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CWA # 1690
The World This Week
The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
The World This Week #312 Vol 7, No 21, 25 May 2025

  GP Team
25 May 2025

Presidential elections in Romania: 
Pro-EU narrative to prevail
Abhiruchi Chowdhury

What happened?
On 18 May, pro-EU and liberal candidate, Nicusor Dan clinched victory in the final round of the Presidential elections, receiving 54 per cent of the total votes. George Simion finished second, receiving 46 per cent of the vote. The voting turnout for the final round remained at 65 per cent. EU President Ursula von der Leyen saw the results as positive and something which would help in moving “towards a strong Europe.”

On 22 May, the constitutional court of Romania upheld election results. George Simion had challenged the election results, alleging interference from France and Moldova; however, the court had dismissed his plea. On this Simion commented on his social media “the court has continued its coup d’etat.”

On the same day, at the “Black Sea and Balkan security Forum,” Dan pledged support to Ukraine against Russia. He said “aid to Ukraine will continue, of course, we all want to reach peace, or at least an armistice as quickly as possible.”

What is the background?
First, a brief note on recent elections and the powers of President. In the first round of Presidential elections, George Simion received 40.96 per cent of the votes. Dan had received just 21 per cent of the total votes in the first round. The latest elections took place as a result of constitutional court declaring the Presidential elections held in November 2024 as invalid.  There were reports suggesting that Russia had meddled in the elections through its “cyber activities.” In Romania, President is seen as an intermediary between the subsidiaries of power and society. The tenure of the President is for five years in total and cannot serve more than two terms.  It is mandated that the elected President maintains neutrality and maintain a firm control over the security policies of Romania. The President also has the power to veto against any decision taken by the government over security.

Second, a brief note on the Presidential candidates. Nicusor Dan had actively advocated against corruption in Romania for a substantial period of time. His election campaign focused on fighting against corruption, maintaining close ties with the EU and NATO countries, and continuing support to Ukraine. Geroge Simion is seen as leaning towards extreme right. He is the head of the nationalist alliance that advocates for re-establishing Romania’s former borders. He firmly stands against giving Ukraine any further military assistance and had maintained an anti-EU stance. Simion was extremely popular among Romanians who reside outside the country especially in Italy, Spain and Germany. Simion had garnered support from those Romanians who had earlier voted for Georgescu in the nullified elections.

Third, current political issues in Romania. Similar to the other countries in Europe, the Romanian society is divided in providing financial assistance to Ukraine. People are also divided on whether Romania should maintain close ties with Russia or continue to be pro-EU. The surge in food prices and inflation in the economy is another key issue that has been a concern for the Romanian voters. Romania is also engulfed with prevalent graft practices. The Romanian population has little faith over the public institutions and the people in politics.

What does it mean?
First, Romania would continue to back Ukraine against Russia. Also, an EU friendly President for Romania means that the country would try to further try to strengthen its ties with EU and NATO countries.

Second, the threat of an anti-EU and pro-Russia alliance within the European Union has subsided. Analysts had feared that Romania would join countries like Hungary and Slovakia which have pro-Russian and Eurosceptic leaders.

 

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
Aashish Ganeshan

What happened?
On 18 May 2025, Portugal voted in the snap general election for the 17th Legislature of Assembleia da República, (Parliament). The right-wing radical Chega party recorded a historic breakthrough, equaling the Socialist Party (PS)’s number of  58 parliament seats. The incumbent center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), to which the current  Prime Minister Luís Montenegro belongs, stood as the largest bloc with 89 seats but stayed short of an absolute majority  (116 seats). The election saw a fragmented parliament where no party or coalition had a clear majority. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro reaffirmed his resolve to establish a government without Chega on the grounds of fundamental ideological differences.

What is the background?
First, a brief note on the recent elections in 2022 and 2024. In the 2024 election, the AD party gained 80 seats just slightly over the PS, which gained 78 seats. Chega party was also strong with 50 seats. In 2022, the PS gained 120 seats, and AD and Chega had 80 and 12 seats respectively. The 2025 election was the third general election within three years, showing continued political instability due to underlying issues.

Second, the emergence of Chega party as a serious political force. Founded in 2019,  the party has quickly expanded from an outlier to the third-largest party. Under the leadership of André Ventura, the party took advantage of dissatisfaction with established parties, advocating for a platform based on nationalism, anti-immigration policy, and law-and-order initiatives. Chega's rise has broken the established two-party stranglehold of the PS and AD.

