The World This Week

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CWA # 1565, 15 January 2025
The World This Week
South Korea’s Political Crisis and Biden’s rejection of Nippon Steel deal.

  GP Team

C Shraddha and Nova Karun K
The World This Week #292&293 Vol. 6 Nos. 46 & 47, 12 January 2025

C Shraddha and Nova Karun K

South Korea: Impediments in arresting the former President 
C.Shraddha

What happened?
On 7 January, the Seoul Western District Court approved the request to extend the warrant of the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) as impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol continues to evade arrest and remain at his residence. The Corruption Investigation Office could not serve Yoon with an arrest warrant due to the Presidential Security Service’s blockade. 

What is the background?
First, the legal procedures impeding arrest. Under the South Korean Criminal Procedure Act, the execution of an arrest warrant requires the enforcement officials to present the warrant to the individual being arrested physically. This is to ensure the authenticity of the warrant and the protection of individual rights. However, this procedural requirement has enabled former President Yoon Suk Yeol to evade arrest as the Corruption Investigation Office has been unable to deliver the warrant in person. The CIO approached the Seoul Western District Court to provide an extension to the court warrant. Initially, the court had issued two distinct warrants: one to arrest Yoon and a separate warrant to search his residency after he defied three summons ordering him to appear for questioning. 

Second, the blockade by the Presidential Protective Services and protestors. The blockade formed by pro-Yoon supporters and the Presidential Protective Services have hindered the arrest procedure. On 03 January, the South Korean police forces' attempt to arrest Yoon proved futile when the Presidential Security Service formed a human chain for six hours, preventing the access of the anticorruption investigators. Although 150 officers gathered around Yoon's residence in Seoul, they were quickly outnumbered by the 1200 supporters of the former President, citizens and People Power Party legislators. According to CIO officials, three officers who attempted to breach the human wall were met with Mr Yoon's lawyers, who rejected the validity of the warrant by deeming it unconstitutional. The same day, around 1.30 pm, the Corruption Investigation Office had to withdraw the forces, citing concerns of personnel safety and escalating violence.

According to the Chief of Security Services, Park Jong-Joon, the primary mission of the Presidential Security Service is to safeguard the President. Thus, complying with the execution of the arrest warrant would contradict their responsibility. The PSS considers Yoon Suk-yeol a sitting president until the constitutional court rules on his impeachment. The appointment of the PSS Chief by the former president is a possible reason for the “unconditional loyalty” depicted by the service towards Yoon rather than the office. PSS Chief Park Jong-joon and Deputy Chief Kim Seong-hoon have been added as suspects in a criminal case for obstruction of official duty; the South Korean Police have issued a summons for their questioning. Both have refused to appear. 

Third, the opposition’s backlash. The opposition has called for actions against the acting President and PSS. On 07 January, the Democratic Party filed a complaint with the National Office of Investigation against acting President Choi Sang-mook. The Legislators cited President Choi's apathy in addressing the actions of the Presidential Protective Service as the underlying reason. The Democratic Party has also called for the dissolution of the Presidential Security Service. 
 
What does it mean? 
First, the continuation of protests. Despite harsh weather conditions, pro and anti-Yoon supporters have continued their demonstrations. “Stop the Steal” slogans and flags of the United States have been a new addition to the protest environment in South Korea. 

Second, Yoon and PPP are gaining popularity. The inability of the forces to arrest Yoon and the decline in public opinion against the imposition of martial law are likely to favour the PPP in the next presidential election. Over the past month, PPP’s approval rating has increased from 24 per cent to 34 per cent. Additionally, a Gallup Korea survey noted that, now, only 64 per cent of respondents supported Yoon’s removal from office compared to the previous 75 per cent.

The US: President blocks Nippon Steel deal with US Steel
Nova Karun K

What happened?
On 3 January, US President Joe Biden blocked the USD 14.9 billion merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC) by an executive order. According to a statement by Biden; “this acquisition would place one of America’s largest steel producers under foreign control and create risk for our national security and our critical supply chains.” He also added “steel powers our country: our infrastructure, our auto industry, and our defense industrial base.”

On 6 January, the two companies decided to sue the US government over its unlawful decision stating political corruption. The companies filed two suits, one at the US Court of Appeals for the District Court of Columbia Circuit and the other at the US District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania. The suit filed at the Court of Appeals was challenging the decision taken by Biden on national security reasons. The companies argued that they were denied constitutional guarantee of due process, and structural procedural requirements. The second suit alleged that Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Gonclaves and USW President David McCall had engaged in illegal and coordinated action to prevent the deal and defame the company. 

What is the background?
First, the background of US Steel and Nippon Steel. Nippon Steel is Japan’s largest steelmaker, with a global presence in 15 countries, including China, the US, and India. US Steel is the second largest steelmaker founded in 1901. Its legacy is crumbling due to lack of modernisation and advancement of technologies. The merger would have enabled the dying US Steel to come back with foreign investments and made the NSC the third largest Steelmaker in the world.

Second, the deal and its opposition. Trump, in a rare occurrence, agreed with Biden’s decision to oppose the merger and stated that he would also do the same. USW President David McFall had also been against the merger by a foreign company It was also reported that Cleveland-Cliff CEO Lourenco Gonclaves was also calling up investors before Biden rejected the deal and informing them that the deal was doomed and asked them not to invest in it. The NSC was also besmirched, alleging they didn't have the best interests of the US in mind, conducted unfair practices and did not have the monetary strength to buy the company fully. Biden blocked the deal stating that acquisition would infringe on US national security goals. He also added that it was imperative that a major company be operated and owned domestically and that even a close ally was to be seriously scrutinised. He also mentioned that the proposed deal would endanger the steel supply of the US and thus become a national security issue. 

