Daily Focus
By Rishka Yadav

Protests in Serbia: Rejecting Kosovo's independence 
On 26 May, a large gathering took place in the center of Belgrade, with tens of thousands supporting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. A rally was held to counter anti-government protests after two mass shootings that claimed 18 lives. This was the third protest this month. Speakers at the "Serbia of Hope" rally included Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. The rally featured Serbian flags and expressions of support for Vucic. Supporters attended from various regions, endorsing Vucic's pursuit of peace in Serbia. The President of the Bosnian Serb Republic told the crowd: "They attack us because we want peace in Ukraine, they attack us because we believe in family values and because we refuse to be told what to do. Serbia led by Vucic we trust and we support. Long live Serbia, long live Republika Srpska, long live Russia."

Following are the three issues:
First, the outrage over the pro-government media’s promotion of violence. The May 23 protests were triggered by public outrage over the promotion of violence in pro-government media and a perceived lack of security. There is a demand for the resignation of officials, revocation of licenses for TV channels airing violent content and fake news, and increased accountability and transparency in the security sector and judiciary. The protests reflect a broader call for change and reform in Serbian society. It coincides with the protests against the government that erupted after two mass shootings in early May 2023. The protesters have demanded the resignation of several officials and the withdrawal of licenses for some TV channels.

Second, the dispute with Kosovo over its independence and sovereignty. The Serbs living in the northern region of Kosovo, who identify with Belgrade as their capital, do not accept Kosovo's declaration of independence. Additionally, they are unwilling to work with the newly-elected ethnic Albanian mayor. The UK, France, Italy, Germany, and the US have jointly criticized Kosovo's decision to forcefully access municipal buildings in northern Kosovo. The countries said in a joint statement posted on the British government's website "We condemn Kosovo's decision to force access to municipal buildings in northern Kosovo despite our call for restraint. We call on Kosovo's authorities to immediately step back and de-escalate, and to closely coordinate with EULEX (the EU mission) and KFOR (NATO's mission in Kosovo." Concerns are raised about Serbia's heightened readiness of its armed forces at the border. Following clashes between protesters and police in a mostly Serb town in Kosovo, Serbian President Vucic has placed the army on full combat alert. Tear gas was used to disperse protesters attempting to block an ethnic Albanian mayor from entering office. The chief of staff of Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani, Blerim Vela, accused "illegal and criminal structures" in Serbia of escalating tensions. US Senator Chris Murphy expressed surprise at the incident and urged an immediate end to the provocation. The protests followed heavily boycotted local elections, with a turnout of only 3.47 per cent. 
 
Third, it reflects the discontent of some Serbs with the government. Over the past few years, there has been an increase in dissatisfaction with the government led by President Aleksandar Vucic, due to concerns about his accumulation of power, media censorship, corruption, and the erosion of democratic values. Protests and boycotts against Vucic's rule have been met with repression and intimidation. His stance on Kosovo has also drawn criticism due to his contradictory statements, expressing willingness to compromise while maintaining nationalist rhetoric. Calls were made for Vucic and certain ministers to resign, prompting the ruling elite to organize the rally. Vucic announced his resignation as party leader and emphasized his role as President of all citizens.

References
“Serbia sends army to Kosovo border as protest escalates,” Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2023
“Serbia president puts military on combat alert, orders army to move closer to Kosovo border,” Reuters, 26 May 2023
“UK, France, Italy, Germany and U.S. condemn Kosovo violence,” Reuters, 27 May 2023
“Tens of thousands gather in Serbia in Vucic's show of power,” Reuters, 27 May 2023

War in Ukraine: Day 457
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 26 May, a medical clinic in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hit by a Russian missile, resulting in two deaths and over 30 injuries. The attack occurred after intense shelling across central Ukraine. The strike hit Dnipropetrovsk City hospital  and a veterinary clinic, causing fires and extensive damage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack as a "pure atrocity." In the overnight attack, Ukraine reported shooting down 17 missiles and 31 drones launched from Russia, with targets including Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. In response, Russia claimed that Ukrainian drones caused damage in the southern city of Krasnodar. Ukraine's Defence Ministry labeled the attack a serious war crime, while Russia claimed to have targeted Ukrainian ammunition depots. 

On 26 May, Ukraine's defense ministry alleged that Russia intends to simulate a major nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia power station to impede Ukraine's planned counteroffensive. The ministry claimed Russia would shell the plant and fake a radiation leak, triggering an international investigation and halting hostilities. However, no evidence was provided, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not reported any disruption. Both sides have accused each other of planning provocative actions involving nuclear incidents in the past. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 26 May, Der Spiegel reported new evidence showing the links between the Ukrainian nationals and Nord Stream pipelines explosion. Ukrainian nationals rented a yacht reportedly used by the team of divers for the sabotage as per the metadata collected from the emails. The traces of explosives and fake documents used for hiring the yacht were also cited in the report. The involvement of Kyiv could be seen if the sabotage were carried out by Ukrainian commandos, the report said. 
 
