The World This Week

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CWA # 1604, 2 March 2025
The World This Week
The Good, Bad and Ugly of the Trans-Atlantic Divide, and the Elections in Germany

  GP Team

The World This Week #300 Vol. 7 No. 9, 3 March 2025
 

D Suba Chandran, Vaneeta, Kavithasri M, Fleur Elizabeth Philip and Abhiruchi Chowdhury

On Ukraine’s Future: 
The Disastrous Meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump in Washington, and a Summit of hope in London on Ukraine
D Suba Chandran

Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance: A Disaster in Washington
On 28 February, when Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy landed in Washington, there was an expectation, that there would be an understanding, if not a formal deal between US and Ukraine on the future of the latter vis-à-vis Russia. The expectation was based on the earlier visits during the same week by UK’s Prime Miniter Starmer, and France’s President Macron, and also the widespread discussion on a possible deal between the US and Ukraine over access to latter’s mineral by the former. Trump was quoted to have stated it was “a very big deal. It could be a trillion-dollar deal…We’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Ukraine and Russia fighting a war that should have never ever happened.”

What happened during the visit was the opposite. There was neither a deal on the US having access to minerals in the US, nor an understanding between Trump and Zelenskyy over the future of Ukraine. According to news reports, Zelenskyy was asked to leave the White House where the meeting took place, after a public display of differences between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance.

The information available in the open domain is limited to understand what had happened behind the scenes. What was seen in the public was an ugly display of diplomacy with Vice President attacking President Zelenskyy, and President Trump warning about Ukraine not having any cards to play. 

Following are the major takeaways of the above meeting. First, the tensions over a mineral deal between the US and Ukraine. Zelenskyy after the initial hesitation seem to be willing to give access to the US (and other allies in the West), provided there was a security guarantee from the US. He wanted to use the mineral deal to secure Ukraine’s future. On the other hand, Trump wanted to have the deal for what the US has contributed to Ukraine in the past, without giving any security guarantee. The mineral deal, may get revived at a later stage, but is in cold storage after the visit. 

Second, an aggressive US approach to Ukraine. Vice President Vance accused Zelenskyy of being disrespectful to the Oval office. Whether Zelenskyy was disrespectful or told anything behind the scenes is not known now. But what is know after the meeting is divide between Kyiv and Washington over Putin and Russia. The open debate between Trump and Zelenskyy underlines how different and even opposite the two leaders over Putin, and whether a deal with Russia would yield results.

Third, the shift from the US to Europe on what should be the endgame for Ukraine. The meeting on 2 March at London is a result of what had happened in Washington. Zelenskyy’s failure at the White House and Trump’s aggression has galvanized the European leadership. 

Coalition of Willing: A Summit of hope in London
On 2 March, after the disastrous meeting of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy with President Trump and Vice-President Trump in the US, Europe came together to announce a “Coalition of Willing.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer invited the leaders of Europe to address the future of Ukraine. Calling Europe is “at a crossroads in history,” Starmer wants Europe to undertake the “heavy lifting” with the backing of the US. Leaders from Europe including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took part in the meeting that was also attended by Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

At the time of writing this note, though the details of the outcome of the above meeting is not clear, the fact that there was a meeting at a short notice, and the leaders of important European countries took part underlines urgency and importance of Ukraine for Europe.

Following are major takeaways of the above meeting in London. 

First the realization amongst the European leaders that Europe will have to take care of its own security. Even before the meeting on 2 March, European leaders have started discussing the need to increase their defence expenditure. 

Second, the urgent need to find an alternative discourse and a road map outside the Trump led one. The American President is on a one-to-one dialogue with Russian President, and seems to be willing to impose a deal on Ukraine, than including Kyiv in the discussion. 

Third, Europe is with Ukraine. The pace in which the London summit took place on 2 March and the criticism of Trump for mis-treating Zelenskyy, and the projection that the latter is a hero clearly says where Europe is. 