Third, the support for the deal. US Steel had warned that if the deal did not go through, a lot of mills would close down and thousands of jobs would be at risk. Members of Congress and other policy think tanks also criticised the decision, saying that it would cost investment in the US. The current Shigeru Ishiba government has fully supported the Nippon Steel company in any of its decisions. The Japanese government stated that if the US saw its allies in a transactional nature, then the future of their bilateral relations would also be under scrutiny. 

What does it mean?
Much would depend on how the courts respond to the suit. It will have domestic and external implications. If the deal is blocked, it would set a precedent that the US does not welcome foreign investments and that its relationship with its allies is transactional in nature. It would negatively impact trade with the Japanese and also cause strain on the steel industry in the US, leading to economic repercussions and job losses. If Nippon Steel’s merger is called off, another domestic company like Cleveland-Cliffs could sweep in and steal the deal. This would strengthen America's idea of strengthening its own industry without the help of foreign firms but would instead create a monopolistic company which could raise prices and not be able to compete against China’s advancements into the steel market. 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Rohini Reenum, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Amina, Sayeka Ghosh, Ayan Datta, Neha Tresa George, C Shraddha, Nova Karun K and Vaishak Sreekumar

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Yuan reaches 16-month low
On 6 January, China’s yuan reached a 16-month low against the dollar. 1 USD is now equivalent to 7.33 Yuan. According to Barclays, Yuan might witness a sharper decline if President-elect Donald Trump implements the 60% trade tariff on China. The efforts of the prominent state-owned banks of China to slow the pace of yuan decline by selling dollars in foreign spot markets remained unfruitful. 

China: High-Speed CENI Network to Fuel AI Innovation
On 2 January, China has unveiled its cutting-edge CENI (China Environment for Network Innovations) network, which promises to accelerate AI development with high-speed, reliable, and high-capacity data services. It combines optical communication with deterministic networking, achieving zero packet loss. CENI spans 13,000 km across 13 provinces in China, enabling industrial internet applications and AI model training in alignment with the country's "Eastern Data, Western Computing" strategy. Its capabilities are compared to a high-speed rail for computers, ensuring fast, accurate, and timely data transmission even in conditions of congestion or cyberattacks. This is further supplemented by 400G bandwidth and 100,000 petaflops in computational power. 

Volkswagen and XPENG to build Superfast charging networks
On 06 January, Global Times reported that Volkswagen Group China and XPENG, a major Chinese EV manufacturer, will jointly build China's largest superfast charging EV networks. This collaboration is expected to strengthen Volkswagen's competitiveness in the Chinese market and help the company employ similar models in Germany and Europe. This collaboration is the latest in a series of partnerships between international manufacturers and Chinese EV brands. China holds immense potential for vehicle consumption. According to the China Passenger Car Association, China's New Energy Vehicle consumption accounted for almost 70 percent of the world's total in 2024. The Xinhua news agency reported that China had been the global front-runner in new-energy vehicle sales and production for nine consecutive years, from 2015 to 2023.

China: conducts first winter survey of Bohai Sea Ice
On 4 January, a Chinese icebreaker, owned by Sun Yat-sen University, has set out on the country's first winter survey of the Bohai Sea's ice zone. The mission, led by 45 researchers from 12 institutions, aims to study the environmental and ecological effects of rapid ice changes in the region. It will focus on sea ice formation and melting and how these processes affect  aquatic ecosystems. The research vessel, Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di (SYU Polar), is China's only university-owned icebreaker; it has specifically been upgraded to gather atmospheric data and explore the deep sea in this region.

China: Ideology Chief urges greater promotion of economic achievements
On 6 January, China’s top ideology official, Cai Qi, called on propaganda chiefs to promote the country's economic successes more vigorously, amid recent criticism of the nation's economic performance. He said it was important to keep public optimism at a proper level and not overpromise anything. He urged greater coordination with the government's economic story, which touts a 5% growth rate for 2024. The government has increased stimulus policies while muzzling critics of the economy, including some well-known economists like Ren Zeping, Gao Shanwen, and Fu Peng

China dismisses India’s environmental concerns over Tsangpo river dam
On 5 January, the Times of India reported that India raised concerns over China constructing mega hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. The construction cost of the dam is around 137 billion dollars. India was concerned about the environmental effects and other impacts it would have on the lower riparian countries like Bangladesh. The US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is expected to discuss this issue on his visit to India on 05 and 06 January. A senior US official added that many dams created by the Chinese in the Indo-Pacific can have damaging environmental and climate change impacts on lower riparian countries. However, on 4 January, the Chinese embassy spokesperson Yu Jing said “The project has no negative impact on the lower reaches, and China will continue to maintain communication with countries at the lower reaches through existing channels, and step up cooperation on disaster prevention and relief for the benefit of the people by the river." 

