The World This Year

The World This Year
The US: The Year of Living Dangerously?

Amit Gupta
30 December 2023
Photo Source: New York Stock Exchange, Wall Street

2024 will be a critical year for the US foreign policy establishment as it has to withdraw from a potentially dangerous case of imperial overreach. 

The Biden Administration continues to push a lost cause in Ukraine, it has to deal with a potentially dangerous situation with China over Taiwan, and in the Middle East, it is facing flashpoints from the Red Sea to Iran to Gaza to the Israel-Lebanon border. Alongside these immediate problems, US policymakers remain wary of North Korean actions, particularly in the missile realm. Further, some hawkish Republican politicians would like to see the US military deployed in Mexico to take on that country’s drug lords. 

There is a danger as well as a significant policy problem that the US will face from global conflicts in 2023.  The danger is that one of these crises will escalate into a large-scale conflict that will pull Washington into a long war with no real political gain. The policy problem is, that the US will once again get diverted from its primary foreign and defence policy objective of containing China, which Washington now views as a long-term threat to its global interests.  

As Kishore Mahbubani has pointed out, the US has three major strategic challenges - the Middle East, Russia, and China—but it can only tackle one of these at any given time. Both Bush Jr and Obama wanted to focus on China but were repeatedly dragged back into the Middle East. Trump could focus on China because the Abraham Accords allowed the US to put the region on the back burner and the American president, despite considerable domestic pressure, refused to escalate tensions with Russia. He was, therefore, able to take a tougher stand against the Chinese by raising tariffs on their exports to the US.  

Biden, however, is in a difficult situation since he now faces crises in all three areas and has no imaginative ideas on how to reshape these relationships. 

Russia, by all accounts, is winning the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has suffered over 400,000 casualties, and the country’s pre-war population of 44 million has shrunk to 35 million—a figure it was supposed to reach in 2050 due to demographic decline. The West has already given USD 200 billion to Ukraine to fight this war. Despite the negative evidence, Biden and his European allies want to continue funding a lost cause.  

At the same time, however, the Russian economy is far from collapsing while Ukraine is in dire straits despite the USD 200 billion infusion of weapons and cash by the Western alliance. A smart move on Washington’s part would be to push Kyiv towards peace talks with Moscow but, in an American election year, that would be seen as capitulation with potentially disastrous electoral consequences. Thus, the Biden Administration is doubling down on its support for Ukraine. What may work in the administration’s favour, however, is that the US Congress has no appetite left to fund Ukraine, especially since there is a pressing need to assist Israel.  

The Middle East is more problematic because Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have opened up multiple fronts. The Biden administration is having a difficult time dealing with these perceived threats. It is not finding enough partners to be in a coalition against the Houthis with the Arab states, except Bahrain, showing little or no interest. The US and its Western allies, moreover, cannot afford a land war against the Houthis because this would be a lengthy and costly engagement and ultimately futile.  

In the case of Hamas and Israel, the Biden Administration has lost international credibility, as seen by the UN resolution that called for a ceasefire despite American and Israeli opposition to it. Further, while the administration is parroting the idea of a two-state solution, it has no concrete ideas on how to implement it or, more importantly, how to get Israel to come to the negotiating table. At the same time, in the US, there is considerable opposition to the pro-Israel policy of the administration, especially among millennials and Generation Z, who do not get their news and information from America’s mainstream media because they see these as puppets of the government in Washington.  

So, what is the likely outcome of these three crises for the Biden team? On Russia, the administration will have to explain Ukraine’s loss in the war, which will be difficult to do since the Western media essentially painted the picture of a victorious Ukraine and an incompetent Russia. This will portray the Biden administration as weak on foreign policy issues.

The Middle East is more damaging. Unless the Biden team can convince Israel to agree to a ceasefire, they will see a further diminishing of the US’s international stature and soft power.  

On China, the Biden-Xi meeting helped lower tensions between the two countries, but the Chinese did not get the assurance they wanted about the US supporting reunification. Observers, therefore, fear a naval conflagration between the US and Chinese navies in the East of South China Seas—something no one in South East or East Asia wants.  

Lastly, all this is going to be very expensive. The US defence budget is already at approximately USD 860 billion, while the Veterans Administration budget—pensions and medical care for veterans—has reached USD 325 billion, totalling over USD 1.1 trillion. Add to this the supplemental increases in the budget due to possible assistance to Ukraine and Israel and the costs of military actions in the Middle East, and the budget may increase by another USD150 billion. Where will this money come from?

A smart policy move would be to reduce tariffs on China and explicitly state that the US still recognizes the One-China policy and peaceful reunification. Further, Biden should push back on those wanting to expand the conflict in the Middle East by waging a war with Iran. 

It should also use its good offices to broker talks between Palestine and Israel. As for Russia, removing Zelensky would open the door for constructive talks between Kyiv and Moscow. If at least some of this does not happen, 2024 will go down in the history books as the year of living dangerously. 

About the author
Dr Amit Gupta is an international security and economics analyst based in the USA.

About the author

Dr Amit Gupta is an international security and economics analyst based in the USA


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China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta