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GP Team
3 February 2025 |
The World This Week #294 & 295 Vol. 6 Nos. 48 & 49, 26 January 2025
Vani Vyshnavi, C. Shraddha, Kumari Krishna and Sayeka Ghosh
Democracy and the threat of Oligarchy in the US
Four Key takeaways of Joe Biden's farewell address
Vani Vyshnavi J
On 15 January 2025, Joe Biden delivered his farewell speech at the Oval Office, highlighting a few important issues as he looked back at his tenure and the challenges ahead for the US. He warned about "the power of the oligarchies" as the "greatest danger to civilization."
Following are four significant takeaways from his speech.
1. The threat of emerging oligarchies
Biden mentioned the growing concentrations of wealth and power among the group of ultra-wealthy individuals, which would undermine the core values of American democracy. From a domestic perspective, this oligarchic trend erodes public trust in institutions, resulting in policies favoring the elite over the commoner. The growing influence of wealth in politics will also raise income inequality among the population and reduce the opportunities for many Americans.
2. Threat from the tech-industrial complex to democracy
Biden has also warned about how powerful the US-based tech giant had become and how they have so much control that they are destroying democracy. Misinforming the public to degrade accessible information highlights the eroding trust in the electoral system and public discourse. The engineering of bias in algorithms on the lack of social transparency of media platforms would emerge as the direct impact of the aforementioned evolving situations on US democracy because tech companies have been known to shape voter behavior and public discourse. He added that regulations and accountabilities should be established for the tech sector to protect democratic norms and prevent the higher points at which individual audiences become polarized.
3. Climate leadership and national security
Biden emphasized the necessity of tackling climate change as both an international and domestic priority. The US infrastructure, agricultural operations, and economy would be affected by increasing temperatures, health risks, extreme weather, disasters, and depletion of raw materials. Renewable energy transition not only brings job creation and oil independence opportunities but also solves the mentioned challenges, which are complemented by economic benefits. Concerning climate challenge issues, this would push up the US domestic resilience even as America gains more competitive advantages through improvements in innovation and high-level environmental leadership.
4. Reinforcing domestic unity through alliances
Biden stressed the need to strengthen international alliances like NATO. For the US, these alliances also contribute directly to domestic security, economic stability and access to global markets. However, domestic political polarization and skepticism towards multilateralism damage the American ability to lead effectively. By strengthening these alliances, the US can promote unity at home and, therefore, prove to the American public the tangible benefits of international cooperation: job creation, military security, and technological innovation.
Trump's Inaugural Address: Five major takeaways
C Shraddha
On 20 January 2025, Donald J Trump was sworn in as the 47th American President. During his inaugural address, he vowed to begin the complete restoration of America and "common sense". He stated that the US government faces a "crisis of trust" as "radical and corrupt establishments" extract power and wealth from American society. The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency, aimed at reducing federal spending, and the Department of External Revenue Services, focused on acquiring revenue from the imposition of tariffs on foreign actors, remain at the top of his agenda.
Following are the five major takeaways from his inaugural address:
1. Biden has failed the US within and outside
Trump criticized the previous government for failing to address domestic crises while making "catastrophic" decisions abroad. He accused them of providing "sanctuary for criminals" while neglecting the fundamental needs of the American citizens. Furthermore, the President highlighted the disparity in the resources spent on funding the defence of foreign borders. At the same time, necessities remained unavailable during emergencies like Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and the Los Angeles wildfire.
2. Migrant influx and national emergency at the US border
President Trump declared the reinstatement of the Remain in Mexico Policy, officially known as the Migrant Protection Protocol, to curb the influx of immigrants from the Mexico- US border. Additionally, he stated his intention to designate cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations" and begin measures to end illegal immigration while deporting millions of "criminal aliens" back to their home country.
The President vowed to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1978 and employ complete federal enforcement to eliminate the presence of gangs that destabilize the country.
The detrimental effects of this 'national emergency' became evident when the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ONE app stopped working with a notice on the CBP website stating the cancellation of existing appointments. In a press conference in the Oval Office, he also announced his government's attempt to end birthright citizenship, a right enshrined in the US Constitution.
3. Need to restore economic and energy stability
Trump ascribed extensive overspending and soaring energy prices as the primary determinant for high inflation experienced in the United States. He declared a National Energy Emergency to combat rising energy prices while revoking the Green New Deal (GND) and Electric Vehicles Mandate. Trump's primary objective remains to transform the US into an energy and gas manufacturing nation designed to fill the country's strategic reserves, reduce domestic prices and boost energy exports globally.
'Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential', an executive order, was immediately signed by the President after the inauguration. This order prioritizes the development of Alaska's liquified natural gas (LPG) potential while instructing the federal government to maximize its production. On 20 January, Trump officially withdrew from the Paris Climate Accords, claiming it would save America "a trillion dollars.
4. Recognition of two genders
"As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders- male and female", stated the President. He stated the intention of his government to forge a society that is "colourblind and merit-based" while eradicating the intrusion of race and gender in all spheres of public and private life.
His order would require the government-issued identification documents to be based on "an individual's immutable biological classification as either male or female" while replacing the term "gender" with "sex". After assuming office, Trump revoked 78 executive orders signed by former- President Joe Biden, many of which included measures to promote racial equality and address discrimination against transgender and gay individuals.