On 26 May, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow would cut diplomatic ties with the UK. The action is a response to British involvement in "operational-tactical planning by the [Ukrainian] military, including sabotage, other operations, direct provision of cyber-security, [and] deployment of mercenaries" in Russia, the ministry stated. 
 
On 26 May, Financial Times reported that Gas consumption will decrease by sixty billion cubic meters this year compared to the average for the last five years. "More than the gas volumes we still foresee to import from Russia in 2023, both pipeline and [liquefied natural gas]," reads the document seen by the FT. This resulted from a series of emergency laws adopted by the fourteen EU countries last year in a bid to decrease the reliance on Russian supplies. 

The West View      
Responses from the US and Europe     
On 26 May, the CNN news reported that the attack on central Ukraine by Russia has sparked strong condemnation from Kyiv and its Western allies. According to a statement from the French Foreign Ministry: "France denounces the strikes as "war crimes" that must not go unpunished," emphasizing the deliberate targeting of civilian areas in violation of international humanitarian law. Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed outrage at the actions of Russian attacks and assured ongoing efforts to mitigate the aftermath and aid the victims. 
 
On 26 May, BBC news reported that the US had imposed sanctions on the local leader of the Wagner private military group in Mali, Ivan Maslov, citing concerns that the Russian mercenary group is attempting to acquire military equipment for the conflict in Ukraine through its activities in Mali and other African nations. The US treasury department has alleged that Wagner employees may be involved in procuring mines, drones, and radar equipment. Wagner has been providing support to Mali's military government in combating Islamist insurgents. The US claims that the group may exploit Mali's surplus of arms, acquired after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
 
On 26 May, Euronews reported that several European countries, including Slovenia, France, Belgium, and the UK, have recognized the Holodomor, a devastating famine in Ukraine during the Soviet era, as a genocide. This acknowledgment holds significance because it highlights the magnitude of the tragedy and the crimes committed against humanity. A member of Slovenia's Social Democrat party, Jani Prednik, described the Holodomor as one of the most significant humanitarian catastrophes and crimes of the 20th century. The UK's Conservative MP, Pauline Latham, drew parallels between the forced confiscation of crops during the famine and Russia's current seizure of Ukrainian grain on occupied Ukrainian soil, emphasizing the need to address war crimes and crimes against humanity. The interest in Soviet crimes targeting Ukrainians has grown since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as it brings attention to historical moments where Ukrainians were specifically targeted. However, legal experts caution that parliamentary declarations of genocide may not carry the same weight as court rulings. 
 
On 25 May, the Guardian reported on British officials' confirmation about Russian state assets likely to remain immobilized even after the war in Ukraine ends, until Russia agrees to pay compensation for the damage caused. The Council of Europe summit established a digital register of damage as a first step towards an international compensation mechanism for victims of Russian aggression. While the UK has been cautious about seizing Russian assets outright, an alternative strategy is emerging where assets are retained as leverage until Russia agrees to compensation. This approach aims to achieve the objective of funding Ukraine's reconstruction without breaching international law. Seizing rather than freezing assets is considered a violation of international law, but freezing them as a countermeasure to induce compliance and as leverage for negotiations is deemed permissible. Ukraine, however, argues for direct seizure of assets to prioritize justice over state immunity.
 
On 26 May, the EU strongly criticized the agreement between Russia and Belarus that allows for the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus. EU's High Representative of the Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, condemned the move, stating it would lead to a dangerous escalation. Borrell emphasized that this decision violated several international agreements and called on Russia to uphold its commitments. He also accused the Belarusian regime of supporting Russia's illegal aggression against Ukraine and urged Belarus to reverse its decisions and uphold sovereignty. 

The Global Fallouts
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 26 May, Tokyo imposed additional sanctions on Russia as a response to the Russian deal to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. It involves export ban to Russian military-related organizations and assets of individuals and organizations. Hirokazu said : "Japan's government demands Russia and Belarus stop actions that further escalate tensions as we continue to watch the development with strong concern."

