Photo : New French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou. Source: Bestimage/IMAGO
27 December 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1021
By Samruddhi Pathak
DENMARK
Denmark plans to boost Greenland’s defence
On 25 December, the government of the Kingdom of Denmark announced that it plans to boost Greenland’s defence capacity. The defence spending could amount to anywhere from EUR 1.34 billion to EUR 13.27 billion. The announcement came after Donald Trump, the President of the US, made a statement regarding his interest in purchasing Greenland island, which has only 56,000 people. Trump said that the US would seek ownership and control of Greenland for “purposes of national security and freedom throughout the world.” Meanwhile, Mute Egede, Prime Minister of Greenland, responded to Trump by saying that “Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland” and that the country is not for sale. Greenland was a colony of Denmark until 1953, after which it was included as a district of Denmark. Trump has also shown interest in the US taking control of neighbouring Canada and territories such as Panama. (Malek Fouda, “Denmark to boost Greenland's defence after Trump repeats controversial remarks seeking US ownership,” Euronews, 25 December 2024)
FRANCE
New Government formed under PM Francois Bayrou
On 24 December, the French parliament saw its fourth government being formed in 2024. Elisabeth Borne and Manuel Valls, two former prime ministers, are also a part of the cabinet in the new government as education ministers and overseas territories ministers. Defence and Foreign Ministers are the same as in the previous government. The new government was formed after three weeks of dissolution of the previous government under Michael Barnier. The new Prime Minister is Francois Bayrou. Many political thinkers perceive Bayrou as a centrist choice who can keep a rainbow coalition on board with most laws. One of his first tasks is to pass the 2025 Budget and reach an agreement. He said his government aims to pass the Budget 2025 by February 2025. Barnier had differences with Marine Le Pen, the leader of National Rally, a far-right party, over spending cuts and tax hikes.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, Bayrou might seek Le Pen’s support to pass the new budget. After continuous failed governments, some leaders also demanded Emmanuel Macron’s, the President of France, resignation. However, he will complete his second term, which ends in 2027. (“France unveils new government under PM Francois Bayrou,” Deutsche Welle, 24 December 2024; Kavita Mokha and William Horobin, “Can new premier Francois Bayrou survive France’s perilous politics?,” Bloomberg, 24 December 2024)
GERMANY
Olaf Scholz approval ratings drop
On 24 December, Deutsche Welle reported on the unpopular reputation of Olaf Scholz, the former chancellor of the Federation of Germany. Despite the government losing a confidence motion in the Bundestag, Scholz is running for the chancellor again in February 2025, and the Social Democrats Party (SPD) is endorsing him. The current polls show that the Christian Social union (CSU) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are ahead of SDP. His coalition government named the "traffic light" coalition after the three parties' colors i.e., SPD (red), Neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) (yellow) and Environmentalist Greens (Green) was an alliance among different political ideologies which could not be bridged. While Germany was dealing with COVID-19, Scholz provided billions of Euros of aid to companies to deal with the shutdown. Even though the SPD currently approves Scholz as the top candidate, he has not yet been nominated. A top candidate's official nomination is scheduled at a party conference in January. (Sabine Kinkartz, “How German Chancellor Olaf Scholz became so unpopular,” Deutsche Welle, 24 December 2024)
Alternative for Germany party holds march after Christman market attack in Magdeburg
On 23 December, Alternative for Germany, a far-right party, held a march in Magdeburg, a city in eastern Germany, for the victims of a car-ramming attack in a Christmas market that happened on 20 December. The incident left five people dead and more than 200 injured. A Saudi citizen has also been arrested as the suspect behind the incident. Leaders of the AfD party stated, “Terror has arrived in the city.” The crowd during the march shouted “Deport! Deport!” The incident has brought issues of security and immigration back to the center of German politics ahead of the February 2025 elections. The Magdeburg market was secured with police and heavy barricades, but the attacker managed to drive through a five-metre gap. He drove into the market in a rented BMW vehicle and drove it through the market, injuring more than 200 people. Questions are being raised about security authorities since the local media also reported that the King of Saudi Arabia had warned the German authorities against the person and his mental illness. The accused refuged to Germany in 2006 and got a refugee visa in 2016. (“Germany far-right party AfD holds march after Christmas market attack,” Le Monde, 25 December 2024)
REGIONAL
Heavy snowing in Balkan region
On 25 December, due to heavy snowing in Bosnia and Herzegovina, many households were left without electricity. Roads were blocked, and traffic faced major disruption as access to some towns and villages was blocked entirely. The governments of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia banned the movement of heavy vehicles and imposed limited traffic levels on all affected roads. Media in Bosnia reported that more than 150,000 homes in the country lost power as the storms damaged power lines. Due to loss of electricity, the households also lost access to warm water. Northwestern and western Bosnia were hit hardest by the snow. Residents were left without access to clean drinking water, and schools across the regions were shut down for two days. Many vehicles were stuck in the snow for 10-hours in western Bosnia. The northwestern Bosnian town of Drvar was also completely cut off from the world. Snow piled on the roads and highways, making using cars and railways impossible. Authorities in Drvar declared an emergency as they were trying to clear the snow. (Malek Fouda, “Tens of thousands of homes left without power as heavy snow and winds grip the Balkans,” Euronews, 27 December 2024)
