Photo : Sky news
04 June 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #851
By Shilpa Joseph
GERMANY
Floods affecting several districts in central and southern
On 02 June, German weather forecasts predicted strong thunderstorms in central and southern Germany. The district of Augsburg to the west of Munich was severely affected. The disaster caused the death of a firefighter on duty in Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm, a town in Bavaria where the rubber boat he was using capsized. Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor paid respects to the firefighter. Another firefighter in the Bavarian town of Offingen, also went missing and was being searched by the rescue team. Due to landslides in the southern state of Baden-Württemberg, two railcars of an intercity express train derailed, following which several trains were cancelled by Germany's railway operator Deutsche Bahn (DB). The DB sent announcements that train services in southern Germany would remain limited and also warned travellers to avoid traveling in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg until the situation improved. With rising levels of the Danube River, the city of Günzburg was heavily flooded and active evacuation efforts were taking place. Two dams on the river Paar, a tributary of the Danube also broke, leading to the closure of a 50-kilometre (31-mile) stretch of the A9 Autobahn (Highway). Regional authorities ordered the immediate evacuation of several villages in Bavaria's Donau-Ries District along the Danube and Schmutter rivers due to massive weakening of the dams. Bavaria, a southern state was one of the worst affected. More than 40,000 have been deployed since flooding began, including over 20,000 emergency services workers and according to the Defence Ministry, around 800 soldiers had also been deployed. Bavaria's Interior Ministry claimed that 3,000 residents had been evacuated. The State’s Education Ministry also announced the cancellation of in-person classes at over 40 schools in eight districts across Bavaria. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), heavy rain was expected in the Stuttgart region and areas from the Alps to Saxony. They also reported that several municipalities in the region received more rainfall in 24 hours than they normally do in one month. As floodwaters continued to rise throughout the region, a senior citizen and nursing home located on the banks of the Danube in Bavaria were evacuated. (“Germany floods: Firefighter dies during rescue in Bavaria,” Deutsche Welle, 03 June 2024)
GEORGIA
Parliament gives final signal for the foreign agents bill
On 03 June, Shalva Papuashvili, the speaker of Georgia's Parliament gave the final endorsement for the foreign agents bill. He signed the bill into law after the legislature dismissed the veto of Salome Zourabichvili, the Georgian President. Despite weeks of protests, the bill was approved by Parliament, which is controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The law requires nonprofit organizations, the media, and other organizations to register as "pursuing the interests of a foreign power" if they receive more than 20 per cent of their funding from overseas. Zourabichvili, who vetoed the bill, vocally opposed saying: "the bill was hindering the path toward becoming a full member of the free and democratic world." (“Georgian parliament speaker signs 'foreign influence' bill into law,” Le Monde, 03 June 2024)
ICELAND
Elects a businesswoman as its new President
On 02 June, Iceland’s presidential election results declared that Halla Tomasdottir, a businesswoman, won to become the second woman president of the country. She was CEO of the B Team, a global non-profit organisation that the UK businessman Richard Branson started, to advance human-centred and climate-conscious business practices. Tomasdottir won 34.3 per cent of votes, ahead of Katrin Jakobsdottir, the former Prime Minister who secured 25.5 per cent votes. Jakobsdottir, who stepped down from her post in April to contest in the presidential elections, had gained recognition for managing the resurgence of volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula since December. Tomasdottir is set to become the second woman to serve as president, following Vigdis Finnbogadottir who was democratically elected in 1980. She will succeed Gudni Johannesson, who had earlier announced his decision not to seek re-election. (“Businesswoman Tomasdottir elected Iceland's next president,” Le Monde, 02 June 2024)
PORTUGAL
Government under Montenegro restricts the immigration policy