5. The US claims over the Panama Canal and the Gulf of Mexico
Trump condemned Panama for breaking their promise to the US by violating and overcharging American ships. During the address, he accused China of operating in the Panama Canal. "Above all, China is operating the Panama Canal, and we didn't give it to China. We gave it to Panama. And we're taking it back", declared Trump. As part of his executive orders, he called for renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America and changing the name of Denali to Mount McKinley, an ode to the 25th President of the United States.
Responding to Trump's claim over the Panama Canal, Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino rejected Trump's canal acquisition plan while repudiating any allegations of Chinese presence in the region. "The canal was not a concession from anyone. It was the result of generational struggles that culminated in 1999," responded Mulino to Trump's address in a social media post.
Sri Lanka: Seven takeaways of new President's first visit to China
Kumari Krishna
During 14-17 January 2025, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visited China. His visit witnessed a joint statement between the two countries and numerous agreements on mutual commitments with significant economic and geopolitical implications for both countries. His visit underlines terms of investment, trade agreements, and significant cooperation in other sectors.
The following are significant takeaways from President Dissanayake's first visit to China.
1. Emphasis on mutual respect, trust, and support with an independent foreign policy, and Taiwan
China and Sri Lanka highlighted 68 years of diplomatic ties and are expected to deepen their relationship by focusing on "mutual trust, support, respect, win-win cooperation, and common development." The Chinese side reiterated "its commitment to an independent foreign policy of peace" along with firm support for Sri Lanka in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Reaffirming this, Sri Lanka reiterated "its commitment to an independent, non-aligned foreign policy."
Sri Lanka expressed "its commitment to the one-China principle, recognizing the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory" along with strong opposition to "Taiwan independence" and pledged not to allow anti-China or separatist activities on its territory. Sri Lanka reassured its support to China regarding its policies with Xizang and Xinjiang.
2. Sinopec Investment in Hambantota Oil Refinery
A formal agreement with the People's Republic of China, including the Sinopec Group, was finalized regarding the Hambantota Oil Refinery to establish a state-of-the-art refinery in Hambantota. Its value is an estimated USD 3.7 billion, and it will have a capacity of 200,000 barrels daily, mainly for export. The country's earnings concerning foreign income will go up considerably, thereby building foreign reserves. It also reflected the significance of Hambantota as a strategic economic hub for China.
3. China's Financial and Technical Assistance to Sri Lanka
China granted Sri Lanka RMB 500 million for Economic and Technical Cooperation. Another important outcome was the creation of an Investment and Economic Cooperation Working Group to enhance bilateral trade and encourage investments. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the People's Bank of China have renewed their currency swap agreement. They will continue to cooperate financially with China to play a positive role in the International Monetary Fund while maintaining positive communication to help Sri Lanka achieve debt sustainability.
4. China's support for Sri Lankan Enterprises and Key sectors
China will continue supporting Sri Lankan tea, gems, and other enterprises. Chinese importers and exporters have pledged cooperation with their Sri Lankan equivalents. In turn, this program would propel exports of Sri Lankan goods. The discussion included various ways to push forward digital transformation, green development, and logistics to offer Sri Lanka an opportunity to introduce modernized activities within industries.
5. China-Sri Lanka Agricultural Collaboration
The visit highlighted China's willingness to support Sri Lanka's agricultural sector. The cooperation includes training programs and demonstration projects on bio-technologies for tropical crops, plant breeding, and aquaculture. These endeavours will help strengthen Sri Lanka's capacity for sustainable agricultural development and diversify its export needs to include unique products such as tea, cinnamon, fruits, and aquatic products. This partnership is likely to promote rural revitalization in Sri Lanka.
6. Emphasis on language and cultural exchange
China pledged to show an interest in promoting cultural exchanges through activities such as teaching the Chinese language in Sri Lanka while working together to develop the China-Sri Lanka Joint Center for Education and Research to strengthen scientific and technological exchanges. The two sides will extend their cooperation in areas including "youth, think tanks, sports, and the media, build on the bond of Buddhist exchanges and deepen people-to-people and sister-city exchanges" and strengthen their participation in the Alliance for Cultural Heritage in Asia, which according to China will promote bilateral cultural heritage cooperation with Sri Lanka.
Furthermore, both countries pledged to jointly promote tourism flows, with China encouraging Sri Lankan cities to participate in the International Tourism Alliance of Silk Road Cities. Both countries will support and promote tourism activities.
7. Emphasis on BRI and Maritime cooperation
The visits called for push-on commitments for major infrastructure projects that include the integrated development of Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port. This is expected to draw in more investments and new economic opportunities in Sri Lanka under the BRI by China. Despite some reservations regarding debt risks, the Sri Lankan government has appreciated China's support.
China also encourages Sri Lanka's participation in the Belt and Road International Green Development Coalition in the wake of climate change and has agreed to collaborate in disaster prevention, mitigation, and emergency rescue. It will also share technologies to improve emergency management capabilities.
China and Sri Lanka have agreed to enhance cooperation in marine environment conservation, disaster relief, capacity building, maritime rescue, and personnel training. The parties proposed negotiations on a Memorandum of Understanding on Ocean Cooperation towards a Blue Partnership, thus signalling for sustainable utilization of the ocean's resources.
South Korea: Former President's arrest and the legal battle
Sayeka Ghosh
What happened?
On 18 January, South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeoul arrived for a hearing at a Seoul Western District Court. His lawyer stated that his declaration of martial law was a legitimate exercise of his Presidential powers. Hundreds of Yoon's supporters gathered outside the court, chanting slogans demanding his release.
