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CWA # 1554, 22 December 2024
The World This Week
Interim President in South Korea, China's record space walk and the New Chief Executive of Macau

  GP Team

The World This Week #290 Vol. 6 Nos. 44, 23 December 2024
 

C Shraddha, Nova Karun K and Vaishak Sreekumar

South Korea: An Interim President and an Impending Political Instability
C Shraddha

What happened?
On 14 December, the National Assembly decided to select Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as the interim President after impeaching President Yoon Suk Yeol for his attempt at imposing martial law. 

On 16 December, the Constitutional Court set 27 December as the first preparatory hearing of former President Yoon. After President Yoon refused to comply with the court proceedings, prosecutors sent him a second summons the same day. 

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the interim President. The National Assembly decided to impeach Mr Yoon for his failed attempt to impose martial law. The first attempt failed due to the ruling party boycotting; however, in the second attempt, the National Assembly passed the motion with a 204-85 majority. The interim President, Mr Han Duck-Soo, previously served as the Prime Minister, Minister of Economy and Finance and Deputy Prime Minister.

Second, the judiciary’s role in the next steps. After the declaration of the first preparatory hearing, the Constitutional Court has 180 days to decide whether to uphold the impeachment or to reinstate President Yoon. The court requires a minimum of six votes in favour of the motion to uphold the impeachment. The Constitutional bench, which usually consists of nine judges, now only has six judges due to delays in appointments. 

What does it mean?
First, instability facing South Korea. The impeachment of President Yoon and the absence of a permanent leadership will create political instability, causing it to be more susceptible to economic and military threats. In the financial market, the South Korean Stock Market (KOSPI) has been experiencing fluctuations since the martial law attempt. North Korea is likely to exploit the power vacuum and the absence of a permanent president in South Korea by escalating military actions. 

Second, the impeachment decision also depends on the appointment of judges. Without the full bench, the minimum vote requirement becomes uncertain.

China in Space: A Record Walk
Nova Karun K

What happened?
On 17 December, two Chinese astronauts completed a nine-hour six-minute spacewalk aboard the Tiangong space station. During the spacewalk they completed tasks such as the installation of space debris protection devices, inspection, and maintenance of external equipment.

What is the background?
First, the Shenzhou-19 mission and the record walk. The previous spacewalk record of close to nine hours was set by the US astronauts in March 2001. The latest record by the Chinese astronauts was nine hours and six minutes. The Shenzhou-19 mission began on 29 October 2024 and aimed to carry out 86 science and technology experiments to aid China’s future goal of landing a manned mission on the moon. The experiments to be conducted are in the fields of space life sciences, microgravity, physics, advanced materials and space medicine. 

Second, China’s Shenzhou program. The Shenzhou program is run by the CMSP, which began in 1999. Under the Shenzhou program, 19 missions have been completed. The spacewalk demonstrates China’s ability to do complex manoeuvres in space and technological advancement. The Extravehicular Activity (EVA) conducted by the Chinese astronauts aboard the Tiangong are crucial for installing and maintaining the solar panels and other external hardware. 
 
What does it mean? 
First, the latest development demonstrates China’s technical abilities. China aims to make Tiangong as an alternative to the International Space Station (ISS). It aims to include collaborative experiment projects with 17 countries from Asia, Africa and South America. This allows China to further its leadership goals and enhance South-South cooperation. 

Second, the Shenzhou missions furthering China’s space ambitions. The Shenzhou 19, is the 33rd mission under China’s human spaceflight program. By building its own Tiangong space station after exclusion from the International Space Station, China asserts its independence and commitment to long-term innovation.

Third, China in the space race. China envisions a crewed lunar landing by 2030 and these exercises are steps towards reaching these goals. The Shenzhou-19 is the latest part of the Shenzhou program by the China Manned Space Program (CMSP) to develop and enhance human spaceflight capabilities for China. China envisions establishing a lunar research station and expanding its scientific reach.

China: New Chief Executive in Macau
Vaishak Sreekumar

What happened?
On 18 December, President Xi Jinping arrived in the Special Administrative Region of Macau to participate in its 25th-anniversary celebration of the handover from Portuguese rule to the Chinese government in 1991.

