic and activist. Sajith Premadasa is the only leader from the old guard to withstand the JVP tsunami in 2024. His party – the SJP, formed in 2020, has secured 17.6 per cent of the votes in the latest elections and has 40 seats in the Parliament now. 

What does it mean?
First, the vote for change means new expectations – economic and ethnic. If "security" following the Easter Sunday terror attacks was the primary reason behind the vote in the 2019 elections that brought the Rajapaksas to power in 2024, economic issues have played a major role in the current elections in bringing JVP to power. With the Tamils (in Jaffna district, the JVP has secured more votes than the ITAK) and the Muslims also voting for the JVP, 

Second, the new leadership and its responsibility. The political mantle has shifted from the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghes to the next generation. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Harini Amarasuriya and Sajith Premadasa – are young and in their 50s. While JVP has swept the elections across the island, Sajith Premadasa and his SJB have withstood the political tsunami by securing 17 plus per cent of the votes and 40 seats in the Parliament. The 2024 vote is for the new and the young leaders; the expectation is that they would provide better governance – economic and ethnic. 

Third, the positive vote in search for better governance. Irrespective of the debate that the JVP leadership is inexperienced, people have voted across the ethnic and religious divides because the demand is for better governance that would be corruption-free. The UNP-SLPP-SLFP-led political elite is seen as corrupt, hence the mandate for a new leadership. This is a positive mandate; the JVP should take bold and strict measures to address ethnic, economic and governance issues. 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Sachin Aravind, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta and Neha Tresa George

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Ocean salinity detection satellite launched
On 14 November, China successfully launched the Ocean-4 01 Satellite. The Ocean-4 01 is specialised for accurate salinity detection in the oceans. It was launched via the Long March-4B Y53 carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center. This scientific research satellite will enable the advanced capabilities of the country to focus on marine environmental monitoring, climate research, and precise soil moisture measurements. The CNSA highlighted that it will improve the precision of marine forecasts and meet other diverse sectors, such as agriculture, disaster mitigation and meteorology. 

China: Plans to further cooperation with Latin American countries 
On 13 November, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China will continue to improve unity and cooperation with Latin American countries. Lin Jian stated that Peruvian craftsman Oswaldo Mamani had a one-story workshop with annual sales of a minimum of 100 items. The workshop currently has three stories, and hundreds of craftsmen. Hinting at the benefit of China and America’s bilateral cooperation, Lin said: “China and Latin America have all along prioritized major livelihood projects in their cooperation. The list of uplifting and touching stories, such as that of warmpaca, goes on and on.” He additionally mentioned the electricity expressway Belo Monte UHV transmission project linking north and south of Brazil which has provided ample power to industrial hubs and resolved the power shortage problem for over 22 million Brazilians. 

China: Renegotiates duties on brandy and other alcohol with France
On 12 November, at the Shanghai Fair, France and China reopened negotiations on anti-dumping practices by Beijing on Europe’s brandy imports to counter the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EVs. French spirits lobby groups have welcomed Beijing’s decision to accept bank guarantees as an alternative to deposits on Cognac and Armagnac imports and stated it as “a positive initial reaction.” French Cognac producers stated that the probe on brandy launched in January is not a market-specific problem but part of a greater trade issue. 

China: Launches a Pavilion at COP29 
On 12 November, Global Times reported that on the opening day of China’s Pavilion launch at COP29, the country renewed its commitment to global climate action through a series of ten themed events throughout the conference. Vice Minister Zhao Yingmin stated that China is becoming an “essential participant, contributor, and leader in global ecological civilization.” Special Envoy Liu Zhenmin pointed out that climate change is one of the most important national strategies and displayed great achievements in green development. Liu requested developed countries to implement the funding commitments to support climate initiatives. The message presented by the delegation included China’s commitment to multilateralism and fair climate governance, in line with “common but differentiated responsibilities.” 