Fourth, the importance of US backing for any European deal. Starmer in his statement though referred to a heavy lifting by the coalition of willing, he also stated that the US should back that European plan.

UN Resolutions on the Ukraine War: Major Shift in the US
Vaneeta and Kavithasri M

What happened?
On 24 February, the United Nations adopted two resolutions. First, the European backed Ukrainian resolution which dealt with advancing a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Out of 193, 93 countries voted in favour of the resolution, with 18 against it and 65 abstaining. Other than Russia, US, North Korea, and Israel voted against the resolution. 

Another resolution adopted in the UNGA backed by the US after a few amendments to match the language supporting Ukraine, which dealt with the path to peace, mourning the loss of life won 93 votes in favor. 73 abstained with eight voting against. The US abstained whereas Russia voted against the above. 

On 24 February, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2774. A note published by the UN on the above stated: 

As the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine entered its fourth year, the Security Council today adopted a resolution mourning the tragic loss of life and reiterating that the principal purpose of the United Nations is to maintain international peace and security and peacefully settle disputes. Adopting resolution 2774 (2025) (to be issued as document S/RES/2774(2025)) by a vote of 10 in favour to none against, with 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom), the Council implored a swift end to the conflict and urged a lasting peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the five resolutions since March 2022. These resolutions have  largely condemned Russia’s actions, reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and called for diplomatic solution. The first major resolution was passed on 2 March 2022, which condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces. It was supported by 141 countries, with 35 abstaining and five voting against. (Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea). The second resolution was adopted on 24 March 2022 addressing the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. This resolution saw more abstentions compared to the first one. The third one, on 7 April 2022 resulted in Russia’s suspension from the UN Human Rights Council. Only 93 voted in favour, 24 countries voted against the resolution arguing that it was politically motivated. China, Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Syria and Vietnam voted against the resolution. On 12 October 2022, the fourth resolution condemned Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) following sham referendums. This resolution passed with a strong majority, further isolating Russia diplomatically. On 23 February 2023, a resolution passed to call for a comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine, emphasizing respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In this seven countries had voted against the resolution. 

Second, Russia’s  veto in the UNSC. Russia has repeatedly used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block resolutions. It has vetoed at least four UNSC resolutions related to the war.

Third, a note on how major countries voted for resolutions in UNGA and UNSC. In UNGA,  the US has consistently supported resolutions condemning Russia until 2024. Russia has always voted against resolutions condemning its actions in Ukraine. China has consistently abstained on most resolutions but voted against some that explicitly criticized Russia or imposed consequences. India has abstained from all major resolutions condemning Russia, maintaining a neutral stance.

France have voted in favor of resolutions condemning Russia. Brazil initially supported resolutions backing Ukraine but later moved toward abstention. South Africa has mostly abstained. 

In the UNSC the US has proposed and voted for multiple resolutions critical of Russia. However, in early 2024, it abstained from a UNSC resolution that aimed at a neutral approach to peace. China has abstained on key Security Council votes, including those calling for Russia’s withdrawal or accountability. It has not vetoed resolutions but has provided diplomatic backing to Russia. India has abstained on resolutions critical of Russia while advocating dialogue. France and UK have voted in favour of anti-Russia resolutions in the Security Council. However, France abstained from a US-led resolution in early 2024, which avoided directly blaming Russia. Brazil has abstained in key UNSC votes on Ukraine. South Africa, though not a permanent member, has pushed for a neutral stance on the conflict.

What does it mean?
First the changing stance on the war after Trump. Instead of pro -Ukrainian, the US wants to look at it from neutral perspective to find a peaceful solution, which puts them on opposite side with European partners. 

Second the declining support for Ukraine in the UN. As previously, UNGA saw more than 140 countries supporting and calling Russia aggressor, the time number has decreased to 93.

France, UK and the US: The Visit of President Macron and PM Starmer  to Washington
Fleur Elizabeth Philip

What happened?
On 24 February, French President Emmanuel Macron visited the White House which was followed by UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer visit on 27 February.