China claims transparency in Covid-19 data sharing
On 31 December, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, stated that China has always upheld the spirit of scientific cooperation and transparency in COVID-19 data sharing. This statement was in response to the World Health Organisation's request for COVID-19 data access. Furthermore, Ning pointed out that China is the only country that has hosted the WHO expert group for COVID-19 origin tracing. During the routine press briefing, Ning highlighted China's prompt response in sharing information about the pandemic along with measures of diagnosis, prevention, control and treatment without hesitation

HVMP virus detected in China
On 03 January, The Economic Times reported the spread of Human Metapneumovirus (HVMP) along with Influenza A, COVID-19 and Mycoplasma pneumoniae in China. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported an increase in the spread of the virus among those aged 14 and below. Reportedly, the virus causes respiratory illness while exhibiting symptoms of fever, cough and nasal congestion. Deemed as a communicable disease, transmission occurs through person-to-person contact and respiratory droplets. Neither World Health Organization nor Chinese health officials have declared a state of emergency

Southeast University unveils China's first distributed flying vehicle
On 2 January, Global Times reported that a research team at Southeast University, Jiangsu province, unveiled China's first distributed electric-driven flying car. It features all-wheel drive and full steering capabilities. According to the university, the "Southeast University Kunpeng No.1" uses a car as the primary carrier, unlike traditional vertical take-off and landing aircraft that combine the movement capabilities of aerial vehicles. The vehicle has a maximum take-off limit of 500 kg and a flight endurance of at least 20 minutes. 

UK Lawmakers Summon e-commerce players SHEIN and Temu Over Labour Practices
On 2 January, Reuters reported that the UK Business and Trade Committee will question e-commerce players Shein and Temu on January 7 regarding labour practices in their supply chains. The inquiry, launched in October, examines employment rights and allegations of forced labour in factories supplying the companies. Low-cost fashion and gadgets sold by Shein, which was founded in China and headquartered in Singapore, and Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, come under a lens over worker conditions. Shein seeks regulatory approval for a London Intial Public Offering (IPO) despite UK officials expressing their concerns. Evidence will be given by representatives of UK’s McDonalds, Tesco, and the Department for Business and Trade. Both companies claimed zero-tolerance policies on forced labour but did not comment on the issue

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
South Korea: Court re-issues arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol
On 07 January, a South Korean court re-issued an arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol over the declaration of martial law on 03 December. The Seoul Western District Court approved the second warrant. The re-issuing of the arrest warrant is followed by the expiration of the first warrant. Investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials would work closely with police to detain Yoon. This is after their initial attempt failed due to a standoff with the presidential security service. Yoon is under investigation for alleged insurrection and abuse of power. He has ignored three previous summons. 

South Korea: Interim President holds talks with Prime Minister of Czech Republic 
On 08 January, South Korea’s Acting President Choi Sang-mok held a phone call with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala where they discussed improving bilateral collaboration and celebrated 35 years of diplomatic relations. Choi highlighted the importance of continued cooperation across various sectors, including a major power plant project. In July 2024, a South Korean consortium led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. was selected as the preferred bidder to construct two reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic. Fiala expressed confidence in South Korea’s democratic resilience despite political challenges and reaffirmed his hope for strengthening the countries’ friendly and cooperative ties in the year ahead.

Japan: PM Ishiba visits Malaysia and Indonesia
On 09 January, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba embarked on a four-day trip to Malaysia and Indonesia to focus on deepening economic and security partnerships. This marks Ishiba’s first overseas visit dedicated to bilateral summits since taking office in October. Before departing, Ishiba emphasised Southeast Asia’s strategic importance. He said: “We are placing more importance than ever on our relations with Southeast Asia when the global environment is increasingly becoming uncertain.” In Malaysia, Ishiba is set to meet Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to discuss security collaboration and stable supply chains. While in Indonesia, Ishiba and President Prabowo Subianto are expected to agree on Japan providing high-speed patrol boats. This is to further defence ties under Japan’s initiative to support like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific region.

Japan: Biden administration to block Nippon Steel’s USD 14.1 billion acquisition bid for US Steel
On 03 January, US President Joe Biden decided to block Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel's proposed USD 14.1 billion acquisition of US Steel. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States failed to reach an agreement on the deal announced in December 2023. Both Biden and President-elect Trump have expressed opposition to the takeover. If blocked, Nippon Steel could face a USD 565 million contract penalty and may pursue legal action. The Japanese company had pledged to keep US Steel as a domestic entity with a majority of American board members and maintain output levels for a decade. While shareholders and some workers supported the deal, it became a contentious political issue ahead of November's presidential election. 

North Korea: Kim Jong-un sends New Year letter to Putin
On 31 December, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un's New Year letter to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin hailed him as his “closest friend and comrade.” This highlighted North Korea’s strengthening alliance with Russia while its relationship with China showed signs of strain., Despite 2024 being designated as the China-North Korea Friendship Year, celebrations have been notably absent beyond an April opening ceremony. The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security predicted continued tension in China-North Korea relations through 2025 by noting China’s careful distancing from the growing Russia-North Korea partnership. 

South Korea: Ex-President Yoon faces escapes detention attempt 
On 03 January, South Korean investigators halted the operation to detain erstwhile President Yoon Suk Yeol over his declaration of martial law. According to officials, approximately 300 people crowded a narrow entrance which raised safety concerns. The detention warrant, which is valid till 06 January, came after Yoon disregarded three summonses related to insurrection charges stemming from his impeachment on 14 December. While Yoon’s defence team claims the warrant is unlawful, the ruling party's emergency committee head, Kwon Young Se, condemned the attempt as “highly unfair.” In contrast, opposition party leader Park Chan Dae called for his immediate detention. The investigation team expressed "deep regret" over Yoon's non-compliance with legal procedures. 