On 20 December, President Xi inaugurated Macau's new government, with its new chief executive, Sam Hou Fei, and called for a greater diversification of the Macanese economy.

What is the background?
First, Macau as a Special Administrative Region. In December 1999, Portugal handed over Macau to China; ever since it has remained a Special Administrative Region (SAR) and a part of the "One Country, two systems" model. Unlike the neighbouring Hong Kong, Macau was not offered a guarantee of broader democratization in the Basic Law, its mini-constitution. 

Second, a brief on the chief executive of the Macau SAR. He is the head of government of Macau; the position replaced the erstwhile title of governor under Portuguese rule. According to the Basic Law of Macau, the chief executive is accountable to the Central People's Government and the local special administrative region. The office is the highest representative of Macau and the head of the executive in all local administrative affairs. 

Third, Macau as the World's largest gambling hub. Macau receives 81 per cent of its regional tax revenue from the casino industry, and per capita it has the wealthiest population in China. Even during Portuguese rule, gambling was legal in Macau; over time, it became a major commercial center for China, causing large migrations from the mainland. Since Xi Jinping took office in 2013, he has made calls for diversifying the region's economy away from gambling. The new Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, shares this mandate and will be the first city leader to be born and raised in mainland China. 

Fourth, Macau’s dependence on Beijing.  Macau needs the support from Beijing; it has little space to build new industries and housing; major source of government revenue is Casinos. Lack of mainland tourists following COVID-19 has further affected the local economy. 

What does it mean?
First, the future of Macau and Beijing’s hold. The selection of Sam Hou Fei as the new Chief Executive over someone from the business community shows a declining influence from the business circles. A new law introduced early this year had all nominees and the selection committee "Pledging allegiance to the Macao SAR." With nearly half of its current population being immigrants from the mainland, Macau often does not resist the influence held by the central government in its political and economic systems, unlike Hong Kong, which was rocked by pro-democracy protests until 2020. With closer ties with a new development Hengqin City, Macau is likely to be subject to further Chinese regulations.

Second, the importance of Macau for China. Beijing also needs Macau. The town is a very popular domestic tourist destination. With its multicultural roots through Portuguese rule, Macau is seen as a great ambassador of China to the rest of the world. It is also a place where China can recruit talent from outside the country and develop a somewhat multicultural workforce. 

Third, the future of Macau's economy. Although the top leadership, including Sam Hou Fei, campaigned for a diversified economy, it will take years to achieve as the economy is deeply entrenched in gambling. Macau requires large public and private investments before it can substantially contribute to the economy.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George, C Shraddha, Nova Karun K and Vaishak Sreekumar

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Policy towards ROK will remain consistent
On 16 December, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China will remain consistent with its policies towards the Republic of Korea amidst the passing of the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-Yeol. Perceiving the impeachment as a domestic issue, Lin refused to comment on it while ensuring continued cooperation between the two countries. South Korea’s Constitutional Court released 27 December as the date for the first preparatory hearing of the parliamentary impeachment of President Yoon, despite the absence of 3 judges. 

Satellites under GuoWang Project declared successful
On 16 December, China launched a group of low-orbit internet satellites into the preset orbits through the Long March-5B/Yuanzheng-2 upper stage from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in South China’s Hainan Province. The mission was declared successful after the satellites entered into the predetermined orbit, marking it the 552nd flight of the Long March rocket family. The 13,000 mega constellation satellite intends to provide global broadband internet coverage, intensifying the domestic and international race for space-based broadband. The GuoWang project, managed by the China Satellite Network Group Co Ltd, is perceived as China’s answer to SpaceX’s Starlink

China: English language loses its importance 
On 12 December , The Economist reported a significant decline in the interest of Chinese citizens in learning English during the post-COVID period.  While China ranked 38th out of 100 in English proficiency four years ago, now the country is 91st amongst 116 countries, according to the Education First rankings. The decline in interest can be attributed to the closing of borders during the pandemic and the decline in diplomatic relations between the country and its English-speaking counterparts such as America, Britain, Australia and Canada. Even school administrators and legislators have proposed to limit the weightage given to the language in university-entrance exams while promoting traditional Chinese subjects. While other countries opened their borders post-pandemic, China remained close, with fewer people travelling abroad.