Luxembourg is the top investor in space
On 25 December, the European Space Agency released a report on each country's country-wise expenditure on space programs. Global public investment in space hit a record high of EUR 106 billion in 2023, 11 per cent more than 2022. The US holds around 64 per cent of the Global space investment while China holds around 12 per cent. Luxembourg is the leading investor in space, spending 0.13 percent of its GDP on space programs. Luxembourg is followed by France, which invests 0.167 per cent of its GDP, Italy at 0.103 per cent, and Belgium at 0.095 per cent. However, private investment decreased by 32 per cent 2023 compared to 2022. There were 221 space launches in 2023 globally, 18 per cent more than in 2022. Out of 221, 212 were successful. China accounted for 30 per cent of those launches i.e., 67. (Ines Trindade Pereira, “Who was the leading investor in space in Europe in 2023?,” Euronews, 25 December 2024)
Finland to investigate power outage linking to Estonia
On 25 December, Petteri Orpo, the Prime Minister of Finland, informed the public through his X account that an investigation is still in place to probe the unplanned outage that occurred on the Estlink 2 interconnector. In the past few years, there has been a string of disruptions in power cables, gas pipelines and telecom links in the Baltic Sea. At the time of the outage, electricity flowed in the direction of Finland to Estonia at a rate of 658 MW, according to Arto Pahki, Fingrid control room manager. Meanwhile, NATO suspects that this was an attack by Russia. General Mark Rutte, Secretary of NATO, said that NATO condemns any attacks on critical infrastructure. According to information from the global ship tracking service MarineTraffic, a vessel has been grounded by Finnish authorities. The vessel, the Eagle S, is a tanker registered in the Cook Islands. It had sailed from a Russian port and appeared to have slowed down while passing over the area of the cable when it went offline. The tanker in question was heading towards Egypt from Russia. This also raises concerns about Russia’s shadow fleet. It is a fleet of unregistered Russian tankers to avoid Western sanctions on its oil industry. (“Finland to probe outage in power cable link to Estonia,” Deutsche Welle, 25 December 2024; “Finland probes Russia-linked oil tanker over undersea outage,” Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2024)
Hungary-Poland ties strained due to political collision
On 19 December, Vitor Orban, Hungary's Prime Minister, gave asylum to Marcin Romanowski, former Polish Deputy Justice Minister, who is wanted under a European arrest warrant. The bilateral ties have been strained since Poland's government change in December 2023. After announcing asylum in Hungary, Radoslaw Sikorski, the Foreign Minister of Poland, recalled the Polish ambassador to Hungary for "indefinite consultations" and summoned the Hungarian ambassador in Warsaw to give him a protest note. Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, compared Viktor Orban to Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus. In May 2024, a judge accused of abusing his position to provide favours to certain individuals also fled to Belarus. Orban said that his government will provide asylum to Polish political refugees. (Jacek Lepiarz and Keno Verseck, “Hungary welcomes wanted Polish politicians,” Deutsche Welle, 25 December 2024)
Azerbaijan accuses Russia of the plane crash
On 26 December, an Embraer 190 plane of Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near the shores of Caspian sea in Kazakhstan. The plane was scheduled to fly from Baku to Grozny in southern Russia. After the crash, 38 dead bodies were found and 29 people survived the crash. News agencies like Reuters news agency and the New York Times have suggested that they have found reports linked to the Azeri investigation saying that a Russian missile defense system was likely involved, citing anonymous sources. As per the report published by Deutsche Welle, preliminary results showed a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system struck the plane, and its communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny. During a press conference, Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, said it was too soon to speculate on the cause behind the crash.
Meanwhile, preliminary reports suggest that poor weather had forced the plane to change its course. Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Russian government, said that it would be wrong to hypothesize before the conclusions of the investigation are available. (“Russia urges caution amid theories on Azerbaijan plane crash,” Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2024)
Over 10,000 migrants died or disappeared trying to reach Spain in 2024
On 27 December, Caminando Fronteras, a Migrant advocacy group, published a report that found that 10,547 migrants died or disappeared in 2024 while trying to reach Spain by sea route. The number has increased by 50 per cent since 2023. This amounts to almost 30 deaths per day in 2024. In response, the Interior Ministry of Spain said that more than 57,000 immigrants found refuge in Spain and reached the country by sea route in 2024, 12 per cent higher than in 2023. Most refugees came through the Atlantic route. (“Record toll for migrants missing at sea: Spanish NGO,” Deutsche Welle, 27 December 2024)