The World This Week

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CWA # 1654
The World This Week
The US-China Tariff War, and the US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

  GP Team
13 April 2025

The World This Week #306 Vol. 7 No. 15, 14 April 2025
 

Femy Francis & Rohini Reenum

The US-China Tariff War: Trump proposes, Xi aggravates
Femy Francis

What happened? 
On 11 April, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced 125 per cent tariffs against the US, noting this as their last move against the “unilateral bullying”. This comes after on 09 April the US President Donald Trump imposed 145 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods. This comes after a series of tariffs and duties were imposed by the US since February. 

On 09 April, US President Donald Trump also announced a 90-day halt on “reciprocal tariffs” on countries that have not retaliated, unlike China. China’s President Xi Jinping said: “There are no winners in a trade war, and going against the world will only lead to self-isolation.” China’s Ministry of Commerce said: “If the US escalates tariffs, China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests,” and warned that “China will fight to the end.” While Trump remains optimistic in securing a deal with China, he said: “Think we'll end up working something out that's very good for both countries.”

What is the background? 
First, a brief not on US-China trade. Trade between China and the US has grown steadily from USD 2.5 billion in 1979 to USD 688.3 billion in 2024.  For China, the US is its largest trading partner, while for the US, China is the third, following Mexico and Canada. For China, its exports to the US include transmission equipment, computers, machine parts, batteries, and motor vehicle parts. For the US, its major exports to China are soya beans, crude oil, petroleum gas, cars, vaccines, and machinery. 

Second, the trade deficit for the US vis-à-vis China, during the last ten years. Its trade deficit with China is the largest compared to the others. In 2015, the US trade deficit against China was USD 367 billion, rose of USD 418 in 2018. Since then, the US has been working to reduce this gap; the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed in 2018, was an attempt to reduce the American trade deficit with China. In 2023 Mexico overtook China as the largest trading partner. In 2020, the US trade deficit against China came down to USD 307 billion. However, the trade deficit remains, in favour if China; in 2023, it was USD 279 billion, and in 2024, it was USD 295 billion.

Third, the American dependency on the Chinese goods. China plays a critical role in the production of the global electronics supply chain, producing semiconductors and circuit boards. 90 per cent of the supply of refined rare metals comes from China, vital for smartphones and high-tech military equipment. US firms like Apple, Nvidia, Cisco, Dell, and Intel are all dependent on China’s manufacturing industries. In 2023, China exported USD 146 billion worth of electronics to the US, reports the US International Trade Commission. Apparel industries, including the MAGA merchandise, are made in China. Major retailers like Gap, Nike, and Walmart also get their products from China. Other industries, like the auto and pharmaceutical industries, face the threat of inflationary prices. On 12 April, Trump announced the possible exemption of smartphones and computers from the tariffs. 

Fourth, Beijing’s readiness and diversification. China’s economy has been reorienting its investments from infrastructure and manufacturing industries to high-tech and AI firms. It now focuses on boosting its domestic consumption so as to not rely on exports. China has been concerned about the unilateral crackdown on the Chinese economy, which came true. Though the US is a major market for China, through BRI, CPEC, CMEC, LMC, and Shanghai cooperation, Beijing has diversified its market to countries other than the West. China is today a major trading partner for most of the countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. China’s government subsidy policies are committed to protecting their industries and private firms.

What does it mean? 
First, the global repercussions of tariff war. The US-China tariff war has shaken the stock market. The tariff tension has created differences inside the Trump administration as his main supporter, Tesla head Elon Musk, heavily relies on Chinese manufacturing. European Union is worried about the diversion of unsold cheap Chinese products to Europe. 

Second, likely new economic formations. Under the threat of uniliteral tariffs, countries have formed alliances to protect their economies. Trade and bank heads of China, Japan, and South Korea have affirmed to work together and support each other's economies as they face “unprecedented times.” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi also met with the President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, agreeing to continue trade cooperation under the threat of tariffs.
 