On 15 January, CIO officials arrested Yoon with a warrant from Seoul Western District Court, making him the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested. Although the CIO did officially frame charges against Yoon, media reports highlighted that he could face life imprisonment on the grounds of attempting an insurrection. Consequently, the anti-corruption agency successfully applied for a detention warrant from Seoul Western District Court to transfer Yoon to Seoul Detention Center, where the impeached President would remain in custody.
What is the background?
First, Yoon's declaration of martial law and attempts to arrest him. On 03 December 2024, Yoon declared martial law in a televised address and stated that martial law was necessary to root out "anti-state forces" and overcome political deadlock. Yoon deployed military forces to keep the parliament and the political opposition in check. The martial law decree lasted only six hours before Yoon abandoned the plan under pressure. When the CIO tried to arrest Yoon, the Presidential Security Service, which functions as the South Korean leader's guard, blocked it. Finally, Yoon surrendered and claimed that he decided to prevent "unfortunate and bloody incidents" resulting from any possible scuffle between the two agencies.
Second, the legal battle between Yoon and the CIO. Yoon's ongoing legal battle with State institutions centred around the tensions between Executive fiat and the rule of law. Yoon argues that the CIO lacked legitimate authority to investigate him since he was a sitting President (despite his impeachment). Accordingly, his legal team considers the warrant against him and his subsequent arrest unconstitutional. However, the CIO was established in 2021 with a constitutional mandate to investigate crimes committed by all high-ranking government officials. Its mandate explicitly includes the President since the agency was created as an independent body following a corruption scandal involving former President Park Geun-hye. Ironically, Yoon, now calling the CIO's actions unconstitutionally, was the chief prosecutor in Park's corruption case.
Third, Yoon's support base and opposition. Yoon faced a rapidly shrinking political support base within his People Power Party (PPP) and among the public since his declaration of martial law. Yoon's hardline stance against opposition obstruction initially resonated with few conservative voters. This is because they view his actions as a much-needed pushback against the Democratic Party's (DP) majority in parliament. However, his imposition of martial law led at least 18 PPP lawmakers to leave his party and join the opposition to reject the decree. Furthermore, the PPP leader, Han Dong-Hoon, openly stated that Yoon "must be promptly suspended from performing his duties." The public dissatisfaction has dropped approval ratings to 13 per cent from early December's rating of 20 per cent. On 10 December, the opposition-led National Assembly passed a bill to appoint a special counsel to investigate Yoon and his military aides. Meanwhile, the DP rallied public support and called for Yoon's impeachment and arrest.
Fourth, international responses. South Korea's external partners stressed that they were closely monitoring the issue without taking sides. The US adopted a measured stance, affirming its commitment to working with "the Seoul government." Along the same lines, Japan reported to be following the developments with "particular and serious interest."
What does it mean?
During the Cold War era, South Korea faced multiple political crises, including a military coup against its first President, Syngmen Rhee, the assassination of President Park Chung-hee (1979) and the Gwangju uprising against military rule (1980). Since the 1990s, there has been political stability; Yoon's arrest questions that. On the economic front, the political crisis could also adversely impact international investor confidence in South Korea.
Global Politics Explainer
Greenland: Trump's Interests, Greenlanders' Responses and European Concerns
Kumari Krishna
On 7 January, Donald Trump Jr visited Greenland. Later, on the same day, Donald Trump revealed that he would not exclude economic or military options to acquire the island for the US. He described Greenland as important to national security. A social media video showed Trump’s branded plane landing in Nuuk, Greenland's capital, on the same day, coupled with the slogan "Make Greenland Great Again".
On 7 January, Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Egede, said that Greenland was not for sale. In a press conference in Copenhagen, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, “We have no reason to believe that would happen,” further reinstating “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.”
Later, the French foreign minister Jean Noel warned Trump against threatening the EU’s “sovereign borders.” German government spokesman Steffen Hebestriet said, "as always, the firm principle applies that borders must not be moved by force,” highlighting the international agreements.
Where is Greenland?
Greenland is an autonomous region of Denmark. Although a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland has run an autonomous government controlling its internal matters since 1979. Greenland is the world's largest island; home to 56,000 people, Greenland has an extensive local government. Foreign policy and defence, however, remain under Denmark's control.
Greenland is strategically important because it is close to vital shipping lanes, such as the Northwest Passage, which is becoming increasingly accessible due to melting Arctic ice. The island is also rich in natural resources, including rare earth elements, oil, and gas, making it a focal point for global economic and strategic interests.
Historically, Greenland has always debated independence. The 2009 Self-Government Act recognizes Greenlanders as a nation with the right to self-determination and independence. Greenlanders believe that their natural resources lie within the confines of the green island and will determine their journey in the international communities. Though most people in Greenland are pro-independence, opinions and strategies for achieving independence vary, and this movement remains central to Greenlandic identity and politics.
What is the American interest in Greenland?
The US has a long-time interest in Greenland. As World War II arose, the United States created military installations in Greenland, including the Thule Air Base and the Pituffik Space Base, which remain essential to the United States' defence system in the Arctic.
In 1946, President Truman expressed an interest in purchasing Greenland based on its strategic importance, but Denmark turned down the offer. Eventually, the subject re-emerged when Donald Trump expressed interest in buying Greenland in 2019. While Denmark and Greenland both dismissed the idea at the time, Trump’s interest highlighted the island’s growing importance in light of Arctic geopolitics and climate-driven changes.
What is Denmark's position in Greenland?
