Photo : Institute of War
War in Ukraine: Day 16
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
Increased airstrikes, military expansion to the west and failure in evacuation
On 11 March, the Ukraine Defense Ministry issued a statement making three observations. One is Russia’s shortage in manpower, hence its reaching prisoners of war to fight along with Russian forces in Rostov, a city in the south-eastern area. Second, violation of international law through civilian killing and spreading pro-Russian messages to twitch the minds of local citizens. Third, Russia’s attempts to install police in the occupied areas to administer and control.
On 11 March, while Kharkiv was being attacked, Russia launched a new set of attacks for the first time in Lutsk, in the north-west, Ivano-Frankivsk in the south-west and Dnipro in the central-eastern of Ukraine. The west part of Ukraine was considered to be safe points for people fleeing and with Russia striking in the west, the war is reaching its full escalation. Mayor of Lutsk confirmed the explosions near a kindergarden and an apartment building. Ukraine's State Emergency Services (SES) reported killings of many civilians and soldiers due to bombings and aerial assault. With continued gunfire taking place in the north-west and south-west cities, Ukraine issued a warning to for people to evacuate immediately from Krykhivtsi, Chukalivka, Opryshivtsi, Gorodok districts. Upon airstrikes in Chernihiv, a northern city of Ukraine, was cut off from water supply. The Ukrainian government hopes to establish 12 humanitarian corridors to evacuate people, but it is highly uncertain if they are under full operation without being destroyed by Russia.
On 11 March, President Zelensky responded to the Russian accusation on chemical weapons.He said that Ukraine will not prepare chemicals as weapons or use them as destruction weapon. He warned Russia on using such weapons on Ukraine. Zelensky said: “Have you decided to carry out 'de-chemicalisation' of Ukraine? Using ammonia? Using phosphorus? What else have you prepared for us? No chemical or any other weapons of mass destruction were developed on my land."
On 11 March, Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine was under attack by Russian airstrikes and weaponry fire, killing and injuring numerous civilians. According to reports from Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate, the nuclear facility in Kharkiv has lost the power connection and was under destruction through continued bombing by Russians. Later, Ukraine Air Force released a statement saying that Ukraine smashed 10 Russian warplanes and two huge armoury convoys known as Su-25 and Su-34 jets.
On 11 March, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) disclosed that a Canadian sniper, known for its deadly capacity to kill enemies from two miles distance, was bought by Ukraine to fight against Russia. CBC disclosed that more than 20,000 have volunteered to join Ukraine in fighting the war.
On 11 March, in the meet between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba, in Turkey, according to the remarks of French President Emmanuel Macron, there was still a possibility to achieve a ceasefire. The demands kept forward by Ukraine’s representative was a 24-hour ceasefire and a humanitarian corridor in Mariupol, the Russia did not accept both and the talks failed to reach ceasefire agreement. Russia demanded Ukraine to "denazified" meaning to disarm and give up on joining the EU/NATO. On the questions of attack on the hospital facility in Mariupol, the Russian Defence Ministry denied taking responsibility. It countered by saying it believed the site to be Ukrainian Military base and not a hospital.
On 11 March, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine reported that 80,000 people had been evacuated from cities around the capital city Kyiv and from Sumy, around 60,000 were evacuated. The government faced a challenge in vacating people from Izyum, a town located in eastern Ukraine.
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
On 11 March, Russia backed separatists group have claimed to have captured the city of Volnovakha located in the north of the port city Mariupol. According to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) armed forces: “A group of troops of the Donetsk People's Republic has liberated the city of Volnovakha. The settlements of Olginka, Veliko-Anadol and Zelenyi Gai have also been taken under control, upon advancing 6 kilometers.”
On 11 March, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office called out Meta as an “extremist organisation” and proposed its plans to ban its services in Russia. The move comes Meta modifies its policy to allow posts on violent speech against Russian forces. According to the office: “inciting hatred and animosity involving threats of violence.”
On 11 March, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, in his address at the Russian security council meeting urged volunteers to fight Russian backed groups in the war. He later approved the volunteers from the Middleeast to support Russia in eastern Ukraine. The involvement of Syrian government troops is predicted to be involved in the fighting for Russia; the inflow of Syrian soldiers is due to Russia’s previous help backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Putin said: “If you see that there are these people who want of their own accord, not for money, to come to help the people living in Donbas, then we need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone.” Besides, Putin indicated that the talks between the Ukraine and Russian officials and sanctions on Russia are seen as a positive development.
On 11 March, Russia’s Defense Ministry accepted the strikes launched on Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk; it claimed the use of “high-precision, long-range attacks,” to destroy military airfields in west cities of Ukraine.