Also read
D Suba Chandran, "Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs: What, Why and What Next," 7 April 2025)

US, Iran and the Nuclear Negotiations
Rohini Reenum

What happened? 
On 11 April, Iran agreed to give the US-Iran nuclear talks a “genuine chance.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said that Iran is “giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance.”

On 10 April, Iran threatened to expel International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from the country in response to “external threats.” Iran was responding to the threats made by US President Donald Trump under his “maximum pressure” campaign where he also threatened to bomb Iran.

On 7 April, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Tehran were set to hold “direct talks” in Oman. On the same day, Iran confirmed that it would engage in “indirect talks” with the US.

What is the background? 
First, a brief note on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015. Referred as the Iran nuclear deal, it was signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries (US, China, France, Russia, Germany and the UK). Earlier, in 2010, due to suspicions that Tehran was developing a nuclear weapon, the US, UN and the EU had imposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran. Protracted negotiations resulted in the JCPOA, that imposed limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme, especially the level of nuclear enrichment it could undertake. Iran agreed to not pursue the production of highly enriched Uranium or Plutonium which could be used in a nuclear weapon. Iran also agreed to centrifuge reduction (in both number and type) and open its nuclear facilities to more extensive international inspections, particularly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The deal proposed that a UN arms embargo would also be lifted in five years time if Iran held its end of the bargain. This deal was for a period of 15 years (until 2030).

Second, Trump and the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA unilaterally in 2018 calling it a “bad deal.” He cited three reasons: the JCPOA did not address Iran’s ballistic missile programme, it did not curtail “Iran’s proxy warfare in the region” and the JCPOA had some “sunset clauses” that would in the future allow Iran to resume its nuclear weapons programme. 

Third, the US-Iran divergences post-2018. Trump re-imposed crippling sanctions on Iran’s banking and oil sectors. Iran accused the US of unilateralism and the EU of yielding to it. Trump also launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran to coerce it to the negotiating table, however, the tactic backfired. Iran significantly rolled back on its commitments in the subsequent years and allegedly ramped up its efforts to build a nuclear weapon. Iran began breaching its commitments under the JCPOA in 2019 and embarked on enriching uranium to higher concentrations. Following top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani’s targeted killing by the United States in 2020, “Iran announced that it would no longer limit its uranium enrichment.” 

Fourth, Iran’s work towards enriched Uranium. Since 2018 and sanctions after that, Iran continued its focus to enrich Uranium. During this period Israel made several covert attempts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear programme with targeting of nuclear scientists and nuclear facilities, which only strengthened its ambitions further on enriching Uranium. In February 2025, the IAEA revealed that Iran has amassed sufficient (275kg (606lb) enriched Uranium “to 60 percent purity, which is near weapons grade.” Since the US’s withdrawal, Iran has also “increasingly limited” the IAEA’s access to its nuclear facilities.

What does it mean? 
First, Trump’s U-turn on Iran, in his second term. Trump has always been keen on a new, comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran. However, an expanding regional conflict in the Middle East, with US’s longtime ally Israel and geopolitical foe Iran, in direct confrontation has added urgency to the matter. Perhaps, for Trump, this is a humbling realization that the US engagement, even though coercive, is a better strategy to handle Iran’s nuclear weapons pursuit. 

Second, Iran’s reluctant participation in the talks. Despite the initial rhetoric, Tehran also seems be willing to engage with the US, which is indicative of its altered regional position and its recognition of it. With the relative weakened position of its non-state allies/proxies- Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah, the loss of its only regional state ally – Syria, and an economy reeling under years of sanctions, Iran perhaps is looking to recuperate, recalibrate and respond to this new reality. A nuclear deal would provide a strategic breathing space.