On 24 February, Macron when discussing Ukraine, stated that if Europe doesn’t move to guarantee Ukraine’s security, then Europe must act to contain Russia to ensure peace. He stressed the argument that the peace agreement must include guarantees that are assessed, checked, and verified. Macron addressed the issue of trade and Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the EU. Macron has called for fair competition, and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic. During the conference, interrupted Trump when he claimed that Europe was merely loaning money to Ukraine and would indirectly get the money back. Macron clarified that European nations provide real financial aid and emphasize their commitment to Ukraine’s cause.

On 27 February, an invitation by King Charles III was sent for President Donald Trump via PM Keir Starmer, and the President accepted it, with the remark that the last time he had been to the UK, was in 2019, with the late Queen Elizabeth II. Starmer responded to JD Vance’s comment at the Munich Security Conference about free speech in the UK and Starmer said that “We have had free speech for a long time in the UK and we are happy about it, and it will last for a very long time”. Starmer, in the joint conference with Trump, stated that the UK will increase its defense spending to 2.5 percent of its GDP, by 2027 with the long-term goal of reaching 3 percent.

What is the background?
First, Trump and Ukraine. Trump is looking for a quick ceasefire negotiation and trusting Russia’s commitment to abide by the peace agreement. The American military aid to Ukraine has been reduced. Trump has expressed his willingness to negotiate terms with Russia. Trump believes that instead of having a military commitment, US and Ukraine can have a better economic relationship. 

Second, the UK and France on Russia. French President Macron advocates for gradual negotiations by signing a truce and ensuring that the peace agreement signed should be lasting. PM Starmer wants that Ukraine and all the European allies should be a part of the negotiations.. He supports the military aid to Ukraine and advocates for a strong NATO involvement.

Macron and Starmer see Putin as an aggressor and demand accountability from Russia before the peace agreement is signed. They insist that Europe should be independent and not rely on the US, and they aim for a negotiated statement with Russia. France also wants to play it safe because of business ties with Russia. Starmer opposes any peace deal made by Russia. He states that the UK has been consistent in voicing its concerns regarding the actions executed by Russia. Starmer wants to put sanctions against Russian oligarchs and Russian Assets in London.

Third, economy, trade and the trans-Atlantic tensions. On trade, Macron wants to negotiate with Trump. France had criticized US policies on value added tax, digital tax, and subsidies for American industries. Macron wants a fair competition between both parties and to have more investments. 

What does it mean?
Trump envisages “a real trade deal,” which could see the UK being exempted from  tariffs. Starmer wants potential deals that could focus on advanced technologies, AI, and many more. The AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) strengthened UK-US defense ties, affecting trade relations.

Elections in Germany
Abhiruchi Chowdhury

What happened?
On 23 February, German citizens came out to vote for electing their next government. Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally Christian Social Union (CSU) together won the highest share of votes – 28.6 per cent (208 seats). They were closely followed by Alternative for Germany (AfD), which won 20.8 per cent of the votes (152 seats). Social Democratic Party (SPD), which headed the outgoing coalition, won 16.4 per cent votes (120 seats) followed by Greens which secured 11.6 per cent votes (85 seats). Die Linke secured 8.8 per cent of votes (64 seats), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 4.3 per cent.

What is the background?
First, a brief note on German Parliament and politics. At present, there are 630 seats in the Bundestag (German parliament). The seats are allocated to the political parties on the basis of the vote share they receive. Parties must cross the five per cent threshold in vote share to get parliament seats. To form a government, at least 316 seats are required. Since the end of World War II, German politics has been mainly dominated by CDU and SPD. However, both parties have been unable to form the government on their own and have required the support of the smaller parties. CDU has led most of the governments since 1949. The party aspires to represent large section of German population and is committed towards catholic social values. They are bent towards having liberal market economy. SPD came to power for the first time in 1969 since the end of World War II. It is Germany’s oldest political party and favors building a strong welfare state. AfD, formed in 2013, is currently led by Alice Weidel. It is described as extreme-right wing “Eurosceptic” party. The party defies the need for climate-friendly policies. The support base of AfD mainly reside in eastern provinces of Germany. US President’s close aide Elon Musk was seen to back AfD in the recent election. Die Linke, like AfD, has almost doubled its vote share in the recent elections. It is seen as an extreme-left leaning party. In the recent elections, the youth population of Germany have overwhelmingly voted for AfD and Die Linke.  