South Korea: Biden extends condolences following South Korea’s Jeju Air crash
On 29 December, US President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden expressed regret over the Jeju Air crash in Muan, South Korea, which claimed 179 lives. This incident occurred when the aircraft, carrying 181 people, belly-landed and exploded at Muan International Airport, located 288 kilometers southwest of Seoul. Only two survivors were rescued from the disaster This became South Korea's worst aviation accident. Biden said: "The American people share deep bonds of friendship with the South Korean people.” and emphasized the close alliance between the nations. He pledged US support and said: “The United States stands ready to provide any necessary assistance.” 

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Indonesia: Formally joins BRICS
On 07 January, The Straits Times reported on Indonesia joining formally as a full member of BRICS. Brazil, which holds the current presidency of BRICS, said: “Indonesia shares with the other members of the group support for the reform of global governance institutions, and contributes positively to the deepening of cooperation in the Global South.” It also informed that Indonesia’s membership was approved in 2023, at the summit in South Africa. However, the country was keen to join the bloc only after its Presidential elections in 2024.

Indonesia: Signs an MoU with Qatar for constructing houses
On 08 January, The Straits Times reported that Indonesia signed an MoU with the chairman of Qilaa International Group, Qatari Sheikh Abdulaziz Abdulrahman Al Thani to construct one million affordable homes. This was part of President Prabowo Subianto’s flagship program where he promised to build three million homes annually. According to the housing minister Maruarar Sirait: “We prioritise the lower middle class who lives in the cities.” While the land will be provided by the government, the Qilaa group from Qatar will finance the project.

Malaysia: Announces tax incentives in the Special Economic Zone 
On 08 January, Malaysia’s government announced tax incentives to attract investments to the Johor-Singapore Economic Zone (JS-SEZ). Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance along with the Johor state government proposed a five per cent tax rate for companies if they invest in “qualifying manufacturing and services activities” like artificial intelligence, medical devices, aerospace manufacturing etc. The Johor government had also decreased the entertainment duties.. The special economic zone consists of 3,571 square kilometers in southern Johor. It involves nine flagship zones serving several economic sectors. The leaders hoped that these incentives would draw more investments into the zone.

Thailand: Former Prime Minister dismisses speculations of returning to leadership
On 06 January, Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra confirmed that he will not return to leadership in the future. However, he would assist his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is the current Prime Minister. He also promised to improve the living standards of Thais and decrease electricity costs to 3.70 baht per unit in 2025. At a local campaign rally, he also acknowledged the substantial public debt. He informed that the government was working with civil servants to enhance their productivity and thus meet governmental targets. He further highlighted the government’s priority for the upcoming year: “Tackling drug-related issues, eliminating fraudulent call centres, and dismantling monopolies to reduce living costs for Thai citizens.”

Indonesia: Launches a free meal program to address malnutrition
On 06 January, Indonesia launched a free meal program worth USD 4.3 billion. The program aimed to counter malnutrition which was promised by President Prabowo Subianto during his election campaign. He said that he would provide “nutritious free meals to millions of school children and pregnant women.” The program aimed to improve the livelihood conditions and enhance economic growth. Presidential spokesman Hasan Nasbi said: “This is historic for Indonesia for the first time conducting a nationwide nutrition programme for toddlers, students, pregnant and breastfeeding mothers.” 190 kitchens were allocated nationwide with the government keeping 10,000 rupiah per meal. The budget was set at 71 trillion rupiah for 2025. However, some analysts claim that this approach was not sufficient to address malnutrition and stunting.

Maldives: Free Trade Agreement signed inked with China
On 2 January, during his two-day visit to India, Maldives Foreign Minister, Dr Abdulla Khaleel announced that a Free Trade Agreement has been inked between Maldives and China, which came into effect on 1 January. The China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement (CMFTA) is set to benefit both countries as it improves market access and reduces tariff charges. The agreement's objective is aimed at improving trade volumes, increasing productive capacity, creating opportunities for commerce between both countries and reduce barriers to trade, said a notification from the Maldives’ Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. This comes as the CMFTA was earlier signed by both sides in 2014 and later received the Maldivian legislature's approval in 2017. But its implementation stalled in 2018 due to a change in the regime. It is worth noting that President Muizzu's visit to China in January 2024 led to this recent development. 

Bhutan: BHEL commissions first two units of hydroelectric project
On 8 January, the Bharat Heavy Electronic Limited (BHEL) announced that it had finished commissioning the first two units of Punatsangchhu-II hydroelectric project (PHEP) in Bhutan's Wangdue district. The PHEP-II is a greenfield hydroelectric project which is a result of an agreement between the Government of India and the Royal Government of Bhutan. On commissioning of all six units, about 4357 GW hours’ worth of power generation can be achieved in the country, on an annual basis. Additionally, BHEL's involvement in this project is linked to the design, supply, installation, control and monitoring systems, shunt reactor, busduct, pothead yard, commissioning of electro-mechanical works for the 6x170 MW vertical Francis turbines, matching synchronous system and associated auxiliaries.  

India: Taliban seeks visa for Afghan citizens
On 8 January, a high-level meeting was held between India and the interim government of Afghanistan. The acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi met Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri in Dubai. A statement from the Taliban informed that the Afghan side had urged India to issue visas to Afghan businessmen, patients, and students. However, there are three hurdles to this.  First, the Indian government does not recognize the Taliban government. Second, the Indian Intelligence and security have cited potential threat from those seeking visas from Afghanistan. Third, the Indian government does not have an operating embassy in Kabul or consulate.