China: Foreign firms face decline in Chinese markets
On 9 December, The Economist reported that foreign firms are facing shrinking sales, and loss in revenue in the Chinese market, along with facing serious competition from the local Chinese rivals. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) which is controlled by The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) claims that “90% of foreign companies rate their experience in China as satisfactory or better.” However The Economist presents a different perspective, one which says that most of the executives of these foreign companies disagree with the statement of the CCPIT and many struggle to justify investing in the country and look forward to cutting down staff. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, in a recent survey revealed that only less than half of the respondents were optimistic about the next five years in the country. Companies like General Motors(GM), an American carmaker, Apple, a tech giant, and Volkswagen, a carmaker,  Starbucks, a coffee chain, and LVMH, a luxury conglomerate are all facing intense domestic competition and decrease in sales. Chinese competitors like Luckin Coffee, Huawei, BYD, NIO all offer significant competition in their respective fields. China’s economic stagnation, one of the main reasons being the housing crisis which plummeted the property prices, has reduced the total revenue of the western companies to 650 billion USD. 

China increases visa-free travel for 54 countries
On 17 December, China’s National Immigration Administration (NIA) announced that they will offer 10 days of visa-free transit for international travellers from 54 countries including Australia, Japan, the United States and countries throughout Europe. NIA spokesman Mao Xu said that the changes will “improve the convenience of entry … and attract more foreigners to travel, do business, visit and exchange with China” and he added that they will continue to open up its immigration management. The policy is expected to be implemented immediately and eligible passport holders can obtain visa-free transit for tourism, business or visiting family members, however visas will be required for work, study, or media interviews. Twenty-one ports of entry and exit have been added, bringing the total number to 60, and travellers are allowed to stay in 24 provincial regions during transit with five new regions added.

China: Plans to increase budget deficits by 2025
On 17 December, Reuters reported the proposed plan of Chinese leaders to increase budget deficits to 4 per cent of GDP in 2025 while maintaining an economic target of approximately 5 per cent. These targets were agreed upon after last week’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) and December’s Politburo meeting. These measures could be perceived as preparatory actions against the 60 per cent US tariff on Chinese imports as proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump. The marginal increase of budget deficits is equated to approximately USD 179.4 million, with additional stimulus expected to be funded by issuing off-budget special bonds.

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
South Korea: President Yook Suk Yeol’s first preparatory hearing fixed on 27 December
On 16 December, the Constitutional Court announced 27 December as the first preparatory hearing of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s parliamentary impeachment. The court announced the decision during the meeting of the justices, held to discuss the proceedings and dates of the high-stakes hearing. The preparatory hearing is scheduled at 1400 hours on 27 December, and the subsequent hearing will be open to the public, though Yoon is not required to attend the first session. The constitutional court has 180 days to decide whether to uphold the impeachment or reinstate Yoon. The identity of the lead justice, selected through an electronic draw, has been kept confidential, stating it as a “decision of the justices.”. To provide the justices with relevant details and facts, the court has set up a task force of 10 court officials. If the court decides to impeach Yoon, he will officially become the second president to be ousted in Korean history after former President Park Geun-hye.

Japan: Space One fails again to place a satellite in oribit
On 18 December, the Japan Times reported on the second time failure of the Tokyo-based startup Space One’s attempt to place a satellite into orbit. The Kairos No 2, an 18-meter and 23-ton solid fuel rocket, was launched from the newly established space station in Kushimoto, Wakayama Prefecture. Kairos rockets are the first Japanese rocket to have an “autonomous flight safety system.” The startup’s first attempt failed after the rocket burst into flames while the Kairos No 2 malfunctioned during the ascent. 

Japan: Honda and Nissan eyeing for a merger
On 18 December, the Japan Times reported a potential merger of the carmaker giants Honda and Nissan. The Executive Vice President of Honda, Shinji Aoyama, stated that Honda is considering a few alternatives, including a merger, a holding company or a capital tie-up. Talks about expanding the transaction to Mitsubishi Motors are also underway. This potential merger would bifurcate the Japanese motor industry into Toyota group companies and another faction under Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi. Following the reports, Nissan’s stock rose to 24 per cent, while Honda’s stock fell by 3.4 per cent. 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Thailand: Foreign Minister calls for an inclusive election in Myanmar
On 20 December, The Straits Times reported on the statements of Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa on behalf of ASEAN over the Myanmar elections in 2025. He stated that the scheduled elections should be inclusive with all the stakeholders. He expressed the common position of the ASEAN over the elections. Recently, Myanmar’s Foreign Minister Than Swe explained military’s progress in conducting the elections. However, he added that the neighboring countries should “advise and not interfere.” He added that their support would also aid Myanmar’s peace plan. 