Second, a recap of the previous elections: In 2021, the government was led by a three-party coalition - SPD, FPD and the Greens. Prior to 2021, for 16 years, CDU’s Angela Merkel headed the government. In 2005, her party joined hands with the SPD to form the government. In 2009, it was FPD with which CDU-CSU formed alliance. In 2013, it yet again had to depend upon SPD for forming the government. In 2017, an internally divided SPD again supported CDU-CSU led government.

Third, major issues relating to 2024 elections. Ailing economy of Germany was one of the major electoral issues. (Germany’s reliance on Russia for its energy needs and the slowing down of Chinese economy, thereby decreasing the sales of German made products in China has impacted its economy)  The next big electoral issue was illegal immigration  With a rise in  occurrence of crimes committed by non-German citizens. and lone-wolf terror attacks have become important points of debate.

Fourth, a profile of the incoming Chancellor. It is anticipated that CDU-CSU would yet again join hands with the SPD to form the government. The government is likely to be led by CDU’s Friedrich Merz. Merz who was the parliamentary leader of CDU in 2000 was replaced by erstwhile Chancellor Angela Merkel. He again assumed the position in 2022 and has been working towards bringing back the focus of the party towards conservativism. He claims to be a trans-Atlanticist and wants to work towards betterment of US-Germany ties. He is inclined towards slashing taxes and favors a liberal outlook for the country’s economy. With himself being a member of European parliament (1989-1994), he is committed towards the idea of strong EU.

What does it mean?
First, the issue of illegal immigration. CDU took a strong position on the issue and intends to send away the illegal immigrants and asylum seekers from the border itself. However, with SPD as an alliance partner, it would find difficult to continue to stick to their hardline position.

Second, the difference in stance of CDU and SPD towards amending the rules of debt brake. CDU does not want to increase the borrowing the limit, whereas the SPD strongly favors changing the rules of debt brake in order to increase the borrowing threshold of the government.

Third, the threat of Trump tariffs. The incoming government faces the challenge of US’s threat of imposing 25 per cent tariffs on EU imports. This would create difficulties especially for German automobile industry. It remains to be seen how the new Chancellor would reduce Germany’s dependency on US and how a divided Europe could be re-strengthened.

TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Rohini Reenum, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Nuha Amina, Ayan Datta, C Shraddha, and Nova Karun K 

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: US to restrict Chinese investments in critical areas
On 21 February, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum for the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) to restrict any Chinese investment in critical areas. The order issued that China is: “exploiting our capital and ingenuity to fund and modernize their military, intelligence, and security operations, posing direct threats to United States security.” Investments would be allowed only if they serve American interests. China’s Ministry of Commerce commented on the new decree and asked the US to stop “politicizing” and “weaponizing” economic issues. 

China: Plans to lower the legal age of marriage
On 25 February, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) announced its plan to reduce the legal age for marriage to 18. This initiative is aimed at boosting fertility chances as the country faces a declining population. The CPPCC plans to submit a proposal to reduce the childbirth restriction in China to an incentive system. The legal age of marriage in China is 22 for men and 20 for women, which is amongst the highest around the world. A member of CPPCC Chen Songxi expressed that the legal age should be reduced to increase fertility and population, to unleash reproductive potential. In 2024, China’s marriage rate plummeted for a third consecutive year despite the government encouraging childbirth. 