Bangladesh: BNP demands public disclosure of power and energy contracts during Awami League government
On 2 January, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) sought the public disclosure of power and energy contracts during the Awami League' (AL) term. While speaking at a press conference, a standing committee member stated that the interim regime should have first made " public the agreements so that the people can know how the Awami League gave contracts with public money without any tendering process or without following the public procurement rules." In a similar statement, BNP's Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir claimed that the sector has been involved in corrupt practices for the last 16 years,. According to the BNP, the AL has spent around BDT 3.33 lakh crore in the sector and pocketed BDT 1 lakh crore from the earlier-mentioned amount, under the guise of capacity charges. 

Pakistan: Pakistan begins UNSC non-permanent member term
On 1 January, Pakistan began term as a non-permanent member in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). While speaking at a reception hosted for the permanent UNSC members at the Foreign Office, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar highlighted that Pakistan has made a statement at the council. It seeks to achieve peaceful and just solutions to the Council’s agendas and will also campaign against illegal and unilateral threats. On the same day, the Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zehra Baloch was replaced by the Additional Secretary Europe, Ambassador Shafqat Ali Khan, while the former has been appointed to Pakistan’s diplomatic mission in France. Meanwhile, the Foreign Office also revealed that both India and Pakistan exchanged lists pertaining to their nuclear installations and facilities under the Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks against Nuclear Installations and Facilities. They also exchanged the list of prisoners withheld in each other’s custody. The Foreign Office notice stated that this was carried out under the Consular Access Agreement of 2008. Pakistan has sought the release of 38 military personnel who went missing in 1965 and 1971 wars. The list provided by Pakistan highlighted that 266 Indian prisoners were in its custody while 462 Indians were in Pakistan’s custody. Hence, the Government of India has been called upon to release those Pakistanis, 52 civilian prisoners and 56 fishermen, who have served their term and whose national status has been verified. 
 
Pakistan: The Washington Post hints at India’s involvement in targeted killings across Pakistan
On 1 January, Dawn reported on The Washington Post’s findings of India’s external agencies’ alleged involvement in carrying out covert attacks around the world. The report by The Washington Post described the assault on Amir Sarfraz Tamba. Tamba was allegedly blamed for killing Sarabjit Singh in a prison in Lahore. The report stated that Indian agencies gave out contracts to “local petty criminals” in Pakistan for the killings. According to the report, the killings in Pakistan were never carried out by Indian citizens. The report claimed that the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of India gave contracts to entrepreneurs operating from Dubai. The businessmen acted as their middle men. The businessmen hired people to carry out surveillance and eliminate targets. The report further claimed that in Pakistan, the target of Indian agencies mainly belonged to two militant groups which were Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. The report also mentions ISI head Nadeem Anjum informing about Indian aggression in Pakistan to CIA Director William J Burns in the year 2022. Further the report cited the claim of militants operating in Jammu and Kashmir in which they contend that India has vested interest in overstating its “deadly capabilities.” 

Pakistan: PILDAT report highlights the weak state of democracy in Pakistan
On 1 January, The News International reported on Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development (PILDAT)’s “Quality of Democracy in Pakistan 2024” report. The report highlighted how another set of politicians have come to power with the support from the establishment and by manipulating the election results, reducing the authority of judiciary, throwing the opposition leaders in jail and taking away rights of the citizens. The report stated that the elections conducted in 2024 were not free and fair. Further, the new amendment to the constitution has divided the judiciary and altered the process of appointing the chief justice. The report also stated how parliament in haste has given its assent to increase the tenure of the army chief to five years. This measure came despite the political system not being under martial law.  The report also highlighted how politicians gain the support of the establishment to demean their opponents. This however, only provides them with short term benefits. The report also highlighted the increase in detentions and kidnapping of media professionals. Often, the government would ban the media from showing the “messages and interviews” of Imran Khan. The government also suppressed voices on the internet. It banned X in February. However, only in September, it accepted being responsible for putting the ban, citing “national security issues” as the rationale. 

Pakistan: PTI in US to initiate a campaign for Imran Khan’s release
On 31 December, The News International reported that PTI would be beginning a drive for freeing Imran Khan. The campaign is planned to begin from 20 January, the day Donald Trump assumes the US presidency. Sources have hinted that PTI would rent trucks and through “pictures and videos” would attempt to depict the alleged poor state of human rights existing in the country and how the same are being flouted. The ruling government in Pakistan and PTI are currently discussing the possible road ahead which is why the party wants to further coerce the former. Some of the political sections in the US have voiced their concern regarding Imran Khan’s imprisonment. Sources also hint to the possibility that after Donald Trump assumes US presidency, the incoming administration would stress more upon internal issues rather than focusing on Imran Khan’s release. PTI would likely try to rope in more leaders like Richard Grenell who has openly called for Khan’s release. 