Third, a deal would also be a win for nuclear non-proliferation efforts given that not only Iran would roll back on its nuclear weapons programme but Saudi Arabia, which has threatened to go nuclear if Iran does, would also be assuaged. 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Nuha Amina, Ayan Datta, C Shraddha, and Nova Karun K 

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Trump increases tariffs on Chinese goods to 145 per cent
On 10 April, US President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, making the total 145 per cent from the last 125 per cent. Trump called the volatility by China as “transition difficulty.” This comes after China imposed 84 per cent tariffs on US imports. Trump termed this as a bad deal from the Chinese side. These new tariffs include reciprocal duties as well as the tariffs included by the lack of CPC measures to control fentanyl production. The stock market saw a rise as Trump announced that he would pause the tariff imposition for 90 days for countries that did not retaliate, unlike China. While further punishing the offenders, which is China. The baseline tariff will remain at 10 per cent for all countries. The tariff on China comes into immediate effect. China’s embassy in Washington’s spokesperson, Liu Pengyu said: “If the US truly wants to talk, it should let people see that they’re ready to treat others with equality, respect and mutual benefit,” and that “China does not want to fight these wars but is not scared of them.”

China: Ukraine’s President claims that 155 Chinese nationals are fighting for Russia
On 10 April, BBC reported on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky's claims that 155 Chinese nationals are fighting with Russia against Ukraine. This comes after Ukraine captured two Chinese soldiers. This is the first time Ukraine found evidence that China was sending personnel to fight in the war. This, they say, stands contradictory to the neutral and peaceful stand China is taking on the world stage when it calls for a ceasefire between the two countries. Zelensky also believes that there are many from China in the Russia- Ukraine conflict. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Lin Jian said: “China is neither the creator nor a party to the Ukrainian crisis. We are a staunch supporter and active promoter of the peaceful resolution of the crisis.” Lin also informed that China has always required its nationals to stay away from any kind of armed conflict, especially refraining from participating in military operations. Zelensky noted that the Chinese issue is serious and said: “There are 155 people with surnames, with passport data - 155 Chinese citizens who are fighting against Ukrainians on the territory of Ukraine.” When interrogated, the Chinese detainee informed them that this was their first time in combat and that they had never fired a gun before. Others also mentioned that there were Chinese soldiers who dispersed after the crossfire.

China: Top Chinese think tank CASS shuts down
On 06 April, SCMP reported that the think tank, China’s Academy of Social Science’s (CASS) closure and that the internal projects were being transferred to the Institute of Economics. It was announced that the public policy research center was being closed and that any activity under the institute would be deemed illegal. The part-time workers in the think tanks will be returning to their original institutes, and the remainder will be dismissed from their position, as noted by the CASS website. “All activities carried out in the name of the former research center are illegal, and legal responsibility lies with the perpetrators,” said the Institute of Economics. The think tank was headed by economist Zhu Hengpeng, who was the deputy director of the Institute of Economics, last seen in public in April 2024. CASS was home to liberal economists who were vocal about the authorities in China, leading to questioning the loyalty towards the Communist Party.

China: Discussion on AI models, quantum technology, and industrial eco-systems take centre stage at Zhongguancun Forum 2025 
On 07 April, People’s Daily Online reported on the 2025 Zhongguancun (ZGC) Forum Annual Conference, theme “New Quality Productive Forces and Global Technology Cooperation.” The forum focused on AI agents and 100 intelligent robots volunteering throughout the event. The ZGC meeting started in 2007, aimed for steady growth in scientific and technological innovation. Since then, the ZGC has become the platform for technological exchange and cooperation. The discussion centered on the future of emerging technologies and large AI models, quantum technology, and industrial eco-systems. The event also unveiled “China's National Innovation Index Report 2024” and its top 10 scientific advances. They also introduced 100 new tech products, international tech innovations, and a launched smart service platform. They also signed 11 major cooperation agreements for tech and innovation development. Director General of the World Intellectual Property Organization, Daren Tang expressed hope for stronger collaboration and China becoming the major tech hub.

China: Pledges USD 137 million for earthquake humanitarian assistance to Myanmar
On 10 April, China pledged USD 137 million for emergency humanitarian assistance in Myanmar after the earthquake, according to China’s embassy in Myanmar. The earthquake first struck on 28 March of 7.7 magnitude, killing 3,645 people and toppling several buildings. The embassy informed that the fund would give urgent food, medicine, and prefabricated homes for the victims. This will also pay for the medical, epidemic prevention, and disaster assessment needs. China was one of the first responders and even sent personnel for the rescue mission. These included medical workers, earthquake experts, rescue dogs, and field hospital workers. They also sent their own search and rescue team as well.