China: Sends its first military attaché to Nigeria
On 25 February, SCMP reported that the first ever defense attaché from China is in Niger. Colonel Major Chen Xuming, on his arrival, stated that he was ready to work with the West African countries to further global security initiatives. Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria said: “Support Niger in strengthening its security capabilities and in the fight against terrorism and cross-border crime to preserve the peace and security of Niger and the region.” China has been supporting the military junta in Africa, in the Sahel, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Analysts believe that it is a void filled by the exit of French and US forces. 

China: US imposes additional 10 per cent tariffs over fentanyl issue
On 27 February, US President Donald Trump proposed 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports over the fentanyl issue. He also imposed 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods. The new tariffs will come right before the annual parliamentary meeting in China. A White House official said: “There are ongoing discussions with the Chinese, Mexico and Canada,” and that “We've gotten a good handle on the migration issue, but there are still concerns on the other issue of fentanyl deaths.” These tariffs are part of the Trump administration's cut down of foreign investments. Last week White House released a MoU of the “America First” investment strategy. The MoU noted that China is part of the list of foreign adversaries.

Taiwan: European lawmakers visit Taiwan for trade talks
On 25 February, a five-member European parliamentary delegation visited Taiwan for a five-day visit for talks on trade and cooperation. The group was led by vice chair of Latvia’s Renew Europe Group Ivar Ijabs. They will hold meetings with Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Wu Chih-chung and other officials and NGOs. 

Taiwan: Accuses China for damaging undersea cable
On 25 February, Taiwan’s coast guard detained a Chinese cargo ship after an undersea cable was damaged in the Taiwan Strait. The act was ruled as a grey-zone intrusion, which refers to an act of hostile interference but not crossing the threshold of war. The coast guard was alerted after Taiwan’s Chunghwa Telecom company reported a communication cable connecting Taiwan’s main island with Penghu was damaged. The detained cargo ship had been under close surveillance of the coast guard and was seen near the incident site. The ship was registered under a Togolese Flag but its other identification numbers were fake and the crew members were all Chinese nationals. The coastguard said that the ship was “China-funded.” This is the latest cable to be damaged with precedents in January 2025 and February 2023.

EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
South Korea: Birth rates increase after 9 years
On 26 February, Statistics Korea reported that the fertility rate of South Korea rose by 0.003 in 2024 and the average birth rate of South Korean women rose to 0.75 in 2024. The country has been facing decreasing birth rates and an increasing elderly population in the last decade. According to Statistics Korea, the increase in birth rates is attributed to increase in post-covid marriages, more childbearing age women and positive outlook towards marriage and childbirth. Although the number of newborns also increased by 3.6 per cent, South Korea remains at the bottom in fertility rates among Organization for the Economic Development and Cooperation countries.

Japan: Ruling coalition secures support from opposition party on 2025 budget 
On 25 February, Japan's ruling coalition and the opposition party Nippon Ishin no Kai, reached an agreement regarding the government's fiscal 2025 budget. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who heads the Liberal Democratic party (LDP), Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito and Nippon Ishin chief Hirofumi Yoshimura agreed to the budget in parliament. The education reforms and social insurance adjustments were agreed upon in exchange for the opposition party’s support for the budget. The deal would also increase spending on public and private education, reduce health insurance costs, provide free school lunches and lower nursery school fees. Although the deal initially faced internal resistance from Nippon Ishin lawmakers, it was ultimately approved.

Samao: PM survives no-confidence vote
On 25 February, Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa survived a no-confidence vote motion in the parliament. The motion was demanded by opposition leader Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi.  The demand for motion was due to the recent political turmoil where the chairman of the ruling FAST party and Samoa's Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries La'auli Leuatea Schmidt confirmed they were facing criminal charges. This led to Fiame removing La’auli and other members from the cabinet while retaining her position, leading to dissatisfaction among the FAST members. This promoted the call for a no-confidence vote, but ultimately, the party members came together and defeated the motion by 34 votes in favour and 15 against. Fiame, who was Samoa’s first female President, faced challenges right after winning the 2021 elections. 

