Photo : Hannes P Albert/dpa/AP/Euronews
04 February 2025, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1054
BELARUS
Aleksandr Lukashenko to continue as President
On 26 January, according to Central Election Commission (CEC) Chairman Igor Karpenko, Aleksandr Lukashenko secured 86.82 per cent votes in Belarus’s presidential elections. Whereas other candidates such as, Oleg Gaidukevich received 2.02 per cent, Anna Kanopatskaya, 1.86 per cent, Sergei Syrankov received 3.21 per cent, and Aleksandr Khizhnyak got 1.74 per cent. Meanwhile, 3.60 per cent of voters opted "None of the above." Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, will now continue into a seventh term. The opposition was Hanna Kanapatskaya, presenting as a "democratic alternative" while voicing opposition to his policies. Kanapatskaya, another candidate who received only 1.7 per cent votes acknowledged Lukashenko's victory as fraudulent. On the same day, Lukashenko claimed Belarus had a "brutal democracy" but insisted that no one was silenced. Opposition leader-in-exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who fled Belarus after the 2020 election, condemned the process as a "farce." Several human rights groups pointed to 1,200 political prisoners, following the 2020 mass protests. The EU's Kaja Kallas also criticized the election as a "sham." Analysts predict Lukashenko is preparing his son to become a successor. (“Belarus: Strongman Lukashenko set for 7th term in power,” Deutsche Welle, 26 January 2025; “Lukashenko wins 86.82% of vote in Belarus president election,” BeltaNews, 27 January 2025)
GEORGIA
Opposition triggered protests led to arrest of two leaders
On 02 February, Georgian police arrested two opposition leaders, Nika Melia and Gigi Ugulava, during a protest in Tbilisi against the ruling Georgian Dream party. The protest was sparked by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze's announcement that Georgia would not seek EU membership talks before 2028. EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, condemned: "…brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters, journalists, and politicians," expressing solidarity with the Georgian people. Melia, leader of the liberal Akhali party, was later released on bail after reporting mistreatment while in custody. The protests, which saw thousands gather and briefly block a major road, were fuelled by opposition allegations of election fraud during the October elections, which the Georgian Dream claimed to have won. The protests also followed a controversial law passed in 2023 allowing increased government oversight of NGOs and the media. (Saim Dušan Inayatullah, “Georgia: Police arrest two opposition leaders amid protests,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2025)
GERMANY
Mass protests in Berlin against CDU for seeking AfD support over asylum bill
On 02 February, over 160,000 people gathered in Berlin to protest the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for seeking support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in parliament, particularly over an asylum bill. The CDU, alongside the CSU and other parties, backed the bill, which was narrowly rejected, but the CDU's cooperation with the AfD sparked widespread outrage. Protesters said: "Shame on you CDU," accused the party of breaking a longstanding taboo against collaborating with far-right groups. CDU leader Friedrich Merz distanced himself from the alliance, insisting there would be no cooperation with the AfD. This collaboration, despite the bill's rejection, led to former CDU vice president Michel Friedman resigning, calling it: "Catastrophic watershed for democracy." Protests against the CDU/CSU's actions also spread across multiple German cities, highlighting concerns about the rising influence of the far-right in politics. (“Berlin: 160,000 protest against CDU-AfD collaboration,” Deutsche Welle, 02 February 2024)
Parliament rejects immigration law proposed by AfD
On 31 January, Euronews reported on Germany's parliament recent rejection of a controversial immigration law proposed by opposition leader Friedrich Merz and his center-right Union bloc, which aimed to tighten migration controls. The law, which included measures like ending family reunions for certain migrants and expanding deportation powers, failed to pass after an intense debate. The final vote saw 350 votes against and 338 in favor, with five abstentions. This bill became a focal point of controversy after Merz's bloc worked with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to push it through, breaking a long-standing political "firewall" against collaboration with far-right groups. Merz has made tougher migration laws a central issue in his campaign for the upcoming 23 February election, especially after a deadly knife attack by a rejected asylum-seeker. However, his use of AfD support has sparked criticism, including from former Chancellor Angela Merkel and members of his own party. Critics argue that his strategy could embolden the AfD and weaken Germany's democratic values, while Merz insists that he will not form a coalition with the far-right. The vote rejection amplifies the rift between Merz's bloc and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left government, with the Union currently leading in the polls. Despite the defeat, Merz continues to push for tougher migration policies, aiming to sway public opinion and diminish the appeal of the AfD. Protests erupted across Germany in response to his tactics, and the political landscape remains divided as the country heads into an election that could reshape its government. (“Germany's parliament narrowly rejects immigration law amid controversy over far-right support,” France24, 31 January 2025)