Denmark's position on Greenland supports its autonomy while maintaining strategic influence over the island. Historically, Denmark has controlled Greenland, first as a colonial ruler in the 18th century and later fully integrating it into the Kingdom of Denmark in 1953. Greenland gained greater autonomy through the 1979 Home Rule Act and the 2009 Self-Government Act, though Denmark still controls foreign affairs and defence.
Economically, Denmark provides around USD 500 million annually, a vital part of Greenland's budget, and supports sectors like education and healthcare. Socially, many Greenlanders move to Denmark for work and study. Today, Denmark aims to balance support for Greenland's self-governance with ensuring its sovereignty, mainly as global interest in the Arctic region grows. Denmark positions itself as an economic and strategic partner to Greenland.
Why is the rest of Europe against Trump’s position on Greenland?
Many European countries, including France and Germany, oppose Trump's interest in buying Greenland since it challenges Denmark's sovereignty and raises concerns over US dominance in the Arctic. Such nations are sceptical of the long-term intentions of the US in the region as they view the push for Greenland as a possible attempt to boost military and economic influence in the Arctic.
France, Germany, and other EU members emphasize international cooperation and multi-lateral governance in the Arctic. Rather than territorial deals, they prefer diplomacy and are doubtful that Trump’s plans might disrupt regional stability and the delicate balance of power in the Arctic.
What next for Trump and Greenland?
First, Trump's continued interest in Greenland. Greenland's proximity to emerging Arctic shipping routes, the availability of rare earth minerals used in technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, and its military significance make it a valuable asset for the US. With global powers like Russia and China increasing their footprint in the Arctic, Greenland is critical to the US for balancing that influence. Strengthening US national security, economic power, and geopolitical influence form the basis of Trump's vision to acquire Greenland.
Denmark opposes Trump’s plan. The prospect of acquiring Greenland faces significant legal, political, and cultural obstacles. Under Denmark's constitution, any sale of Greenland would require constitutional amendments and approval from both Greenland's government and its citizens, which is an improbable scenario.
The Greenlanders are inclined to protect their sovereignty. Greenlanders believe in their future in terms of greater autonomy than subjugation to another foreign power. Trump's rhetoric and actions, such as his "Make Greenland Great Again" campaign, have heightened Greenlanders' fears about their cultural and political independence.
TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Sayeka Ghosh, Neha Tresa George, Anu Maria Joseph, Nuha Amina, Ayan Datta, Kumari Krishna, C Shraddha, Nova Karun K and Vaishak Sreekumar
CHINA THIS WEEK
TikTok restores its services in US after intervention from Trump
On 20 January, TikTok announced that it would begin restoring its services from 19 January January after Trump said he would sign an executive order to delay enforcing the ban. TikTok faced a ban in April 2024 when President Joe Biden passed a law requiring the Chinese app to be sold to a US company or be shut down. On 17 January, the US Supreme Court upheld the law forcing the company to sell or face a ban,. Trump announced that he would delay the ban and assured that no penalties would be faced by any service providers helping the company. He assured that he would issue an executive order after his inauguration to make a deal to protect US national security.
China: President Xi holds online meeting with President Putin
On 22 January, Global Times reported that Chinese President XI Jinping held a video meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The leader hailed bilateral ties and called for both sides to expand bilateral relations and push for in-depth development of practical cooperation. 2024 saw frequent exchanges between the two countries, marking the 75th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations. In the meeting, Putin emphasized that China-Russia relations are self-sufficient and do not depend on the global political environment. He also remarked that Russia firmly supports Taiwan as an inalienable part of China and opposes "Taiwan Independence."
China unveils tools to support weakening Yuan
On 13 January, Reuters reported that China unveiled more tools to support its weakening currency, including parking more dollars in Hong Kong to bolster the Yuan and allow companies to borrow more overseas, thereby improving capital flows. The Yuan has hit 16-month lows owing to a dominant dollar, sliding Chinese bond yields, and a threat of higher trade barriers with the US. The Chinese Central Bank, known as The People's Bank of China, had previously tried other means to improve the sliding Yuan, including issuing of warning against speculative moves.. China's foreign reserves stood at around 3.2 trillion dollars at the end of December. China's onshore Yuan traded at 7.3318 per dollar on 13 January, not far from the 16-month low of 7.3328 last week. It has lost over 3% since the US election in early November. To prevent yields from falling too much and to control the offshore circulation of the Yuan, the central bank has been suspending treasury bond purchases and issuing a large number of bills in Hong Kong.
China: Grenadian PM visits Beijing
On 13 January, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the Prime Minister of Grenada, Dickon Mitchell, in Beijing. Xi stated China’s willingness to assist in the economic and social development of Grenada. Mitchell extended his condolences to the Chinese government over the Dingri country earthquake. Furthermore, Xi expressed that the two countries should cooperate on new ventures like energy, low-carbon, green development, and digital economy.
Three Chinese citizens sentenced to prison in Congo
On 15 January, SCMP reported the sentencing of three Chinese citizens for illegally exploiting the mineral resources of the Democratic Republic of Congo. On 04 January, the Chinese citizens were arrested, with USD 400,000 and 10 gold bars in their possession. They were fined USD 600,000 and sentenced to seven years in prison. Money laundering, fraud and looting were other charges to which they pleaded guilty. This verdict marks the first time the court has convicted foreign mineral brokers for unauthorized and illegal mining in Congo.
Sri Lankan President Dissanayake visits China
On 14 January, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumar Dissanayake began his first four-day state visit to China. Dissanayake was officially welcomed by China’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chen Xiaodong. It is anticipated that the visit would lead to deepening of bilateral ties between the two countries in infrastructure, port city development and tourism.
