Photo : REUTERS/Lesley Martin
30 May 2025, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1147
By Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
PORTUGAL
Chega Party becomes the new opposition in the parliament
On 29 May, after the centre-right coalition won Portugal's general election, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro ruled out any deal pertaining to the far-right Chega party to form a new government with them. Hence, Chega party has become Portugal’s main opposition party, having 60 seats more than the Socialist Party (PS), including overseas vote counts. The political climate was shifting as Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance was emerging as the largest bloc, having 91 out of 230 seats. This embarked with the breaking of the traditional alternating cycle between the centre-right and centre-left governments. Chega, which was seen as a fringe movement, was now rising increasingly after campaigning on anti-immigration notions and capitalising on broader far-right momentum across Europe. Its leader, Andre Ventura, was declaring a “profound change” in Portuguese politics. As this election had been taking place amidst the controversy, after Montenegro lost a confidence vote linked to his concerns over his business dealings, to which he was seen denying. (Estelle Nilsson-Julien, “Far-right Chega overtakes Socialists as Portugal's main opposition party in parliament,” Euronews, 29 May 2025)
ROMANIA
Nicusor Dan sworn as President
On 26 May, Romania's newly elected President Nicușor Dan ended the worst political scenario in decades after the previous election was annulled. Dan, a 56-year-old mathematician and former Mayor of Bucharest, was decisively winning on 18 May runoff elections against hard-right rival, George Simion, whose legal plea was rejected the previous week. At the inauguration in a joint parliamentary session, Dan was signing the constitutional oath and promising to address Romania’s economic issues while remaining “open to the voice of society.” He was calling for fundamental change and urging continued social engagement to pressure institutions for reform. The elections redo was being held months after the Constitutional Court voided the previous votes that had seen the far-right outsider Calin Georgescu lead the first round amidst allegations of electoral violations and Russian interference, which Moscow denied. (Stephen McGrath, “Romania’s new president is sworn in as a political crisis eases, but challenges loom,” AP News, 26 May 2025)
REGIONAL
EU on track towards 2030 climate goals, says Reuters
On 28 May, the EU was closing in near to its 2030 climate goals. As their current policies are projected to cut emissions by 54 per cent, as just short of its 55 per cent goal. In 2023, missions had dropped 37 per cent from 1990 levels. Even the economy grew nearly 70 per cent, showing that climate action and growth were advancing together. The various European governments had put forth efforts in recent years, though pressure from some was pushing Brussels to soften its green measures and high energy costs. The energy sector was leading progress as with renewables covering 24 per cent of EU energy use in 2023. While, in contrast, agriculture and transport were lagging. The farmer protests led to loosened environmental rules, but then the wildfires were damaging natural carbon sinks, which were now unlikely to recover by 2030. The EU’s 2040 climate plan was being delayed amid political pushback. (Kate Abnett, “EU almost on track to reach 2030 climate goal,” Reuters, 29 May 2025)
EU to cut 90 per cent emissions by 2040
On 27 May, the EU was preparing a 90 per cent emissions cut by 2040, sticking to its goal but then adding “flexibilities” like international carbon credits to ease political resistance. The EU’s climate chief, Teresa Ribera, had warned against weakening domestic efforts too much, saying that the target must remain credible. The final plan that is expected by early June may also outline a 2035 goal for the EU that has yet to submit under the Paris Agreement. While the EU is nearly on track for its 2030 target with a projected 54 per cent cut, Ribera voiced concern over the growing political silence and backlash against climate action. As she stated, “it’s about life or death” by urging the politicians to stay committed despite rising populist pressure. (Zia Wiese, “Brussels to propose ‘pragmatic’ 90 percent climate target for 2040,” Politico, 27 May 2025)
INTERNATIONAL
EU is facing hurdles from the US proposal over a 500 per cent tariff against Russia
On 28 May, a new US Senate bill proposed 500 per cent tariffs on any country buying Russian fossil fuels to pressure them over Ukraine’s conflict. It is backed by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, it aims to isolate Russia and hold buyers like China accountable. However, this bill risked harming up to twelve EU countries that are still dependent on Russian energy, threatening their exports to the US. It allowed the president to grant temporary exemptions for “national security” but faced enforcement challenges due to many countries being involved, even the US’ allies. The critics warned that this bill could spark a new trade war and complicate diplomacy, largely supporting US’ Donald Trump's rhetoric rather than solely targeting Russia. (Jorge Liboreiro, “New US Senate bill could wreck Russia, but also damage the EU economy,” Euronews, 28 May 2025)
IMF praises the UK over its economic growth forecast
On 27 May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was upgrading its UK growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2 per cent, from 1.1 per cent, as it was seeing a recovery in its way. It was expecting growth to accelerate in 2025, though the issue of weak production was continuing to weigh on long-term prospects. The IMF was praising the UK’s fiscal plans for balancing growth and sustainability, but also was urging them to maintain their deficit reduction to stabilise debt. It was also recommending that Chancellor Rachel Reeves refine fiscal rules to avoid emergency spending cuts during downturns. Meanwhile, markets were rallying after US President Donald Trump delayed his proposed 50 per cent tariffs on the EU’s goods until July, which lifted the FTSE 100 index and pushed Germany’s DAX index to record highs. (Graeme Wearden, “IMF lifts UK growth forecast for 2025; markets welcome US delay to EU 50% tariffs – as it happened,” The Guardian, 27 May 2025)
EU proposed the creation of a Black Sea security hub to improve surveillance
On 28 May, the EU was envisioning a Black Sea security hub to support peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine. The EU was aiming to strengthen its role in the region by setting up the hub to protect infrastructure, clear mines, combat certain hybrid threats and ensure free navigation. It was also targeting Russia’s influence and was being considered for future monitoring for peace. The EU's diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was highlighting the strategic value and also was warning that Russia’s war was undermining its actual potential. Yet, the plan lacked dedicated funding and depended on future EU budget talks. It was hoped that the region’s importance would convince members to support this initiative. While a key threat was coming from Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which was bypassing sanctions and also posing security and environmental risks. Kallas was also acknowledging the issue and was considering broader cooperation to address it within legal boundaries. (Jorge Liboreiro, “EU pitches security hub to protect Black Sea from Russia's threats and 'shadow fleet',” Euronews, 28 May 2025)