China: Announces reduction in US film imports, reports China’s Film Administration
On 10 April, China announced that they will reduce the number of US films imported, and since then, stock performances of the big media houses fell. US firm Walt Disney fell by 6.7 per cent, Comcast Corporation by 6.79 per cent, Netflix by 2.57 per cent, Paramount Group by 1.97 per cent, and Sony Group by 0.22 per cent. China’s Film Administration spokesperson noted that the US imposition of tariffs also impacts the Chinese audience’s interest in US films and media outlets. This reflects the market principles and the audience preference, says the Film Administration from China. China is the second largest film market in the world, and they have always pursued a high level of opening to all kinds of films. The spokesperson informed that they will introduce more exciting films from other countries to cater to the Chinese film market demand.

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC THIS WEEK
South Korea: Interim President and cabinet confirms the Presidential election date as 03 June
On 08 April, the government formally designated 3 June as the date of the next presidential election following the removal of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. The decision was made at a Cabinet meeting four days after the Constitutional Court upheld his impeachment. Under Article 68 of the Constitution, a new election must be held within 60 days of a vacancy, and the date has been set as a temporary public holiday. The National Election Commission began early candidate registration, with candidates required to register by 11 May and the official campaign period starting on 12 May. The law also mandates that any public servant running for president must resign at least 30 days before the election, making 4 May the deadline.  

South Korea: Stock market and currency plunges due to US tariffs
On 07 April, South Korea’s currency and stock market plunged amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and retaliatory measures by China. The Korean won opened at 1,462.0 won per dollar and weakened to 1,468.65 won as of 10 AM. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index lost 103.56 points, or 4.2 per cent, to 2,361.86 in the first 15 minutes of trading. The bourse operator issued a sidecar order that halted program purchasing for five minutes after the Kospi 200 index shed over 5 per cent for more than 1 minute. The decline coincided with Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, including a 25 per cent duty on South Korean goods to take effect on Wednesday and a 10 per cent baseline tariff on all imports starting Saturday. Global market fears intensified when China announced a 34 per cent tariff on US goods, leading Wall Street to record its worst week since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq composite falling 6 per cent, 5.5 per cent, and 5.8 per cent, respectively. 

South Korea: Acting President discuss trade, security, and cooperation with US President
On 08 April, Acting President Han Duck-soo had a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump. The call marked the first dialogue between Korea’s acting president and the US president since Trump’s inauguration and the subsequent ouster of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. During the call, Han emphasized Korea’s commitment to cooperate with the US on shipbuilding, LNG, a joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline, and trade balance. Both leaders agreed to continue constructive ministerial-level discussions and to coordinate closely on North Korea’s denuclearization policy. Trump, via his social media account on Truth Social, mentioned topics including Korea’s trade surplus, tariffs, shipbuilding, large-scale US LNG purchases, and military protection, suggesting the possibility of a “great DEAL” for both countries. They also expressed support for expanding trilateral cooperation with Japan, emphasizing that strong alliances are crucial for regional peace and security.

Japan: Trump orders review of steel merger between US and Nippon Steel
On 07 April, US President Donald Trump directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to conduct a second national security review of Nippon Steel’s proposed purchase of US Steel. The review aims to determine if any “future actions” are needed. The deal had previously been reviewed, but the outcome was deferred by former President Joe Biden, who blocked the transaction in early January. Under the new order, CFIUS has 45 days to submit its recommendation, after which the president will decide whether to greenlight the merger. Following the announcement, US Steel’s share price soared, closing 16.22 per cent higher than the previous weekend. Both Nippon Steel and US Steel have expressed confidence that an objective, fact-based review would demonstrate that the partnership strengthens American economic and national security. Both companies have also filed a lawsuit seeking to revoke Biden’s decision.