China: Aftershocks and tremors reported in Tingri
On 13 January, Reuters reported that Tingri, a rural country in the Tibet region, was still feeling tremors and aftershocks from the earthquake that struck the Tibet region on 7 January. The 7 January earthquake was the fifth strongest in the history of China, left at least 126 people dead and tales 338 injured in Tibet. The recent earthquakes in Tingri were recorded at a magnitude of 4.9, with the aftershock registering at 5.0. There were no immediate reports of casualties. The recent tremors in the Tingri region led to more than 4700 people being resettled in tents and prefab houses as the night-time temperature dropped to as low as -15 degrees Celsius.
EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Japan: Keen on securing Frigate Contract
On 20 January, the Japan times reported that Japan is competing against Germany for Australia's Project Sea 3000, which comprises the construction of 7 to 11 advanced frigates by 2029 and runs from USD 4.3 to USD 6.8 billion. With this, Japan offers an upgraded Mogami-class frigate, boasting about superior stealth, subsequent efficient automation, and cost efficiencies as there is a struggling effort to augment defense relations and exports further. In the wake of Japan's failed bid to win a submarine contract in 2016, the government and the private industry worked hand-in-hand to address technology transfer issues. There was a guarantee of local Australian production. The German Meko A-200 frigates are in support of a strong industrial presence. Japan accedes on the co-development plan emphasizing industrial benefits, with a decision to be made after the Australian elections in 2025
New Zealand: PM Luxon looks towards bringing more foreign investment
On 23 January, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that the country would relax rules to bring in foreign investment. During the annual State of the Nation address, Luxon said that the country would set up Invest New Zealand as part of the international economic development agency. "I want a country with more start-ups, more IPOs, more investment, higher incomes, and whole ecosystems of growth and innovation", said Luxon
US President Donald Trump seeks closer ties with North Korea
On 23 January, in a Fox News interview broadcast, President Donald Trump reiterated his interest in forming closer ties with North Korea. He remarked that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is a “smart guy” and “not a religious zealot.” On 20 January, Trump called North Korea a “nuclear power”, stating that his return to office would make Kim “happy.” Trump appointed former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell as his presidential envoy for special missions to cover “some of the hottest spots."
South Korea: Impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol detained
On 15 January, impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol was detained by the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) after a period of tense stand-off between the investigators and the President Security Service (PSS). In a video message recorded by Yoon, he stated that the “rule of law has completely collapsed in this country”. Furthermore, he added that he was complying with arrest to put an end to the violence. His compliance follows the incident in which a man set himself ablaze outside the CIO office. Yoon will stay at the Seoul Detention Centre before questioning. The CIO has requested a court order for the formal arrest of Yoon, without which he can only be detained for 48 hours. With a formal arrest, the CIO can detain him for up to 20 days before transferring the case to public prosecutors.
South Korea: DAPA minister scheduled to visit Norway and Saudi Arabia
On 16 January, The Korea Herald reported on the scheduled visit of the head of South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration(DAPA), Seok Jong-gun, to Saudi Arabia and Norway. The five-day trip scheduled from 19 January to 24 January is intended to strengthen industry partnerships and defence exports. Seok is expected to meet Saudi Arabia’s Minister of National Guard, Prince Abdullah bin Bandar Al Saud and focus on including Korea in Saudi Arabia’s modernization project for ground forces. Seok will also meet the undersecretary for political affairs, Khalid bin Hussein Albiyari and explore Korea’s involvement in acquiring key strategic assets in maritime and aerospace sectors. In Norway, Seok will visit Kongsberg Satellite Services(KSAT) to discuss the export of self-propelled howitzers and multiple-rocket launchers.
South Korea dismisses North Korea’s nuclear power status
On 15 January, Trump's pick for Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth in a written statement referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power’. This was rejected by South Korea’s Defense, Foreign and Unification ministries. According to the statement by Hegseth “The DPRK’s status as a nuclear power, its intense focus on increasing the range of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads and its growing cyber capabilities all pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region and globally, Those threats are of particular concern given the DPRK’s proximity to close US allies that base US troops,” Hegseth’s usage of the term nuclear power differs from the formally used ‘nuclear-weapon state.’. A Defense ministry official of South Korea, stated “North Korea's status as a nuclear-weapon state cannot be recognized," South Korea is alarmed by the usage of this term since there is a possibility of Trump pursuing a deal with North Korea which would destabilise their relationship.
China and Philippines agree to resolve issues in South China Sea
On 16 January, the Philippines and China conducted the 10th round of Bilateral Consultation Mechanism to address issues in the South China Sea. China’s Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong co-chaired the meeting with Philippines undersecretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa P Lazaro in Fujian. During the meeting, the Philippines extended their concern about the activity of the Chinese Coast guard in Manila’s exclusive economic zone. Despite concerns, China and the Philippines agreed to advance scientific cooperation on marine and coast guards to resolve issues peacefully.
