Photo : Tyler Hicks-The New York Times
IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
Ukraine faces an ammunition shortage as the battle for the Donbas rages
On 10 June, a report by the Washington Post mentioned the rising concerns of Ukraine losing on the battlefield due to the acute shortage of ammunition. While Russia, on the other hand, has been increasing its firepower against Ukraine and has been outgunning Kyiv’s forces. According to Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence, Vadym Skibitsky, Russia was firing about 60,000 artillery shells and rockets daily. While Ukraine could only muster 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day with almost depleted stocks.
Four reasons for an ammunition shortage in Ukraine
First, absorbing the West’s military equipment. Ukraine’s army has been facing shortcomings in absorbing the military supplies from the West, NATO, and the EU as they have not used them in their training exercises. For example, NATO’s supplies of 155-millimetre artillery shells have reached Kyiv, but the army faces logistical challenges in taking them to the frontline and firing the munitions. Ukrainian forces have received training to use the advanced military supplies, but the army does face issues while maintaining them.
Second, incompatibility issues. Ukraine has been dependent on Soviet weapons since the inception of the war. This made it difficult for the West to acquire Soviet-related ammunition to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, as the Warsaw Pact and NATO countries used different calibers of ammunition. Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, stated: “Relying solely on Soviet weapons was definitely a losing strategy.”
Third, a delay in supplies. Even with the West, NATO, and the EU assuring weapons supply to Ukraine, the weapon system has been arriving too slowly to keep up with the war. Due to this delay in supplies, Ukraine’s armies are facing more casualties in comparison to the initial days of the war. For example, the US-made HIMARS multiple-rocket launcher systems are on their way to Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian forces would have to first be trained to use them and thus, delaying its active deployment by a few weeks.
Fourth, storing ammunition. The storage of ammunition, tanks, and other military supplies has not been carried out efficiently as Moscow has been targeting the incoming supplies from the West by airstrikes. Additionally, since the Ukrainian army is dependent on Soviet-era ammunition, if these supplies are not stored correctly, there is a higher chance of them turning into duds. The forces complained that the Czech-supplied rockets were faulty as they successfully fired only three out of 40 rounds.
What lies ahead?
The shortage in ammunition has shadowed Ukraine’s plans to take back the East. The shortcomings have also demoralized the army as the Ukrainian forces were being intimidated by Russia’s 24/7 shillings and artillery superiority. Knowing about Ukraine’s disadvantages, Russia has shifted its tactics to using close air support and dismounted infantry to tackle the Ukrainian forces more effectively. Russia has been able to regenerate its army as it refurbished its units, deployed new forces, and increased the age of the reserve force to enlist more men. Thus, the battle of Sievierodonetsk would be a turning point for both Russia and Ukraine.
References:
“Ukraine Reports Ammunition Shortage,” Voice of America, 11 June 2022
Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Andrew E. Kramer and Natalia Yermak, “Shortage of Artillery Ammunition Saps Ukrainian Frontline Morale” The New York Times, 10 June 2022
Siobhan O Grady, Liz sly and Levgeniia Sivorka, “Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield,” The Washington Post, 10 June 2022
Alex Gatopoulos, “The weapons being sent to Ukraine and why they may not be enough,” Al Jazeera, 17 April 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 108 & 109
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 11 June the Ukraine forces reported on the continued shelling and damage incurred in the power lines of Donetsk region. It found that many cities including, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Bakhmut were facing power outage and “netblocks.” It reported a cut in the internet connectivity in Donetsk.
On 11 June, TASS Russian news agency reported that Russia has started providing passports to Ukraine people living in the Kherson and Melitopol to bring the cities under its control. Till now two dozen of Russian passports have been provided in Kherson and 30 in Melitopol. On this, the Ukraine authority and foreign ministry have called it a “flagrant violation of national sovereignty.” At the same, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency found that it had tracked down the passport forms from cities after Russia’s withdrawal. These documents were not in existence from 1990 and have been brought back from blueprints by Russia during the war as per the Ukraine intelligence.