Third, major electoral issues. Portugal is experiencing a housing crisis with rising rents and a lack of affordable housing. The election was shaped by housing affordability concerns, pressures on the healthcare system, and political corruption. The healthcare system is strained with long waiting lists and a shortage of resources. Corruption scandals have damaged public confidence in traditional parties, driving support for anti-establishment movements such as Chega.

What does it mean?
First, the AD is likely to establish a minority government. With 89 seats, the AD falls short of the 116 seats required for a majority government. Prime Minister Montenegro has already excluded the possibility of a government of national unity with Chega due to ideological differences. This reduces coalition possibilities. It is anticipated that a weak minority government dependent on smaller party support or ad hoc arrangements may emerge.

Second, road map for PS and Chega. PS is likely to be confronted by internal issues after its election loss. Winning only 58 seats, the PS had one of its worst performances in decades. The party leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned, and the party is now in search of a new leader. On the other hand, Chega's emergence indicates that the landscape of Portuguese politics is changing. The party's power might influence legislative discussions, especially concerning immigration and national identity, even if the party is not in the ruling coalition.
Third, the outcome of the elections indicates wider European pattern - weakening of established party systems and the growth of populist sentiments.

Poland’s Presidential Elections:
No clear winners, yet
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed

What happened?
On 20th May, the National Electoral Commission of Poland announced the results for first-round of presidential elections, held on May 18. Rafał Trzaskowski, the incumbent Mayor of Warsaw from the centrist-Civic Coalition (KO) led with 31.36 per cent votes, while, the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki backed by the nationalist-Law and Justice party (PiS) followed closely with 29.54 per cent, followed by far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun gaining significant support, both receiving about 20 per cent of the total votes collectively. As no candidate could achieve 50 per cent, a second-round of elections would be held on 1 June.

What is the background?
First, the presidential electoral system in Poland. The citizens vote directly to choose their president for a five-year term. The President can serve maximum two terms. The presidency is key to powers such as legislative veto, overseeing military and judicial appointments making it important in Poland’s governance.

Second, a brief note on the contestants and their political agenda. Rafał Trzaskowski, a pro-European Civic Coalition (KO) candidate with background in EU politics and experience as Warsaw’s mayor, has advocated for liberal values such as LGBTQ+ rights, thus, drawing criticism from conservative regions. Karol Nawrocki, an independent backed by Justice and Law party (PiS) campaigns on nationalism, tax cuts, lower energy costs and resistance to the EU’s policies on climate and assertive stance on Ukraine.
 
Third, a brief note on recent presidential elections in Poland. The elections have been dominated by right-leaning nationalist-Law and Justice party (PiS) and pro-EU centrist-Civic Coalition (KO), winning thrice and once, respectively. In 2005, PiS’ Lech Kaczyński won, defeating current Prime Minister Donald Tusk with 54.05 per cent in second-round. In 2010, Bronisław Komorowski won from Civic Platform (PO) that is a member of current KO coalition, defeating PiS’ Jarosław Kaczyński with 53.01 per cent in second-round, embarking it as the last non-PiS party’s win in Poland’s presidential election. While, in 2015 and 2020, the outgoing President Andrzej Duda got elected, 51.05 and 51.03 per cent, respectively.

Fourth, the electoral issues in Poland.  Concerns related to independence of the judiciary, economic issues like inflation and energy costs and social divisions over issues of abortion, LGBTQ+ rights and freedom of media had dominated the electoral issues. With Poland sharing borders with Belarus and Ukraine, concerns related to national security and foreign policy were also seen as key electoral issues. While, centrist-KO promotes institutional reforms and closer ties with EU and NATO on various aspects; nationalist-PiS narratives emphasize defence autonomy and nation’s security.

What does it mean?
This election has crucial importance in deciding Poland’s future, with a clear difference between Trzaskowski’s pro-EU liberalism and Nawrocki’s nationalist-PiS-backed agenda. KO’s win could unlock withheld European Union (EU) Recovery Funds, bring judicial reforms and align Poland more closely along policies of the EU, such as on climate issues and Ukraine. It would be the first time since 2015 that both parliament and president aligned politically, enabling major reforms on liberal values. Narwocki’s win on the other hand would mean moretax cuts and energy reforms.

