Photo : LEMOUTON STEPHANE/POOL/ABACA
11 June 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #857
By Neha Tresa George and Govind Anoop
FRANCE
President calls for a snap election after the EU Parliament poll defeat
On 09 June, Macron in an online meeting announced that he would dissolve the national assembly since the Far-Right party National Rally had defeated his Renew Party in the EU elections. In the five-minute video address he says, “After having carried out the consultations provided for in Article 12 of our Constitution, I have decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future by voting." The NR party had secured 31.37 per cent votes while Macron’s centrist party could only score 14.6 per cent. Jordan Bardella asked Macron to take note of the new political situation and the opinions of French people in his victory speech, shortly after the provisional results were declared. He added: "This unprecedented defeat for the current government marks the end of a cycle and day one of the post-Macron era, which it is up to us to build.” In Macron’s address, he stated that the rise of Far-Rights in the country was a threat and that the national ballot to be held on 30 June and 07 July is a "serious and weighty decision" and an "act of trust." By calling for snap elections, Macron was not giving enough time for the opposition parties to prepare. According to some political experts, Macron wanted the Far-Right to gain more power and become unpopular before the 2027 presidential election and thus ensure his party’s survival.
Since Macron lost his absolute majority in the Presidential elections in 2022 before getting re-elected, this snap election is a massive gamble for him. If the opposition party wins the election, he will be forced to name someone from their ranks as Prime Minister. This newly selected PM will then choose his cabinet ministers, resulting in what the French call a “cohabitation”. If the 28-year-old Jordan Bella were to become the Prime Minister, the sharp divisions could affect the national policies since their agendas and ideologies are different. Nonetheless, the EU elections never had an impact on French national politics. Marine Le Pen, the President of the National Rally Party welcomed the snap election decision by saying that “we are ready.” She expressed her confidence in the people of France in the upcoming election also.
(Alice Tidey, “Why has French President Emmanuel Macron announced snap elections after EU Parliament poll defeat?” Euronews, 10 June 2024; Sophia Khatsenkova, “France snap elections: Why Macron is gambling with France and Europe?” Euronews, 10 June 2024)
HUNGARY
Hungarian Prime Minister faces poor result in two decades
On 10 June, Euronews reported that Victor Orban’s right-wing Fidesz party would send 13 MEPs to the parliament after scoring 44 per cent of the votes in the EU elections. Compared to the result of 51.48 per cent in 2019, he has displayed the worst result in almost two decades. The result indicated a shift in Hungarian politics since the party Tisza secured 31 per cent of the vote. The newcomer party led by Peter Magyar, a former ally of Orban has promised to challenge Orban’s ten-year control of the territory. Magyar is a former member of Fidesz’s party who formed his party in earlier February. He also campaigned on the corrupt policies of Orban that had aggravated Hungary’s social divisions. The current government has faced several scandals including a sex abuse scandal leading to the resignation of several key members of the party. Tisza is expected to send around seven MEPs to the European Parliament. The rest of the vote was predicted to be shared between Hungarian Socialist Party with 8 per cent of the vote and the Far-Right Our Homeland Movement with 6.76 per cent. (Tamsin Paternoster, “Hungary: Newcomer Peter Magyar shakes Orban's hold on power, early results say,” Euronews, 10 June 2024)
THE UK
Labour Party of Britain bets on new childcare places and nurseries
On 10 June, the Labour Party vowed to create 100,000 additional childcare places and more than 3,000 new nurseries as part of its childcare plan. It has said that it would transform the classrooms in the existing primary schools at an estimated cost of around GBP 40,000 per classroom if the party gets elected. Since the number of state and primary schools is expected to fall by 8.8 per cent over the next five years, the Party is planning to use the space freed up in primary school buildings for the 3,334 new "high quality" nurseries, with could be run by the primary school themselves or by the local private and voluntary sector nursery providers. The money could be obtained from the VAT levied on private schools which the Party has called “unfair tax breaks” from private schools. Meanwhile, during the faceoff between the leaders, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak disagreed with this plan and said that it was part of a "class war" to "punish" aspirational parents. The Labour Party had also revealed its long-term plan to deliver a modern childcare system that better supports parents from the end of parental leave to the end of primary school. It had also committed to the government plans of “expansion of funded childcare” from which working parents received additional free childcare hours earlier this year. (Sofia Ferreira Santos, Alice Evans, “Labour pledges 100,000 new childcare places,” BBC, 10 June 2024)