On 12 June, the regional governor said that the Russian forces had launched four missiles at the military capacity located in Chortkiv, in western Ukraine, which injured 22 people. The governor of Luhansk said that the link between Ukraine and Sievierodonetsk can be cut down which might bring out the limitations of Ukraine's capacity. He also remarked on how Ukraine has been facing heavy causalities each day.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
On 12 June Russia’s defence ministry claimed that it had launched a missile strike on the military capacity of Ukraine destroying both the US and the UK's anti-tank and anti-missile systems. The for long-range weapons were recently doubled by the West. It also confirmed on destroying a “portable antiaircraft system and artillery shells.”
Russia celebrated 12 June as the day for declaring sovereignty and declaration of democratic reform in 1990. It remarked the day with fireworks, flags, and lights on iconic buildings. Apart from the celebrations, Russia also experienced protests from on its invading Ukraine. The protestors held a slogan stating “This is not our day,” outside the Russian army headquarters.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 June, the UK defence ministry reported that most of the Russian attacks had been focused in the east where Ukraine forces have out-stocked weapons. It observed that upon Russia’s announcement of building the bridge between Crimea, it began issuing passports to Ukraine people and Ukraine has been constantly asking not to take the passports under the terms of employment or any such needs. The ministry also found that although Russia’s precision missiles count had reduced it was possible for it to switch to more powerful weapon systems which are more destructive in nature.
On 11 June, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen met president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The visit focused on Ukraine’s application to the EU and evaluating the areas for joint cooperation, reconstruction, and progress of Ukraine in Europe.
In the analysis statement issued by the Institute for the Study of War: “Consistent with previous reports that Russian forced mobilization efforts are self-destructive and may result in mounting discontent and declining morale and discipline.”
On 11 June, Lithuania announced the opening of a cultural center for internally displaced Ukrainians. Till now it has welcomed more than 50,000 Ukrainians who have left Ukraine in war. Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “so as long as a regime that intends to wage wars outside Russian territory is in place, the countries surrounding it are in danger.”
On 12 June, the Sweden military and the US Marines completed the drill in the Baltic Sea which is an important area for Sweden Island. According to the commander of Sweden’s Gotland regiment, colonel Magnus Frykvall: “A lot of us thought that there wouldn’t be a need to defend Gotland after Soviet collapse. This has been put in a totally new point of view since the war in Ukraine in 2014, and it was even more clear to us with the current invasion.” The drill was held due to the growing fear of Russian aggression and was part of the annual exercise held between the US and Sweden with 26 warplanes and 2400 marines and sailors. It was called as Baltic operations involving Swedish troops and marines.
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 11 June, the IAEA director-general, Rafael Mariano Grossi reported on the successful restoration of data between the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in the south and the International Atomic Energy Agency in Ukraine. The data transfer which was cut down by Russia for the past three months was not back on track.
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un stated his support for Russia’s president Putin and the war in Ukraine. It is seen as a step further compared to other friendly states of Russia. North Korea is also among the states which abstained from voting on the UN resolution against Russia.
On 12 June, the UN commission inspected the Kyiv region to look into the war crimes committed by Russia. It has vowed to implement its first mission in Ukraine by June 16.
