Photo : AP Photo/Omar Havana
15 July 2025, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #1183
By Merin Treesa Alex
INTERNATIONAL
EU proposes EUR 72 billion retaliatory tariffs on US goods
On 14 July, EU trade ministers met in Brussels, where Trade Commissioner Maroš ŠefÄoviÄ proposed a EUR 72 billion retaliatory tariff package on imports from the United States. The move follows threats from Washington to impose 30 per cent tariffs on EU goods from 01 August. The revised list, which was initially EUR 95 billion, includes key products such as aircraft and bourbon, and it is awaiting formal approval by member states. ŠefÄoviÄ stressed the EU’s readiness for “all outcomes,” while reaffirming their commitment to further negotiation. A separate EUR 21 billion countermeasure, which was previously delayed, is now set to take effect from 01 August. France continues to push for strict action, such as the use of the 2023 anti-coercion instrument, though Commission President von der Leyen has ruled it out for now. Internal EU divisions remain on how to respond, depending on national economic interests. The EU remains focused on avoiding escalation while preparing for proportionate responses. (Peggy Corlin& Gregoire Lory, “EU trade ministers discuss €72 billion retaliatory tariffs on US goods,” Euronews, 14 July 2025)
Belarus and Myanmar sign mutual agreement on mutual protection of classified information
On 14 July, the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of the Union of Myanmar signed and ratified an agreement on the mutual protection of classified information. The agreement was ratified into law by President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus, and it was finalised during the visit of Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of Myanmar's State Administration Council, to Belarus on 7 March. The agreement provides a legal framework to safeguard the state secrets shared between the two countries and aims to strengthen bilateral cooperation, particularly in military, technical, scientific, and other areas. (“Belarus ratifies agreement with Myanmar on protection of classified information,” BelTA, 14 July)
Astronauts to return from ISS axiom mission
On 14 July, the International Space Station (ISS) welcomed the return of its first visitors from India, Hungary, and Poland, who splashed down in the Pacific Ocean off Southern California. The crew included Shubhanshu Shukla, Slawosz Uznanski-Wisniewski, and Tibor Kapu, accompanied by veteran U.S. astronaut Peggy Whitson from Axiom Space. The mission, launched on 25 June from NASA’s Kennedy Space Centre, marked the first time in over 40 years that the three countries had sent astronauts into orbit. It was privately funded, with each participating country contributing over USD 65 million. During their mission, the astronauts conducted dozens of scientific experiments. Meanwhile, the ISS continues to be staffed by seven long-term crew members from the US, Russia, and Japan, with a new crew scheduled to arrive soon. (Gavin Blackburn, “Astronauts from Poland, Hungary and India head back to Earth ending first ISS mission,” Euronews, 14 July 2025)
REGIONAL
Extreme climate change the “new normal” says Met Office report 2025
On 14 July, Euronews reported on the climate report released by the Met Office, which confirms that the record-breaking heat and rainfall are part of the UK’s new normal due to climate change. As the country has just faced its third major heatwave of the year, the report highlights a warming trend, with 2024 recorded as the fourth hottest since the records began, which were in 1884. The country saw an increase of 0.25 °C per decade since the 1980s, and a 1.2 °C increase in heat in the last decade since the 1961- 1990 baseline. There has been a significant shift in the rainfall patterns, especially in Winter, which is from October to March. The winters are getting wetter, and the 2023-24 winter was the wettest in over 250 years in some of the UK. Additionally, the UK sea levels are rising faster than the global average rate, which increases the risk of coastal flooding, especially during storms. Climate change is not limited to weather events; it is impacting the timing of seasonal events like frogspawn and bird nesting, which signals that spring is occurring earlier than expected. The scientists are urging for a faster adaptation to cope with the growing risks of heatwaves, floods and rising sea levels. (“Heatwaves, floods and sea level rise: UK weather extremes are increasing, Met Office confirms,” Euronews, 14 July 2025)
Germany and Ireland to face the most brunt of US tariffs says Euronews
