Photo : Kremlin.ru
20 May 2024, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #838
By Padmashree Anandhan and Neha Tresa George
What happened?
On 16 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for the second time in the last 12 months. President Xi said, "China and Russia have shown others an example of building a new type of interstate relations and relations between major neighbours. All this was made possible because both parties were committed to the following five principles."
On 16 May, in his address, Putin said: "The negotiations just held showed the great importance that both Moscow and Beijing attach to the development and strengthening of the Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction."
On 17 May, in a press briefing, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby commented on Putin's visit to China. He said: "Leaders of two countries that - that clearly are acting in various ways around the world inimical to our national security interests, to the interests of many of our allies and partners... they're also two leaders that don't have a long history of working together, and officials in both governments that - that aren't necessarily all that trustful of the other." On the US perception of Russia-China relations and engagement in war in Ukraine, Kirby added: "...the challenges that both countries that represent, and we take seriously this burgeoning relationship between the two of them...President Xi rush to the effort to assist the Russian Armed Forces and provide lethal capabilities...some of these Chinese companies that are providing microelectronics and components for Russia's defensive weapons systems. That's a problem, and we've raised that with the Chinese as well."
What is the background?
First, the strategic transformation in the Russia-China relationship. Following the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the former Soviet Union established the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance, and Mutual Assistance. Mao Zedong and Joseph Stalin aimed to strengthen their friendship while promoting the socialist cause. Relations soured in the mid-50s and escalated in the 1960s to a war. During the 1980s, tensions remained high over the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, the Soviet support to Vietnam, and its deployment of troops along the Sino-Soviet border and Sino-Mongolian border. Under Deng Xiaoping, pragmatism led to a relaxation of the tensions. By the late 1980s, Russia and China agreed to step up their relations. During 1989 and 1991, the first high-level meetings between Mikhail Gorbachev and Jiang Zemin led to a Partnership of Strategic Cooperation in 1996. By the 2000s, the relationship witnessed steady improvement, leading to the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), settling border disputes and a significant boost of economic and military cooperation. The bilateral trade increased six times from USD eight billion to USD 55.5 billion. Russia-China relations furthered into a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2010. The War in Ukraine and the US-China tensions during the 2010s have further strengthened the above.
Second, increasing Russia-China collaboration since the Ukraine War. The joint statement by Russia and China ahead of the war on 04 February 2022 marked the recovery of the relations post-pandemic and as a precursor to the war. Since August 2021, both have engaged in joint military exercises and naval patrol through the South African Navy. On the Ukraine war, China has assured its commitment to sovereignty, called for an immediate ceasefire, and abstained in UNSC resolutions but had not provided full weapon support in the initial stages of the war. In February 2023, Beijing also released a 12-point statement proposing a "political settlement to the Ukraine crisis," The "Comprehensive Partnership and Strategic Cooperation for a New Era" promotes Russian-Chinese Economic Cooperation until 2030, especially in energy cooperation such as building the new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline across Mongolia, the opening Asia-Pacific strategy against the Indo-Pacific strategy, and increasing its total trade to USD 250 billion by 2024. The collaborations have deepened in energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, electronics, and machinery, and the use of national currency in trade, finance, and technology.
Third, apprehensions in bilateral relations. Central Asia, Russia's Far East, and, recently, the Arctic remain the points of bilateral contention between China and Russia. Moscow has cautiously approached China in joining BRI by keeping its objectives and interests forward. Despite the scope of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and BRI integration, the strategic ties between both have been limited outside BRI. To rebalance, Russia emphasizes multilateral institutions, such as BRICS, SCO, and the Russia-India-China trilateral initiative, to outgrow China's influence. Moscow is also concerned over China's presence and investments in Russia's Far East and Siberia, which was declared "a national priority for the 21st century" by Russia. Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic also reflects competition since China began to showcase itself as a "Near-Arctic State."
What does this mean?
First, advantage China. Closer ties after the war in Ukraine have lifted the mutual understanding principle. This means China's support to Russia in the war and Russian acceptance of China's sovereignty and territorial claims. Over the 75 years, Russia's ending of the border dispute emerged in the 1990s, helping China to focus on its periphery. Apart from this, China's integration into Central Asia and regional forums through Russia has helped expand its BRI initiative. Although these factors contribute to different facets to improve their equation, the high-level political support remains the binding factor.
Second, managing strategic balance and tactical tensions. The trend of the Russia-China relationship is similar to that of an N-shaped Kuznets curve. The relations witnessed a spark of friendship till the 1960's and dipped down till the 1980's. Still, it is a clear departure from the Cold War mentality heading into a strategic improvement with geopolitical complexities. China, at present, holds a strategic position with a growing military strength and global economic influence. Meanwhile, for Russia, the strategy remains a tactical play-out situation at the inter-economic and sub-regional level so as not to let the rope loose. At the same time, it swerves in the fallouts of the war in Ukraine.