Japan: Foreign Ministervisits South Korea
On 13 January Foreign Minister of Japan Takeshi Iwaya met with Foreign Minister of Sourh Korea Cho Tae-yul. Cho reassured Iwaya that the political turmoil in South Korea would not affect the relations between the two countries. Both the leaders also emphasised on the need to have a strong trilateral cooperation with the US. Trump has a history of denigrating US alliances which worries both Japan and South Korea. Under the Biden administration the relationship with the two countries had progressed positively. The two countries have pledged to improve their bilateral relations and increase business and cultural exchanges. Iwaya is expected to travel to Malaysia and Indonesia after this visit.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Indonesia: Government plans to set a minimum age for use of social media
On 14 January, The Straits Times reported that Indonesia was considering to impose a minimum age requirement for social media users. According to Communications Minister Meutya Hafid, the main motive behind this move was to protect children. However, the proposed minimum age has not yet been revealed. Hafid said: "The president said to carry on with this plan. He is very supportive on how this kind of child protection will be done in our digital space." A recent survey conducted by the Indonesia Internet Service Provider's Association pointed out that Internet usage reached about 79.5 per cent in 2024. It also showed that 48 per cent of children under 12 had internet access.
Malaysia: Johor set to receive a boost in the healthcare sector, following the establishment of Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone
On 14 January, Malaysia's Johor state healthcare industry was set to get a "significant boost" from the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ). The agreement was signed between Johor and Singapore to upgrade their economies. Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi talked about his meeting with Singapore’s Health Minister Ong Ye Kung. He said: "The meeting provides an opportunity to strengthen relationships and cooperation in the health sector between Johor and Singapore, especially through the JS-SEZ." He further highlighted the topics discussed, including "joint research and cross-border medical tourism." He expressed the state government's interest in working for this initiative as it aimed for the development of healthcare facilities and its benefits.
Thailand: Government removes barriers in visa rules to facilitate growth
On 15 January, Thailand's government ratified changes to visa rules, making it more viable for skilled professionals, investors and wealthy foreigners. The new rules made it easier for them to receive long-term residency permits. The proposed changes removed the minimum annual income requirement for people applying in the wealthy global citizens category. The minimum revenue requirement of companies was also reduced. For long-term resident visa holders, there will not be any limitations on the number of dependents they could bring in. According to Thailand's Board of Investment(BOI) secretary-general Narit Therdsteerasukdi, the moves aimed to develop the country's position as a "global hub for investment and high-potential talent." They also intended to highlight the "ease of doing business" in the country.
Nepal: Opposition parties call for resignation of PM Sharma
On 17 January, the calls were made by the opposition party led by Pushpa Kamal for the resignation of Prime Minister KP Oli Sharma. The opposition parties had come together to address the government’s delay in calling for a parliamentary session, it's failure to boost the slow paced economic growth, poor policy delivery as well as bad governance. These demands come after PM Oli conveyed that the “constitution could be amended only in 2087 BS." In this regard, Pushpa Kamal Dahal said: "“If the prime minister himself says that the constitution amendment is not possible before 2087 BS, and the government is moving in the wrong direction, it has lost the morality to lead. So the prime minister should resign on moral grounds." The opposition group also underscored the growing frustration among the public as the "government's totalitarian actions" were against the larger interest of the country. They argued that the government is protecting the corrupt by blocking corruption campaigns.
India: ISRO successfully completes satellite docking mission
On 16 January, the Indian Scientific Research Organization successfully concluded it's first satellite docking mission. This marks a major development for the country as it opens the opportunity for many future space missions like the Chandrayaan-4 and establishing India's own space station. This development comes as the Space Docking Experiment (SpaDeX) launched an operation on 30 December. In the mission, two satellites that were launched separately, were to unite at an orbital altitude of 475 km on the basis of commands executed from the ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network, Bangalore.
Bhutan: Police and Tik Tok officials discuss measures to address user-interests
On 15 January, Kuensel reported that the Royal Bhutan Police (RBP) had a meeting with Tik Tok representatives to discuss how responsible social media use can be promoted, to identify different areas of collaboration and to have a positive online environment. At the meeting it was decided that the Bhutan InfoComm and Media Authority will address civil issues emerging from TikTok content and the RBP will probe into criminal issues
MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Syria: Central Bank orders freezing of Assad-linked bank accounts
On 23 January, Syria’s central bank issued a circular ordering all commercial banks to “freeze all bank accounts of companies and individuals linked to the defunct (Assad) regime” and sought the details of all frozen accounts within three working days. The move aimed to target businessmen linked with former President Bashar al-Assad’s government, who helped the regime survive the prolonged Syrian Civil War . The circular specifically named the Katerji Group, which gained prominence for its involvement in Syria’s oil trade under former President Bashar al-Assad. Notably, one of the group’s owners, Baraa Katerji, was killed in an airstrike in July — allegedly conducted by Israel. However, one banker speaking on condition of anonymity said that the circular would be difficult to implement because many Assad-linked businessmen used accounts named after other people or relied on front companies to park their money
Saudi Arabia: Riyadh actively in talks with US and Europe on lifting Syria sanctions
On 24 January, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farham met his Syrian counterpart, Asaad al-Shaibani, in Damascus. Following the meeting, Prince Faisal stated that Riyadh was engaged in active dialogue with Europe and the US to help lift Assad-era economic sanctions on Syria. The Saudi Minister reported that he “received positive signals” from these countries and emphasized “the urgency and need to quickly lift the sanctions on Syria to give this country the opportunity for recovery and stability.” Furthermore, Shaibani stressed that “Lifting the sanctions represents the fundamental step towards empowering the Syrian people.