Pakistan: Saudi Arabia to buy 15 per cent share in Reko Diq mining project
On 31 December, The News International reported that the government has given a go ahead for Saudi Arabia to have 15 per cent share in the Reko Diq project in Balochistan. The 15 per cent shares are valued at USD 540 million. The deal has been struck “under Inter-Governmental Commercial Transaction Act.” Saudi Arabia would pay for the 15 cent stakes in “two instalments.” Saudi Arabia in the first instalment would pay for 10 per cent shares that would amount to USD 330 million. In the second instalment, Saudi Arabia will pay for the remaining for 5 per cent share which would amount to USD 210 million. In addition to that, the Saudi Fund for Development has vowed USD 150 million to aid the growth of mining “mineral resources in Balochistan.” It is anticipated that investment in the Reko Diq project would further enhance the financial potential of the country. Development of the Reko Diq project is expected to lead to growth in the number of jobs and improve infrastructure.  Saudi Arabia’s investment could further boost the trust of international players in mining sector of Pakistan. 

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Lebanon: Government agrees to extradite Muslim Brotherhood activist
On 8 January, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati stated that his government would extradite Egyptian-Turkish activist Abdul Rahman al-Qaradawi to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The son of a Muslim Brotherhood cleric, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Abdul was arrested in  December while returning from Syria, where he had travelled following the fall of longtime President Bashar al-Assad. While in Syria, the Muslim-Brotherhood-affiliated activist released a video of himself, expressing hopes that the masses in the “Zionist Arab” states of Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia would overthrow their governments in a “flood of change.” Furthermore, Qaradawi viewed Hamas’ “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” of October 2023 as the model for such mass movements. Upon returning to Lebanon, Qaradawi was arrested by government agencies, with UAE and Egypt filing extradition requests shortly after. The Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization in the UAE and Egypt, with Cairo even categorizing it as a terrorist group, principally for its role in the Arab Spring.

Syria: Qatar and Turkey deploy power-generating ships to provide electricity amid shortage
On 8 January, Qatar and Turkey sent two power-generating ships to Syria to help address the country’s insufficient electricity supplies. According to Khaled Abu Di, Director of Syria’s Public Establishment for Transmission and Distribution of Electricity, the ships would act as floating power-plants, generating 800 megawatts per day combined. This output would increase the amount of energy generated in Syria by around 50 per cent, reported the Syrian National News Agency (SANA). Furthermore, Abu Di reported that the government was undertaking efforts to secure transmission lines that would deliver the electricity generated by the ships. Parallelly, the Electricity Establishment was working to repair the country’s conversion plants and connection lines, damaged by decades of civil war, and get the national grid functioning again. 

Syria: Sharaa meets Italian leaders, discusses easing sanctions
On 10 January, Syria’s de-facto leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Assad Hassan Al-Shaibani, met Italy’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani. The talks focussed on easing sanctions on Syria imposed during former President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Tajani stressed that since the restrictions were imposed on a different regime, it was “important to open discussions on the changed situation.” Furthermore, Tajani said Italy wanted to serve as a bridge from Damascus to the European Union, which would transform the Mediterranean Sea into a “sea of development” from what it presently is — “a sea of death, a cemetery of migrants.” Furthermore, Al-Shaibani promised that Al-Sharaa’s government would block illegal immigration and combat drug trafficking, adding that these were “two crucial commitments for Italy.” Previously, on 7 January, the US Treasury announced that it was easing some of the sanctions on Syria’s transitional government, causing European States to follow the same posture. 

Syria: Multiple regional leaders look towards normalizing ties with HTS government
Between 30 and 31 December, Damascus witnessed a sharp increase in diplomatic activity, with multiple countries in the region expressing their intentions to normalize relations with the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government and reopen their embassies in the country. On 31 December, Kuwait’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Al-Yahya, visited Damascus and met the government’s de-factor leader, Abu Mohamed Al-Jolani. Yahya framed his visit as a “message of Gulf solidarity” with new Syria and called for the removal of international sanctions on the HTS-led government. Al-Yahya was accompanied by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Jassim Al-Budaiwi, Previously, on 30 December, Iraq’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fuad Hussein, held a telephonic discussion with his Syrian counterpart, Assad Hassan Al-Shaibani, to discuss multiple issues, with an emphasis on the need to counter the cross-border threat posed by the Islamic State/Daesh (ISIS). Furthermore, Hussein expressed Iraq’s keenness to reopen its embassy in Damascus. On the same day, the head of Iraq’s State of Law Coalition government stressed that Iraq would not interfere in Syria’s internal i affairs. On the same day, Yemen’s Miniter of Foreign Affairs, Shaya Al-Zindani, held a telephone call with Shaibani, reaffirming Yemen’s support for the HTS government and stating that Yemen aimed to reopen its Damascus embassy. 

Syria: Foreign Minister to visitSaudi Arabia, marking his first official visit
On 30 December, Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) affiliated Minister of Foreign Affairs, Asaad al-Shaibani, stated that Saudi Arabia would be his first official visit. He office on 21 December. Shaibani stated he had accepted an invitation from his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Faisal bin Farhan, adding that he “look (ed) forward to building strategic relations with our brothers in the Kingdom in all fields.” On the same day, the Syrian leader specified that the visit would take place in the first week of 2025. 

Syria: Foreign Minister calls for lifting of sanctions in Syria 
On 2 January, Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Asaad al-Shaibani, gave an interview to Al Jazeera discussing his new administration. Shaibani called for an end to international sanctions on Syria, calling them “meaningless and ineffective.” The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader emphasised that rebuilding the war-torn country’s relations with foreign assistance was a priority for him, citing his maiden visit to Saudi Arabia as an example. Unlike the Assad government, which antagonised the USA accusing it of fomenting regime change in Syria, Shaibani marked out Washington as a crucial partner for new Syria, admitting that “the development of this administration would likely depend on the US side.” Referencing his relations to engage with the incoming Donald Trump government, he stated that Syria was “ready to enhance this relation as long as the new US administration shows willingness.” Assuring external audiences that minorities were safe under HTS rule, which intended to treat everyone as Syrians, he tacitly criticised the US government’s excessive focus on the issue during its talks with the HTS: “An American focus on these issues, might inadvertently reinforce divisions within Syrian society and contribute to his fragmentation.” 