Japan: Expresses interest in joining NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine
On 08 April, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani announced that Japan is interested in joining NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) based at a US base in Wiesbaden, Germany. During talks in Tokyo with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, he stated that Japan wishes to deepen security cooperation with NATO, learn lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and further solidify ties with the largely European alliance. Although details remain to be discussed, including whether any Japan Self-Defense Force members will be involved, Japanese participation is not expected to involve combat in line with its post-World War II tradition. Rutte remarked that China, North Korea, and Russia are stepping up military exercises that undermine global security, emphasizing that what happens in Euro-Atlantic matters affects the Indo-Pacific and vice versa. Both sides agreed on the importance of crisis response, cyber defense, maritime security, and defense industrial cooperation, with Japan’s inclusion seen as a significant boost to regional security ties.

Japan: Tokyo stock market plunges amid tariff war between US and China
On 11 April, Nikkei stock average in Tokyo fell by 5.48 per cent. This came after both  the United States and China hiked tariffs on each other. This fuelled fears that stagnation in trade between the two economic superpowers would trigger a global economic decline. An official at a foreign capital-backed securities firm noted that stocks did rise after the US halted some reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. However, the US levies on China increased to 145 per cent, reigniting economic concerns and worries about corporate profits. Additionally, the rapid strengthening of the Yen contributed to renewed selling pressure.

Pacific nations: Leaders furious over US tariffs
On 09 April, RNZ reported that leaders in Pacific nations are expressing disappointment and confusion over the US tariffs. Fiji’s Finance Minister described the 32 per cent tariff as unfair, and Tokelau’s government spokesperson stated he does not understand how the region threatens the US economy. President Donald Trump’s charts claim that Fiji charges the US 63 per cent tariffs, citing currency manipulation and trade barriers, but the Fijian government disputes these figures, noting that the US calculated reciprocal tariffs based on a trade deficit. In 2023, Fiji exported USD 366 million to the US while importing USD 158 million, which resulted in a high tariff since Fiji exports more than it imports from the US. Fiji’s Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Biman Prasad explained that 72 per cent of imported US goods are not imposed with any tax, while on 25 per cent goods  less than 5 per cent tax is levied, contrasting sharply with the recently imposed 32 per cent tariff on goods from Fiji by the US. Rashad said: “We feel that using trade deficit to calculate the reciprocal tariff rate is wrong, a trade deficit is not a tariff.” Tokelau spokesperson Aukusitino Vitale remarked that the US appears to know very little about the Pacific region.

New Zealand: Eases visa restrictions for visitors from Pacific Island Forum countries                                                      
On 11 April, New Zealand announced that the government would ease visa restrictions for visitors from Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) countries., Starting from early July, visitors applying for a visitor visa for Aotearoa may be eligible for a multi-entry visa allowing them to visit as many times as they want for 24 months, an increase from the current 12-month period, while the maximum stay rules remain unchanged. In addition, from November this year, PIF member-country passport holders traveling from Australia with an Australian visa – work, student, or family – would no longer need a visa to visit New Zealand for up to three months. Travellers will need to complete a New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority (NZeTA) to enter the country. New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters informed that the government wants to make it easier and cheaper for people from across the Pacific to visit New Zealand. Immigration Minister Erica Stanford added the measure would simplify the process for those coming from Australia and help facilitate multiple trips, ensuring a stable and predictable immigration system. Pacific leaders have increasingly advocated for the free movement of people in the region, and a petition launched by the Green Party last month calls on the government to extend visa-free travel to visitors from Pacific Island countries

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
ASEAN: Chooses not impose any tariffs on the US 
On 10 April, finance ministers of ASEAN member states gathered in Malaysia to discuss their response to the American tariffs. The ministers in Kuala Lumpur, emphasized their commitment to pursue negotiations with the US, address trade-related concerns, and create open communications and collaborations that ensure balanced and sustainable relationships. The member nations have concluded by stating that they would not impose any counter-tariffs on the US. ASEAN expressed its support for the World Trade Organization as the primary platform for dialogue and how it can help intervene if there are any disagreements in the trade between the US and Southeast Asia. 