Syria: Foreign Minister expresses optimism for economic revival at World Economic Forum
On 22 January, Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hassan al-Shaibani, delivered a speech at the 55th World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Switzerland’s Davos. Shaibani outlined that his country’s post-war economic reconstruction would follow in the footsteps of economic powers like Singapore and Saudi Arabia, with an emphasis on foreign investment. Accordingly, he stressed that “Syria's economic resources are diverse, and we have a lot of sectors - industry, tourism... of course, the economy in the future will be open and will open the road for foreign investment.” On the subject of Syria’s future constitution, Shaibani promised that “in Syria, all of us will be under the Constitution and under the rule of law.” Nevertheless, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader stressed that the removal of Assad-era sanctions remained the country’s priority: “The big challenge is economic sanctions. We inherited a lot of problems from the Assad regime but removing economic sanctions is key for the stability of Syria"
Syria: Government cancels Russian firm’s Tartous port contract
On 24 January, Reuters reported that Syria’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) transitional government cancelled an Assad-era contract with a Russian firm to operate and manage Syria’s Tartous port. Syrian sources stated that the contract was annulled because Russian-origin firm STG Stroytransgaz failed to fulfil the terms of its 2019 deal, including investments in the port’s infrastructure. The Tartous port is separate from Russia’s naval base in Tartous, whose status remains uncertain after former President Bashar al-Assad’s fall.
Lebanon: President appoints ICJ judge Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister
On 13 January, Lebanon’s new President, Joseph Aoun, appointed the former President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Nawaf Salam, as the country’s Prime Minister. He will replace the country’s Hezbollah-backed caretaker PM, Najib Mikati. Nawaf Salam’s appointment was the outcome of consultations and negotiations undertaken by the President, who had met multiple prominent members of the National Assembly on 12 January . In these discussions, Salam emerged as the frontrunner of anti-Hezbollah and anti-Islamist parties, whereas Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, backed Najib Mikati. Salam secured the backing of 78 out of 128 Assembly members, with only nine endorsing Mikati. Salam’s appointment brought an end to the Mikati’s caretaker government that had been ruling Lebanon since 2022. Moreover, it reflected Hezbollah’s weakened position following its war with Israel, the regime change in Syria, and weakening of Iran’s position.
Iraq: SDF and KDP leaders meet to form “united Kurdish stance”
On 16 January, the commander of the US-backed Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, met President Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) currently ruling Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomous Province. The meeting focused on “Kurdish political framework and addressing recent developments” and provided “an opportunity to form a unified Kurdish stance.” The meeting followed disagreements between the KDP-affiliated party, the Kurdish National Council in Syria (ENKS), and the SDF-affiliated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) over how Kurds — who live in both Syria and Iraq — should be represented in negotiations with other political forces active in Syria, especially the HTS. The discussions were organized against the backdrop of the US efforts to ensure cooperation between the SDF-AANES and HTS, with Washington slated to begin formal negotiations for a unified Syrian government in March.
Syria: UN High Commissioner for Human Rights calls for removal of sanctions on Syria
On 15 January, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, met HTS leader Muhammad al-Jolani and called for an “urgent reconsideration” of the Assad-era sanctions against Syria “with a view to lifting them.” Additionally, Turk visited the Sednaya prison complex, which had acquired notoriety during the Assad era as a site of torture, forced disappearances and arbitrary detention. After speaking with former detainees, Turk noted the “extreme brutality of the tactics” faced by prisoners, who were routinely tortured by guards or arbitrarily executed. Turk highlighted that withdrawal of sanctions was necessary to provide the country “every ounce of help they can get to rebuild a country that works for all Syrians.
AFRICA THIS WEEK
Gabon: To hold the presidential election in April
On 23 January, Africanews reported onthe announcement made by council of ministers for schedulingGabon’s presidential election on 12 April 2025. This follows the adoption of a new electoral code that allows military personnel to run for the election. It would enable General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the leader of the 2023 coup that ousted Ali Bongo Ondimba, to seek the presidency. Furthermore, Gabon’s constitution, which was adopted by referendum in November, permits a seven-year presidential term that is renewable one time.
Kenya: Visa-free travel for African countries
On 21 January, Kenya announced visa-free travel for citizens of all African countries except Somalia and Libya to boost tourism and regional integration. This eliminates the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system, which is being criticized as a “visa under another name.” Visitors can stay up to two months, while East African Community members can stay for six months. Due to security concerns, the government plans to enhance pre-screening and streamline entry processes.
Kenya: Signs economic partnership agreement with the UAE
On 16 January, Africanews reported that the UAE and Kenya signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The CEPA is planned to enhance investment in areas including information and communications technology (ICT), banking, tourism, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Kenya is one of the major growing economies in Africa with agriculture contributing 25 per cent and service sector contributing 53.6 per cent to the GDP. The non-oil trade between the UAE and Kenya reached USD 3.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. There was a 29.1 per cent increase from 2023. The CEPA additionally aims to eliminate trade barriers and aligns with the UAE’s strategy to double its economy to USD 800 billion by 2030.
Mozambique: Daniel Chapo swears in as President
On 15 January, Mozambique’s Frelimo party’s leader Daniel Chapo was sworn in as the president. Chapo vowed to prioritise youth employment, health, and education. However, opposition leader Venancio Mondlane claimed that the October election was rigged, rallied supporters for daily protests and vowed to “paralyse” the government. Chapo was sworn in after two months of violent protests against the controversial elections, with the civil society group, Plataforma Decide, estimating over 300 deaths.
Nigeria: Inflation hits 34.80 per cent
On 15 January, Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 34.80 per cent in December from 34.60 per cent in November. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that this marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The festive season caused the surge, with food inflation at 39.84 per cent. This inflation was marked by higher prices of staples like rice and sweet potatoes. Despite this, the government forecasts a drop to 15 per cent in 2025.
