Photo : Ken Cedeno—Reuters
05 June 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #852
By Shilpa Joseph and Ken B Varghese
GERMANY
Flooding persists although rains are expected to stop
On 04 June, the official Bavarian flood information service announced that the high-water levels will persist for some more days, but no more heavy rainfall is forecast. Schools are to remain shut and some local and long-distance routes were closed according to the train operator, Deutsche Bahn (DB). Heavy rainfall had also affected the Rhine River. Markus Söder, the State Premier of Bavaria, declared that the state government will provide at least EUR 100 million as a financial assistance for private households, commercial enterprises, self-employed people and farmers to benefit. Germany's situation eased, while Poland reported floods due to heavy rainfall, with Bielsko-Biala in Silesia flooded and a warning issued by the mayor. (“Germany floods: Rain eases as fifth death confirmed,” Deutsche Welle, 04 June 2024)
Germany reconsiders repatriation of Afghan migrants
On 04 June, Nancy Faeser, the German Interior Minister began reconsidering the repatriation of migrants to Afghanistan after an Afghan asylum seeker fatally stabbed a police officer in an anti-Islam rally in Mannheim on 31 May. She said: "It is clear to me that people who pose a potential threat to Germany's security must be deported quickly… That is why we are doing everything possible to find ways to deport criminals and dangerous people to both Syria and Afghanistan." After the Taliban came to power in 2021, Germany stopped sending migrants back to Afghanistan because the country does not send people back to nations where they face death threats. The suspect was identified as a 25-year-old man, who arrived in March 2013 and was initially refused asylum in Germany. However, since he was only 14 at the time, he was not deported, according to German tabloid Bild. This decision came at the time of the elections where the far-right parties are expected to perform better. (“Germany considers Afghan deportations after police stabbing,” Deutsche Welle, 04 June 2024)
THE UK
Sunak and Starmer in a faceoff before the general election
On 04 June, Rishi Sunak, the UK’s Prime Minister, and Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party held a TV debate on taxes, the National Health Service and immigration. Sunak said that the Labour Party wanted to increase taxes by GBP 2000 this claim was dismissed by Starmer saying this was “absolute garbage.” Both leaders have used this platform to tell their personal stories and childhood and how it has shaped their political views to the voters. This debate caused the audience to question them. The Conservative Party has come up with the number based on how much they claim Labour spending commitments would cost, dividing this by the number of UK households with at least one working member. Sunak has suggested that if the Rwanda policy did not work, he would be willing to pull the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights. On the question raising of the income tax or national insurance, both leaders denied responding prompting questions on how their policies would be post-election. Immigration was also one of the focused areas of the debate. (Jennifer Mckiernan, Michael Sheils McNamee (Sunak and Starmer clash over tax in the first debate," BBC, 04 June 2024)
POLAND
Donald Tusk warns people to vote in the elections
On 04 June, Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister showed ahead of the European Election that his team is increasing security in response to the threat of Russia. The Tusk Civic Coalition has stressed on how the EU should be strong and united against the threat from Russia. He called for people to vote and this comes as concern emerge over Poles being cautious about Russia due to its history and geographical aspects. Northern Poland shares more than 230 kilometres of border with Kaliningrad, a highly militarised Russian enclave, which is protected by thick barbed wire fencing, monitored by vehicles fitted with thermal imaging cameras. Security in Poland had increased since the launch of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But during the election campaign, Tusk promised to continue. He announced “Shield East” a border protection programme that would cost GBP 1.992 billion to reinforce the border, with high-tech surveillance of the trenches. Other EU countries have been talking about migration and Green deals, while Poland has focusing only on security by investing more in defence under the PiS government. (Sarah Rainsford, “Vote or face war': Poland PM's stark warning ahead of EU election,” BBC, 04 June 2024
REGIONAL
Charles Michel’s plan to secure the title of the next Commission Chief
On 04 June, Politico wrote reported on the EU diplomats fear over Charles Michel, European Council President vying to take down the incumbent European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen who is preparing for a second term. A certain group of Officials observed a power war between the two leaders on many occasions. While some others believe that he was eyeing for the EU foreign policy chief role, there is a common notion that Michel would pursue a personal revenge agenda as he would preside over the dividing up of the top jobs after the elections. A group of EU diplomats predict that Michel cannot stand a chance against von der Leyen, because her reputation as crisis-manager-in-chief has risen during the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, her party, the European People’s Party (EPP) gained popularity in the polling ahead of the elections. However, they agree that the Commission Chief has also garnered criticisms and pushbacks against her centralised leadership style and her potential cooperation with the right-wing parties. (Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi, “Charles Michel plots revenge against Ursula von der Leyen,” Politico, 04 June 2024)
S&P poor crediting disturbs France sovereign credibility
On 01 June, after many warnings, France's sovereign credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) FROM AA TO AA-. This was due to the logical consequence of budgetary issues. The government’s misjudgement of the slow growth economy led to an overestimated 2023 Tax revenue by EUR 21 billion and this has caused France with a much larger deficit than expected. Though the government has announced EUR 20 billion in savings that has yet to be detailed. This could be a threat of a motion of no confidence looming, the budget bill for 2025 promises to be particularly difficult to put together, not to mention the efforts that are to be made between now and the end of President Emmanuel Macron's five-year term. While most European countries aim to reduce their debt, France seems to be going in the other direction. Even though doubts have been growing about the government's ability to reduce the deficit, Bruno Le Maria, Finance Minister still believes in the idea that France would be able to bring the public deficit below three per cent of GDP by 2027. These issues would be used in the political arena more than the financial market. This downgrading may be used by the government to justify future tightening of budgetary screws. This would weaken the government's credibility. Ahead of the European Election this gives a bad impression undermining Macron’s claim to leadership in the EU. This would give great opportunities for the opposition parties to talk about the current government's carelessness in Budgetary matters. (“France's bad grade from Standard & Poor's shakes its economic credibility,” Le Monde, 01 June 2024)
INTERNATIONAL
Biden expresses support to restore peace in Ukraine
On 04 June, in an interview with TIME Magazine, Joe Biden spoke about his efforts to restore peace in Ukraine since its invasion from Russia in 2022. Biden had held meetings with the leaders of the EU and NATO, discussing post-invasion support for Ukraine, including military assistance, sanctions, diplomacy, and economic support from October 2021. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO was part of broader measures to respond to Russia’s invasion. According to the statement of Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor of the US: “He has connected Europe and Asia in a way no previous President has.” This was in the context of how Biden had brought Asian allies like South Korea and Japan onto the front to impose sanctions on Russia and its arms suppliers. Biden expressed his commitment to Ukrainian victory and that the war’s endgame would not result in favour of Russia. Biden’s allies in Kyiv criticised him for being cautious, giving Ukraine enough weapons to survive and not win the war. According to a senior official in Zelenskyy’s government: “It was not a decisive stance.” Biden had explained his strategy to be part of a broader defence plan as he believed that if Russia occupied Ukraine, then it would try to gain all the countries which have borders with it. (Massimo Calabresi, “We Are the World Power.’ How Joe Biden Leads,” TIME, 04 June 2024)