20,000 protestors rally against AfD ahead of February elections
On 25 January, several thousands of Germans protested in Berlin and other cities against the rise of the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party ahead of the February general election. At Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate, demonstrators lit their phones, blew whistles, and sang anti-fascist songs, while in Cologne, protesters carried banners denouncing AfD. The centre-right Union party, led by Friedrich Merz, is currently leading in polls, with AfD in second place. Merz has pledged to toughen migration policies, which risks gaining support from AfD if it goes to a vote. Activists, including Fridays for Future, organised the rallies to draw attention to the growing far-right influence, with protesters like Thomas Schneemann stressing the importance of unity against the far-right. Meanwhile, AfD held its campaign rally in Halle, where leader Alice Weidel, backed by Elon Musk, spoke to a crowd of 4,500. However, Weidel is unlikely to become chancellor as other parties refuse to work with AfD. The far-right is currently in second place in the polls with 20 per cent, behind the center-right CDU/CSU bloc at 31 per cent. Elon Musk again expressed his support for AfD, appearing via video at their campaign launch, which drew criticism for his comments on German pride and historical guilt. Meanwhile, protests against right-wing extremism drew tens of thousands, with police estimating over 20,000 participants in Cologne alone. Despite the large turnout, the demonstrations were largely peaceful. (“Thousands in Germany protest against the rise of the far right ahead of general election,” Euronews, 25 January 2025)
President begins Middle-East tour to discuss on shifting security landscape
On 03 February, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier began a three-day Middle East tour on Monday, visiting Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey. His discussions will focus on Syria’s shifting security landscape, humanitarian aid for Syria and Gaza, Iran's declining regional influence, and the impact of US policy changes under President Trump. Steinmeier's visit to Saudi Arabia marks the first time a German head of state has officially visited the kingdom, where he will meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and visit cultural sites. In Jordan, he will meet King Abdullah II and visit German troops stationed at the al-Azraq airbase. Steinmeier will end his trip in Turkey, where he will discuss Syria’s stabilization with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The visit comes at a time of strained relations, particularly over Germany’s support for Israel's military actions in Gaza, which has caused friction with some Arab nations. Germany has historically supported Palestinian statehood but has faced criticism due to its backing of Israel's response to the Hamas attack on 07 October 2023. (Jon Shelton and Matt Ford, “German president travels to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2025)
GREENLAND
Independence movement sparked criticising Trump’s claims
On 03 February, Greenland's independence movement gained fresh momentum following US President Trump's controversial comments about acquiring the territory, sparking a renewed focus on the issue. While most Greenlanders (85 per cent) oppose joining the US, the rhetoric has provided an opportunity for advocates of self-determination to push for greater autonomy. Influencers like Qupanuk Olsen have criticized Trump's colonial mindset, emphasizing that Greenland's future should be determined by its people, not foreign powers. Though many desire stronger self-governance, they still value Denmark's support and are cautious about independence’s potential economic impacts. However, some, like MP Pele Broberg, see Trump’s interest as an unexpected catalyst for their cause, allowing them to spotlight Greenland’s geopolitical importance while exploring strategic alliances, particularly with the US, without severing ties to Europe. (“Greenland’s independence movement sees opportunity in Trump’s interest,” Euronews, 03 February 2025)
ITALY
Government ships back 49 migrants to Albania
On 25 January, Italy’s government resumed its controversial policy of sending unwanted migrants to Albania after a two-month pause due to legal challenges. 49 migrants were sent to Albania aboard the navy ship Cassiopea, bound for the port of Shengjin. Italy's policy targets adult male migrants from countries deemed "safe," ensuring they are in good physical and mental health. However, 53 other migrants managed to present passports from countries not considered safe by Italy in an attempt to avoid deportation. After processing in Shengjin, migrants are sent to a detention centre in Gjader. Italy's stance contradicts a European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling, which states that asylum applications cannot be fast-tracked for migrants from countries not deemed fully safe. Despite this, Italy maintains that nations like Bangladesh and Egypt are safe, backed by a ruling from Italy's Supreme Court. In January 2025, Italy saw an increase in migrant arrivals, with 1,750 migrants reaching the country, compared to 1,300 in January 2024. (Fortunato Pinto, “Italy resumes policy of sending its unwanted migrants to Albania,” Euronews, 26 January 2025)
REGIONAL
Protests in Brussels call for permanent ceasefire in Gaza
On 26 January, thousands of protesters marched through Brussels, demanding a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and urging both the Belgian government and the EU to impose sanctions on Israel. The rally, organized by Belgian NGOs including Amnesty International and Pax Christi, called for the protection of Palestinians, the release of political prisoners, and access to humanitarian aid for Gaza. Protesters also advocated for an international military embargo on Israel and support for an International Criminal Court investigation into the conflict. Despite a recent ceasefire, conditions in Gaza remain dire, with over 46,000 Palestinians reported killed, and 1.9 million displaced. Human rights groups and activists called for long-term solutions addressing the occupation and apartheid-like conditions. The protest came amid rising violence in the West Bank, where Israeli forces launched an operation in Jenin and settlers clashed with Palestinians, exacerbating tensions. The situation in Gaza continues to be critical, with calls for reconstruction plans and international intervention growing stronger. (David O'Sullivan & Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom, “Thousands march on streets of Brussels demanding permanent ceasefire in Gaza,” Euronews, 26 January 2025)
Undersea cable between Latvia and Sweden damaged
On 26 January, an undersea fiber optic cable linking Latvia and Sweden, owned by the Latvian State Radio and Television Center (LVRTC), was likely damaged by external forces on Sunday in the Baltic Sea. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina confirmed that the damage was significant, and investigations are underway in cooperation with Sweden and NATO. The cable, which connects Ventspils in Latvia with Gotland Island in Sweden, was damaged in Sweden's exclusive economic zone. Sweden's prosecutors have launched a preliminary investigation, seizing a vessel suspected of carrying out the sabotage. Latvia's Navy is also inspecting other ships in the area. While the damage is severe, LVRTC assured that services are still being provided via alternative routes, with minimal impact on users despite potential delays in data transmission speeds. NATO, which has been increasing its presence in the Baltic since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is also involved in protecting critical infrastructure in the region. (“Latvia: Undersea cable likely damaged by external influence,” Deutsche Welle, 27 January 2025)
EU leaders meet in Brussels discuss to determine future of Europe’s defence policy
On 03 February, the EU leaders held meeting in Brussels for a pivotal informal summit dedicated solely to defence. The summit will take place at the Palais d'Egmont and will focus on key issues concerning Europe’s defence priorities and how to finance them. With escalating threats, especially from Russia, and the EU's desire to enhance its defence autonomy, these discussions are crucial.Two major issues are on the agenda. First, military capabilities. EU leaders aim to decide which defence capabilities need prioritising, such as air and maritime defence, military mobility, cyber defence, and drones. However, disagreements persist on which countries should acquire and control these capabilities, and whether EU funding should be tied to European-produced equipment. Second, financing defence. There's broad consensus that defence should receive a larger share of the EU budget, but opinions differ on how to fund it. Proposals include adjusting fiscal rules to allow defence spending outside national budgets, issuing Eurobonds, or expanding the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) mandate. Some countries, like Denmark, have warmed to the idea of Eurobonds, while others, especially frugal nations, are hesitant to make drastic changes to fiscal rules. This comes after criticism by US President Trump against NATO allies for not meeting defence spending targets. The EU is aiming to bolster its defence capabilities. The summit is predicted to lay ground for the European Commission's White Paper on Defence which is due on 19 March and is seen as an essential step in shaping Europe's future defence policy. However, the debate over balancing fiscal responsibility with increasing defence spending will continue. (Alice Tidey, “EU leaders meet to thrash out defence priorities and iron out remaining but significant divisions,” Euronews, 03 February 2025)
Trump calls out EU’s trade deficit with the US as “atrocity”
On 03 February, US President, Donald Trump escalated tensions with the EU and the UK by criticizing the EU’s EUR 300 billion trade deficit with the US, calling it an “atrocity” and warning of imminent tariffs on EU goods. While he suggested that the UK could "work things out" with the US, his comments on the EU were far more hostile, potentially complicating UK-EU relations as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to Brussels to reset trade ties. This comes amid Trump’s broader strategy of using aggressive trade policies, including tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, to force trade concessions, with potential global repercussions. Despite acknowledging that American consumers may feel “some pain” from the trade war, Trump's actions signal a continued effort to recalibrate global trade dynamics, especially with major partners like the EU and UK. (Rory Elliott Armstrong, “Trump takes aim at EU and UK in latest tariff threat,” Euronews, 03 February 2025)