China: Strategic dialogue deepens after Russia's Security Council Secretary's visit 
On 11 November, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited China. He met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi. The 19th annual strategic security consultation will cover international security, regional stability, and bilateral cooperation. Expert Wang Xiaoquan stated that the agenda will include US security policies, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East conflicts, and non-traditional security concerns. As strategic comprehensive partners, both countries have been looking forward to promoting cooperation concerning global security. Shoigu will attend Airshow China 2024, where Russia will display its Su-57 fighter jet after a gathering in September in St Petersburg. Wang Yi emphasised that China looks forward to deepening bilateral strategic cooperation, demonstrating continued high-level mutual trust between the two countries despite changes in the global landscape

Taiwan: Discussion on procuring USD 15 billion military hardware with the new Trump administration
On 11 November, Taiwanese officials communicated with the new US administration about purchasing USD 15 billion worth of military hardware. The former US deputy assistant secretary of defence for strategy and force development, Elbridge Colby, compared Trump's approving eleven packages worth USD 21 billion, including F-16 jets and tanks to Taiwan and Biden’s administration approving USD seven billion. Additionally, the White House stated: “In the face of increasing Chinese military threats, Taiwan and its neighbors have continued to bolster their defence deterrence, demonstrating their determination to defend themselves on their own. There has been a period of consolidation and discussion between Taiwan and the United States on military needs, but there is no new stage of discussion at this time.” Furthermore, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence stated that the country’s ability to defend itself would be considered an option if any allied countries were provided with any weapon or gear.

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Japan: Ishiba’s cabinet resigns ahead of Diet voting
On 11 November, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his cabinet resigned en masse under Article 70 of the Constitution. He is expected to be re-elected by a Diet vote as head of the Liberal Democratic Party. Although the LDP-Komeito coalition failed to obtain a parliamentary majority during the 27 October election, Ishiba will likely win a runoff contest against opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda. Several potential key ministerial assignments for Ishiba’s new administration include Keisuke Suzuki as justice minister and Taku Eto as agriculture minister. Ishiba will share the administration’s policy objectives with the press and has indicated that he will secure bipartisan support to pass a fiscal 2024 supplementary budget. 

South Korea: The UK initiates third round of FTA upgrade talks
On 11 November, South Korea and the UK began the third round of talks to upgrade the bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) in response to changing world trade conditions. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy stated that the four-day talks will focus on services, supply chains, digital trade, and biotechnology. South Korea’s chief negotiator Kwon Hye-jin said: “Britain is our key partner and an economically in emerging sectors.” The FTA signed in August 2019 came into effect in January 2021 when the UK left the EU.

Nauru: Minister for Climate Change and National Resilience announces Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Programme at COP29
On 14 November, Nauru’s Minister for Climate Change and National Resilience, Asterio Appi, announced the Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Programme during his speech at COP29. The ministry stated: “The innovative financing initiative [offers] an opportunity for conscientious investors to acquire an additional citizenship while contributing to climate adaptation and sustainable development projects in the Pacific region.” The Pacific Islands News Association (PACNEWS) stated that the UN has continuously pressed that access to climate finance would be instrumental for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Additionally, Nauru's Economic and Climate Resilience Citizenship Programme Office director of compliance, Isa Seow, said: “The citizenship scheme demonstrates the island's resilience and innovation, pioneering a unique approach to citizenship that combines economic growth with environmental stewardship.” The program, according to Seow, will offer a “streamlined path to citizenship, with processing times of just three to four months.” Nauru’s President David Adeang stated that mitigating sustainability risks and enhancing climate resilience are influential due to investment migration mechanisms. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Indonesia: President Subianto visits China
On 09 November, Indonesia’s newly-elected President, Prabowo Subianto visited China. China’s President Xi Jinping and Subianto agreed to strengthen their bilateral relations. Prabowo chose China as the first foreign destination after winning the election and taking office. Xi and Prabowo signed multiple cooperation agreements on the blue economy, water conservancy, and minerals. Prabowo reiterated Indonesia’s support for the one-China policy and non-interference stance in Xinjiang affairs. He further declared that Indonesia would not join any military alliance against third parties and that the two countries would put efforts into promoting Asian values. 