References
“BBC Live Reporting,” BBC, 12 June 2022
“Ukraine: As It's Happening,” The Moscow Times, 12 June 2022
“What Happened on Day 108 of the War in Ukraine,” The New York Times, 11 June 2022
“What Happened on Day 109 of the War in Ukraine,” The New York Times, 12 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
FRANCE
Melenchon poses tough competition to Macron in the parliamentary elections
On 12 June, president Emmanuel Macron faces a tough struggle to win an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections after a close call with Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-green alliance- New Ecologic and Social Peoples Union (NUPES). The projections placed the NUPES bloc of Melenchon and Macron's Ensemble! Coalition neck-and-neck in the first round, with 25.61 percent and 25.8 percent, respectively. The voter turnout for the election was a historic low of 47.5 percent. (Paul Kirby, “French election: Left surge threatens Macron majority in France,” BBC, 13 June 2022)
ITALY
Right-wing parties trying to be the future of the Italian parliament
On 12 June, Italy held its local elections which saw right-wing mayoral candidates likely to be victorious in major cities across the country. The elections are said to be a precursor to next year's parliamentary elections which might give the right-wing coalition, comprising the center-right Forza Italia and the far-right League and Brothers of Italy, the opportunity to convert the lead in the polls to actual votes with more than forty per cent of the Italian voters supporting them. 9 million eligible Italians across 26 provincial and regional capital voted in the local elections. Right-wing candidates are set to win in many of the cities like Genoa and Palermo whereas, in cities like Verona and Catanzaro, they performed poorly due to failure to agree on a common candidate. (Hannah Roberts, “Right-wing candidates set to make gains in local Italian elections: Exit polls,” POLITICO, 13 June 2022)
REGIONAL
Chancellor Scholz called on Bulgaria to let Northern Macedonia into the EU
On 11 June, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz exhorted Bulgaria to revoke its veto on North Macedonia's entry into the European Union. The talks for the EU ascension of Northern Macedonia were halted by Bulgaria due to the history of conflict between both nations. Scholz visited Sofia and Skopje to meet with both nations' respective leaders. Germany's support of the Western Balkan nation's ascension to the EU would boost Northern Macedonia's chance. Member states of the EU are willing to allow Western Balkans into the organisation. According to Scholz, regional disputes are not insurmountable and can be resolved if the parties are brought together. Six Western Balkan states consisting of Northern Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo are at different stages of membership talks with the EU. (“Scholz urges action over North Macedonia EU bid,” Deutsche Welle, 11 June 2022)
New legislation on Northern Ireland protocol condemned for breaking international law
On 12 June, the Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis reiterated that the amendments made in post-Brexit trade arrangements will not break international law. The statement came following the head of Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party, Mary Lou McDonald who claims the revisions would breach international law. The amendment, which is set to take effect from 13 May, will have an impact on the existing Northern Ireland protocol, which was negotiated by the EU and the Boris administration post-Brexit. The agreement permits the Republic of Ireland to keep a de facto open border with the UK's Northern Ireland. One of the measures calls for customs inspections on products arriving from England, Scotland, and Wales in order to keep them out of the EU's single market. The majority of the inspections are likely to be withdrawn in London. (“ Sinn Fein leader: UK about to break international law,” Deutsche Welle, 12 June 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Canberra to pay a settlement for breach of contract with Paris
On 12 June, Australia agreed to pay France's Naval Group EUR 555 million in compensation for breaking a submarine contract with Paris. In 2021, Canberra cancelled its 2016 agreement with France’s Naval Group to build a fleet of conventional submarines, this provoked anger and diplomatic issues in Paris. Canberra instead chose to build eight nuclear-powered submarines with the US and UK technology following its trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The prime minister of Australia, Antony Albanese stated that the broken french contract will have cost the country EUR 2.28 billion. (“Aukus: Australia to pay €555m settlement to French firm,” BBC, 12 June 2022)
New bridge opened between Russia and China
On 10 June, Russia and China inaugurated the new cross-border bridge to promote trade and commerce between the two countries. The bridge connecting the city of Blagoveshchensk in Russia to the city of Heihe in China across the Amur river is over one kilometer long and cost 19 billion roubles. The bridge will shorten the travel distance of goods from China to western Russia by 1,500 kilometers and the vehicles will be tolled 8,700 roubles. (“Fanfare and fireworks to open Russia-China border bridge,” BBC, 11 June 2022)
Finland to send arms to Ukraine in the midst of NATO ambitions
On 10 June, Finland announced that it would provide more defense aid to Ukraine in the middle of its aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Finland's defense minister Antti Kaikkonen said that Finland would send the equipment that Ukraine and its army need. Finland and Sweden decided to openly support Ukraine after Russia threatened them against their application for membership in NATO and violated their airspace. Finland is ready to contribute to the aid of Ukraine and the security of the alliance thereby showing its commitment to the principles of NATO. This might fasten the process of Finland's membership in NATO. Although their membership hasn't been finalized, the US has shown its full support for Finland's and Sweden's admission into NATO as well as being watchful of any security threats in both countries. If any threat to the security of Finland and Sweden may arise, the US will work with the countries to deal with them. (“Finland to send more military equipment amid NATO ambitions,” HelsinkiTimes, 12 June 2022)