Marshall Islands: Abstains from voting in UNGA for withdrawal of Russian troops
On 28 February, The Marshall Islands abstained from voting against a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly which called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The final vote count was 93 in favor, 18 against, and 65 abstentions. The Marshall Islands at first had decided to vote with Russia, but later abstained emphasizing its commitment to regional stability and diplomatic solutions. The Marshall Islands has historically aligned with the US in voting but has recently diverged on some key issues, including Israel-related resolutions.

Cook Islands: PM survives no-confidence vote
On 26 February, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown survived a no-confidence motion in the Parliament. He defeated the motion 13 votes to 9, The motion was put forward by the  leader of the opposition Cook Islands United Party, Teariki Heather. Although Heather had acknowledged that Brown had the majority, he argued that it was his duty to his people and his country to move this motion after recent questionable decisions by Brown.  

SOUTH  AND SOUTHEAST ASIA THIS WEEK
India: EU looks to enhance cooperation in trade, security and technology with India
On 28 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the President of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, agreed to cooperate in trade, security, and technology to enhance the mobility of the Indian workforce and students. This agreement emerged during the EU President and the College of Commissioners' visit to New Delhi. During their two-day visit, 20 ministerial-level meetings were held across different sectors. In terms of technology and innovation, PM Modi stated about plans to increase "cooperation in semiconductors, AI, high-performance computing and 6G" and even " initiate a Space Dialogue.”  Additionally, he welcomed the EU's decision to join the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative. This visit comes as tensions have emerged between the US and EU over former’s threat to levy tariffs.

Bangladesh:  Shipping Corporation announces to buy six container ships from South Korea to curb foreign currency losses
On 23 February, Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC) announced its decision to purchase six container ships from South Korea with a capacity of 2,500-3,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).  This decision comes as Bangladesh seeks to break away from the foreign currency losses it incurs by paying non-Bangladeshi ships. 
 
Bhutan:  Aims to become a developed economy by 2050
On 22 February, Kuensel online reported that Bhutan is aiming to become a developed economy by 2050, in line with King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck's vision. It is called the 10X National Economic Vision, which aims at attaining an eight per cent GDP growth through a strong, inclusive, and sustainable economy and the promotion of Gross National Happiness (GNH). The roadmap to economic development is guided by transformation in five key areas in a diversified and private sector-led economy. Bhutan seeks to become a leader in technology, tourism, agriculture, and sustainability while posturing itself as a knowledge and innovation-driven economy. Simultaneously, this growth should be achieved by prioritizing carbon neutrality, GNH, and environmental responsibility.

Pakistan:  Azerbaijan and Pakistan aim to boost “bilateral investment”  
On 24 February, during his visit to Azerbaijan, PM Shehbaz Sharif held discussions with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku. Both countries agreed to expand the “bilateral investment” to USD 2 billion. PM Sharif highlighted the inadequate current state of trade between the two countries worth USD 40 million and stated that “all the political parties in Pakistan” were on the same page when it came to enhancing ties with Azerbaijan. PM Sharif was optimistic that the agreed MoUs between the two countries would play an important role in improving the economy. An important MoU was on cooperation in the “Machike-Thallian-Tarujanna white oil pipeline project” between the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization and Pakistan State Oil. He also pointed out the enhancement of defence ties, with both countries agreeing to collaborate for the “manufacturing of defence equipment.”  PM Sharif praised Baku’s proposal for building an “international infrastructure corridor.” He stressed the importance of the Gwadar port. Further, he spoke of a “permanent bureau” in Pakistan that would have members from both countries. The permanent bureau will make use of AI for formulating “effective mechanisms,” which would reap benefits to both countries. 