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
Aparna A Nair

What happened?
On 19 May, UK PM (Keir Starmer), European Council President (Antonio Costa) and European Commission President (Ursula von der Leyen) met in London for a summit. It was the first post-BREXIT summit to “reset” relations between the UK and the EU. President Costa commented “This summit marks a new chapter in the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.” While Ursula von der Leyen stated that,” At a time of global instability, and when our continent faces the greatest threat it has for generations, we in Europe stick together,” the UK opposition conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch called it a sellout.

The summit resulted in three documents- a joint statement, a security and defence partnership and a common understanding on a renewed agenda for European Union-United Kingdom cooperation. According to the security and defence partnership, the UK will have access to 150 billion euros of the European Defence Fund, and it may participate in EU civilian and military crisis missions and engage in joint procurement of defence. The common understanding of a renewed agenda for European Union-United Kingdom cooperation emphasised commitment to security, defence and development cooperation, people-centred policies, strengthening economies while protecting the planet and its resources and on internal security, judicial cooperation and irregular migration. Additionally, the new sanitary and phytosanitary deal was reached to prevent unnecessary border checks on agricultural produce under a food standard deal. The youth mobility scheme will allow under-30s to travel, work, and study across the UK and the EU for limited periods. Agreements have been reached to extend full reciprocal access to waters for fish until 30 June 2028.

What is the background?
First, the importance of the meeting, after post-Brexit tensions. The summit was the first between the UK and the EU post-BREXIT. It followed six months of structured negotiations after Kier Starmer took office in July 2024. After BREXIT, there were tensions between the two, including legal battles over issues like the Northern Ireland protocol, fishing rights, and regulatory divergence. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement signed in 2020 left many areas unresolved or inadequately governed. It includes cross-border trade, food safety standards and services.

Second, the change in UK leadership in 2024 and the new approach towards EU. Unlike previous conservative leaders, Stammer was not interested to relitigate Brexit and support rejoining the EU. His approach aimed to rebuild trust, reduce trade friction, and promote cooperation in specific sectors to address the economic challenges faced in the UK, such as lower trade and investment, food inflation, and the decline of public services.

Third, trade and economic concerns. According to the UK Office for National Statistics, total UK goods exports to the EU reduced by 12 per cent in 2023 compared to 2019. Small businesses faced challenges due to the increased red tape and trade barriers post-BREXIT. The young citizens were affected by the loss of Erasmus opportunities and job market access post-Brexit.

Fourth, the larger regional security environment amidst Trump’s skepticism towards the NATO.  The summit took place in two significant development having a long term implications for Europe. The conflict in Ukraine and uncertainties in the US commitment to NATO under the President Donald Trump administration calls for the need for a unified European response.

What does it mean?
The summit is a good start to reset the relationship between UK and EU. After years of friction, the UK and EU demonstrated a willingness to engage and resolve disputes. The agreements reached over defence and security, sanitary and phytosanitary deals and youth mobility indicate that both sides prioritize practical solutions over ideological disputes. This reset offers a foundation to stabilize the UK-EU relationship in a way that balances sovereignty and cooperation.

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Padmashree Anandhan, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, R Preetha, Brighty Ann Sarah, Ananya Dinesh, Gauri Gupta, Merin Treesa Alex, Lekshmi Muthu, Kejia Reddy, Santhiya. M, and Rizwana S Banu

CHINA THIS WEEK
China: Foreign Minister emphasizes cooperation under Belt and Road Initiative in China- Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral meeting
On 21 May, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted trilateral talks in Beijing for his counterparts from Pakistan and Afghanistan, Ishaq Dar and Amir Khan Muttaqi respectively. China pledged support for both countries in defending sovereignty, security, and national dignity. The three sides agreed “in principle” to exchange ambassadors soon. Wang Yi emphasized strengthening diplomatic ties and cooperation under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. The ministers also agreed to boost collaboration on law enforcement, counterterrorism, and safeguarding against foreign interference. These developments come as military tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, further aggravated by a recent school bus bombing in southwestern Pakistan. China, while not formally recognizing the Taliban, has supported the regime economically since 2021 despite not extending formal recognition. Wang Yi reaffirmed China’s “ironclad” support for Pakistan and vowed to deepen economic, security, and diplomatic ties with Afghanistan, promoting peace, stability, and mutual development across the region.