On 03 June, a key migration policy in Portugal was repealed by Luis Montenegro, the newly-elected Prime Minister which allowed non-EU migrants to enter Portugal without a job contract. It allowed them to apply for residency after a year of social security payments. On withdrawal of the policy immigrants must obtain an employment contract before entering the nation. Portugal, which was one of the most liberal EU countries that followed the wide-open doors policy, witnessed a shift toward the right-wing, especially on immigration policies. Portugal's foreign population doubled in five years, with 180,000 regularized migrants in 2015, while Montenegro reported 400,000 pending applications. With an aim to limit new arrivals, the Prime Minister said: "We need people in Portugal willing to help us build a fairer and more prosperous society, But we cannot go to the other extreme and have wide-open doors." (“Portugal's new government tightens immigration rules,” Deutsche Welle, 03 June 2024)
RUSSIA
Foreign minister in Guinea to gather support from West Africa
On 03 June, Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister arrived in Guinea as a part of his visits in West Africa. Guinea’s military junta that took power in 2021, has severed long-standing military ties with Western powers in favour of security support from Russia. Previously, Lavrov made various trips to Africa such as South Africa, Kenya and countries in North Africa since the Ukraine war, and Russia is looking for support from many of its 54 allies. In 2023, the military junta in Burkina Faso overthrew French forces and turned to Russia for security support. Similarly, in Niger, Russian military trainers arrived weeks after the junta that took power last year ordered US troops to withdraw from the country. (“Russia's foreign minister visits Africa, again,” Le Monde, 04 June 2024)
SERBIA
Elections results favour the ruling party accused of vote irregularities
On 02 June, at the municipal elections in Serbia, the ruling populists gained majority although the results are yet to be confirmed by the Election Commission. Opposition groups in Belgrade and Novi Sad claim that the party had set up illegal call centres run by its activists. Whereas the non-governmental Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability reported crimes related to alleged organised voting, vote-buying, breach of vote secrecy, and un - authorized people at polling places. However, the ruling party denied the opposition's claims over significant irregularities in the vote. In Belgrade, a re-run vote was held following allegations that Aleksandar Vucic, Serbian President governing party rigged the vote. Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party has been in power for more than a decade and was accused of violating free and fair elections. The opposition groups could not demand more since it would weaken their place in the elections. Although Vucic has been leading Serbia into EU accession, its continued association with Russia and China have drifted the country away from pro-EU democratic influence. (“Ruling populists declare victory in Serbia local vote despite opposition claims of irregularities,” Le Monde, 02 June 2024)
UK Elections:
Polls predict an overwhelming victory for the Labour party
On 03 June, Le Monde reported on recent YouGovpoll which estimated votes across all UK constituencies. According to the report, the labour party is predicted to win 422 out of 650 seats in the UK election. It is considered a major win with highest number of seats since Stanley Baldwin who won 208 seats in 1924. According to the report in Sky news, Tories are expected to be completely lose in large districts from 232 to 140 seats while Lib Dem surge could gain 48 seats and the Scottish National Party predicted to get only 17 out of 57 seats lower than 2019 results. After undergoing a heavy loss in the 2019 election, Labour is expected to win a majority greater than that of its former leader, Tony Blair, in 1997. Under Keir Starmer, the party may win 222 seats. (“UK general election: Yougov poll predicts biggest ever Labour win,” Le Monde, 03 June 2024)
Anti-Immigration Reform party leader to stand in the UK elections
On 03 June, in a news conference, the Anti-Immigration Reform UK party’s founder and leader, Nigel Farage announced his candidature for the UK general election on 04 July 2024. Farage was a member of the European Parliament in Brussels for UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Brexit Party, despite having failed in his seven earlier attempts to be elected as an MP in the UK parliament. After initially denying, he later stated that: "I have changed my mind... I am going to stand". He would be competing for the fiercely pro-Brexit seat of Clacton, southeast England. He claimed that polls showed that his party would have a 11 per cent vote share, which would definitely deprive the conservatives of a majority. While acknowledging the Labour Party’s expected victory in the elections, he nevertheless called for a step to a political revolt for changing the status quo. (“Nigel Farage to stand in UK election”, Le Monde, 03 June 2024)