Photo : CSIS Missile Defense Project
War in Ukraine: Day 31 & 32
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan
War on the ground:
President Zelensky's everyday address and cruise missile strike in Lviv
Zelensky’s comments
On 26 Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian troops had launched powerful attacks on Russia as a push for peace talks. He said: “By restraining Russia's actions, our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: talk is necessary. Meaningful. Urgent. Fair. For the sake of the result, not for the sake of the delay.”
On 27 March, Zelensky in his daily address demanded the West increase its military supply, stating only one per cent of NATO tanks and aircrafts had been given to Ukraine so far. He said: “What is Nato doing? Is it being run by Russia? What are they waiting for? It's been 31 days. We are only asking for 1% of what Nato has, nothing more.”
Ukraine Military advance
On 26 March, Ukraine Defense Ministry claimed to have killed Russian Lieutenant-General Yakov Rezantsev in a strike near Chornobaivka airbase in Kherson. So far Russia has claimed the death of only one General.
On 27 March, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence reported on Russia’s plan to split Ukraine into North Korea and South Korea, as it failed in taking over Ukraine. It also disclosed launching guerrilla warfare in the cities occupied by Russia. Ukraine's military intelligence Chief issued a warning on Russia’s efforts to bring the “Korean scenario” and said that Putin’s priority remains the east and south of Ukraine on a larger scale.
Continuing attacks and evacuation
On 26 March, BBC reported on the possibility of attacks on the arc of town surrounding Kyiv. Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel which lies around the capital city, Irpin seems to have been shelled by Russia, with only ruins left. The Russian strategy was observed to be targeting Kyiv to replace Zelensky’s government. Therefore, the city of Irpic has been at the front of Russian attacks and battle troops.
On 26 March, the Governor of the Lviv region, Maksym Kozytskyi reported the injury of five people due to the high-precision Onyx cruise missile strike on a fuel storage facility in Lviv. Apart from these Russian forces were seen to be attacking the nuclear research facility in Kharkiv and the workers at Chernobyl's nuclear power plant were reported to be taken over by the Russians.
Other developments
On 27 March, Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi commented on the country’s export of grain. He said that as the war advanced, the capacity to export grains was worsening day by day. He added: “The impact (on global markets) is direct, dramatic and large. And it continues. Every day the situation will become more and more difficult.”
On 27 March, upon separatist leader in the Luhansk People’s Republic called out for a referendum on allowing Russia to join. Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by saying any such fake referendums conducted in part of Ukraine to be considered “null and void.” It warned that: “Instead, Russia will facе an even stronger international response, further deepening its isolation.”
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Putin’s new law
On 26 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin passed a law recognising the individuals who took part in special military operations in Ukraine as “Combat veterans.” The law was assumed by the State Duma and accepted by Federation Council. The recognition meant that the participants in the special operation will be put under social protection and will be eligible for additional payments, tax benefits and medical care
Russian Defense Ministry claims
On 26 March, Russian Defense Ministry declared the end of the first phase of the war as Biden makes his visit to Poland. It said that its aims to destroy Ukraine’s navy, air force and target to capture Kyiv was stalled. Russian officials said that Russia would hence focus its military on “complete liberation” of eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region. General Staff's main operations administration Head, Sergei Rudskoy said: “The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been carried out. The combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces have been substantially reduced, which allows us to concentrate our main efforts on achieving the main goal: the liberation of Donbas.”
On 26 March, Russia claimed that 93 per cent of the Donbas region of Luhansk has been brought under the control of a separatists group along with 54 per cent of Donetsk. Russian Defense Ministry, Major General Igor Konashenkov claimed on the attack on fuel base in Nikolaev region of Ukraine. he said: “The Onyx high-precision cruise missile destroyed a fuel base in the Nikolaev region, used to supply a grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of Ukraine with fuel.” Apart from this the Russian forces also claimed on disabling of 117 Ukrainian military facilities, an S-300 missile system, nine warehouses that stored ammunition and “92 stronghold Ukrainian forces units.”
Other developments
On 26 March, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia might nationalise the property of those registered in the US, the EU and other countries listed as unfriendly. The comments come as Russia reported the arrest of the assets of Russian individuals living abroad. He said: “With arrest of assets of foreigners and foreign companies in Russia based on country principle. And maybe, with nationalization of property of people registered in unfriendly jurisdictions. Like the EU, EU member states and a number of singing-along states of the Anglo-Saxon world that will take part in this.”
On 27 March, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky through his telegram announced the next round of talks with Ukraine, which has been scheduled to take place in virtual format. He posted: “Another round of talks with Ukraine in the videoconference format was held today. As a result, a decision was made to meet offline on March 29-30.”
On 27 March, Russia’s regulator of state media warned a Russian media Meduza on an interview with President Zelensky. In the warning, it stated: “an investigation has been started in order to identify the level of responsibility and what response will be taken.” Russia in the previous week passed a new law banning Russian media from casting on the war in Ukraine and imposed an imprisonment charge of 15 years for spreading fake news.