Pakistan: Crown Prince of UAE visits Pakistan, inks five agreements in "banking, mining, railways and infrastructure development" 
On 27 February, Crown Prince of UAE Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, started his one-day visit to Pakistan. During his visit, the two countries agreed on "five accords" for collaborating in "banking, mining, infrastructure and railways." The signing ceremony also included the presence of Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir and members of the federal cabinet. Prince Al Nahyan and PM Sharif deliberated on reshaping the steadfast "political relations" between the two countries into a "mutually beneficial economic partnership." PM Sharif expressed content regarding the increased level of cooperation between the two countries. Prince Al Nahyan also expressed UAE's commitment to back the economic growth of Pakistan. Prince Al Nahyan held a separate discussion with President Zardari. President Zardari also honoured the Crown Prince with the country's highest civilian award Nishan-e-Pakistan. This visit comes as both countries inked accords worth more than USD 3 billion in areas like "railways, economic zones and infrastructure" in January.  In the last 20 years, the UAE has infused close to USD 10 billion in Pakistan. UAE is also the "third largest trading partner" of Pakistan. Pakistan depends heavily upon the remittances sent by more than one million of its citizens residing in the UAE.  

Pakistan: Uzbekistan and Pakistan to increase “bilateral trade to USD two billion   
On 26 February, Pakistan PM Sharif and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met at Tashkent and talked about “regional connectivity” and agreed to increase “bilateral cooperation,” in “trade, tourism, energy, and cultural relations.” Both agreed to enhance the “bilateral trade volume” to USD two billion in the coming four years. This number is currently at USD 400 million. They also referred to the significance of the “Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway project” that is expected to enhance “regional trade and connectivity.” Both deliberated upon strengthening “bilateral tourism” especially emphasizing collaboration between Termez, Bukhara, Lahore, and Karachi. At a joint press conference, they shared the decision to work on the “Trans-Afghan railway” linking South Asia and Central Asia.

MIDDLE-EAST THIS WEEK
Syria: EU suspends sanctions in key areas
On 24 February, the EU States reportedly suspended a wide range of sanctions against Syria, effective immediately. These include sanctions in the crucial sectors such as energy, transport, banking and reconstruction. The decision followed a meeting in Brussels, where EU Foreign Ministers decided to change their sanctions policy towards the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime in Syria. However, the EU countries shall retain several Assad-era sanctions on Syria in domains such as arms trading, dual-use commodities, surveillance software, and international trade of Syrian cultural and heritage artefacts. Moreover, the EU notified that the member States would continuously monitor the situation within Syria. The EU’s removal of sanctions marked a diplomatic success for the HTS, whose leaders have been calling for the same since they assumed power in December 2024. 

Syria: HTS led government holds National Dialogue for discussing new Syrian constitution 
On 25 February, Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led (HTS) transitional government held a National Dialogue. The one-day conference paved the way for drafting a new Syrian Constitution, apart from stressing freedom of expression and human rights. Addressing the conference, Syria’s President and HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa called upon Syrians to “to stand united and hand in hand to heal the wounds and wash away the pains after decades of dictatorship.” New Syria’s draft constitution, stated Houda Atassi, a member of the Preparatory Committee for the National Dialogue, would achieve “a balance between authorities, establishing justice, freedom, and equality, and laying the foundation for a state of law and institutions.” 

The Gulf: GCC criticizes Israel’s attacks on Syria
On 27 February, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jassim Mohammed Al-Badawi criticized Israel’s attacks in Southern Syria, calling them a flagrant violation of international law and agreements, as well as a threat to regional security and stability. Al-Badawi stated, “The repeated attacks by the occupying forces underscore their persistent approach to undermining opportunities for peace,” stressing “the importance of urgent and decisive action by the international community to put an end to these flagrant violations and prevent the escalation.” The GCC statement referred to Israel’s air raids of 25 November, where the Israel Air Force (IAF) struck what it called military bases, command centres, and weapons caches, in southern Syria and near Damascus. Israeli fighter jets struck the town of Kisweh, a mere 20 km south of the Syrian capital, and the southern province of Deraa.
 