On 11 March, Russia’s diplomatic office to the UN proposed for an emergency meeting to debate Ukraine’s production of biological weapons with the support of the US. Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky tweeted: “Russian Mission asked for a meeting of #SecurityCouncil for 11 March to discuss the military biological activities of the US on the territory of #Ukraine.” According to Chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov: “[the materials] clearly refute the US statement that only Ukrainian scientists work in the Pentagon biolabs in Ukraine without the intervention of the US biologists.”
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 March, the EU announced doubling its military support to Ukraine and pledged USD one billion in funds. The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said: “Everyone was completely aware that we have to increase our military support to Ukraine to increase the pressure on Russia.” On 10 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced to stop pumping money into the financial markets as it wants to deter the possibility of an exponential increase in inflation. The regulation would encourage higher interest rates which would counter the 5.8 per cent increase of inflation for February. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: “The Russia-Ukraine war will have a material impact on economic activity and inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international commerce and weaker confidence.”
Also, On 11 March, US Vice President Kamala Harris headed to Romania to discuss the growing refugee crisis in the region. Her visit came after Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministers met in Turkey to discuss the war diplomatically. On 10 March, she met with the refugees in Warsaw and discussed issues of the war with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Duda said: “aware that the problem is growing and that this problem is increasing…We have to somehow handle it, and we do not have the experience.”
On 11 March, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda at the EU leaders summit in Versailles said, there was a “flavour of disappointment” as the bloc did not fast track Ukraine’s request. He said: “wish Ukraine gets candidate status now. But it was not possible to get it today. But probably it will come back to this issue later on. Some countries have domestic agendas, opinion of society, and they have to care about it. But more could be done.”
On 11 March, the UK Ministry of Defence stated that it was doubtful that Putin achieved his pre-invasion plan of Ukraine. Three weeks into the war, the Ukrainian forces had mounted a strong resistance against the Russians. The Ministry of Defence’s intelligence report said: “Logistical issues that have hampered the Russian advance persist, as does strong Ukrainian resistance.”
On the same day, the US Senate passed a bill to fund USD 13.6 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine. The US also condemned reports of Moscow’s plan to seize and nationalize the assets and businesses that have stopped operating. The White House Press secretary Jen Psaki said: “It will compound the clear message to the global business community that Russia is not a safe place to invest and do business.” However, a spokesperson for Coca-Cola said: “We have had no indications from Russian authorities that they intend to nationalise our assets.”
On 10 March, the UK government acted against the seven Russian oligarchs and implemented sanctions against them in response to Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Among the oligarchs, Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich was also sanctioned. The UK government found him to have received preferential treatment from Kremlin, and his business links were destabilising Ukraine. As reported by The Guardian: “Abramovich’s assets have been frozen, and he will be prohibited from making any transactions in the UK, as well as being subject to a travel ban.”
On 10 March, President Sauli Niinisto said Finland contemplated joining the NATO alliance. Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia and decided to review its security policy to join NATO. However, a recent poll found that more than 53 per cent of Finns now want to join NATO; this was a rise from merely 19 per cent that happened five years ago.
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
WHO: On 11 March, the WHO advised Ukraine to destroy high-threat pathogens at the country’s public health laboratories. The advisory came as the agency wanted to deter “any potential spills.” Reuters reported: “Biosecurity experts say Russia’s movement of troops into Ukraine and bombardment of its cities have raised the risk of an escape of disease-causing pathogens, should any of those facilities be damaged.”
UNHCR: UN’s High Commissioner for refugees Filippo Grandi reported that the number of refugees from Ukraine had reached 2.5 million. The UNHCR speculates that two million people were internally displaced within Ukraine. Furthermore, the German interior ministry said that more than 109,000 refugees had been registered in the country. In addition, Warsaw reported the arrival of 300,000 refugees in the country.
ECONOMY: On 11 March, global investors shifted their investments from equities and bonds to assets of gold and cash. The rapid change came as Russia continued its invasion, and investors tried to seek shelter in the safer havens of gold and cash.
FACEBOOK: On 10 March, Meta’s platform of Facebook and Instagram said, a few counties will be allowed to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers. The social media giant has temporarily approved posts that even call for the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Meta spokesperson said: “As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech such as ‘death to the Russian invaders.”
ASIA: On 11 March, the BBC released a report that talked about the role of Asia in imposing and up-keeping the sanctions on Russia. China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Laos, and Mongolia did not vote on the UN’s resolution in demanding Russia to end its military operations in Ukraine. On the other hand, allies of the West, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Australia have imposed sanctions and blocked a few Russian banks from SWIFT payment systems. However, the countries who have sided with the west only make up to eight per cent of Russia’s global trade, while the countries that abstained made up 18 per cent.
MNCs: On 11 March, Goldman Sachs and Western Union announced their withdrawal from Russia. Goldman Sachs’s pull-out would be the first Wall Street Bank to withdraw from the country, while Western Union also said it would suspend its operations in Belarus and Russia. The sanctions imposed on the country have made Western financial institutions tough to go on with their work.