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 27 March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken talked about the US’ strategy and clarified that Washington was not working on a regime change for Russia. His comments clarified President Joe Biden’s statement that Putin “cannot remain in power.” Blinken said: “I think the president, the White House, made the point last night that, quite simply, President Putin cannot be empowered to wage war or engage in aggression against Ukraine or anyone else.”
On 26 March, Biden and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in central Warsaw. Biden and Austin extended their support to Ukraine and called on the world to prepare for a “long fight ahead.” Biden further stated: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”
The UK
On 27 March, according to a report by the UK’s Defense Ministry, the Russian forces were encircling the city of Kyiv. The briefing mentioned: “advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south.” The report further discussed the Ukrainian military launching counterattacks to hamper Russian reorganization efforts.
On the same day, UK’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss mentioned that the UK would lift sanctions if Russia agreed to a complete cease-fire and withdrew its troops from Ukraine. She stated that Russia was serious about negations, but less progress was made recently and further added: “That’s why... we need to double down on sanctions,”
On 26 March, The UK’s intelligence released a report from the UK’s Defense Ministry, which warned that Russia would continue its use of heavy firepower in urban areas. The report mentioned that this would come “at the cost of further civilian casualties.” The UK announced that it would fund GBP two million in food aid to Ukraine on the same day. Humanitarian adviser to the Foreign Office Alice Hooper said: “The need on the ground in Ukraine is clear, with so many people in encircled areas trapped in basements without access to food or water.”
Germany
On 27 March, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated his support to Ukraine and said that Berlin was doing everything it could for Kyiv. He further mentioned that he was doing everything possible in their power and even supplied weapons to Ukraine. On the same day, Germany sold 5,100 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Germany’s DPA news agency reported: “The weapons are shoulder-launched RGW90 HH “Matador,” manufactured by “Dynamit Nobel Defense.”
On the same day, Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier appealed for a united and humane stance in the face of Russia’s aggression. At the Berlin Philharmonic concert for Ukraine, he said: “We must not permit [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s hatred to become a hatred dividing peoples and individuals, and it must not be allowed to divide our society either.”
Turkey
On 27 March, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had spoken to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on call and discussed an immediate cease-fire and a peace agreement. Additionally, he confirmed that Russia and Ukraine would soon meet in Istanbul and continue their negotiations. Later, on the same day, Turkey confirmed that talks between the two countries would happen on 28 March. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said: “Today, during another round of video negotiations, it was decided to hold the next in-person round of the two delegations in Turkey on March 28-30.”
Turkey also stated the need to continue talks with Russia, and Turkey’s Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin mentioned that the international community must continue their talk to bring a halt to the war. He further said: “If everybody burns bridges with Russia, then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day...Ukrainians need to be supported by every means possible to defend themselves.”
France
On 27 March, France’s President Emmanuel Macron warned about a possible verbal escalation after US President Joe Biden called Putin a “Butcher.” Macron said he would never have used those words and distanced himself from Biden’s comments. On the other hand, Macron stressed the need to de-escalate, and he said: “achieving first a cease-fire and then the total withdrawal of [Russian] troops by diplomatic means. If we want to do that, we cannot escalate either in words or actions.”
On the same day, France’s housing Minister Emmanuelle Wargon mentioned that around 30,000 people fleeing the war had arrived in France. She mentioned that France was prepared to receive around 100,000 people. However, half of them have since traveled to Spain. Additionally, she talked about the French government granting them EU stay permits that would allow the children to enroll in schools and permit them to work in the country.
Finland
On 26 March, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto expressed his concerns about his country being targeted by Russia if it applied for NATO membership. Earlier, Finns were not inclined to join NATO. However, since the war broke out, most of them wanted Finland to be a part of NATO. Niinisto said that joining the military alliance would “gain a preventive effect” on Finland.
Hungary
On 26 March, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sought to assert his country’s neutrality in the war in Ukraine. Orban said: “The answer to the question of which side Hungary is on is that Hungary is on Hungary’s side.” His comments came as a response to the EU leaders and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeals to Orban to take a clear stance rather than a neutral one. Zelenskyy had stated: “I want to stop here and be honest, once and for all. You have to decide for yourself who you are with.”
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
The Oscars
On 27 March, at the Academy Awards ceremony held in Los Angeles, many attendees expressed their support for Ukraine by going silent for 30 seconds. Actress Mila Kunis, who was also born in Ukraine at the Oscars, said: “We’d like to have a moment of silence to show our support for the people of Ukraine currently facing invasion, conflict and prejudice within their own borders.” Apart from her attendees also wore blue ribbons that read #WithRefugees to show their solidarity with the refugees that had fled Ukraine since Putin invaded.
Japan
On 26 March, Japan and the US condemned Russia for its nuclear weapons threat. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said: “the horrors of nuclear weapons must never be repeated.” His comments came as Moscow had mentioned that it would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if Russia were to face an existential threat.
