Photo : Croatia’s incumbent president, Zoran Milanović. Source: HINA/ Damir SENÈAR/ ua
31 December 2024, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1024
By Samruddhi Pathak
CROATIA
Run-off elections to be held in two weeks
On 30 December, official results of the Presidential elections were released, and Zoran Milanovic narrowly missed the 50 per cent thershold by winning 49.1 per cent of votes. Therefore, run-off elections will be announced between him and Dragan Primorac, the opposition’s candidate, who won 19.35 per cent of votes. The most significant issues during the elections were inflation, widespread corruption and a labour shortage. The president of Croatia cannot veto laws but has a say in foreign policy, defence, and security matters. Andrej Plenkovic, the Prime Minister of Croatia, has differences with Milanovic. He has called Milanovic “pro-Russian” and a threat to Croatia’s international standing. Milanovic is a critic of Europe’s military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Milanovic has given several statements and interviews against Plenkovic and his HDZ party over systemic corruption, calling the premier a “serious threat to Croatia’s democracy.” (“Croatia’s Milanovic to face rival in election run-off next month,” Al Jazeera, 30 December 2024)
FRANCE
Prime Minister outlines plan to restore electricity and water production
On 30 December, Francois Bayrou, the Prime Minister of France, visited Mayotte. Mayotte, an overseas French territory in the Indian Ocean, suffered a devastating Cyclone Chido the previous week, leaving thousands homeless and many casualties. Elisabeth Borne, the education minister of France, and Manuel Valls, France's overseas territory minister, accompanied Bayrou. Bayrou has promised concrete action to rebuild the affected areas. However, his critics said Bayrou was not in Mayotte for more than 24 hours. The population is facing challenges at present, such as accessibility to water and food. Rather than addressing the present issues, Bayrou talked about the future of Mayotte. Meanwhile, survivors are still being searched in the territory. Bayrou said that a draft emergency law to rebuild Mayotte within two years will be submitted to parliament in January. Bayrou outlined plans to restore electricity to all homes by late January, supported by 200 workers and emergency generators. Water production is expected to reach pre-cyclone levels by 06 January. He also announced the deployment of 200 Starlink antennas for emergency communications. Meanwhile, regular school classes will resume from 13 January, with special provisions for exam students. Temporary schooling in mainland France is also being considered. Bayrou also said that local authorities agreed to ban the rebuilding of informal settlements, home to an unknown number of migrants from African nations in the region who hope to make their way to Europe. (“French PM visits Mayotte after Cyclone Chido destruction,” France24, 30 December 2024; “French prime minister unveils recovery plan for devastated Mayotte after Cyclone Chido,” AP News, 31 December 2024)
GERMANY
Elon Musk endorses far-right AfD
On 30 December, Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, said that voters should not let “social media platform owners” decide the course of elections during his New Year’s Eve televised address, pointing towards Elon Musk, the owner of X and one of the richest people in the world. He also said that there had been a surge of disinformation on social media after the Christmas market attack in Magdeburg on 20 December in which five people were killed and more than 200 injured. The car ramming was allegedly committed by a Saudi-born assailant with far-right sympathies. Christiane Hoffmann, the spokesperson of Scholz, stated that Musk is trying to interfere in Germany’s national election campaign with a series of declarations backing the “anti-Muslim, anti-migration AfD, Alternative for Germany, party.” Musk had also endorsed Donald Trump during the US elections. Musk published an editorial in Welt am Sonntag, a newspaper in Germany. In the editorial, he said that “Germany was teetering on the brink of economic and cultural collapse.” According to the Guardian, he also defended the AfD against accusations of radicalism and praised the party’s approach to the economy, including regulation and tax policy. Eva Marie Kogel, the editor of the newspaper’s editorial section, posted on X that she had submitted her resignation in protest at the decision to run the article. Currently, AfD is the second largest party on polls with 19 per cent votes, after Christian Democratic Union and Christian Socialist Democrats who have 31 per cent votes on polls. However, all parties have ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with AfD. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU and the opposition candidate in the national elections, described Musk’s as “intrusive and presumptuous” and called it an example of election interference between “friendly” countries. AfD party has been repeatedly labelled as an extremist organisation. Domestic intelligence agency of Germany also found the AfD to be an extremist party. Leaders from the Greens party have also called for banning AfD. (Deborah Cole, “Olaf Scholz: German election ‘will not be decided by social media owners,” The Guardian, 30 December 2024; Tamsin Paternoster, “German government accuses Elon Musk of trying to influence upcoming election,” Euronews, 30 December 2024)
MOLDOVA
Associated Press predicts an energy crisis