Thailand: Bans plastic waste imports from 2025
On 18 December, Thailand ratified a law which bans the imports of plastic waste that are used as raw materials for industries and factories. It will come into effect from 01 January 2025. The law prevents importers from bringing plastic into the country. It was proposed by the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry. It involves an amendment to a provision of Thailand’s Tariff Schedule which allows the imports of waste, parings and plastic scraps. The move follows the Cabinet resolution of 2023, which allows the agencies to take necessary steps to protect their environment and regulate the use of plastics. The agencies were also asked to encourage recycling of plastics.

Indonesia: PDI-P expels former President Joko Widodo
On 17 December, The Straits Times reported on the dismissal of Indonesia’s former President Joko Widodo from the party. The chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Megawati Soekarnoputri, decided to expel him along with his eldest son and son-in-law. Two dozen party members were also dismissed. The dismissal came after he backed the current President Prabowo Subianto in the Presidential elections. 

Sri Lanka: Deal struck with IMF
On 18 December, President Anura Dissanayake announced that the government was able to strike a deal with the International Monetary Fund during a parliamentary session. He stated that the IMF  has agreed to raise the tax threshold during the third review of its loan programme. This development comes as concerns have been raised by professionals, including doctors, engineers, and bank managers, regarding the tax threshold. Hence, the threshold for exemption of tax will be raised to “an income of SLR 1,50,000 per month” which was previously SLR 1,00,000.

Bangladesh: Ties with Pakistan rekindle
On 19 December, Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif and Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus met on the sidelines of the D-8 Summit. At the meeting, both the dignitaries spoke on mutual interests shared by their countries. The Chief adviser also called upon the Sharif administration to “settle issues” as old as 1971 to “move forward. Sharif praised Yunus for taking initiative in reviving SAARC, the latter stated that it “it is a top priority.” 

India: US imposes sanctions on petroleum carriers
On 19 December, the US State Department announced that it hasimposed sanctions on India’s Atlantic Navigation OPC Private Limited for its involvement in the trade of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals. The sanctions have been imposed on three vessels and four other entities as they were found to assist the Iranian regime generate a large volume of revenue. According to the Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, the Islamic Republic “continues to rely on its shadowy network of vessels, companies and facilitators to finance the development of its nuclear programme, the proliferation of its weapons systems and support to its proxies.”

Pakistan: Pakistan earns USD 729 million current account surplus
On 17 December, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed his satisfaction over Pakistan earning a current account surplus of USD 729 million. This surplus in November marks the highest earnings since 2015. It also marks a consistent improvement in the current account surplus for the third consecutive month. According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the present fiscal surplus stands at USD 944 million in the first five months, a progress from the previous year’s deficit of USD 1.68 billion, during the same period. According to the director of research at AKD Securities Limited, Awais Ashraf, this development comes amid improvement in the reduction of “trade and services deficit as well as a cut in the monetary rate and the return of dividends in November.” It also follows the investigation of the unofficial transfers of foreign currency. Additionally, during a monetary committee meeting of the SBP, it was predicted that the current account deficit is set to be within the 0-1 percent range of the fiscal 2025 GDP. The Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb expects the remittances to hit a record of USD 35 million in the present year.
 