Egypt: Foreign Minister holds talk with UK on Gaza and Syria
On 2 January, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Badr Abdelatty and the United Kingdom’s National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell held talks in Cairo, discussing the crises in Gaza and Syria. Following the talks, Abdelatty highlighted Egypt’s mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Highlighting Israel’s “systemic violations against Palestinians, which contravene all international conventions” he emphasised the need to accelerate humanitarian aid delivery into the enclave. Furthermore, he tacitly criticised Israel’s annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights, the movement of Israeli troops into cross-border buffer zone and on Syria’s side of Mount Hermon, calling for “respect for its (Syria’s) unity and territorial integrity.” 

Turkey: Foreign Minister vows to protect Syria’s aggrieved groups
On 2 January, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, vowed that his country would protect all “aggrieved groups” in Syria, including “Nusayris, Alevis, Yazidis, Christians.” Turkey, which backs the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) Syrian transitional government and controls vast tracts of northern Syria through the Syrian National Army (SNA), currently hosts over three million Syrians, includes Sunnis and Turks. Highlighting Ankara’s role in hosting these refugees, Fidan projected Turkey as the “protector and guardian” of all groups facing oppression. 

Israel: UN representative calls for doctors’ boycott of Israel
On 2 January, UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, called on doctors to “sever all ties with Israel” after latter’s military raid and shut down of northern Gaza’s Kamal Adwan hospital and detained its Director, Dr Hussam Abu Safiya. Albanese launched the boycott campaign in social media as a concrete way to denounce Israel’s full destruction of the Palestinian healthcare system in Gaza,” calling it a “critical tool of its ongoing genocide.” The campaign invited a response from pro-Israeli social media users, who called for Hamas to release all its hostages as a precondition for ending the war. Despite criticism from the UN representative and pro-Palestinian observers, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) 401st Brigade framed its raid of the hospital as part of its continuing operations in northern Gaza, which aims to cut off Gaza City from the rest of the enclave’s north. Additionally, Israel claimed that Hamas was using the hospital as cover for its operations, accusing Dr Safiya of cooperating with the Armed Group. However, critics claimed that under the cover of targeting Hamas, the IDF was silently implementing a strategy proposed by retired IDF officers called the “Generals’ Plan,” which aims to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population its southern half. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Ghana: John Mahama sworn in as President for a second term
On 7 January, John Mahara was sworn in for a second term as Ghana’s President. He secured 56 per cent of the vote during the presidential elections held on 9 December. He defeated ruling party candidate Mahamudu Bawumia who secured 41 per cent of votes. Mahama previously served as Ghana’s president from 2012 to 2017. During his swearing-in ceremony, he stated: “Today should mark the opportunity to reset our country.” Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Senegal’s Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Burkina Faso’s leader Ibrahim Traore, Kenyan President William Ruto, President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Gabon’s Brice Oligui Nguema attended the ceremony. 

Egypt: President of the European Parliament visits Cairo
On 9 January, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola visited Egypt. She met Egypt's parliamentary leaders, including the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hanafy El Gebaly, and the President of the Senate, Abdel-Wahab Abdel-Razeq in the capital Cairo. The visit’s agenda included migration management,  EU’s macro-financial assistance, and geopolitical issues. They also discussed the shared concerns over the crisis in the Middle East.

West Africa: Chad and Senegal denounce French president criticism against African leaders
On 7 January, Chad and Senegal responded to France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on French troop's withdrawal from Africa while speaking to French ambassadors in Paris. Macron criticised African leaders for their “ingratitude” towards France’s fight against insurgency in the region. He also commented that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso would not have become a sovereign country if it weren't for French presence. Senegal’s Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko responded by calling Macron’s comments “completely erroneous.” Chad’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abderaman Koulamallah called thatMacron’s remarks as “disrespectful.”

Chad: Concludes first parliamentary elections in 13 years
On 29 December, Chad saw its first parliamentary elections in 13 years. The military government has made a key step towards shifting to civilian rule. The provincial results are expected to be declared on 15 January and official results on 31 January. The vote will choose a new parliament, provincial assemblies and local councils. Opposition parties boycotted the elections alleging vote rigging. Chad’s previous military leader Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno was elected as President in May 2024. Since then, opposition parties have been describing the presidential elections and Deby’s presidency as fraudulent.

Ivory Coast: President says French troops to withdraw in January
On 1 January, Ivory Coast announced that French troops would withdraw from the country in January. During the end-of-year address by President Alassane Ouattara, he announced that the 43rd BIMA marine infantry battalion at Port-Bouet in Abidjan, led by French troops, “will be handed over” to the country’s armed forces. Ouattara stated: “We can be proud of our army, whose modernization is now effective. It is in this context that we have decided on the concerted and organized withdrawal of French forces.” There are nearly 1,000 French soldiers stationed in the country. This development comes after Chad announced the end of military cooperation with France in November and French troops began their withdrawal from the country the previous week. Ivory Coast and Chad are the two latest countries to urge France to withdraw its troops after Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. 