On 30 December, the Associated Press reported on the anxiety in Moldova over the decision announced by Gazprom, a state-owned gas supply company in Russia. Gazprom has announced that it will halt gas supply to Moldova from 01 January due to EUR 709 million debt for past supplies, which is still unpaid. Moldova and other Western countries contest the figure. The cessation will stop gas flowing to the Kuciurgan power plant, the largest power plant in the country. The power plant lies in the Transnistria region, a separatist pro-Russia region that most countries do not recognise. On 13 December, the parliament of Moldova voted in favour of declaring a state emergency due to the energy crisis. Energy shortages could force residents in Transnistria to travel to Moldova to seek basic amenities to get through winter, a season in which temperatures regularly drop below sub-zero degrees Celsius. Moldova has accused Russia of using energy as a political tool against them. (“‘No heating, no light’: Moldovans fear looming energy shortage as Russia halts gas supplies,” Associated Press , 30 December 2024)
REGIONAL
Putin apologies for Azerbaijan Airlines crash
On 30 December, President of the Federation of Russia, Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s air defence systems were active when the plane attempted to land in Grozny. He apologised that the plane crashed. However, as Azerbaijan accuses, he did not admit that Russian defence forces unintentionally caused it. The crash left 38 passengers killed. The US said that initial conclusions lead to the involvement of a Russian anti-aircraft system. Russia’s investigative committee has opened a criminal case to the disaster. According to the official presidential statement of Azerbaijan, the plane “encountered external physical and technical interference while in Russian airspace, resulting in a complete loss of control.” Five airlines have temporarily suspended flights to areas in Russia since the disaster, including Azerbaijan Airlines, Turkmenistan Airlines, El Al Israel, Flydubai and Qazaq Air. (Darya Tarasova, Catherine Nicholls and Hassan Tayir, “Putin apologises over ‘tragic’ Azerbaijan Airlines crash, without admitting responsibility,” CNN, 30 December 2024)
Finland accuses Russia of damaging electricity cable link in the Baltic Sea
On 30 December, Finnish investigators said they found a drag mark caused by an anchor near the cable link and a seabed trail of almost 100 kilometres. The ship that allegedly caused the damage, the Eagle S, sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, is believed to be part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. The shadow fleet is used to transport Russian oil products and bypass the embargoes imposed on Russian ships. The dragging of the anchor has caused damage to Estlink 2, an electricity cable link that would provide electricity to Estonia. The cable will take months to repair, which could lead to increased electricity prices in Estonia over the winter. Media reports in Finland suggest that the crew of the Eagle S was made up of Georgian and Indian nationals. The ship had recently docked in Russia and was believed to carry Russian oil products. It was stopped before any damage to Estlink 1, a second electricity cable linking Finland and Estonia. Estonia has launched a naval and special forces operation to protect the remaining pipeline. Meanwhile, the owner of the Eagle S, United Arab Emirates-based Caravella LLC FZ, filed a request with the Helsinki District Court on Monday to cancel the ship's seizure. Herman Ljungberg, the lawyer who filed the documents on behalf of the company, said authorities had not provided any explanation of the legal basis for taking the vessel into custody and boarding it. (“Owner seeks release of oil tanker seized in Finland cable probe,” Reuters, 30 December 2024; Shaun Walker, “Sixty-mile drag mark found near damaged Baltic Sea cable, says Finland,” The Guardian, 30 December 2024)
Stagnancy in EU’s EV industry
On 30 December, the Guardian reported the EU’s EV industry stagnation. No launches from homegrown electric models were less than EUR 25,000 during 2022 and 2023. Meanwhile, the EU has introduced stricter environmental laws, which will be implemented on 01 January 2025. This will push the carmakers to sell more electric cars or face fines. In 2024, China’s EV industry recorded the highest sales and growth rate while Europe faced a slowdown. A key factor in the decline has been the withdrawal of generous subsidies for new electric cars in Germany, the continent’s biggest market for EVs. In contrast, Volkswagen has announced plans to close three factories in Germany. Ford is cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, while Stellantis has repeatedly halted assembly operations at its main plant in Mirafiori, Italy. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), an influential lobby group, has called for a “clear political statement by the European Commission by the end of 2024” that pledges to relax the emissions rules in order to save jobs. Prime Minister of Italy, Georgia Meloni, is leading the campaign to relax emission rules. Ursula von der Leyen, has scheduled a “strategic dialogue” in January 2025 about the European Automobile Industry. ACEA has argued that the fines are too high and that the industry will slow down due to these fines. (Jasper Jolly, “Can flood of cheap new EVs coming to Europe save its carmakers?,” The Guardian, 30 December 2024)
INTERNATIONAL
Kim Jong Un called Putin “dearest friend and comrade”
On 31 December, Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, sent his New Year’s greetings to Vladimir Putin, the President of the Federation of Russia. He called Putin his “dearest friend and comrade.” He also wished that 2025 would be the year when Putin defeated neo-Nazism. North Korea has provided Russia with soldiers to fight the war in Ukraine, as per South Korea and US’ claims. John Kirby, the spokesperson of the White House, said that at least 1,000 North Korean troops have either been killed or wounded last week alone in Russia’s Kursk region. In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a defence pact. Under the pact, immediate military aid will be provided if the other country is attacked. (“North Korea’s Kim calls Putin his 'dearest friend,” Deutsche Welle, 31 December 2024)