References:
“BBC live,” BBC, 11 March 2022
“Documents confirm US participation in studies in Ukraine's bio labs — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 10 March 2022
“DPR troops liberate Volnovakha,” TASS, 11 March 2022
Niko Vorobyov, “Finland mulls joining NATO after Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Al Jazeera, 11 March 2022
Jennifer Rigby and Jonathan Landay, “Exclusive: WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy pathogens in health labs to prevent disease spread,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Franceso Canepa and Balazs Koranyi, “ECB to turn off money taps at Ukraine 'watershed' moment,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
“European stocks suffer record outflows on Ukraine war - BoFA,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Munsif Vengattil and Elizabeth Culliford, “EXCLUSIVE Facebook allows Ukraine war posts urging violence against invading Russians, Putin,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Aubrey Allegretti Jasper Jolly and Peter Walker, “UK freezes assets of seven Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich,” The Guardian, 10 March 2022
Daniel Boffey, Miranda Bryant and Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war latest news,” The Guardian, 11 March 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Lithuanian president says 'flavour of disappointment' over EU not fast tracking Ukraine's membership,” The Guardian, 11 March 2022
Nandita Bose, “VP Harris heads to Romania as Ukraine invasion fuels refugee crisis,” Reuters, 11 March 2022
Mariko Oi, “War in Ukraine: How Asian economies are divided over Russia sanctions,” BBC, 11 March 2022
“Goldman Sachs and Western Union pull out of Russia,” BBC, 11 March 2022
James Lee, “Putin humiliated as MoD says 'highly unlikely' Russia has achieved pre-invasion plan,” Express, 11 March 2022
Annabelle Liang, “War in Ukraine: US condemns reports Russia may seize firms' assets,” BBC, 11 March 2022
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews
BELARUS
Interior Affairs Ministry classifies Deutsche Welle content as “extremist”
On 09 March, Belarus’ Internal Affairs Ministry released a statement classifying information provided by Deutsche Welle and Telegram as ‘extremist’. The statement read: “The Minsk Central District Court, based on material from the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, has classified the information products of the Telegram channel and the DW Belarus chat as extremist material.” The Deutsche Welle Director General Peter Limbourg condemned the country’s attempt to silence independent opinion and said: “The blocking of our websites in Belarus in October 2021 was already an unbelievable encroachment on press freedom. The recent announcement of the criminalization of the DW logo proves how nervous the regime there is.” Even the logo of the media house has been classified as extremist. (“Belarus classifies Deutsche Welle as ′extremist′,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2022)
REGIONAL
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Germany’s Baerbock meets with Foreign Minister Turkovic
On 10 March, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock addressed a news conference with her Bosnian counterpart Bisera Turkovic in Sarajevo. Her visit marks efforts to bring the country into the EU’s purview following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Baerbock said: “We want to live together in the European house.” Baerbock, who is on a three–day trip to the region, will also visit Kosovo, Serbia and Moldova. top diplomat says the Ukraine conflict shows the importance of ties between the EU and the Western Balkans. Bosnia is seeking to join the EU, but accession negotiations have not begun. Meanwhile, Bosnia has sought membership in the bloc. Turkovic pushed for the accession process to be quickened as she said: “We believe that this would be a strong contribution to peace in Bosnia ... and in Europe.” (“Germany calls for closer EU-Bosnia ties amid war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 10 March 2022)
Estonia: UK’s Sir Keir meets with Defense Minister Laanet
On 10 March, UK’s Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer met with Estonia’s Defense Minister Kalle Laanet. During the trip, Sir Keir met with NATO troops stationed in the country while expressing that the Labour party stood “steadfast in solidarity with Ukraine". His visit marks 15 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is aimed at addressing the Army’s claims that a few soldiers have moved on to fight in Ukraine which is against orders given to them. Sir Keir along with the shadow Defense Secretary John Healey met Colonel Dai Bevan; the Colonel leads NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in Estonia. Sir Keir is expected to return to Tallinn and address MPs at the country’s Parliament. Commenting on the threat of a nuclear war, Sir Keir mentioned the importance of ignoring "hypotheticals". (“Ukraine war: Starmer meets Nato troops on Estonia visit,” BBC, 10 March 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Turkey: Biden holds phone conversation with Erdogan
On 10 March, US President Joe Biden held a phone call with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to a statement released by Erdogan’s office, the President called on Biden to remove the “unjust” sanctions imposed on the country’s defense industry. The US had imposed sanctions on five of Turkey’s officials after Turkey bought Russian missile defense systems. Meanwhile, a White House statement failed to address any specifics regarding the talk on sanctions while it stated that the two leaders “discussed opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties”. Talks also focused on “Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine”. Additionally, Biden appreciated Turkey’s support to bring about a “diplomatic resolution to the conflict”. (Lauren Aratani, “US conducting 'legal review' of possible Russian war crimes in Ukraine – as it happened,” The Guardian, 10 March 2022)