Sri Lanka: Growth shrinks by 0.5 per cent, says census report 
On 8 April, Daily Mirror highlighted a recent report titled Census of Population and Housing of 2024 by the Department of Census and Statistics. It indicates a shrink of 0.5 per cent growth, an all-time low since 1871. In 2024 end the population was 21,763,170 compared to 20,359,439 in 2023 hinting at a 6.9 per cent increase on an annual basis. In a statement, Country Representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Sri Lanka Kunle Adeniyi alluded this to the increase in aged population by 2041 as there one in four people will be over 60. In another report, the number of births in Sri Lanka indicated a 30.8 per cent fall along with the number of marriages, by 14.7 per cent from before COVID-19 to 2024. In the same period, deaths also rose by 17.2 per cent. Regarding the reduction in the paediatric population, the news report quotes a paediatric consultant linking it with the migration of the young population and their unwillingness to marry to have children in the current economic crisis.

Bangladesh: Economy expected to take a hit due to US tariffs
On 7 April, Moody’s Ratings reported that the banks of Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Thailand would be the most hard hit by the US’ reciprocal tariff policy in the Asian region. Moody’s stated that the higher tariffs will have a “higher-than-usual impact” on these countries as their economies are export-dependent. It said: "In these three countries, a moderation in exports to the US will hurt economic growth, straining loan growth for banks and hurting loan quality.” Focusing on Bangladesh, it stated that tariffs will further sap the already “weak operating environment for banks amid a slowdown in the country's economic growth." 

India: Looks to enhance trade and defense manufacturing cooperation with UAE 
On 8 April, the visiting Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh discussed areas of collaboration on trade and defense manufacturing. It was marked by six outcomes as a means to enhance and advance the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It includes setting up of an Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in Dubai and the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, the commencement of the construction of Bharat Mart and the launch of the Bhrart Mart complex, provision of a grant of and for a UAE-India Friendship Hospital in Dubai, opening an India Office Chamber of Commerce, and development of ship repair clusters in Vadinar and Kochi.

India: Announces closure of transshipment routes for Bangladesh
On 8 March, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) of India announced the termination of transshipment facilities for Bangladeshi export cargo. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, “Logistical delays and higher costs were hindering our own exports and creating backlogs. The facility, therefore, has been withdrawn w.e.f. April 8, 2025.” However, this is not aimed to impact Bangladesh’s exports to Nepal or Bhutan transported via the Indian territory, it clarified. This move will assist in the rationalization of freight rates and reduction in transport costs for Indian exporters and simultaneously decongest airports. Consequently, around 18 per cent of Bangladeshi garment goods shipped through air cargo via Kolkata and Delhi airports will be impacted. This development comes days after Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Yunus declared Dhaka as the “only guardian of the ocean” for the “landlocked” region of Northeast India. He also urged China to extend its economy to the region, to manufacture, bring, and export goods to the rest of the world. 

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Algeria: Bans flights to/from Mali 
On 7 April, Algeria banned flights to and from Mali, citing "recurrent violations" of its airspace. A week before the ban, Algeria "shot down" a drone belonging to Mali, which it called an “armed surveillance drone.” The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) described Algeria’s action as an “irresponsible act.” The group stated that it considered the move as “an aggression against the entire confederation” and “contrary to historical relations and fraternal relations between the peoples of the AES confederation and the Algerian people.”

Gabon: General Nguema likely to assume the post of President
On 11 April, BBC reported on the possibility of General Oligui Nguema assuming the post of President after the April election. Well known for nationalising foreign-owned oil assets, he remains popular amongst those tired of dynastic succession. Nguema came to power through a coup in 2023. Out of the five West and Central African countries that have endured a coup since 2020, Gabon is the only one to maintain close relations with its former colonial power, France, and to return to civilian rule. Nguema is popular for diversifying political institutions by allowing opposition, boosting infrastructure, and paying pension arrears to workers.

Zimbabwe: Government announces compensation to white farmers over land seizure
On 11 April, Zimbabwe’s government announced USD three million to white farmers whose lands were seized during 2000-2001 under the 2020 compensation agreement between white farmers. While the seizure of the farmland was meant to undo colonial-era land grabs, it caused an economic decline and strained relations with the West. The first batch of payments covers 378 farms out of 740, representing one per cent of the total compensation approved. As per Minister of Finance Mthuli Ncube, the remaining will be paid through US-dollar-denominated Treasury bonds. He stated: "One of our commitments as we try to reform the Zimbabwean economy, to clear our arrears, is really to compensate the former farm owners who lost their farms during the land reform programme."