Pakistan: PM Sharif and President Zardari call for increased cooperation with UAE
On 17 December, President Asif Ali Zardari, PM Shehbaz Sharif, UAE’s Ambassador to Pakistan Hamad Obaid Ibrahim Salem Al-Zaabi and several government and diplomat officials attended the UAE 53rd National Day celebrations in Islamabad. At the event, President Zardari stated that Pakistan wants to further increase bilateral collaboration with the UAE in the “IT, renewable energy, agriculture and tourism” sectors. He called the entrepreneurs from UAE to look into the options provided by the country’s economy such as in the Pakistan Stock Exchange and “renewable energy. President Zardari also pointed out that the bilateral ties between the two countries have grown into “trustworthy strategic partnership” which includes “political, economic and social dimensions.”  At the event, PM Sharif also expressed optimism regarding the growth in bilateral relations between the two countries. PM Sharif stated that celebrations serve as a testimony to “Pakistan’s support for territorial integrity and solidarity of UAE.” He also thanked the UAE for assisting Pakistan in difficult times and stated that the current International Monetary Fund programme had been made possible only with the help from the UAE.
 
Pakistan: PM Sharif authorizes probe into migrant boat tragedy near Greece
On 18 December, while presiding a cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed relevant authorities to crackdown on human traffickers. This order comes after five migrants of Pakistani nationality drowned after a boat capsized near Greece. He also instructed the Integrated Border Management System to surveil international travelers and asked the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and the foreign ministry to produce reports on human trafficking incidents that have involved Pakistan. He underscored the need to “enhance collaboration with international institutions to prevent the recurrence of such” episodes. Moreover, on 17 December, the FIA registered four individuals suspected of human trafficking while two suspects hailing from Gujrat and Sialkot have reportedly been detained. On 19 December, a report from the Pakistan Embassy in Athens confirmed that out of more than 40 Pakistanis who were in the migrant boat, only five bodies were recovered while the remaining 35 have gone missing. The report further stated that search operations have been called off and the missing persons will be considered dead.
 
Pakistan: Polio cases surge to 64
On 18 December, another case of polio was detected with which the total number of cases in the country reached 64 in 2024. The case was identified from Jacobabad in Sindh. This is the fourth victim of polio from Jacobabad identified this year. The total number of polio cases in Sindh has now risen to 18. The maximum number of polio cases in 2024 have been reported from Balochistan which stands at 26. 18 cases have been reported from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Islamabad and Punjab have reported one case each.

Pakistan: New Gwadar International Airport to be operational from 30 December
On 19 December, The News International reported on the inauguration of the New Gwadar International Airport. As per the instructions of PM Shehbaz Sharif, the airport in Gwadar is set to start functioning from 30 December. It was reported that Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) will set off its first commercial flight from this airport. Concluding arrangements are presently being done with the PIA and the Airports Authority to tackle “operational” issues It is anticipated that once the airport is operational, it will lead to a spike in “trade and tourism” in the area. For the year 2025, PIA is not required to pay any charges to the airport. This has been decided to ensure “operational stability.” Gwadar airport which has been built with USD 246 million worth of Chinese assistance has a huge runway and state of the art “terminal building.” The airport, thus, has the capacity to handle large airplanes.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Syria: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani addresses Arab and Gulf States in Interview
On 20 December, the leader of Syria’s interim Salvation Government, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, gave an interview to the Arab Ashraq Al-Awsat news network. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader expressed admiration for the Gulf countries’ developmental record, especially Saudi Arabia’s futuristic Vision 2030, stating, “We aspire to achieve similar progress for Syria. There are many opportunities for cooperation, especially in economic and developmental areas, where we can align our goals.” Assuaging the fears of the Arab and Gulf monarchies, the Syrian leader stated that his “revolution ended with the (Assad) regime's fall, and we will not allow it to spread elsewhere,” stressing that Syria’s territory would not be used to “attack or destabilize” any Arab or Gulf state. Furthermore, Al-Sharaa appealed to the anti-Iran sentiment among Arab and Gulf leaders, stating that Assad’s removal “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years. Syria had become a platform for Iran to control key Arab capitals, spread wars, and destabilize the Gulf.” Al-Sharaa hailed the HTS for successfully “closing Syria to Iranian influence.” When asked how he would govern Syria, he emphasised the importance of resolving differences through law and legal experts, the importance of state building, and his efforts to set up a ministry to locate those political killings and disappearances under Assad’s rule.

Syria: UNSC releases Press Statement 
On 17 December, the UN Security Council (UNSC) released a press statement on the political situation in Syria. The statement, issued by the UNSC’s current President, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, urged all member states to participate towards implementing an “inclusive and Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.” This process, it was stated, would be based on the UNSC Resolution 2254 (2015), which “stressed” that Syria’s people and the “broadest possible spectrum of opposition, chosen by Syrians” would decide the country’s future. Re-emphasizing Resolution 2254, the Security Council recognized that Syria’s new political process should fulfil the test of meeting the “legitimate aspirations of all Syrians, protecting all of them and enabling them to peacefully, independently and democratically” determine the future. Echoing the 2015 resolution, the Council reiterated support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, urging its neighbors and external powers to refrain from interfering with the same. Additionally, the UNSC reiterated its support for countering terrorism in the country, invoking resolutions 1267 (1999), 1989 (2011) and 2253 (2015) and emphasizing the need to prevent Islamic State of Iraq and Levant from reconstituting its capabilities. Referring to the risk of chemical weapons, the statement emphasized Syria’s obligations to abide by UNSC resolutions and international efforts regarding “non-conventional weapons.” Furthermore, the UNSC underscored the need for humanitarian support and the role of UN peacekeepers, especially the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNODF). Finally, the UNSC made a tacit reference to Israel’s invasion of the Golan Heights, calling for “respect of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement,” which Israel and Syria signed after the Yom Kippur War (1973), but Israel declared “void” after Assad’s ouster.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Benin: Citizenship to slave descendants
On 16 December, Africanews reported on a new law in Benin, passed in September, granting citizenship to people who have lineage to the slave trade. The law was initiated by President Patrice Talon. People over 18, having no citizenship to any African countries and can prove that their ancestors were traded as slaves in sub-Saharan Africa, will be benefited with  this law. Meanwhile, Benin is not the first country to grant citizenship to victims of slave trade. In 2019, Ghana invited 524 African Americans to “come home,” on the 400th anniversary of the arrival of first enslaved Africans in North America. 

Mauritius: Counterproposals on Chagos Island handover by the UK
On 19 December, the UK government announced that it still plans to hand over the contested Chagos Island in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius. The announcement came as a response to Mauritius’ new Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam’s “counterproposals” stating that the current deal “would not produce the benefits that the nation could expect from such an agreement.” In October, the UK and Mauritius announced an agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. However, according to the deal, the UK-US naval base in Diego Garcia would remain under the control of the UK for the next 99 years.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Germany: Snap elections to be held as Scholz loses vote of confidence
On 16 December, Bundestag, the parliament of the German Federation, passed a no-confidence motion against Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany. Thus, Olaf Scholz is no longer the chancellor of the German Federation. However, he is the acting head of state as the country until the next government is formed will remain active on an international level. New elections will be held in February and there will be a gap between the announcement of the elections and the formation of a new government. According to the latest survey, opposition’s candidate Friedrich Merz, from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, is ten points ahead of Scholz. Polls suggest that CDU has 32 per cent of the vote share. Meanwhile, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is ahead of Socialist Democratic Party, the party Scholz belongs to. On 17 December, Scholz visited Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the President of the German Federation, to propose dissolution of the Bundestag. 394 members voted against the government, 207 voted in favour and 116 abstained.

France: François Bayrou named as the new PM
On 14 December, Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic of France, named the new Prime Minister, François Bayrou. When Macron took the Presidential office in 2017, Bayrou was named the Justice Minister. In February 2024, he was also acquitted from a case of fraudulent employment of parliamentary assistants by his party. The judge ruled that he  owed the “benefit of the doubt.” Bayrou would be the sixth Prime Minister under Macron’s presidency. It is a critical time for France as its parliament has been without a government for almost 100 days. Bayrou has worked with former Presidents Valery Giscard d'Estaing and Jacques Chirac.. He also stood for the Presidential elections in 2002. However, he managed to win less than seven per cent of votes and was eliminated in the first round itself.

France: National Assembly approves special law to maintain core functions
On 17 December, the National Assembly of the Republic of France approved a special law aimed to maintain core state functions and prevent any interruption of public services. The French constitution allows the lower house to pass a special law in the parliament that rolls over the tax-raising and spending provisions in the current budget to ensure there is no government shutdown in the absence of a proper budget bill. The law comes after Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic of France, named Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister. The Senate, upper house of the parliament, will approve the law to ensure functioning.

About the Authors
C Shraddha, Nova Karun K and Vaishak Sreekumaris are Research Interns at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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