References
James Waterhouse & Antoinette Radford, "Ukraine war: Russia destroys hospital in latest missile attack," BBC News, 27 May 2023; Olena Harmash and Max Hunder, "Russian attack on Ukrainian clinic kills two and wounds 30, Kyiv says," Reuters, 26 May 2023
"Ukraine says Russia plans to simulate accident at nuclear power plant," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"New Ukraine link in Nord Stream sabotage case – Der Spiegel," RTNews, 26, May 2023
"Russia could cut diplomatic ties with UK – Foreign Ministry to RT," RTNews, 26 May 2023
"EU gas consumption to fall sharply – FT," RTNews, 26 May 2023
Sana Noor Haq, Maria Kostenko, Sebastian Shukla and Joseph Ataman, "Deadly Russian strikes obliterate Dnipro medical facility in central Ukraine," CNN, 26 May 2023
"Wagner: US sanctions boss of mercenary group in Mali," BBC News, 26 May 2023
Una Hajdari, "European parliaments are recognising Ukraine's Soviet-era Holodomor famine as genocide. Why now?," Euronews, 26 May 2023
Patrick Wintour, "UK to keep Kremlin assets frozen until Russia pays compensation to Ukraine," The Guardian, 25 May 2023
"EU condemns Russian deal to station nuclear warheads in Belarus," Reuters, 27 May 2023
"Japan slams Russia-Belarus nuclear deal, slaps on sanctions," Euronews, 26 May 2023

IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

BELARUS
Rumors of a coup 
On 24 May, Russian State media RIA Novosti reported that "Information about the preparation of a coup in Belarus by the West has been confirmed in Poland." Various Russian and Belarusian newspapers reported on the same issue. The media said that Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak was behind the coup. Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko called the General, "sick." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov designated Poland, "an enemy state." In reality, the retired General Skrzypczak referred to the Belarusians fighting along with the Ukrainian troops in an interview with Polsat News. He said that if Kyiv's counteroffensive in Belgorod achieves its objectives, the Belarusian soldiers who fled after a crackdown on protests against Lukashenko will drag the war into Belarus. He added that Poland has to be prepared for the uprising in Belarus which will result in the immigration of Belarusians. (Tetyana Klug, "Fact check: False claims about plans for coup in Belarus," Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2023)
 
FINLAND
Parties arrive at a consensus as coalition talks progress
On 26 May, the National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo affirmed that all four parties are mutually supporting immigration and climate policies. Orpo won most seats in the elections in April 2023 and desired to establish a four-party coalition government. The Finns Party leader Riika Purra's initiative to conclude the talks on immigration and climate policies this week has resulted in the new development. (Essi Lehto, "Finnish coalition talks edge forward with progress on migration, climate," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
FRANCE
Trade unions on upbeat despite the controversial pension reforms
On 25 May, Economist observed that France's trade unions are upbeat despite the passing of the controversial pension reforms that became law in early 2023. It cites several reasons for this phenomenon which involves a change in leadership. In March, CGT, with close links to the communist party, elected Sophie Binet as its first woman leader in its 128 years. A green, feminist and from a white-collar union branch, she believes she can get the government to annul the new pension rules. Unions have called for the fourteenth one-day strike on 6 June. Feminization of leadership is underway in CFDT, France's biggest union also, as the leader Laurent Berger is going to be replaced by his deputy Marylise Leon. Rumours spread that Berger might enter politics. He, however, insists on not wanting to enter politics, but is keen on creating a political space between the radical left and Macron's "hyper-centre." If Berger enters politics, he could be a formidable challenger to any centrist successor of Immanuel Macron, says The Economist. ("Women take over France's powerful trade unions," The Economist, 25 May 2023)
 
GERMANY
Patriot system to Lithuania ahead of the NATO summit
On 26 May, the German Defence Ministry, in its statement, said that it would move its Slovakia-based Patriot system to Lithuania to safeguard a NATO summit scheduled in July in Vilnius ending its deployment. The Ministry also mentioned that it would remove supporting elements from Poland. Germany has been stationing two Patriot units in Slovakia and three in Poland. (Sabine Siebold and Cristoph Steitz, "Germany to move Slovakia-based Patriot system to Lithuania to protect NATO summit," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
SERBIA
Thousands gather at the "Serbia of Hope" in support of President Aleksandar Vucic
On 26 May, Reuters reported that thousands hailing from Serbia, neighbouring Bosnia and North Macedonia gathered in Belgrade for the "Serbia of Hope" rally in support of President Aleksandar Vucic. The rally comes after anti-government protests fueled against the President over two mass shootings that killed 18 people in early May 2023. The protestors, supported by the opposition parties, blamed the government led by Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party's failure to handle media that promote violence and eliminate criminal elements in the society. This instigated Vucic and his supporters to rally to showcase their power. He called his supporters to observe silence for a minute for the victims of the mass shooting and told them that he would resign as the party head on 27 May. (Ivana Sekularac and Marguerita Choy, "Tens of thousands gather in Serbia in Vucic's show of power," Reuters, 26 May 2023) 
 