FRANCE
Launches new operation in New Caledonia as riots continue
On 19 May, the security forces in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia commenced a new operation to take back control of the 60-kilometers highway that links the capital of Noumea to the nearby airport so that supplies could be flown in. The police had cleared up around 60 barricades set up along the road to the airport. On 18 May, the French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin confirmed that 600 gendarmes, including a hundred officers from Paris’ elite counterterrorism special forces had arrived in the state to “restore the order of the Republic.” Burnt wreckage was used to block the road by the protestors and the halting of flights had led to 3,200 people being stranded according to the reports of the authority. According to the AFP reports, 230 people had been detained with the rioters still blockading the roads. (Gabriel Gavin, “France launches crackdown in New Caledonia as deadly riots rage,” Politico, 19 May 2024)
IRELAND
Faces refugee crisis in the city of Dublin
On 19 May, Deutsche Welle reported that the country of Ireland was facing a refugee crisis which was aggravated by the housing crisis due to the repeated setting up and clearing of tents in Dublin. The tents might be set up by people excluded from a housing community or migrants which is another heated topic in Ireland. Since immigrants enter Ireland triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the government has admitted its inability to provide accommodation for all the asylum seekers. Since the beginning of the war, 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have registered. According to the government report 1,780 male applicants were yet to be housed as of 14 May. Tent encampments were repeatedly appearing in front of the International Protection Office in Dublin, responsible for processing asylum applications and they had been repeatedly cleared. (David Ehl, Ireland, “Tensions over refugee crisis and Dublin tent cities,” Deutsche Welle, 19 May 2024)
SPAIN
Vox organises campaign ahead of the European elections
On 19 May 2024, the Spanish far-right party Vox held a massive rally in Madrid garnering the support of international allies including Argentinian President Javier Milei, France’s presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, the Prime Ministers of Italy, Hungary, and right-wing leaders from France and Portugal. According to Vox, there were nearly 11,000 supporters cheering speakers from the right-wing parties while jeering at every mention of Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez. French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said that she had come to Spain to back Vox in its European elections. Milei, the Argentinian President got a standing ovation when he severely criticised the lefties and defended free market capitalism. The conference was guarded by heavy security due to the presence of foreign dignitaries. Milei’s comments about Sanchez’s wife had prompted Spain to recall its ambassador to Argentina. But enthusiasm was high for former US President Donald Trump, represented in Madrid by the vice president of the conservative Heritage Foundation and former White House staffers Matt and Mercedes Schlapp. The event ended with Spain’s national anthem. (“Spain’s far-right Vox holds mass rally with Argentina’s Milei, France’s Le Pen,” France24, 19 May 2024)
REGIONAL
Heavy rainfall causes severe flooding in Northern Europe
On 19 May 2024, Euronews reported that the municipality of Voeren in Limburg had been severely impacted by the heavy rain causing severe flooding in the area. According to Mayor Joris Gaens, the floods were worse than in 2021. The local disaster plan had been managing the emergency as the streets were submerged, houses were inundated and emergency shelters had been set up at the cultural center in the neighboring Dutch municipality of Eijsden. The flooding commenced on Friday and the local fire brigade received several reports of flooded basements and streets. Although the rain had reduced, water continued to flow into Voeren from higher areas in Liège triggering the situation. In Liège, the provincial disaster plan had been activated and the Verviers fire brigade had been overburdened with calls from the Herve plateau. Although the heaviest rainfall had reduced, the Royal Meteorological Institute cautioned about thunderstorms and heavy showers. It had also affected France and Germany; the A4 motorway from Strasbourg to Paris was partially closed, and Germany’s Saarland region had been experiencing flooding and landslides. There had been transport disruption in Belgium and the Netherlands too. (Daniel Harper, “Severe flooding wreaks havoc across northern Europe,” Euronews, 19 May 2024)
Europe’s Green Deal generating heated debates across the EU
On 19 May, Euronews reported on the much-debated Green Deal policy across Europe that aims to make the Union carbon-neutral and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The implementation appears to be challenging due to its possible implications on the economic sectors. In the Czech Republic, the main concerns came from the industry as some factories were struggling with the government’s plan to reduce emissions by 30 per cent by 2030. The deal seemed to affect the country due to its decline in the industrial base recently and the workers were afraid as they were unprepared for this. The debate in Ireland was focused on farming as the plan to reduce the emissions by 25 per cent by 2030 would only be possible by culling the herds. The practice of turf cutting which is a traditional activity in Ireland to cut turf on the properties for domestic use could also end. With these policies, Europe is striving to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, but it has a long way ahead. (Julian Gomez, “Is Europe's Green Deal entering a grey zone?,” Euronews, 19 May 2024)
INTERNATIONAL
Americans and British killed in a coup attempt in Congo
On 19 May, there was an apparent coup attempt in the Democratic Republic of Congo with several Americans and British involved according to the army. The Congolese army had prevented the coup and according to the army spokesman, Brigade General Sylvain Ekenge, several attackers had been arrested and killed. The group was led by Christian Malanga who was a Congolese and a naturalized American who got killed according to the security forces. The group made up of numerous nationalities according to Ekenge were about 44 in number out of which 40 got arrested and the remaining four got killed. He also said that the group attempted to attack the institutions since they failed to locate the residences of Prime Minister Judith Suminwa and Defense Minister Jean-Pierre Bemba. The group first attacked the residence of Economy Minister Kamerhe but fortunately, he and his family were not injured even though two police officers were killed protecting them. Lucy Tamlyn, US ambassador had expressed great concerns to Congo on the alleged involvement of Americans in the coup attempt. (“Americans and British are involved in coup attempts by the army,” Frankfurter Allgemeine, 19 May 2024)