Human Rights Watch
On 25 March, the Human Rights Watch released a report on the Ukrainian refugees reaching Slovakia. The report mentioned how in comparison to Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, Slovakia’s border and customs police processed and registered Ukrainian refugees faster. The report further stated how Slovak firefighters and soldiers assisted the injured and helped older refugees in wheelchairs to get processed and accommodated. The coordination and the cooperation of the Slovaks on the ground were also highlighted in the report.
Revival of Coal?
On 25 March, an article by Al Jazeera mentioned how due to the war, the demand for coal had exponentially increased. The global energy market has been gravely impacted because of Russia invading Ukraine and had shadowed last year’s COP26 targets and promises. Climate and Energy Policy Adviser at climate change think-tank Pieter de Pous said: “Countries that were doing this properly, avoiding gas as a bridge fuel option, are in a better situation than those who really were betting on gas to get out of coal.”
References:
“Ukraine warns Russia is trying to split country in two — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 27 March 2022
“Live updates: Support for Ukraine shown at Oscars,” The Associated Press, 28 March 2022
“Ukraine: Russian strikes wound several in Lviv — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 26 March 2022
“Ukraine war: Liz Truss says Russia sanctions should end only after withdrawal,” BBC, 27 March 2022
Helen Livingstone, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 32 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 March 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 31 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 March 2022
Justin Spike, “Hungary’s Orban criticized for ‘neutrality’ in Ukraine war,” The Seattle Times, 26 March 2022
Louis Charbonneau, “Escaping the Bloodshed: Refugees Reach Slovakia After Fleeing Ukraine War,” Human Rights Watch, 26 March 2022
Ruairi Casey, “Will Ukraine war revitalise coal – world’s dirtiest fossil fuel?,” Al Jazeera, 25 March 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 32,” Al Jazeera, 27 March 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 31,” Al Jazeera, 26 March 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
FRANCE
Concerns over anti-Islam rhetoric in election campaigns
On 27 March, the Rector of the Great Mosque of Paris, Chems-Eddine Hafiz, expressed concerns over Anti-Islam rhetoric in election campaigns. Rival candidates of incumbent President Emmanuel Marcon have turned their attention to Islam and immigration. Eric Zemmour, Valérie Pécresse, and Marine Le Pen, the far-right contenders, have been inciting racial hatred, calling to renounce Islamic practices, and frequently referring to the "Great Replacement Theory." They claim that the local French population could be replaced by immigrants, making France a majority Muslim country. Hafiz stated: "For several years now, at every election in France, certain candidates have spoken of the 'problem' of Islam, linking Islam to immigration or terrorism." He is afraid of the possible increase in anti-Islam sentiments post-election. (Angelique Chrisafis, "Anti-Islam rhetoric in French election risks' spiral of hatred', says Paris mosque rector," The Guardian, 24 March 2022)
MALTA
Labour party claims to win national elections
On 27 March, Prime Minister Robert Abela claimed victory in general elections, securing a third consecutive term for the Labour party. If confirmed, Abela would be serving his first electoral mandate after succeeding Joseph Muscat, who stepped down in January 2020 during a government crisis triggered by the death of journalist Daphne Galizia. Abela assures humility by stating: "Humility will characterize this government, I will insist on humility from those chosen to work within it, and I will lead by example." He was credited for sustaining unemployment at a historic low, keeping energy costs constant despite rising global prices, and increasing pensions regularly. (Christopher Scicluna, "Malta's prime minister promises humility as Labour claims election victory," Reuters, 27 March 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Prince William responds to Caribbean criticisms
On 27 March, Prince William responded to criticisms over his eight-day tour to the Caribbean amid protests for UK's reparations and an apology for slavery. William stated: "I know that this tour has brought into even sharper focus questions about the past and the future. In Belize, Jamaica, and the Bahamas, that future is for the people to decide upon." He further stated that he was committed to serving and supporting the people by using "the platform" with which they are privileged. International media houses have criticized some of his actions during the tour, such as shaking hands with Jamaican children through wire fences and standing on an open-top vehicle to witness a military parade, which resembled Queen Elizabeth back in the 1950s. ("Prince William says he wants to serve after Caribbean criticism," Reuters, 27 March 2022)
Canada to displace Russian oil supply
On 27 March, Canada committed to supplying energy sources to displace Russian oil and gas for European countries. Canada's Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson assured us that they could provide an increased supply of oil, gas, and uranium to stabilize the global energy crisis. They expect to produce an additional 200,000 barrels of oil and 100,000 barrels of natural gas. Wilkinson emphasized the use of nuclear energy and announced the readiness to export uranium. Canada's assurances came after the meeting of the world's energy ministers at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris held on 24 March. A senior oil analyst at the consultancy Rystad Energy stated that the impact of Canada's extra supplies "will be relatively limited given the regionality of Canadian crude, which will likely stay in the North American market." (Jonathan Josephs, "Canada pledges to help countries stop using Russian oil," BBC, 27 March 2022)