BBC lists the voting norms for Channel Islanders
On 09 June, the BBC reported on the UK elections which is scheduled for 04 July. According to the report, the residents of the Channel Islands cannot vote, while residents who have previously lived in the UK, which is a third of its population, have the Right to choose their representative. The general elections will witness the public vote for their respective Members of Parliament (MPs) in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to represent them in Westminister. To vote, one must be over the age of 18 and must be registered in the UK's electoral roll. 18 June would be the last date to enrol on the electoral register. Whereas 19 June would be the application deadline for non-domiciles for a postal vote. They can also apply for a proxy vote, where someone else can vote on the non-domicile's behalf. The final date for a proxy vote application is 26 June. If one has applied for a proxy vote before 31 October 2023, they must reapply. A photo ID is compulsory and one will have to vote at the polling station local to the postcode they have registered to vote with. (“Can Channel Islanders vote in the UK election?,” BBC, 09 June 2024)
REGIONAL
Far-rights gains in the EU elections while the Centre-Rights persist
In the EU elections held between 06-09 June, witnessed around 185 million voters across 27 EU countries shifting the balance of power with the right wings gaining popularity as expected. The pro-European coalition at the centre with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe group will hold the power securing 56 per cent of all seats with 403 lawmakers if there is sufficient political will. Although there is a sufficient increase in the number of seats, there is no particular sweep or majority secured by the Far-Rights. Since the EPP had secured a majority, Ursula von der Leyen is set to have a second term as the President of the European Commission by the Spitzenkandidaten process. Meanwhile, the snap elections set to be conducted in France and also the weakened German Socialist Party of Chancellor Scholz could weaken her nomination. Even if she does pass the stage, she will then need to secure an absolute majority of 361 newly-elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in a secret ballot. The reshuffling of the parliament once the newcomers get into power would benefit the right wing as many of them belong to the Far-Rights like the Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). It could also derail the numbers of the centrist Renew Europe group and also the influence of the centre-right coalition in power. Parties currently categorised as non-attached (NI) could look to join the ECR and boost the nationalist grouping's numbers. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Europe veers right but centre-ground resists: What the EU election results mean and what's next, Euronews, 10 June 2024)
Euro’s value drops as Europe faces political uncertainties
On 10 June, Euronews reported that the euro, which serves as the official currency of 20 members of the EU, slumped as uncertainties followed Macron’s snap elections and parliament dissolution. The euro tumbled one per cent against the US dollar when the market opened on Friday, reaching 1.0774, a nearly one-month low. It also weakened against the British pound to 0.8469, the lowest level since August 2022, and against the Swiss franc to 0.9660, a more than two-month low. The rising uncertainties with the Far-Rights gain in the EU elections lead to challenges in the political and economic arenas as they have the potential to derail the EU’s policies. These right-wing representatives, largely populists, tend to be EU skeptics, anti-immigration, anti-green transition, or pro-Russia. The shift in the balance of power may weaken national and EU-level security policy and thus a decline in economic growth. The European Central Bank had the first cut last week since 2019 which marked the current rate hike cycle. Since the EU’s economy stagnated last year, the continuing political crisis might exacerbate the situation. Meanwhile, the US economy is becoming stronger which could lead investors to sell the euro and buy dollars. (Tina Teng, “Euro slumps after Macron calls election and far-right gains in Europe,” Euronews. business, 10 June 2024)