China: China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0 aims to modernize and deepen economic ties
On 21 May, China and the 10 ASEAN nations successfully concluded negotiations on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0. The announcement was made during a special virtual meeting of economic and trade ministers. Negotiations began in November 2022 and concluded in October 2024 after nine rounds of formal discussions. CAFTA 3.0 aims to modernize and deepen economic ties, introducing nine new chapters focused on the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. These updates reflect evolving global trends and aim to enhance industrial cooperation and supply chain integration between China and ASEAN, two of the world’s leading developing economic blocs. The Ministry described the upgraded pact as a model of openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation, reinforcing commitment to free trade and regional stability. CAFTA 3.0 is expected to boost certainty in global trade, while supporting the creation of a mega-market and a China-ASEAN community with a shared future. Both parties will now proceed with domestic ratification procedures, aiming to formally sign the upgraded protocol by the end of 2025.

China: Imposes 74.9 per cent import duties on Polyoxymethylene products from the US, Japan, and Taiwan
On 18 May, China imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of Polyoxymethylene copolymers from the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Taiwan. Polyoxymethylene is a high-performance engineering thermoplastic known for its strength, rigidity, and excellent dimensional stability. Following the anti-dumping probe, China retaliated after the US increased tariffs. The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China imposed steep anti-dumping duties on these countries for the next five years. According to the announcement, “the highest anti-dumping rates of 74.9 per cent were levied on imports from the United States, while European shipments will face 34.5 per cent duties.” Japanese imports incurred a 35.5 per cent duty, except the Asahi Kasei Corp, which received a company-specific rate of 24.5 per cent. Similarly, Taiwan incurred General duties of 32.6 per cent, except Formosa Plastics, which received a 4 per cent tariff, and Polyplastics Taiwan which incurred 3.8 per cent tariffs.

China: Accelerates Mohmand Dam construction in Pakistan
On 19 May, SCMP reported that China is accelerating the construction of the Mohmand Dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The Mohmand dam is designed to serve as a multi-purpose facility for power generation, flood control, irrigation, and water supply. This was in response to India's warning to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack. The construction of this dam started in 2019, designed to produce 800 MW of electricity and provide 300 million gallons of water to Peshawar. The infrastructure project also incorporates Diamer-Bhasha Dam, being built on the Indus River, which aims to boost Pakistan’s ability to store water. Despite tensions between India and Pakistan, China has urged Pakistan to “restrain” itself to maintain regional “peace and stability.”

China: To give an additional USD 500 million to the WHO
On 19 May, China announced that it will give an additional USD 500 million (SGD 648 million) to the World Health Organization at the World Health Assembly for over five years, amidst the UN agency seeking extra funding to counterbalance the expected loss of its top donor, the United States. China’s Vice-Premier of the State Council, Liu Guozhong, made the official announcement in a speech in Geneva. “The world is now facing the impacts of unilateralism and power politics, bringing major challenges to global health security. Multilateralism is a sure path to addressing difficulties,” Mr. Liu stated to the delegates.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Vietnam: French President Emmanuel Macron to embark on a visit to Vietnam to discuss energy, infrastructure, defence, satellites, and nuclear power
On 20 May, the Vietnamese government confirmed that France’s President Emmanuel Macron would embark on a visit to Vietnam. Macron's visit to Vietnam along with Indonesia, and Singapore will be his first visit to Southeast Asia. In Vietnam, Macron plans to discuss energy, infrastructure, defence, satellites, and nuclear power. The Elysee office has prepared a dozen factors that both parties could agree upon and sign. A French official said that around 30 pacts are under discussion ahead of the signing on 26 May. 

Singapore: PM Lawrence Wong initiates cabinet reshuffle
On 21 May, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong formulated a cabinet of four existing senior leaders and two new younger ministers. At a press conference at the National Press Center, he stated that he is assembling the strongest team for Singapore. The two new young MPs are David Neo for Minister for Culture, Community and Youth, and Senior Minister for Education, and Jeffrey Siow for Minister for Transport and Senior Minister of State for Finance. These changes are made to have diversity among younger and old officeholders. 

Pakistan: IMF pushes Pakistan to ensure the federal budget falls in line
On 19 May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan began discussions for the upcoming “federal budget” for the financial year 2025-2026. The talks between the IMF and Pakistan would go on until 23 May which would examine whether the budget put forward by the federal government would be able to meet the objectives set by the IMF. The final budget would be put forward by the federal government on 2 June. IMF has been continually stressing that the upcoming budget must fulfil the objectives of bringing back “macroeconomic stability,” increase foreign reserves and make “structural reforms” for a comprehensive economic growth.