Indonesia: President Subianto visits the US
On 12 November, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto met incumbent US President Joe Biden during his official visit to Washington. He congratulated President Donald Trump on his victory. During the meeting, he said: “I will work very hard to strengthen the Indonesian-United States relationship, and I would like to work towards this end that we have a strong cooperation.” Biden said that they discussed the issues related to “climate, conflict in the Middle East and South China Sea.” Subianto’s visit to the US followed his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Nepal: Prime Minister Oli says visit to China will not harm ties with India
On 14 November, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Oli Sharma stated that his visit to China would not harm ties with India while speaking at a Kantipur Conclave. Ahead of his visit to China in the first week of December, he commented that he would not visit India. He said: “We choose to go where it is convenient.” This statement comes as Sharma did not receive an invitation from India for his first port call. It has been a practice for newly elected prime ministers to visit India as their first stop when they embark on foreign trips.

Sri Lanka: Dissanayake's party wins general election
On 15 November, the National People's Party (NPP) coalition won the general elections. The NPP secured more than two-thirds of the parliament with 159 seats. The party garnered support from the ethnic Tamil and Muslim-dominated areas in the north and east parts of the country. This election marked the first time a single party emerged victorious under the proportional representation system.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Israel: Netanyahu contemplating “special committee” on 7 October instead of state inquiry 
On 12 November, The Times of Israel reported that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering the possibility of establishing a “special committee” to probe the government’s failures on 7 October 2023 because he wants to avoid the establishment of a state commission of inquiry, the highest level of government inquiry in Israel. The proposed committee would include a judge, members of Israel’s military, and representatives of victims’ families, all of whom would be appointed by agreement between the Likud-party-led ruling coalition and the opposition. Netanyahu is allegedly avoiding forming a state commission of inquiry because it would likely be headed by the former President of Israel’s Supreme Court, Esther Hayut, who was an ardent critic of Netanyahu’s 2023 policy of judicial reform. National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz criticised the proposal as a political ploy by Netanyahu, stating: “The worst disaster we faced since Israel’s founding cannot end with a window-dressing committee, and not in any other format that seeks to evade responsibility” and accusing the Likud Party leader of using “inventions and evasions.”

Israel: Knesset suspends Arab party member for “encouraging bloodshed” against troops
On 10 November, Israel’s Knesset Ethics Committee suspended Member of Knesset (MK) Ofer Cassif for six months. Cassie is a Jewish member of the Arab-majority Hadash-Ta’al party. The committee suspended him for “encouraging bloodshed against IDF soldiers and the State of Israel.” The Ethics Committee also found him guilty of “undermining the state’s ability to deal with legal challenges abroad,” citing Cassif’s support for South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Following his suspension, Cassif will not be allowed to enter the Knesset and participate in the proceedings of the legislature, except to exercise his vote. 

Saudi Arabia: Signs renewable energy deal with Central Asian countries
On 14 November, Saudi Arabia’s Minister for Energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, signed a joint executive programme agreement with the Central Asian countries of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku. The deal envisages cooperation between the signatories in green energy, including integration of renewable energy into the partners’ national power grids, infrastructure efficiency, renewable electricity generation, and storage. Saudi-based ACWA Power company will be executing the deal’s associated projects in the Central Asian countries. ACWA signed agreements with Uzbekistan to develop battery energy storage systems and with Azerbaijani, firms to develop offshore wind power projects in the Caspian Sea. 

Lebanon: Grand Mufti meets Saudi Ambassador
On 15 November, Lebanon’s Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian, the religious leader of Lebanon’s Sunni Muslims, met Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador in Beirut, Walid Bukhari. The Grand Muti briefed Bukhari on the stand taken by the Lebanon Islamic Supreme Council in the ongoing conflict. Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador reaffirmed Riyadh’s commitment to provide diplomatic and humanitarian assistance to facilitate Lebanon’s recovery. He highlighted the role of the King Salman Center in supporting war-affected individuals. Derian praised Saudi Arabia’s efforts to dispute Israel’s UN membership. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Somalia: Self-declared Somaliland conducts fourth general elections
On 13 November, the self-declared Somaliland region of Somalia conducted its fourth general election. The ruling Kulmiye Party seeks another win with incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi’s fifth term. The main opposition leader is Mohamed Abdullahi of the Somaliland National Party. The rising cost of living, international recognition of Somaliland, and territorial issues in Las Anod are major issues in this election. Although internationally the region is unrecognised, Somaliland has its government, parliament, currency, and passports.