EUROPE THIS WEEK
Russia: Launches Soyuz MS-27 carrying US and Russian cosmonauts
On 08 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the ongoing US-Russia space relations amid war in Ukraine. Russian Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft that recently docked with the International Space Station (ISS), with two Russian cosmonauts, Sergey Ryzhikov and Alexey Zubritsky, along with NASA astronaut Jonny Kim. The crew will carry out 50 scientific experiments ahead of returning to Earth in 09 December. Despite geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US, space projects, especially those concerning the ISS, have continued to advance cooperation. The ISS, continuously developed since 2000, remains a symbol of international collaboration.

Europe: EPP adopts a new and tougher nine-point action plan against uncontrolled migration
On 07 April, the European People's Party (EPP) adopted a new, tougher stance on migration through a position paper titled: “Harnessing Migration: A Firm, Fair, and Future-Oriented Approach.” This includes measures such as migrant return hubs, a stronger role for Frontex, and stricter criteria for family reunifications. The plan aims to decrease irregular migration, counter migrant smuggling, and enhance border protection, with proposals like using EU funds for border infrastructure and expanding Frontex's capabilities with complex technologies. It also supports deploying Frontex agents in African countries to prevent migrants from leaving. The EPP advocates for stronger partnerships with third countries and reintroducing temporary internal border controls within the Schengen Area if necessary. Other divisive ideas include restrictive asylum rights when migrants are used as political tools, revising the Geneva Convention, and tightening family reunification needs. The EPP's position aligns with right-wing groups in the European Parliament and emphasizes the need for more proactive border defence.

France: Far-right leader Le Pen refuses to give up after being charged for embezzlement of public funds
On 06 April, France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen told her supporters that she would fight the political move made against her, which bars her from running for the upcoming presidential elections. Several protested in Paris, against her charges of embezzlement of public funds. She said: “I will not give up and was the victim of a witch-hunt, additionally it is we who are most ardent defenders of the rule of law.” The National Rally, right-wing party organised the event to respond to the verdict as it viewed it as politically motivated and not a judicial verdict. She further added: “This decision has trampled on everything I hold most dear, my people, county and honor.”

Spain: Thousands protest over housing crisis
On 05 April, thousands of Spaniards took over 40 cities across Spain protesting on housing crisis. Protesters believe that “Housing should be a right, not a commodity for speculation.” With people being evicted, displaced from their homes, or living in inhuman conditions, landlords and investment funds are making their profits. In Madrid, around 150,000 people, whereas in Barcelona around 100,000 showed up. The crowds accuse the government of converting housing into a business model. The protest focused on Spain’s housing crisis, demanding rent reduction, and the creation of social housing. The main cause among the working middle class is the sky-high rents, and the small minority of property owners suffocating the majority of the society. Adding to this foreign ownership and tourism have further increased the gravity of the issue. Tourism is huge in Barcelona, Madrid, Malaga, Mallorca, and Valencia and real estate firms cater to them. The government believes that it needs to build at least 600,000 apartments to handle the crisis, and in 2024 around 100,000 homes were completed and new projects are in progress. According to the Tenants Syndicate, Gonzalo Alvarez, the lack of housing is because of the homes being hijacked, like tourist flats or empty flats, belonging to the vulture funds and banks. Spain Central Bank reported that renters spend 40 per cent of their income on rent, and despite the rise in salaries by 20 per cent in the last decade, it has failed to keep pace with the doubling rents. To tackle the problem, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has imposed rent caps and is proposing bans on 100 per cent supertaxes on foreign property ownership.

About the Authors
Femy Francis is a Research Assistant at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Nuha Aamina and Fleur Elizabeth Philip are Research Assistants at NIAS. Nova Karun K is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. C Shraddha is a Research intern at NIAS.

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The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan