Photo : Soeren Stache/dpa/picture alliance
23 May 2025, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1141
By Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
GERMANY
Signs a defence deal with the Philippines to diversify cooperation beyond the US
On 22 May, Germany deepens its defence engagement with the Philippines,to diversify their security beyond just the US and Russia. The new defence agreement between Germany and the Philippines includes cooperation in logistics, cybersecurity, arms, and peacekeeping. This was followed by a visit by Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius to Manila, and underscored Germany’s strategic interest in the Indo-Pacific region. The Philippines has been actively expanding its defence relations by recently signing deals with Japan and New Zealand and also planning similar deals with Canada and France. These moves come as rising tensions grow with China over the South China Sea region and worrying concerns of US’ security assessments. Seemingly, Germany is also increasing its regional engagement by releasing warships to the Indo-Pacific and joining the Defence Ministers’ Meeting as an observer. Germany aims to enhance its defence industry as Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems, a German shipbuilding firm competes to supply submarines to the Philippines as part of Manila’s USD 35 billion plan of military modernisation. (David Hutt, “Southeast Asia taps Germany's defense industry,” Deutsche Welle, 22 May 2025)
Police arrest teenagers after setting fire to a cultural centre
On 21 May, the German police had arrested five teenagers, who are minors and affiliated with a right-wing extremist group known as “The Last Wave of Defence.” It was formed in April 2024, with motive to attack migrants and political oppositions to destabilise the country’s democracy. Two suspects face charges of attempted murder and arson after setting fire to a cultural centre, while the other planned to attack asylum seekers' shelters. All of them are citizens of Germany, and a few other suspected members ranging from the 18-21 age group are also under view of investigation. The authorities said it is very alarming as minors are involved in such activities, highlighting the rise of far-right extremism in Germany. (Kieran Guilbert, “Germany arrests five teenagers over alleged right-wing extremist plot and attacks,” Euronews, 21 May 2025)
FRANCE
Macron announces rescue measures after floods in southeastern region
On 21 May, severe storms and flooding in France's Southeastern region of Var killed at least three people. while two are still missing. This rapid rain damaged roads, utilities, and trains, resulting in emergency response to it and cleanup work. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has also pledged support for recovery, seemingly around 200 firefighters are working towards fixing and restoring the infrastructure. Macron said: “We will be there, with the rescue forces, to get through the next few hours.” While Mayor Gil Bernardi warned: “Have to rebuild everything that was destroyed: roads, bridges, banks, wastewater treatment plant, coastline.” (“Three dead and two missing after floods ravage French Riviera,” Euronews, 21 May 2025)
ROMANIA
Constitutional Court confirms Nicușor Dan as a president
On 22 May, Romania’s Constitutional Court confirmed Nicușor Dan as the winner of the presidential election of 18 May, dismissing the appeal of far-right opponent George Simion. Dan, the pro-EU Mayor of Bucharest, won the runoff with 53.6 per cent votes, which is 829,000 more than Simion. The court did not find any basis for Simion’s challenge of foreign interference by Moldova and France, which were also rejected by election authorities and observers. After the ruling, Dan thanked the voters and promised to meet the responsibilities of his post, also looking to resolve the issues regarding the politically divided Romania. Simion rather disregarded the court's decision and termed it a “coup d’etat” and vowed to dissent as the opposition. The elections were done with months of political instability as well as the annulment of previous elections due to alleged interference from Russia that left Romania with deep political tensions amidst regional tensions and economic issues. (Dmytro Hubenko, “Romania: Top court rejects appeal to annul election results” Deutsche Welle, 22 May 2025)
REGIONAL
EU signs ‘Szczecin Declaration’ recognising the need of clean fules in shipping
On 16 May, EU Ministers signed the Szczecin Declaration on the 11th International Maritime Congress in Poland, stressing the importance of shipping in the security of Europe. This declaration recognises the importance of energy, food and security of the supply chain in shipping. It calls for fair regulation and global standards. It focuses on taking initiatives for clean fuels and suggests using EU and its Emission Trading System (ETS) revenues to minimise price for greener alternatives. Thus, the access to finance is seen as essential and keeping an eye over the issue of strictness in baking rules and its effect on smaller shipping firms. By keeping competition as its main course of maritime strategy, it echoes shipowners' belief of considering it crucial for the betterment of their industry. (“Szczecin Declaration: Competitiveness of European shipping at the centre of EU maritime industrial strategy,” European Shipowners, 16 May 2025)
“Euro to grow by 0.9 from 1.9 per cent” says The New York Times
On 20 May, the EU lowered its forecast growth for 2025, citing disagreements of trade and tariffs of the US under President Donald Trump. The EU's administrative arm has expected its Euro to grow by a mere 0.9 per cent from 1.9 per cent and the wider EU by 1.1 per cent from 1.5 per cent that was forecasted in 2024. While Germany’s economy hits low as projected to stand with a 1.9 per cent drop in exports due to these tariffs. Similarly, France and Italy also face downgrades ahead. Though the EU’s labour market stays strong as 1.7 million jobs were added the previous year, it is expected to grow over two million jobs this year but 2025 is clouded by trade issues and climate risks. Alas, growth is expected to bounce bank positively by 2026 when supported by defence spending and a new EU-UK trade deal. (Melissa Eddy, “Tariff Uncertainty Threatens to Drag Down Europe’s Economic Growth,” New York Times, 20 May 2025)
INTERNATIONAL
UK finalises trade deal with the EU, US and India to boost economy
On 20 May, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer had finalised trade deals with the EU, US and India by aiming to re-establish the UK's global role after Brexit. These deals show a balanced approach by the major partners, but they also came with politically sensitive directives. The EU deal restores some benefits that were lost, but calls for extending European fishing rights in UK waters for 12 years. The US agreement reduces the tariffs on UK-manufactured cars but opens them to more American agricultural imports. Even though the UK sees these as a win for their economy, some experts say that the benefits are just 0.2 per cent from the EU deal compared to a 5.5 per cent loss from Brexit to their GDP. While analysts say that the UK now faces a complex landscape in its trade, torn between the US, EU and China. (Mark Landler, “U.K. Trade Deals Bare the Reality: It’s a Midsize Economy Among Giants,” New York Times, 20 May 2025)