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Italy: PM meets US President-elect Trump in Florida
On 06 January, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni met US President Donald Trump in Florida. Argentinian President Javier Milei, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungry also travelled to Florida to meet with Trump... Reportedly, Meloni had discussed the arrest of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala in Iran in December. Trump had also launched a hardline "maximum pressure campaign" against Iran during his first term in office, and will likely pursue similar policies targeting Tehran in his second term. No official statement on the meeting has been released so far.

Switzerland: Gerhard Pfister steps down as Swiss Centre Party leader
On 07 January, Gerhard Pfizer announced that he will be stepping down as the head of the Swiss Centre Party in summer 2025. The party made this announcement in the press release on 06 January. The successor of the party will be chosen in the party meeting that will be organised in June 2025. Pfister took over the leadership of the Centre Party in April 2016 when the party was called the Christian Democrats People’s Party. Under his leadership, the party not only changed its name, but also merged with the Conservative Democratic Party of Switzerland.

France: Holocaust denier Jean Marine Le Pen dies at 96
On 07 January, National Rally confirmed the death of Jean Marine Le Pen. He was a soldier in France’s colonial wars. Le Pen co-founded the party National Front in 1972. The party embraced anti-Semitism and criticized decolonisation. It also sided with the Nazi-allied Vichy Regime. Le Pen won 14 per cent votes in the first round of the 1988 presidential election. The National Front got its first election wins in the 1990s, by winning the municipalities of Toulon, Orange and Marignane in southern France, where Le Pen comes from. The party did well in legislative elections in 1997, though France’s two-round system of voting kept it out of parliament as other parties formed a coalition to defeat the far right party. On 21 April 2002, Le Pen ran for France’s presidential elections. However, later, Jacques Chirac won the elections with a landslide victory of 82 per cent votes. Le Pen  had been found guilty of public insults, incitement to racial hatred, provocation to hatred and discrimination, and violence against a female candidate. Marine Le Pen, his daughter, took over as the head of the party in 2011. She attempted to remove the stigma of racism and antisemitism. She also had public disagreements with her father which led him to being expelled from the party he founded. Marine Le Pen rebranded the party as National Rally.

Germany: Elon Musk criticises President Steinmeier in his social media post
On 01 January, Deutsche Welle reported on the criticism hauled at Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier by the CEO of social media platform X, Elon Musk. He criticized him in a response to the post uploaded by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)-affiliated influencer Naomi Seibt. Musk wrote: “Steinmeier is an anti-democratic tyrant! Shame on him." While Steinmeier’s office noted the post, they refused to make a comment on it. Earlier, Musk had also criticised Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, calling him a “fool.” He had also misspelled his name when he said that Scholz would lose the upcoming election. Responding to these, Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said that Musk had “billions and unbridled communication power.” Habeck further said that he was trying to weaken Europe through his close interest in AfD and its members. 

Regional: Romania and Bulgaria join the Schengen area
On 01 January, Euronews reported on Romania and Bulgaria joining the Schengen area as “full-fledged members.” This means 25 million residents in Bulgaria and Romania jointly will have no barriers (land border checks) to move across the Schengen zone. The move has been on schedule for a long time since both countries joined the EU in 2011. The Schengen zone which was established in 1985 now consists of 29 countries including non-EU members such as Iceland and Switzerland. Till now the citizens of Bulgaria and Romania had to go through long queues to complete official checks using identity documents and passports which are no longer needed.

Regional: One million across the EU support safe access to abortion initiative 
On 01 January, Euronews reported on the success of the “Citizens’ Initiative, “My voice, my choice” which received one million signatures demanding “safe access to abortion,” in the EU. The initiative demands for “safe and accessible abortion” with support from more than 15 EU countries surpassing the threshold. It was led by a Slovenian non-profit organisation which calls for gender equality. It wants the European Commission to propose solid measures across EU to guarantee safe and legal abortion services. Abortion rights and access has been widely debated across the EU and in April 2024, the European parliament voted in favor to make abortion accessible in the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights. . According to Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib: “It's a member state competence, so we will need an agreement from all of us. We will need this unanimity, but I hope that we will be able to protect women's lives.” 

Ukraine: Receives USD six billion fund from the US
On 30 December, the US Department of Treasury released an official statement that pledged close toUSD six billion to Ukraine as “military and budget” aid. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L Yellen said that this aid was crucial to Ukraine as it was grappling with Russian attacks on civilians and infrastructure. Of the allotted budget, USD 2.5 billion would be given as security assistance, USD 1.25 billion would be “military drawdown,” including “High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), optically guided missiles, anti-tank weapons systems, air-to-ground munitions and spare parts” and another USD 1.2 billion will be used to fund Ukraine’s Security Initiative... Yellen further said these funds indicated the US’s national interests and unwavering support to Ukraine. She also called for increasing military support to Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia.

Russia: Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirms support to President Putin
On 31 December, France24 reported on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s message to Putin. Xi said: “No matter how the international situation changes, China will remain steadfast in further comprehensively deepening reform... and promoting world peace and development.” He called Putin his “best friend” and said that despite changes in the international framework, the relationship between Russia and China was growing towards the correct path. He further highlighted the 75th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations with Russia, thus reaching an “important milestone.” He also noted that despite the strains in their relationship, it had become more “mature and stable” over the years.

About the Authors
C Shraddha and Nova Karun K are Research Interns at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Rohini Reenum is a PhD scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Vaishak Sreekumar and Kumari Krishna are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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