On 11 July, Euronews reported on EU economies facing vulnerabilities amid trade tensions with the US. According to the report, Germany and Ireland were the most vulnerable economies. The US had imposed a 25 per cent tariff on cars and car parts in April. Germany was affected the most, which, according to Bruegel, could reduce the country’s GDP by 0.4 per cent in the long run. In Ireland, 53 per cent of its exports are to the US, among which 55 per cent were pharmaceuticals. The tariffs could cause a GDP loss of four to five per cent by 2028. Other vulnerable countries include Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, and Italy, which were either dependent on Germany’s supply chains or had major transport and pharmaceutical industries. Pharmaceuticals accounted for 15 per cent of EU goods exports to the US, and the sector remained at high risk, with speculation that tariffs could go up to 200 per cent, although experts considered this unlikely. The EU economy as a whole is expected to see a manageable impact, which depends on the outcomes of the negotiations, but tariffs could reduce EU trade volumes by around 8 per cent in the next five years, according to Oxford Economics.( Doloresz Katanich, Which European economy stands to suffer the most from US tariffs?, Euronews, 11 July 2025)
Members of European Parliament voted for a motion of censure reveals declining support for Ursula von der Leyen
On 11 July, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) voted on a motion of censure against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her Commission. A total of 175 voted in favour, 360 opposed the motion, and 18 abstained. Although the motion did not pass, the reduced support for the Commission compared to the previous vote in 2024 presents a challenge for von der Leyen’s second term. Many MEPs from the Left, Socialists and Democrats, Greens, and Renew Europe chose not to vote, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with the current Commission, without directly backing a far-right motion. Meanwhile, far-right groups felt emboldened by the outcome and may attempt to bring forward another motion in the future. The vote also carries significance ahead of the upcoming EU budget negotiations, where von der Leyen will have to balance demands for social funding, defence spending, and strategic investments, while also accommodating those who expect concessions in return for their support. ( Vincenzo Genovese, “Von der Leyen wounded: Five ways EU confidence vote shook her,” Euronews, 11 July 2025)
EU concludes the Arctic Forum; Commits to uphold Arctic sustainable development
On 10 July, the EU commissioner for fisheries and Ocean Costas Kadis visited the Saami parliament in Inari, Finland. The visit was following the EU Arctic Forum, Indigenous Peoples’ Dialogue, and Arctic Youth Dialogue, both Arctic and EU youth representatives that were present suggested recommendations on sustainable transport, excessive consumption, and also balancing critical raw material demand with local prosperity. This marks the first time ever the EU Commissioner visits the chamber that receives partial EU funding. Kadis met the acting President Tuomas Aslak Juuso to discuss how the EU programmes that are existing can be used to support the saami community especially in climate adaptation and regional development. The EU affirmed that it will commit to support the sustainable development of the Arctic, that would benefit the communities under the EU policy for the Arctic. and the inclusive dialogue. The discussions held by the EU in the dialogue will shape the EU’s future discussions in and around the Arctic, to ensure the EU remains a reliable partner for the Arctic. (“The EU Arctic Forum and Dialogues conclude with EU Commissioner Kadis’ visit to the Saami Parliament and policy recommendations from Arctic Youth and Saami - European Commission,” European Commission , 10 July 2025)
FRANCE
Defence spending to double to EUR 64 billion by 2027
On 14 July 2025, the BBC reported that French President Emmanuel Macron announced a significant increase in defence spending, warning that Europe faces its greatest threat since World War II due to complex geopolitics, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a speech to the armed forces, Macron proposed raising the defence budget by EUR 3.5 billion in 2026 and EUR three billion in 2027, aiming to double it from EUR 32 billion in 2017 to EUR 64 billion by 2027, three years ahead of the original plan, pending government approval. He said: “To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful,” citing global instability, including the US bombing of Iran, conflicts between India and Pakistan, and inconsistent US support for Ukraine. Macron also denounced Russia’s “imperialist policies.” Additionally, NATO’s new 5 per cent GDP defence spending target which was previously two per cent, the UK’s defence review announcement are a clear message to Moscow, states the Defence Secretary John Healey, and French army chief Thierry Burkhard’s claim that Russia perceives France as its main European adversary. France’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to outline the 2026 budget soon. (Victoria Burne, “Europe's freedom faces greatest threat since WW2, Macron says,” BBC, 14 July 2025)