Africa: Call for climate financing at COP29
On 15 November, Africanews reported on African countries calling on rich countries to pay for environmental damage during COP29. This year, the summit’s focus is climate financing. According to the UN, rising temperatures and sea levels are causing extreme weather patterns across Africa. The executive director of the Uganda National Environment Management Authority Barirega Akankwasah stated: “He who pollutes should meet the cost of clean up over the environment, should meet the cost of mitigation it should meet the cost of adaptation in that proportion because to pollute, people have made the money to pollute.” Many African representatives are expecting an agreement outlining damage funds. Akankwasah commented that the deal should “have fully operational loss and damage funds with clear criteria on how much and who contributes and the criteria for access and disbursement of these funds.”

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Denmark: Joins Artemis Accords to strengthen space exploration
On 13 November, Denmark signed the Artemis Accord and entered as the 48th signatory. According to NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, Denmark as a founding member of the European Space Agency had contributed to space explorations for several years. This included collaboration with NASA on Mars explorations. Nelson added that by signing the accord, Denmark can further its international cooperation in space. Minister of Higher Education and Science, Christina Egelund, commented on how Denmark aims to strengthen its strategic partnership with the US for both science and industry. According to him, the signing of the Accords aligned with its space research and boosted ties with the US to advance its scientific breakthroughs. 

The EU: Meeting between European leaders and India’s Adani on renewable energy initiatives
On 12 November, envoys from the EU, Belgium, Denmark and Germany visited Adani's Khavda and Mundra businesses. The discussion involved renewable energy initiatives and energy mix for a sustainable future for India. World’s largest renewable energy plant at Khavda acts as a centre for rapid global decarbonisation and India’s sustainable energy efforts. Spanning 538 square kilometers, on completion is expected to meet India’s energy needs through several renewable energy sources and help reduce dependency on conventional sources.

Germany: President Steinmeier approves the early election timeline
On 11 November, Deutsche Welle reported that Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier agreed to the early elections following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition. He said that the election timeline on 23 February was “realistic.” The President’s office stated: “The head of state welcomes the fact that the parliamentary groups have agreed on a roadmap towards a vote of confidence on December 16 and considers February 23, 2025, to be a realistic date for new elections.” Additionally, Steinmeier confirmed that he would dissolve the Parliament if Scholz failed to win the confidence vote. Besides, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) announced that it would prepone its national party conference to January rather than March after the elections.

France: MPs reject the proposed draft budget for 2025 over new taxes and fiscal battering
On 12 November, Le Monde reported on the rejection of the draft budget bill proposed by Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government. It was a heavily amended bill with new taxes by the opposition. There were 362 votes against the budget from the Assemblée Nationale. The Minister of Budget Laurent Saint-Martin said: “A majority of MPs rejects both fiscal battering and the impossibility of France living up to its European commitments.” The lawmakers altered Barnier’s earlier EUR 60 billion plan to correct the public finances with 40 billion in spending cuts and 20 billion in new tax receipts. The rejection would call for another revised budget. 

Peru: Inaugurates Chancay port
On 14 November, Peru’s Chancay mega port, majority-owned by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, was inaugurated. The USD 1.3 billion project promises to transform the town into a strategic Pacific hub connecting South American resources with Asian markets. While the government estimates to generate USD 3.5 billion from the 15 quays and an industrial park, locals are very concerned. Fishermen claim that this would impact the fishing grounds from dredging. Others worry about environmental impact and the changes in their society. The port is an example of China’s growing footprint in Latin America, with Xi emphasising it as a successful Belt and Road Initiative project that could “forge a new land-sea corridor between China and Latin America.”

About the Authors
D. Suba Chandran is Professor & Dean in School of Conflict and Security Studies at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Sachin Aravindan is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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