Lebanon: PM Salam wins confidence vote with Hezbollah-bloc’s support
On 27 February, Lebanon’s new government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, won a confidence vote in the National Assembly.  Salam’s government also won the support of the Hezbollah-led Shia Islamist bloc, despite the government’s critical position towards the group. Winning 95 out of 128 seats in the National Assembly, Salam adopted a stance that echoed with that of President Michel Aoun. The Prime Minister, a former Chief Jurist of the International Court of Justice, stressed that although the government would resist all “occupation,” only the State had the right to bear arms. Although Hezbollah did not initially support Salam’s Prime Ministerial bid, the Shia group endorsed the ICJ jurist at the eleventh hour, indicating its weakened political capabilities following the war with Israel. Salam also received the support of multiple Hezbollah-aligned parties, including the Amal Movement, the Marada Movement, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, two anti-Hezbollah parties, namely the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb, also backed his government. Meanwhile, 12 legislators opposed the government and four others abstained from voting.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Egypt: Foreign minister holds discussion with his Sudanese counterpart 
On 23 February, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty held discussions with Sudanese counterpart Ali Youssef El-Sherif in Cairo. They discussed the possible formation of a parallel government by the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and allies. Youssef stated: “No one will recognize the so-called parallel government to the Sudanese government.” He added that foreign countries will not recognize the parallel government. Abdelatty informed that the ministers talked about the upcoming Arab Summit and the future of Gaza.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Germany: Coalition talks begin between CDU and SPD
On 28 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Germany's CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz, had begun preliminary coalition talks with the SPD following the federal elections. The conservative bloc secured 28.5 per cent votes, while the SPD came third with 16.4 per cent. Merz affirmed on not joining with the far-right AfD, which secured 20.8 per cent. He stressed on holding the political "firewall" against AfD. Although the SPD agreed to the negotiations, co-leader Lars Klingbeil stated that a coalition was not guaranteed. The two groups remain divided on key issues such as migration, tax policy, and public spending. Especially on the debt brake, Merz favors continuation of a special defense fund while the SPD calls for lifting it to boost the federal budget.

Austria: Three party coalition formed after months of political deadlock
On 28 February, Austria's center-right People's Party (ÖVP), center-left Social Democrats (SPÖ), and centrist Neos party agreed to form a three-party coalition, sidelining the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) despite its election victory with 29 per cent of the vote. The coalition, Austria's first of its kind since the 1940s, comes after months of deadlock and tough negotiations. The new government plans to curb inflation through rent freezes while tightening immigration laws, including stricter family reunification rules and a hijab ban for girls under 14. The coalition's cohesion is uncertain, especially given the NEOS’s' minor role and internal divisions, with budget concerns and policy differences posing significant challenges. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl criticized the alliance as a "coalition of losers" and called for fresh elections.

Romania: Investigation launched against far-right politician for promoting electoral misinformation
On 28 February, Romanian prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into far-right politician Calin Georgescu, 2024's annulled presidential election front-runner, on charges of forming an antisemitic organization, promoting fascist figures, illegal weapon possession, and electoral finance misinformation. Raids on 47 addresses linked to Georgescu uncovered weapons and hidden cash. Georgescu denied wrongdoing, calling the investigation politically motivated, while about 100 supporters protested in Bucharest. The 2024 election was annulled after allegations of Russian interference and fraud, with Georgescu's controversial praise of Romanian fascist leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin adding to the complexity. Despite legal troubles, he remains the leading candidate in polls for the upcoming election in May, although his eligibility to run for it is uncertain.

About the Authors
Vaneeta and Kavithasri M are postgraduate students at Pondicherry University. Fleur Elizabeth Philip is a Research intern at National Institute of Advanced Studies. Abhiruchi Chowdhury is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. C Shraddha is a Research Intern at NIAS. Nova Karun K is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. Ayan Datta is a postgraduate student at the University of Hyderabad.

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