EUROPE THIS WEEK
France: Issues arrest warrant to Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad
On 23 January, French judges reportedly issued a fresh arrest warrant for Bashar al-Assad, the ex-Syrian leader. They cited complicity in war crimes committed in the barrel bomb attack on civilians in 2017 that killed a French-Syrian. According to the report in Euronews, the Paris Tribunal special war crime unit issued the arrest mandate this week connected with the death of Salah Abou Nabout caused by the bombing of his home in 2017. The attack confirmed the involvement of al-Assad. The investigation into Nabout's death began in 2018 when French judges issued arrest warrants for six senior Syrian army officers suspected of carrying out orders from al-Assad and concealing their involvement in war crimes linked to the bombing. Omar Abou Nabout, the son of Nabout said: "This case is the culmination of a long fight for justice that my family and I believed in from the very beginning." Two arrest warrants have been issued against al-Assad so far by different French judges. The first was on a chemical attack lodged in November 2023.
The UK: Signs 100 years partnership declaration with Ukraine
On 16 January, the UK government signed a 100-year partnership agreement with Ukraine. The agreement contains 10 pillars starting from defence, security, maritime, economy, energy, climate, justice, science and culture. The first pillar of defence focuses on establishing industrial bases, mutual defence services, expanding fighter jet coalition and maintaining defence infrastructure. The second pillar of security looks at promoting lasting peace in Ukraine, modernising security architecture, enhancing cyber security and protecting critical infrastructure. The third pillar on maritime aims for the quick restoration of Ukraine's occupied areas, building Royal Navy Mine vessels and improving Ukraine's interoperability in the maritime sector.
Croatia: Socialist-backed Milanovic wins presidential elections
On 12 January, Croatia's President Zoran Milanovic won the re-election. He is known to be apprehensive ofcritic the EU and NATO. In the announced results by the electoral commission, Milanovic secured 74 per cent of votes while the opposition leader Dragan Primorac from the present conservative party was able to win only 25 per cent. He said: "This is a big day for me personally, and I view this victory as recognition for my work, a kind of act of people’s trust in me." Milanovic is supported by the Social Democratic Party and results come amid the country's struggle with inflation, corruption scandals and labour shortages. Although the president's power is limited, the win is seen as a setbackfor conservative and pro-EU parties.
France: Far-right and far-left parties split over confidence vote
On 16 January, France24 reported that the confidence vote against the present government had fallen short allowing France's Prime Minister François Bayrou to continue. This comes after Bayrou's announcement to revive 2023 pension reform as a plan to cut "excessive" deficits for the 2025 budget. This led to the opposition's criticism resulting in a call for a confidence vote by the far-left. They were joined by the socialists however the far-right National Rally (RN) was against the confidence vote resulting in a divide. Jordan Bardella, leader of RN said: "We don't think a no-confidence vote should be a gadget to create a buzz."
About the Authors
Vani Vyshnavi J is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Political Science and History, in CHRIST (Deemed to be University) BGR campus. C Shraddha and Kumari Krishna are Research Interns at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Sayeka Ghosh is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Vaishak Sreekumar and Nova Karun K are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.
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Siddhima M
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Diya Madhavan
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Vaneeta
Dhriti Mukherjee
Ashwini Barla
Ayan Datta
Karthik Manoharan
Ramya B
Prajwal T V
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Vaneeta
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Ayan Datta
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Ronakk Tijoriwala
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Anu Maria Joseph
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IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
Torunika Roy
GP Team
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
Mugdha Chaturvedi
Dhriti Mukherjee
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Vaneeta
Kavithasri M
Mallika Joseph
Rohini Reenum
Padmashree Anandhan
Tiara Marie Warjri
GP Team
Femy Francis
Akhil Ajith
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
D Suba Chandran
Padmashree Anandhan
Femy Francis
Rohini Reenum
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Dhriti Mukherjee
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GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
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GP Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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IPRI Team
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GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
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GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Madhura Mahesh
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GP Team
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Madhura Mahesh
Harini Madhusudan
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Poulomi Mondal
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GP Team
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NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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NIAS Africa Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
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Padmashree Anandhan
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STIR Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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NIAS Africa Team
Naina Singh
GP Team
Amit Gupta
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GP Team
IPRI Team
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STIR Team
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GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Harshita Rathore
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Apoorva Sudhakar
Ankit Singh
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Sneha M
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Ankit Singh
Apoorva Sudhakar
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Harini Madhusudan
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Bhuvan Ningania
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Jeshil J Samuel
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
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Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
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IPRI Team
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Harini Madhusudan
Apoorva Sudhakar
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GP Team
GP Team
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Akriti Sharma
Avishka Ashok
Apoorva Sudhakar
Sukanya Bali
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Apoorva Sudhakar
Avishka Ashok
Harini Madhusudan
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Sukanya Bali
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
GP Team
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N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
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Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
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Harini Madhusudan
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GP Team
Rashmi Ramesh
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GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
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Harini Madhusudan
GP Team
IPRI Team
Sukanya Bali
GP Team
Savithri Sellapperumage
GP Team
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GP Team
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
Rashmi Ramesh
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Srikumar Pullat
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GP Team
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Harini Madhusudan
Lokendra Sharma
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Shreya Sinha
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GP Team
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Harini Madhusudan
Samreen Wani
GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
GP Team
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Harini Sha P
Rashmi Ramesh
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Jenice Jean Goveas
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GP Team
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Harini Madhusudan
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