Pakistan: Strengthens Russian and Central Asian connections at the Kazan forum
On 19 May, Dawn reported on Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Communications, Abdul Aleem Khan’s announcements on the Pakistan’s plan to “emerge as a key transit hub, bridging economies of South Asia and Central Asia,” through road networks connecting the cities of Karachi, Quetta and Gwadar with Central Asia and Europe. He highlighted the Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway (M-6) as a “focal project for good investment,” and also “revealed ongoing work on a pilot project for a railway line to Russia via Iran.” At the Kazan Forum organized by the Russian Federation in Tatarstan, Pakistan “welcomed cultural exchanges with Russia and Central Asian states,” reaffirming Pakistan's commitment to enhancing regional trade and economy. Mr Khan has also reportedly held a bilateral meeting and a joint session with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, expressing Pakistan’s “strong interest in developing a broad-based partnership with Russia.” 

Sindh announces collaboration with China on a mini truck plant in Karachi
On 19 May, The News International reported that the Sindh government will establish a mini truck assembly plant in Karachi in collaboration with Chinese investors. In the launch ceremony held in the Chinese city of Bozhou, Senior Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon highlighted the initiative as a major step in Pakistan-China industrial and technical cooperation. Further, the government plans to set up electric vehicle charging stations across the province.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
South Africa: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visits US  amid strains in bilateral ties
On 21 May, Ramaphosa met US President Trump and other delegates to reset the bilateral relationship between the two countries. This meeting took place against the backdrop of the passing of the land expropriation law, which is viewed unfavorably by the Afrikaners. During the meeting, Trump asked an assistant to “turn the lights down” and screened a lengthy video alleging white genocide in South Africa. The footage showcased the opposition leader chanting “shoot the boer”, an anti-apartheid song. Additionally, he displayed an aerial shot of thousands of white crosses by the side of the road. Trump claimed this to be the burial site of Afrikaners who had been murdered in recent years. However, these accusations were proven incorrect. Throughout the meeting, Ramaphosa maintained his composure. Ramaphosa remains optimistic and stated that “it was a great success.” However, Senator Jeanne Shaheen remarked that this meeting is not going to bring them closer but will take decades back.

Sudan: The US imposes sanctions on Sudan for violating the Chemical Weapons Convention.
On 23 May, the US announced that it would impose sanctions on Sudan after discovering that it used chemical weapons in the ongoing civil war last year against the Rapid Support Forces. A Sudanese government spokesperson stated that these are baseless claims without evidence. During this conflict, more than 150,00 have been killed, which began two years ago when Sudan’s army and the RSF fought a vicious power struggle. No details have been provided about which chemical weapons the US claims to have found, but in January, the New York Times reported that Sudan used chlorine gas on two occasions. No visual evidence has been shared so far. Sudan’s Cultural and Information Minister, Khalid Al-Ayesir, described the US’s actions as “Political Blackmail.” He added that the US previously made “False Claims " about the chemical weapons in Sudan, pointing to the 1998 Al-Shifa attack. 

South Sudan: Sudan's army plans to close oil export facilities vital for South Sudan
On 21 May, Al Jazeera reported that Sudan's army-backed government is preparing to close the facilities that South Sudan uses to export oil. This comes against the backdrop of the suicide drones launched by Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for six consecutive days at Port Sudan. These attacks have damaged the facilities, including fuel depots and electricity grids. While this sends shock waves to the city, Sudan's army is preparing to close it down. This decision could have serious repercussions on South Sudan's army as ninety per cent of the government revenue comes from oil exports, which are mainly exported from Sudan.
About the Authors
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed is enrolled at the Department of International Relations, Peace & Public Policy, St Joseph’s University, Bangalore. Aparna A Nair and Aashish Ganeshan are enrolled at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College. They are Research Interns at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). Abhiruchi Chowdhury is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS. Rohini Reenum is a Doctoral Student at NIAS. Femy Francis and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Fleur Elizabeth Philip is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Gauri Gupta, Ananya Dinesh, R Preetha, Brighty Ann Sarah, Merin Treesa Alex, Santhiya. M, Lekshmi Muthu, Rizwana S Banu, and Kejia Reddy are Research interns at NIAS. 

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