TURKEY
Second round of elections on 28 May
On 27 May, the opposition Republican People's Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has so far been anti-migrant and has pledged to send back millions of refugees. The ruling Justice and Development Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Kilicdaroglu of colliding with the terrorist, Kurdish Workers' Party. He has affirmed Kilicdaroglu's rule will be equivalent to terrorist rule. As a last measure, Kilicadroglu took part in a YouTube live session for four hours. Kilicdaroglu is targeting youth who didn't vote in the first round of the election. With the third-place contender Sinan Ogan of ATA Alliance endorsing Erdogan and Victory Party's leader Umit Ozdag endorsing Kilicdaroglu, elections on 28 May will decide the fate of Turkey for the next five years. (Paul Kirby, "Turkish election: Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu clash in desperate race for votes," BBC News, 27 May 2023)
 
UKRAINE
Insight on pro-Ukrainian Russian militants
On 25 May, The Economist reported on the pro-Ukrainian militias who were a part of the cross-border raid into Belgorod on 22 May. The militias are the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion, based in Ukraine. According to the Russian Government, the militias are a part of the Ukrainian army but for the Ukrainian government, they are Russian dissidents. The Free Russia Legion works close with Ukraine's intelligence and the Russian Volunteer Corps is a far-right group that also works with Ukraine's Intelligence. Both the militias comprise anti-Russians. The spokesman of Ukraine's intelligence Andrei Chernak said that Ukraine will collaborate with everyone for its survival. On 23 May, the Russian Defence Ministry asserted that the militants were killed. ("Who are the militias raiding Russia's Belgorod region?" The Economist, 25 May 2023) 
 
REGIONAL
Western powers condemn Kosovo violence
On 26 May, Reuters reported that Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the US condemned Kosovo's decision to crack down upon the municipal buildings in the town of Zvecan in northern Kosovo. Protests were going on to prevent the newly elected ethnic Albanian mayor from entering his office following an election Kosovo Serbs boycotted. In a joint statement, they called upon the authorities to step back and de-escalate and coordinate with the EU mission EULEX and NATO mission KFOR. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic placed Serbia's army on full combat alert and ordered army units to move closer to the Kosovo border as tension rose in Zvecan, Serb majority town in Kosovo. (Elizabeth Piper and Frank Jack Daniel, "UK, France, Italy, Germany and US condemn Kosovo violence," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
EU and Pfizer to renegotiate COVID-19 vaccine contract
On 26 May, the European Commission and Pfizer renegotiated the contract for COVID-19 vaccines that the EU signed at the peak of the pandemic. The Commission announced that Pfizer would deliver the vaccines up to 2027 with a reduction of doses from 450 million due for delivery this year. The contract was first signed in May 2021, initially for 900 million doses with an option of renewal for another 900 million doses. Eventually, the bloc contracted about 1.1 billion doses worth EUR 21.5 billion, says Politico.eu, quoting Financial Times. The talks have been going on for over a year following stiff opposition from several Central and Eastern European countries. Poland even went to the extent of sending a letter to Pfizer's shareholders to pressurize the company to renegotiate the deal. According to Politico.eu, the extended negotiations raise the question of why such a long contract was signed without a clause to negotiate down the doses when the pandemic conditions changed. (Carlo Martuscelli, "EU and Pfizer renegotiate controversial vaccine contract," Politico.eu, 26 May 2023)
 
EU condemns Russian decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus
On 26 May, EU Foreign Policy chief Joseph Borrell, in a statement, condemned an agreement between Russia and Belarus that would allow the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus. He said: "This is a step which will lead to further extremely dangerous escalation." The statement comes after Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's announcement that he is signing the documents in Minsk. Putin first announced this plan in March 2023. Borrell further called upon Belarusian authorities to put an immediate end to their support of Russia's war aggression and threatened them with a "coordinated reaction." (Andrew Gray and Kristen Donovan, "EU condemns Russian deal to station nuclear warheads in Belarus," Reuters, 26 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
Prisoner swap between Iran and Germany
On 26 May, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian thanked Oman for mediating a prisoner swap between Iran and Germany. The Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi and German aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele arrived in Muscat and were returned to their respective countries. In January 2023, Vandecasteele was arrested under espionage charges and was sentenced to 40 years in prison and 74 lashes. According to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Vandecasteele spent 455 days in prison. The Belgian government arrested Assadi and sentenced 20 years in prison for planning a bomb attack on a France-based Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran. 
Belgian intelligence found that Assadi was working with Iran's intelligence. The National Council of Resistance accused Belgium of paying a "shameful ransom." ("Iran, Belgium conduct prisoner swap freeing aid worker, diplomat," Al Jazeera, 26 May 2023)